Is $20,000 The New Price For Rolex SS

[thomaspp]

should be at least $40k

[richard371]

Good point but I’m starting to wonder if Rolex is trying to push their line closer to Patek by making the SS models more exclusive by lowering the production etc and trying to move the Tudor line for the masses wanting a good SS watch.

Rolex is clearly cutting production here or the desire for SS Rolexes has gone nuts recently.

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Perfectly written.

I've been saying it a long time but I really hope the market goes back to normal and the people pushing these prices will take a big hit.

Greys are ruining the market.

[Stevec14]

Originally Posted by dmash

You guys are living in a complete bubble if you think all Rolex SS is going to $20k . You do realize the average Rolex buyer needs to save for quite some time to even afford one? A normal Sub owner is absolutely not whipping around in his 911 and sipping fine wine, this forum is the .0001% with some of the guys on here. An extra $10k is not only a big deal to the average individual, it’s a complete deal breaker.

Absolutely, 100% no way are normal Sub and GMT going that high. Not enough people to fuel that kind of demand, not even close to it. Sure, there’s exceptions like the extremely limited DaytonaC, but it’s already $12k retail to begin with, and is an exception.

Not sure what you call ‘average’ or what you base it on but there are many more people with £10k burning a hole in their pockets than ever before it would seem. Less people save. More buy on tick. It’s what is happening whether you like it or not (and it seems you don’t).

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Perfectly written.

I've been saying it a long time but I really hope the market goes back to normal and the people pushing these prices will take a big hit.

Greys are ruining the market.

Looking forward to it myself, I can’t stand these new trend kickers ruining something I’ve loved. And I’ve only been into watches for about 10 years (as I’m only in my late 20s). I can’t inagine how guys feel who are older than me

Originally Posted by Stevec14

Not sure what you call ‘average’ or what you base it on but there are many more people with £10k burning a hole in their pockets than ever before it would seem. Less people save. More buy on tick. It’s what is happening whether you like it or not (and it seems you don’t).

Sure Steve, we’ll see. I stand by my opinion that one needs to put down the crack pipe if he or she thinks people are going to start buying Rolex at $20k by the masses. That is Patek pricing a few years ago, that most considered completely unattainable. You do realize the average salary of an individual in the US and UK? $20k is not some small figure, this forum simply gives the illusion it is.

[Stevec14]

Originally Posted by dmash

Looking forward to it myself, I can’t stand these new trend kickers ruining something I’ve loved. And I’ve only been into watches for about 10 years (as I’m only in my late 20s). I can’t inagine how guys feel who are older than me



Sure Steve, we’ll see. I stand by my opinion that one needs to put down the crack pipe if he or she thinks people are going to start buying Rolex at $20k by the masses. That is Patek pricing a few years ago, that most considered completely unattainable. You do realize the average salary of an individual in the US and UK? $20k is not some small figure, this forum simply gives the illusion it is.

Absolutely. I do indeed know that. I also know that most ‘average’ families have 2 cars on the drive. In many cases these days costing more than their annual income.

I’m not saying I’m right, and I’m not saying you are wrong. I am saying that the world is sillier than ever before with years of cheap money and I don’t suspect this will change until rates rise (one reason they are saying they won’t is high levels of debt....).

It is what it is....

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Stevec14

Absolutely. I do indeed know that. I also know that most ‘average’ families have 2 cars on the drive. In many cases these days costing more than their annual income.

I’m not saying I’m right, and I’m not saying you are wrong. I am saying that the world is sillier than ever before with years of cheap money and I don’t suspect this will change until rates rise (one reason they are saying they won’t is high levels of debt....).

It is what it is....

I can’t argue with you there.

I still am of the opinion we will have a large market crash in the foreseeable future and that will definitely affect the Rolex market as well. Perhaps not below MSRP, but if a legitimate crash comes, people paying above MSRP for a basic SS Rolex will be no longer.

Perhaps I’m just a bit salty because I see new luxury watch owners pop up sporting a Rolex, who flat out made fun of people wearing expensive watches 2-3 years ago. The trend is at an all time high, and I’m ready for it to crash. I would love for more people to actually like watches, but I know with absolute certainty they’re selling that piece when it’s no longer ‘hot’. I think a lot of people are overlooking this aspect too. Grey market is going to drop like flies when it’s not trendy to post your Rolex on IG anymore and all the cool kids decide to sell their pickups in the masses.

I (and my younger brother) are in the age range of most of these new owners. Buying these watches right now is the equivalent of picking up a hot pair of sneakers, a new electronic gizmo or a cool duffle. It’s simply a trend accessory to them, nothing more. They’ve flat out told me they’d sell their watch in a heartbeat it if wasn’t ‘in’ anymore. And like every ‘hot’ thing since the beginning of time, it has a finite time span. These people are not long term standstills in the watch market, they will leave it entirely within the next years.

At least this is my logic, for which I’m a complete believer

[Stevec14]

Originally Posted by dmash

I can’t argue with you there.

I still am of the opinion we will have a large market crash in the foreseeable future and that will definitely affect the Rolex market as well. Perhaps not below MSRP, but if a legitimate crash comes, people paying above MSRP for a basic SS Rolex will be no longer.

Perhaps I’m just a bit salty because I see new luxury watch owners pop up sporting a Rolex, who flat out made fun of people wearing expensive watches 2-3 years ago. The trend is at an all time high, and I’m ready for it to crash. I would love for more people to actually like watches, but I know with absolute certainty they’re selling that piece when it’s no longer ‘hot’. I think a lot of people are overlooking this aspect too. Grey market is going to drop like flies when it’s not trendy to post your Rolex on IG anymore and all the cool kids decide to sell their pickups in the masses.

I agree, I really do. But I think you shouldn’t sweat it. It is what it is. When the grey market falls, other will too. Personally, I don’t think it will but let’s see what happens.

You sound like you have an issue with other owning Rolex? Why? Their enthusiasm surely only helps your investment???

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Stevec14

I agree, I really do. But I think you shouldn’t sweat it. It is what it is. When the grey market falls, other will too. Personally, I don’t think it will but let’s see what happens.

You sound like you have an issue with other owning Rolex? Why? Their enthusiasm surely only helps your investment???

Meh, it’s not even Rolex, it’s all luxury watch brands. I don’t know, I’ve just always appreciated horology and to hear these people claim it’s just a fashion accessory and they’re selling it off once it’s no longer cool, sort of gets under my skin. I realize that’s probably a little petty, but can’t help to feel that way.

For example take the 5711. I loved that watch since I could only afford a Citizen. Honestly, I could probably buy one (at MSRP) within the next 1-2 years if I wanted to and now that’s completely out of the question due to current hype. And not because a bunch of watch guys have also established it’s an incredible timepiece, but because a whorde of ridiculous hip hop artists and other celebrities have started talking about Patek. Aggravating.

Alas, life goes on

[VicLeChic]

Who pays 20K for a modern steel Rolex when you can buy it in gold for "a bit" more?

Perhaps someone who buys as an investment, not to wear the piece? Someone speculating and taking the view that demand is relentless with worldwide economy soaring while offer is kept artificially low. Someone who sees it as pure commodity and knows steel is more liquid than gold and retains value better.

Then imagine for a second that Rolex decide to change their strategy, ramp up sports steel production and kill grey sellers and speculators in the process?

If prices get this crazy, I think the vast majority of clients interested in steel (middle and upper middle class perhaps) and whom buy to wear, not to gamble, will have to look elsewhere for their next piece.

[MinMay]

I sense a lot of middle/upper middle class joining the club to flip them. If they see an opportunity to make money, they'll play it. They have no intention of spending 10K to wear it :) . I'm sure they have heavy expenses that required their money.

I can guarantee that people are visiting AD soon putting their name on the waitlist for Pepsi with NO intention of keeping it.

People who park their money in watch is not smart money. The new buyers are in it to profit...not to invest.

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Not for me - at that price, I'm going PM.

Absolutely!!!

[MoosicPa]

It being the first week the new GMT Pepsi in SS is released, and this being the first on the grey market, it was at a premium for someone who wanted to be the first on the block to own one. In 6 to 12 months look at the prices on the grey market as they start to make their way through the system. I guess they will be at a mark-up but not at $20k. Some people are willing to pay for the privilege to be the "First".

[jvd99]

Originally Posted by dmash

I can’t argue with you there.

Perhaps I’m just a bit salty because I see new luxury watch owners pop up sporting a Rolex, who flat out made fun of people wearing expensive watches 2-3 years ago. The trend is at an all time high, and I’m ready for it to crash. I would love for more people to actually like watches, but I know with absolute certainty they’re selling that piece when it’s no longer ‘hot’. I think a lot of people are overlooking this aspect too. Grey market is going to drop like flies when it’s not trendy to post your Rolex on IG anymore and all the cool kids decide to sell their pickups in the masses.

People have been waiting for the Pappy Van Winkle madness to crash for 7-8 years now and the secondary market prices keep going up, up, up. There's always some guy out there who will drop $2K on a $100 bottle of bourbon and he's the same guy paying 20 g's for a SS Pepsi.

[AK797]

Demand on some models is now so far ahead of supply that these are the prices, until Rolex match up supply this gulf will be priced into the market as with any. Or as Dmash says the SM trend for Rolexes falls away but can't see what will replace it at the mid lux level so looks unlikely.

[EDL7]

Its market related..when the market dives..flops or crashes..so will the prices..
Not enough people out there during bad times to support 20K per piece watches..at a million produced per year..
In fact..there will be a sell off at that point...thats the time to buy..when the used market for Rolex will be a glut..

[AK797]

Originally Posted by dmash

Meh, it’s not even Rolex, it’s all luxury watch brands. I don’t know, I’ve just always appreciated horology and to hear these people claim it’s just a fashion accessory and they’re selling it off once it’s no longer cool, sort of gets under my skin. I realize that’s probably a little petty, but can’t help to feel that way.

For example take the 5711. I loved that watch since I could only afford a Citizen. Honestly, I could probably buy one (at MSRP) within the next 1-2 years if I wanted to and now that’s completely out of the question due to current hype. And not because a bunch of watch guys have also established it’s an incredible timepiece, but because a whorde of ridiculous hip hop artists and other celebrities have started talking about Patek. Aggravating.

Alas, life goes on

I agree, must be an awful time for so many who have been saving and planning to then be totally usurped by the hypebeasts and speculators. I used to have this a few years ago when I had been planning and budgeting for a watch and hoping a sudden price rise wasn't going to ruin my best laid plans, but this is on another level.

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

[dmash]

Originally Posted by AK797

I agree, must be an awful time for so many who have been saving and planning to then be totally usurped by the hypebeasts and speculators.

Yeah I mean another 1-2 grand on top of $8500 for a Sub? No problem, not bothered. But to go up 20 THOUSAND DOLLARS over MSRP? When the watch is only $30k to begin with? Just mind boggling to be honest.

[mjolnir2thor]

Originally Posted by dmash

You guys are living in a complete bubble if you think all Rolex SS is going to $20k . You do realize the average Rolex buyer needs to save for quite some time to even afford one? A normal Sub owner is absolutely not whipping around in his 911 and sipping fine wine, this forum is the .0001% with some of the guys on here. An extra $10k is not only a big deal to the average individual, it’s a complete deal breaker.

Absolutely, 100% no way are normal Sub and GMT going that high. Not enough people to fuel that kind of demand, not even close to it. Sure, there’s exceptions like the extremely limited DaytonaC, but it’s already $12k retail to begin with, and is an exception.

That’s my thinking as well. Well written!

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by VicLeChic

Who pays 20K for a modern steel Rolex when you can buy it in gold for "a bit" more?

Perhaps someone who buys as an investment, not to wear the piece? Someone speculating and taking the view that demand is relentless with worldwide economy soaring while offer is kept artificially low. Someone who sees it as pure commodity and knows steel is more liquid than gold and retains value better.

Then imagine for a second that Rolex decide to change their strategy, ramp up sports steel production and kill grey sellers and speculators in the process?

If prices get this crazy, I think the vast majority of clients interested in steel (middle and upper middle class perhaps) and whom buy to wear, not to gamble, will have to look elsewhere for their next piece.

I don't think people paying the premium are buying as "investments". Just people who have enough f*** off money to get what they want, when they want it. It's pretty simple.

I certainly don't have f*** off money, but I paid a premium for my Daytona. It's a really special watch to me. It's probably the last time i'll pay a premium like that ever again. So for me it was a one time thing that was well worth it in the cost to enjoyment ratio.

But I do agree, I think if things stay as they are many many enthusiasts will move on to other brands.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by dmash

Yeah I mean another 1-2 grand on top of $8500 for a Sub? No problem, not bothered. But to go up 20 THOUSAND DOLLARS over MSRP? When the watch is only $30k to begin with? Just mind boggling to be honest.

Unfortunately it's the 1% or even the 0.01% who rule the world and now they've got their talons into our hobby.

[RollieRoll]

What do you guys think of CRM selling the RG GMT at 45k?! That's almost 10k over MSRP on a PM watch! I believe DSW sold his at almost 42k.

With PM large discounts not being the norm sports models makes things tough as well; UK 5 percent or NONE AT ALL for instance, which makes a lot of watches seem to be out of reach for many.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by AK797

Unfortunately it's the 1% or even the 0.01% who rule the world and now they've got their talons into our hobby.

At least you got your beautiful golden trio before sh** hit the fan.

[RollieRoll]

Originally Posted by dmash

At least you got your beautiful golden trio before sh** hit the fan.

That's right, Niel

[kauffee]

Originally Posted by Chadridv

But I do agree, I think if things stay as they are many many enthusiasts will move on to other brands.

What other brands? This is the problem as I see it. Everyone has gravitated toward Rolex, Patek, and AP. Those 3, that's it. Vacheron? Nobody cares. Lange? Beautiful watches, nobody cares. Nobody is on waiting lists for the run-of-the-mill Omegas, JLCs, or Cartiers. There's a handful of hot watches like the Journe CB, but those are niche.

So despite the industry making a ton of watches in the sub-$10k and sub-$25k ranges, nobody wants anything but stainless Rolex/AP/PP.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by kauffee

What other brands? This is the problem as I see it. Everyone has gravitated toward Rolex, Patek, and AP. Those 3, that's it. Vacheron? Nobody cares. Lange? Beautiful watches, nobody cares. Nobody is on waiting lists for the run-of-the-mill Omegas, JLCs, or Cartiers. There's a handful of hot watches like the Journe CB, but those are niche.

So despite the industry making a ton of watches in the sub-$10k and sub-$25k ranges, nobody wants anything but stainless Rolex/AP/PP.

Yup, huge problem. Nobody competes with the Sub or GMT. What Rolex offers, nobody touches them. And if somebody did drop a comparable brand tomorrow, it wouldn’t have the heritage and people wouldn’t buy it.

[breitlings]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Perfectly written.

I've been saying it a long time but I really hope the market goes back to normal and the people pushing these prices will take a big hit.

Greys are ruining the market.

you are both assuming that there is a strong middle class to support the rolex market. The middle and upper middle class have been decimated for the last 20 or so years.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by breitlings

you are both assuming that there is a strong middle class to support the rolex market. The middle and upper middle class have been decimated for the last 20 or so years.

So who is supporting the market in a crash? I don’t understand ywhat you’re trying to say..?

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by MinMay

People spending 20K on a watch...i don't think it matters if it's worth 10K after 5 or 10 years.

If people are using their life saving on a watch, then they're in the wrong hobby LOL. This hobby is not for everyone...

If Pepsi is going for 21K, then Daytona ceramic is cheap :) . Daytona Ceramic >>>>> Pepsi.

You seem to like this development?

Why should a Rolex SUB or GMT be unattainable? More people are able to drop 5-8-10k on a watch but not +20k. You know well enough that there are many people who have bought a 14060 or Pepsi GMT 10-15-20 years ago, people who work hard, save up, make some (or a lot) money and reward themselves with such a watch. Not everyone is a collector.

Besides that, you've got to be smoking something if you want to drop +20k on a SS Rolex. For 15-20k you can get an AP or an A. Lange & Söhne.

[TakeYourTime]

I don't get it how people pay so much above MSRP for a SS watch.
Go PM with a fair discount and build up a relationship with your AD to get the SS watches (you want) at MSRP.

Yes, indeed, the market is hot and even with my excellent purchasing history I cannot buy all SS watches as fast as I want (that's annoying but also exciting) but I will NOT pay those crazy grey prices... you know that "we" are creating those prices and I will neither support that nor burn my money.

BTW, I'm looking at a WG DD40 right now. Money is what you spend, value is what you get (thanks Warren). Everyone who has a clue of investment or wealth in general understands that... for those who don't... cmon spend 20K$ on a 9K$ SS watch which doesn't even have the paperwork on your name lol