Asian Watch Market Collapse

[rr-nyc]

The people saying no are either in denial or have no idea. Those are the one's always get hit the hardest

The entire ultra luxury market has been down for 6+ months. This includes watch brands like Rolex. The big money in Asia, South America, and Russia have stopped spending money on luxury items and hoarding cash or precious metals and stones.

[Kryptofresh]

I wonder when it is going to hit bottom, I'd rather not pick up a used piece and lose a lot of value within the next couple of years.

[Hpozzuoli]

I would love a collapse in the global high end watch trade. I would go on a shopping spree

[Kryptofresh]

so looks like it's been taking a pretty big beating.

[TheBluePrince]

Japan at +35% for Jan '16, I don't get that, their economy isn't great either and that's a huge increase.

[evlkoala]

Thank you Gaijin, very good info.

[howtohowto]

Originally Posted by TheBluePrince

Japan at +35% for Jan '16, I don't get that, their economy isn't great either and that's a huge increase.

It's the Chinese tourists and their habit of "explosive buying". Instead of Hong Kong, they now do their shopping in Japan.

[Lordofrolex]

well hopefully i can get a good priced AP ROO

[mfer]

I need to go to China and buy a 116619.

[goin camping]

Originally Posted by Hpozzuoli

I would love a collapse in the global high end watch trade. I would go on a shopping spree

Sadly the high end watch market would not crash on its own. bigger things will crash first. After those fall you may not be in a position to buy a high end watch even at 80% off.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by howtohowto

It's the Chinese tourists and their habit of "explosive buying". Instead of Hong Kong, they now do their shopping in Japan.

and that seems to be slowing down. The weather is perfect now and the tourist places and tour buses seems empty. Was not like this last year. Even during cherry blossom season there were less tourists it seemed than last year in the park and I went everyday for over two weeks. My favorite time of the year!

[cpark]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

To answer your question. Yes.

Well. Let's put it this way. I am making less now doing the exact same job that I was doing 30 years ago here. Back then on a late Friday or Saturday night you couldn't get a taxi home after last train. Every business man seemed to have a work paid taxi account, an expense account at a hostess bar ( or several) and a private golf club membership. Those days are gone.

Kids being recruited by companies while still in college. Incentives. Fighting over graduates. Now students are happy if they can get a full time job. The so called lost generation. 失われた10年

Wages are completely stagnant. People are hoarding any cash they have. Banks pay 0% interest. That being said you can get a home loan for 1% or less. Incredible!

There is absolutely no inflation. Prices just stay the same for years and years. The sales tax was raised from 8% to 10% to pay off debt and there was such a backlash from the populace that it was delayed in being implemented. Just prior to it taking effect there was a consumer spike. Since a downturn in consumer spending. I love Japan and it's my home away from home. I don't know what the answer is. The Japanese people work themselves literally to death. Karoushi. (Death from overwork.)

People jump in front of commuter trains here daily. Not weekly. Daily. Lost hope in this economy. I count my lucky stars every day to have a job here. The newest phenomenon is hikikimori ( the cave dwellers.) Kids that somewhere along the line during the brutally competitive educational process give up and refuse to leave their bedrooms. They have no hope of finding a job. They just give up. Parents bring them their meals and leave them outside their bedroom door. This has been going on for so long that many of them are adults with aging parents. The authorities worry how these kids will survive once their parents die. A few dreary documentaries on it online if anyone is interested.


Prime Minister Abe is doing the best he can. Japan has never recovered from their real estate/stock market bubble crash in the early 90s.

Same fundamentals that I see in China now. The Chinese are paying cash for properties here site unseen. Trying to get any wealth they have out before the inevitable crash. The tour buses here used to be packed with Chinese. The watch shops too. Not seeing that so much.

Sadly, I don't see Japan recovering. Neither do the Japanese. Sorry for the long winded post. I really only scratched the surface. Great country. Great people doing their best.

As someone who has a degree in Asian Studies and who has lived in Korea and Japan, I 100% agree with everything you've said. This is probably the most honest and accurate post about Japan's economy that I've ever read.

[Viv Savage]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

To answer your question. Yes.

Well. Let's put it this way. I am making less now doing the exact same job that I was doing 30 years ago here. Back then on a late Friday or Saturday night you couldn't get a taxi home after last train. Every business man seemed to have a work paid taxi account, an expense account at a hostess bar ( or several) and a private golf club membership. Those days are gone.

Kids being recruited by companies while still in college. Incentives. Fighting over graduates. Now students are happy if they can get a full time job. The so called lost generation. 失われた10年

Wages are completely stagnant. People are hoarding any cash they have. Banks pay 0% interest. That being said you can get a home loan for 1% or less. Incredible!

There is absolutely no inflation. Prices just stay the same for years and years. The sales tax was raised from 8% to 10% to pay off debt and there was such a backlash from the populace that it was delayed in being implemented. Just prior to it taking effect there was a consumer spike. Since a downturn in consumer spending. I love Japan and it's my home away from home. I don't know what the answer is. The Japanese people work themselves literally to death. Karoushi. (Death from overwork.)

People jump in front of commuter trains here daily. Not weekly. Daily. Lost hope in this economy. I count my lucky stars every day to have a job here. The newest phenomenon is hikikimori ( the cave dwellers.) Kids that somewhere along the line during the brutally competitive educational process give up and refuse to leave their bedrooms. They have no hope of finding a job. They just give up. Parents bring them their meals and leave them outside their bedroom door. This has been going on for so long that many of them are adults with aging parents. The authorities worry how these kids will survive once their parents die. A few dreary documentaries on it online if anyone is interested.


Prime Minister Abe is doing the best he can. Japan has never recovered from their real estate/stock market bubble crash in the early 90s.

Same fundamentals that I see in China now. The Chinese are paying cash for properties here site unseen. Trying to get any wealth they have out before the inevitable crash. The tour buses here used to be packed with Chinese. The watch shops too. Not seeing that so much.

Sadly, I don't see Japan recovering. Neither do the Japanese. Sorry for the long winded post. I really only scratched the surface. Great country. Great people doing their best.

Thanks for an interesting insight.

[TheVTCGuy]

Gaijin, thanks for the great info. I don't have as much insight as you, but having worked for Sony for 12 years I have visited Japan many times and experienced some of it myself. My ex boss, left Sony last year and went to work for a Chinese company; that lasted six months. He is by far the most renown expert in his (our) field, and has been out of work for the last half a year. This never would have happened a few years ago.

[Rock]

Things are similar all over. Here in Australia governments have allowed the Federal Reserve to steadily reduce the official interest rate, encouraging banks to reduce borrowing rates and lend irresponsibly to people who could not afford a loan at 'normal' rates. They have learned nothing from the pre-GFC scenario in the US.
They cannot now increase rates as to do so would burst the housing bubble and throw hundreds of thousands into bankruptcy which would trigger a major recession.
In the meantime, those who depend upon a fixed income are finding that they are asset-rich but income-poor. These are the people who would normally be buying watches and keeping a range of discretionary spending going.
The world is in a hell of a mess.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by cpark

As someone who has a degree in Asian Studies and who has lived in Korea and Japan, I 100% agree with everything you've said. This is probably the most honest and accurate post about Japan's economy that I've ever read.

Thank you Sir.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by Rock

Things are similar all over. Here in Australia governments have allowed the Federal Reserve to steadily reduce the official interest rate, encouraging banks to reduce borrowing rates and lend irresponsibly to people who could not afford a loan at 'normal' rates. They have learned nothing from the pre-GFC scenario in the US.
They cannot now increase rates as to do so would burst the housing bubble and throw hundreds of thousands into bankruptcy which would trigger a major recession.
In the meantime, those who depend upon a fixed income are finding that they are asset-rich but income-poor. These are the people who would normally be buying watches and keeping a range of discretionary spending going.
The world is in a hell of a mess.

Spot on. I pulled about 75% of my retirement assets out of the market recently and put it all into fixed. I think worldwide the stock market is about to implode. I get 2.8 soon 2.9 % fixed which is plenty and I can sleep at night. Was hoping for an interest rate hike or two. We will see if that happens.


I am in the market for a condo here. Interest rates are so low it's almost free money. The banks here want your business too. However I'm holding off a bit in the purchase because in combination with a stock market crash will come a housing crash. The Chinese were flooding cash purchasers in the beautiful city where I live. For the last 3-4 years. Prices skyrocketed. That has really slowed . The Chinese government is restricting the amount of wealth that can be sent out of the country to preserve the country from being bled dry. The Yuan is also going to crash. It's gonna be ugly.

[Ruud Van Driver]

I was just thinking of putting my hunting boots on again. Maybe now is not such a good time and I should think about hanging fire for a bit

The offshore and oil side of business here in Singapore is not good right now. In fact, shipping in general is on a global slide which is not good.

[zama]

I know I will sound like a socialist on this right wing forum, but as a child of the heady 80's when the world was in boom who came out of university in the middle of a recession in 1991, I really think the days of boom and bust are gone. In truth we have been in constant gloom for at least 15 years, only propped up buy the energy and enthusiasm of China. The chinese continue to buy properties here in Australia and are now our dominant trading and tourism partner (we would be dead without them). Having been in the corporate world for 20 odd years, and watching the consolidation of wealth in a way that is reminiscent of Europe in the 1600's, the rich are destroying the fabric of life with their unprecedented greed.

Most people (95% of the population) accept their lives are in decline, to some of the comments above people are working harder to have less...... Meanwhile a handful of executives are pumping short term profits for their own income schemes which are now weighted 90%+ to shares and options (all with a short term focus).

These mega rich have elaborate tax avoidance schemes through trusts so the poor schmucks who are in $50-100K p.a. jobs have to pick up the tax burden.

And if you think it is bad now, the greediest generation in history the baby boomers are now hitting retirement and they will demand from their Super funds optimal returns which will only reflect more on Super funds pressuring execs at big corporate to pump prime the share prices even harder.

First priority for governments the world over is to get major companies and their high end owners to pay tax like the rest of us. The art of shifting profits through tax havens around the world is a disgrace. If something is not done the environment for another extreme left wing uprising such as Hitler will occur again.

The average Joe in the street now is trying to save every dollar they can largely from fear, the excitement and risk of the 80's is gone sadly, and people's willingness to spend our way out of recession is obvious. To Rock's point in Australia every dollar is now spent just trying to be in the property market, those of us in obviously don't want prices to go down, but it is not sustainable for the future generations. I feel sorry for the Millenials, the future if you are 20 today is not looking great, jobs disappearing companies ruthlessly chasing profit over investing for the future. No chance to get into the property market, and generations of qualified other young people who are already stocked up in the line of people with limited futures.

[Wesley Crusher]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

The newest phenomenon is hikikimori ( the cave dwellers.) Kids that somewhere along the line during the brutally competitive educational process give up and refuse to leave their bedrooms. They have no hope of finding a job. They just give up. Parents bring them their meals and leave them outside their bedroom door. This has been going on for so long that many of them are adults with aging parents. The authorities worry how these kids will survive once their parents die. A few dreary documentaries on it online if anyone is interested.

I have never heard of such a thing. So interesting/weird/sad at the same time.

[68camaro]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

To answer your question. Yes.

Well. Let's put it this way. I am making less now doing the exact same job that I was doing 30 years ago here. Back then on a late Friday or Saturday night you couldn't get a taxi home after last train. Every business man seemed to have a work paid taxi account, an expense account at a hostess bar ( or several) and a private golf club membership. Those days are gone.

Kids being recruited by companies while still in college. Incentives. Fighting over graduates. Now students are happy if they can get a full time job. The so called lost generation. 失われた10年

Wages are completely stagnant. People are hoarding any cash they have. Banks pay 0% interest. That being said you can get a home loan for 1% or less. Incredible!

There is absolutely no inflation. Prices just stay the same for years and years. The sales tax was raised from 8% to 10% to pay off debt and there was such a backlash from the populace that it was delayed in being implemented. Just prior to it taking effect there was a consumer spike. Since a downturn in consumer spending. I love Japan and it's my home away from home. I don't know what the answer is. The Japanese people work themselves literally to death. Karoushi. (Death from overwork.)

People jump in front of commuter trains here daily. Not weekly. Daily. Lost hope in this economy. I count my lucky stars every day to have a job here. The newest phenomenon is hikikimori ( the cave dwellers.) Kids that somewhere along the line during the brutally competitive educational process give up and refuse to leave their bedrooms. They have no hope of finding a job. They just give up. Parents bring them their meals and leave them outside their bedroom door. This has been going on for so long that many of them are adults with aging parents. The authorities worry how these kids will survive once their parents die. A few dreary documentaries on it online if anyone is interested.


Prime Minister Abe is doing the best he can. Japan has never recovered from their real estate/stock market bubble crash in the early 90s.

Same fundamentals that I see in China now. The Chinese are paying cash for properties here site unseen. Trying to get any wealth they have out before the inevitable crash. The tour buses here used to be packed with Chinese. The watch shops too. Not seeing that so much.

Sadly, I don't see Japan recovering. Neither do the Japanese. Sorry for the long winded post. I really only scratched the surface. Great country. Great people doing their best.

Gaijin, very thoughtful response, thank you. It'a shame Japan is into the second lost decade of no growth. Unfortunately our Ph'd central bankers forgot that people have option at hoarding their money at low to negative rates as opposed to spending it, now we have war on cash to get people to spend it.

Globally we are on a tough course with no end in sight - at least not a good one.

[malarky_hk]

This supposed collapse in the market still hasn't resulted in discounts at the local Rolex ADs in HK. None would budge aside from the standard 5% discount.

[armen34]

this possible collapse isn't imminent. No one can really predict when it will come, but there are definitely some signs out there, just keep your eyes open.

[Abdullah71601]

There are much lower numbers of Chinese shoppers here in the UAE. Not long ago they were queuing out the door at LV and other designer boutiques. Now, they are noticeably absent.

The Rolex boutiques have told me that the Russian market is recovering, but the Chinese market is still waning.

[superdog]

I'm 42, but I'm invested so conservatively, it's as if I was 65. And I just instructed my FA to lean towards even safer avenues.

Vast majority is all funds for me.

This is also why I am so determined to live with no debt.

Looking around, I too see a meltdown on the way. I'm kicking save mode into high gear.

[Rock]

In Australia, governments created a dependence on the Chinese market for our natural resources without any real plan for an end or reduction in that demand. Consequently the economy has taken a huge hit as a result of the greatly reduced demand.
More recently the property market has luxuriated in the influx of foreign capital (again Chinese) in both high-end domestic and commercial property without any thought for the inflationary impact on property prices, and the implications when the demand faltered.
I think we are very short-sighted in this country and are about to face some harsh realities.

[armen34]

Look at the 2008/2009 crash, people knew something was seriously wrong in late 2006-2007, but it took about 2 years to really see anything serious happen.

[NoRush]

There is great insight in all the collective comments from everyone. Here in IL it is the drag of growing taxes of all kinds that is stealing all the oxygen from the economy. When property taxes are due, business of all kinds get hit as there is nothing extra left to spend that month since the local governments crimp everyone's available cash flow with their huge bills.

[bayerische]

I'm not sure if I'm the only one thinking this way, but I wouldn't mind a bit of "sobering-up" when it comes to watches.

[benlee]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

To answer your question. Yes.

People jump in front of commuter trains here daily. Not weekly. Daily. Lost hope in this economy. I count my lucky stars every day to have a job here. The newest phenomenon is hikikimori ( the cave dwellers.) Kids that somewhere along the line during the brutally competitive educational process give up and refuse to leave their bedrooms. They have no hope of finding a job. They just give up. Parents bring them their meals and leave them outside their bedroom door. This has been going on for so long that many of them are adults with aging parents. The authorities worry how these kids will survive once their parents die. A few dreary documentaries on it online if anyone is interested.

This is so sad to read... Japan esp Tokyo is my favourite holiday destination. Didn't know things are so bad there already.