Vintage Rolex market during Great Recession of '08/'09?

[sutats]

You could always look up the watches' past hammer prices and whether they sold or not on Antiquorum.

[jfmiii]

would be helpful if the dealers who contributed to this thread let us know if they see a decrease in inquiries in the coming weeks should the stock market continue to correct. however, they may have a vested interest not to share that kind of information lol.

[QueueCumber]

I like how pure market panic is called a "correction" nowadays...

[sea-dweller]

Cannot recall the vintage prices, but I recall seeing 16610LV's selling for around $4,200-$4,500 USD.

[jedly1]

If the stock markets correct , which they have done before and I'm not entirely sure what the panic is about as that seems perfectly normal in the course of thing for them to go down as well as up , strange how this seems to come as news to some people , then what we will see is some people leave scared that the skies are falling ( some of the old timers will get the reference ) , and some guys who want tangibles taking money out of the market and buying watches ... All works out in the wash. Usually the only people who lose in either case are the nervous types that can't afford to hold an investment long term and aren't really collectors they are speculators .

[QueueCumber]

The market hasn't been stable for 7 years. During that time, emotional reactions more than statistical logic have caused large swings in the market values over short periods of time. Those aren't "corrections." People are reacting relatively blindly to any mildly suggestive data nowadays because of what happened in 2008. This is relatively new behavior in the overall history of world markets. even the Great Depression didn't have market panic reverberations that went on for this long after the initial events.

I think we are seeing the effects and power that ubiquitous media and information availability have on markets. It's actually quite scary how easy the markets can be manipulated with sentiment. Plus, it is also scary how computer controlled exchanges and interactions can instantaneously cause gigantic drops and increases in values based on algorithms that take into account sentiment based on that media information. Basically, the wide availability of information is reinforcing fear in the market investors, and fanning the panic.

[QueueCumber]

The truth is, if the markets go and tank big, it doesn't matter where you put your money. Watches, stocks, bonds, cars, gold, real estate, dollar bills, they all become useless if the market really tanks. So, put the money where you enjoy it, because it is all a house of cards built on the market economy underneath. If that goes, everything goes with it...

[Franks07]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

The truth is, if the markets go and tank big, it doesn't matter where you put your money. Watches, stocks, bonds, cars, gold, real estate, dollar bills, they all become useless if the market really tanks. So, put the money where you enjoy it, because it is all a house of cards built on the market economy underneath. If that goes, everything goes with it...

THIS...

[greekbum]

This time its different my friends..... Back then we had a weak US dollar and emerging market currencies along with the Euro were all screaming so buying depressed in the USA and selling overseas was great. Now we have a strong dollar...emerging markets are crushed or getting crushed. So the main buyer in the room is the USA with inventory comming from overseas. Only problem is I'm not sure the US consumer is a real watch buyer. Sure there are always buyers for super crisp rare watches.

[el1125]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

The truth is, if the markets go and tank big, it doesn't matter where you put your money. Watches, stocks, bonds, cars, gold, real estate, dollar bills, they all become useless if the market really tanks. So, put the money where you enjoy it, because it is all a house of cards built on the market economy underneath. If that goes, everything goes with it...

True. But in this event, I like many I would assume, would prefer cash over anything else.

[brandrea]

I'm not so sure that the luxury goods market is tied directly to market performance. Someone willing to buy and hold will outlast any market turmoil.

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I'm not so sure that the luxury goods market is tied directly to market performance. Someone willing to buy and hold will outlast any market turmoil.

You just contradicted yourself...

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I'm not so sure that the luxury goods market is tied directly to market performance.

i would wholeheartedly disagree with this.

[el1125]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

i would wholeheartedly disagree with this.

As would I

[statsman]

My anecdotal observation is that economic downturns don't impact the highest quality items as much as the less desired ones. For example- that Degas painting won't really drop in price as much as it won't keep inflating until things turn around again. However, that limited signed Degas lithograph may drop to a price you can handle, and would be a great long term pickup.

My guess is that the most desired vintage Rolexes in the best condition won't drop noticeably in cost. However, smaller high quality watch house vintage products might have some buying opportunities.

I am a tightwad. I find it helps to determine the value of an object to me. Then, if I see it at that price, no matter the economic outlook, I buy it.

[jfmiii]

This article flashed across my Bloomberg terminal last night and I think it is relevant to this discussion.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Art Collectors Were Busy in Market Rout Looking for Liquidity
2015-08-26 04:00:02.0 GMT


By Katya Kazakina
(Bloomberg) -- Art dealer Asher Edelman’s vacation in
Comporta, Portugal, was interrupted Monday by inquiries from
clients as global equities plunged.
Some asked about borrowing against their art collections
from Edelman’s art-financing company ArtAssure Ltd. Others
wanted to sell works. Everyone was looking for the same thing:
liquidity.
“There are many margin calls,” Edelman said in a phone
interview, adding that no deals were struck yet.
Boutique lenders said they were unusually busy in late
August, when most of the art world is on holiday. Global
equities and the art market have become intertwined as art
prices have soared and more wealthy buyers view their
collections as an investment they can borrow against.
“Ten years ago no one in the art market paid close
attention to these corrections in the stock market,” said
Elizabeth von Habsburg, managing director of Winston Art Group,
an independent art appraisal and advisory firm. “Now clients
respond immediately.”
In 2014, the art market surpassed its pre-recession high
with 51.2 billion euros ($54.1 billion) in global sales,
compared with 48 billion euros in 2007, according to the latest
figures by the European Fine Art Foundation. In May, a Pablo
Picasso painting fetched $179.4 million, the highest price ever
for a work at auction.

Next Test

With many galleries closed for vacation, the immediate
impact of the stock market’s selloff on prices and sales was
hard to gauge. New York’s semi-annual auctions in November will
be the next big test of the art market, dealers and lenders
said.
“The main question: Is this the correction everyone has
been waiting for?” said Ian Peck, founder and chief executive
officer of Art Capital Group, a New York-based firm that lends
against art and collectibles.
Global auction results in the first half of this year
slid 5.8 percent to $8.1 billion from the same period in
2014 because of weak sales in China, the U.K., France and
Germany, according to New York-based Artnet.
Art financing has expanded with the rest of the market as
investment banks including Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co.,
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. offer loans backed
by art to clients. In 2014, Winston Group did $1 billion worth
of appraisals for loans using art as collateral, double the
previous year, von Habsburg said.
“Collectors are finally realizing they can make their art
work as an asset that they can get liquidity out of” to pay off
other loans, buy a business, life insurance or more art, von
Habsburg said.

More Calls

While boutique firms like ArtAssure reported a higher
volume of art-related calls from clients on Monday, several
banks said they didn’t. During market corrections, banks
sometimes limit loans backed by art or add restrictions, said
Evan Beard, art and finance leader at Deloitte Consulting in New
York.
“When liquidity leaves the marketplace people will
consider art loans as an option to replace volatile margin
securities loans,” said John Arena, senior credit executive for
Bank of America’s Private Wealth Management Business. He said
his group -- which didn’t see a spike in art loan inquiries
Monday -- doesn’t limit its credit exposure to art loans during
market turmoil.

Iranian Artifacts

Edelman said his clients asked about the borrowing terms
against works ranging from Iranian artifacts to Andy Warhol
paintings. Several of Winston Group’s clients asked “what can
we put our money into that can increase in value in the next
year that’s not equities,” von Habsburg said.
Her recommendation: works for under $100,000 by midcareer
artists including Richard Aldrich and Yinka Shonibare, whom she
described as “really solid and talented.”
Frothier segments of the market will be riskier, lenders
said. Art Capital’s Peck said he recently inspected a collection
of hot emerging artists whose prices exploded in the past year
but recently started to cool off.
“The younger emerging market is very vulnerable,” he
said. “We will be more conservative than we were a month ago.”
Collectors aren’t the only ones looking for liquidity with
art-backed loans. Art Finance Partners, a New York-based firm,
was contacted on Monday by dealers looking to borrow money to
close private sales.

Pissaro Sale

In one instance, market uncertainty spurred the seller of a
painting by Camille Pissaro, with the asking price of about
$500,000, to close the transaction with a dealer, who will use a
loan to buy the work, said Andrew Rose, president of Art Finance
Partners.
The selloff on Monday erased $2.7 trillion from the value
of global equities. Volatility continued to jolt financial
markets after an earlier rebound on Tuesday.
With the deadlines to consign art for the November auctions
coming up, some collectors have decided to sell works rather
than wait.
“Some are pulling the trigger,” Rose said. “People want
certainty.”

For Related News and Information:
Was This a Flash Crash? And Other Questions About Monday’s Swoon
Global Art Sales Hit Record $54 Billion, Led by U.S. Buyers

To contact the reporter on this story:
Katya Kazakina in New York at +1-212-617-4837 or
kkazakina@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Christian Baumgaertel at +1-617-210-4624 or
cbaumgaertel@bloomberg.net
Mary Romano, Vincent Bielski

[NyOO768]

Very insightful!! Thank you guys!!!

[ndsleep612]

The most memorable watch "correction" from the 08/09 crisis was the collapse of the steel Daytona (ref. 16520/116520) speculation. For all the guys that were in this hobby from back then, you'll remember how it was a PITA just to source a new steel Daytona without the speculator "premium". Then, when the sky started falling, all those speculators got crushed and were never heard from again. This lead to the current situation of readily available steel Daytonas at or near retail cost.

[Dsaltydog]

Purchased the majority of mine in that period...................

[statsman]

Here is a strategy I have followed in rare book collecting- know what item you want, exactly, and decide what price you would be willing to pay for it (presumably less than its current market price). Some crazy economic stuff happens and prices drop. When the price on your desired object falls to what you pre-decided you would be willing to pay- buy it. Don't let it pass, thinking prices will drop more (they might; they might not), or that you might be a sucker. I have never regretted a purchase made that way and am proud of most of them.

[jfmiii]

question for anyone following this thread:

have you put any watch purchases on hold as a result of current financial market volatility?

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

question for anyone following this thread:

have you put any watch purchases on hold as a result of current financial market volatility?

No.

BTW, the market drop is all emotional volatility right now. There is no reason for it to have dropped this much. China? Give me a break, their market really has very little bearing on our market. What's sad is that the emotional reactivity in our market is putting tremendous power to manipulate our markets in the hands of a market whose numbers are predominantly controlled by a corrupt system.

That's not to say that the emotional volitity isn't real and hurting the market. It is hurting the market unnecessarily quite a bit.

[springer]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

question for anyone following this thread:

have you put any watch purchases on hold as a result of current financial market volatility?

No. Purchased two today.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

No.

BTW, the market drop is all emotional volatility right now. There is no reason for it to have dropped this much. China? Give me a break, their market really has very little bearing on our market. What's sad is that the emotional reactivity in our market is putting tremendous power to manipulate our markets in the hands of a market whose numbers are predominantly controlled by a corrupt system.

That's not to say that the emotional volitity isn't real and hurting the market. It is hurting the market unnecessarily quite a bit.

You just contradicted yourself

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by brandrea

You just contradicted yourself

How so?

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by GB-man

How so?

China has a huge bearing on our market. I'd say that's a huge contradiction.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by QueueCumber

No.

BTW, the market drop is all emotional volatility right now. There is no reason for it to have dropped this much. China? Give me a break, their market really has very little bearing on our market. What's sad is that the emotional reactivity in our market is putting tremendous power to manipulate our markets in the hands of a market whose numbers are predominantly controlled by a corrupt system.

That's not to say that the emotional volitity isn't real and hurting the market. It is hurting the market unnecessarily quite a bit.

the mkt can stay irrational far longer than you or i can remain solvent. all that matters is the tape. and to discount "emotion's" role in pricing of stocks is completely missing the point; whether apple trades at a 10 or 20 P/E is directly influenced by investors perception of the future. regardless, this is getting a bit off topic. i work in the market and dont need to have a discourse on why stocks are rallying or selling off. im more interested on what upper-middle to upper class watch collectors thoughts are regarding their discretionary spending vis a vis the vintage Rolex market, given that many here view vintage Rolex as an "investment." im of the opinion that many upper middle class collectors who have a significant portion of their net worth in the stock market, will hold off on paying $10k for a vintage GMT during times of equity volatility. i could be wrong, but it would be interesting to hear some anecdotal evidence that confirms or refutes this.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by springer

No. Purchased two today.

john, were they individual collectors or dealers? if individuals, did they seem more willing to make a deal than you would have expected, say, 2 weeks ago?

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by GB-man

How so?

He's just using big words he doesn't understand...

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

the mkt can stay irrational far longer than you or i can remain solvent. all that matters is the tape. and to discount "emotion's" role in pricing of stocks is completely missing the point; whether apple trades at a 10 or 20 P/E is directly influenced by investors perception of the future. regardless, this is getting a bit off topic. i work in the market and dont need to have a discourse on why stocks are rallying or selling off. im more interested on what upper-middle to upper class watch collectors thoughts are regarding their discretionary spending vis a vis the vintage Rolex market, given that many here view vintage Rolex as an "investment." im of the opinion that many upper middle class collectors who have a significant portion of their net worth in the stock market, will hold off on paying $10k for a vintage GMT during times of equity volatility. i could be wrong, but it would be interesting to hear some anecdotal evidence that confirms or refutes this.

Perception is reality for sure, but it is still irrational in this case.

Wealthy collectors will likely keep buying pieces if they are available because they don't put all their money in the market, and even if they did they can always buy pieces on margin and then pay the interest until the market recovers. But, then again, it depends on how you define wealthy. I would say someone who is wealthy doesn't necessarily worry about the market dips like these...