Is vintage collecting a dying hobby?

[springer]

It's nice to see the monthly "doom or gloom" thread finally made it for August. I think I'll start working on the September thread now before someone else does- it will be a corker!!!

[gman5515]

lots of interesting comments, views and opinions. I do agree, partially or whole, with many comments. As a rather keen( but new) vintage watch collector, the pieces that I own and acquire, are what I like and enjoy. Of course, many times, I do wonder if the bubble will burst.

What I would like to add to the mix though, on this topic, is:

1) demand vs supply - the vintage pieces are no longer in production. u can't get more of them in the market(except through replicas or fakes-but seasoned collectors would know better). With increased publicity and awareness through social media etc, and watch brands going into heritage or re-issued models, it makes collectors today re-look at vintage pieces as well.

2) time value of money- what used to be worth $100 in the 1950s are worth way more than $100 today(many times over). It could be worth $1,000 or $10,000 today. People used to want to be a millionaire, but today, the number of millionaires have increased several fold. that's where the partial value of vintages have risen, along with increased demand.

Of course, with a sharp drop in demand, these vintage pieces could be worth nothing. There's always that possibility. its not impossible.

But, my rationale(and I gladly stand corrected) for values continuing to rise is this: You can tell the time from your mobile phone, your computer, in your car or even on your tv. Do you necessarily need a watch? Not really. For the modern person(men/women), the watch is an extension of your personality. It is an accessory. Some use it to symbol their wealth and/or status. In fact, its easy to show your wealth through your watch- Richard Mille is a perfect example of this(which is why I will never own one). U can't wear your house or your car on your wrist, but u certainly can through your watch.

Just my 2 cents.

[joli160]

Sure the vintage world will crash and only the most exclusive pieces will retain their value.
Happened with clocks, cars, antiques, porcelain, coins, militaria, stamps to name a few examples.

[rootbeer7]

Originally Posted by gman5515

lots of interesting comments, views and opinions. I do agree, partially or whole, with many comments. As a rather keen( but new) vintage watch collector, the pieces that I own and acquire, are what I like and enjoy. Of course, many times, I do wonder if the bubble will burst.

What I would like to add to the mix though, on this topic, is:

1) demand vs supply - the vintage pieces are no longer in production. u can't get more of them in the market(except through replicas or fakes-but seasoned collectors would know better). With increased publicity and awareness through social media etc, and watch brands going into heritage or re-issued models, it makes collectors today re-look at vintage pieces as well.

2) time value of money- what used to be worth $100 in the 1950s are worth way more than $100 today(many times over). It could be worth $1,000 or $10,000 today. People used to want to be a millionaire, but today, the number of millionaires have increased several fold. that's where the partial value of vintages have risen, along with increased demand.

Of course, with a sharp drop in demand, these vintage pieces could be worth nothing. There's always that possibility. its not impossible.

But, my rationale(and I gladly stand corrected) for values continuing to rise is this: You can tell the time from your mobile phone, your computer, in your car or even on your tv. Do you necessarily need a watch? Not really. For the modern person(men/women), the watch is an extension of your personality. It is an accessory. Some use it to symbol their wealth and/or status. In fact, its easy to show your wealth through your watch- Richard Mille is a perfect example of this(which is why I will never own one). U can't wear your house or your car on your wrist, but u certainly can through your watch.

Just my 2 cents.

This is great. We can also add that (vintage) watches are not only valuable but easily transportable.

[theflywrist]

I truly don't think it is.
The era of utility watches, the era when rolex was simply a tool watch and not a luxury brand/watch, is not returning.
There are MANY reasons why we collect vintage watches, and I truly think that the coming generations will continue to love, enjoy, and wear vintage watches for the same reasons.

Prices may correct, go up and then decline again, but I don't think that vintage watch collecting will become a dying hobby.
Younger guys are more than ever before venturing the market. Social media plays a role with exposure. It is otherwise very difficult for one to be exposed to vintage watches.
I along with many of my friends and likeminded collectors started out with modern collecting, and haven't looked back once we were exposed to vintage.

[gman5515]

Originally Posted by rootbeer7

This is great. We can also add that (vintage) watches are not only valuable but easily transportable.

Indeed mate.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by theflywrist

I truly don't think it is.
The era of utility watches, the era when rolex was simply a tool watch and not a luxury brand/watch, is not returning.
There are MANY reasons why we collect vintage watches, and I truly think that the coming generations will continue to love, enjoy, and wear vintage watches for the same reasons.

Prices may correct, go up and then decline again, but I don't think that vintage watch collecting will become a dying hobby.
Younger guys are more than ever before venturing the market. Social media plays a role with exposure. It is otherwise very difficult for one to be exposed to vintage watches.
I along with many of my friends and likeminded collectors started out with modern collecting, and haven't looked back once we were exposed to vintage.

Agreed. Collecting vintage is stronger than ever and it is indeed the young mans game today compared to 10 years ago.

I have no idea where the market is going but I feel fairly certain that pieces in top condition will continue to climb. Great watches are still very cheap compared to many other luxury items. That said I wouldn't invest my money in common models which aren't rare. I would however buy if I liked them for what they are.

[1William]

I believe that the vintage market is directly tied to prices. If you can source a nice vintage piece at what you consider a reasonable price and it can be serviced and worn then the market goes forward. Not the case currently with Rolex and PP. We are in what I believe to be a bubble for both vintage and new pieces. A correction is coming as I believe not just in prices but attitudes toward the brands. I am a WIS but have moved away from Rolex and was never involved with PP. I am now learning about IWC and am back with Panerai. I still own three Rolex watches but they are down my list of wears. Such is the watch game.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by springer

It's nice to see the monthly "doom or gloom" thread finally made it for August. I think I'll start working on the September thread now before someone else does- it will be a corker!!!

Lots of gloom, slow turnover and softer prices in August. Save your thread for December Bonus Season so we can rejoice in the frothy valuations and new highs

While not the intent of the OP we quickly went to the new blood and young guns willing to drop $10k on a refinished 16710 and the IG-fueled frothiness of the market.

[sithjedi333]

Less of a hobby and more of a speculative business.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

Lots of gloom, slow turnover and softer prices in August. Save your thread for December Bonus Season so we can rejoice in the frothy valuations and new highs

While not the intent of the OP we quickly went to the new blood and young guns willing to drop $10k on a refinished 16710 and the IG-fueled frothiness of the market.

From my experience there are a lot of ”young” people buying quality pieces. Many of the most knowledgable people I know are young. I really don’t see this as a dying hobby. I do however see some old school watch collectors feeling that their hobby got hi-jacked with new collectors, Instagram etc.

As for wristwatches going out of fashion. Who knows? I see no decline even though we don’t really need them. It is an accessorie. Not a tool. Many people today are attracted to having something unique and different and then vintage will often be much more interesting than modern.

[1675-David]

Originally Posted by roh123

I do however see some old school watch collectors feeling that their hobby got hi-jacked with new collectors, Instagram etc.

I have to admit I do fell like this from time to time and I'm not that old school and not much of a collector..

[roh123]

Originally Posted by 1675-David

I have to admit I do fell like this from time to time and I'm not that old school and not much of a collector..

Sure you are. Even though we still haven’t met here in Stockholm.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by gman5515

lots of interesting comments, views and opinions. I do agree, partially or whole, with many comments. As a rather keen( but new) vintage watch collector, the pieces that I own and acquire, are what I like and enjoy. Of course, many times, I do wonder if the bubble will burst.

What I would like to add to the mix though, on this topic, is:

1) demand vs supply - the vintage pieces are no longer in production. u can't get more of them in the market(except through replicas or fakes-but seasoned collectors would know better). With increased publicity and awareness through social media etc, and watch brands going into heritage or re-issued models, it makes collectors today re-look at vintage pieces as well.

2) time value of money- what used to be worth $100 in the 1950s are worth way more than $100 today(many times over). It could be worth $1,000 or $10,000 today. People used to want to be a millionaire, but today, the number of millionaires have increased several fold. that's where the partial value of vintages have risen, along with increased demand.

Of course, with a sharp drop in demand, these vintage pieces could be worth nothing. There's always that possibility. its not impossible.

But, my rationale(and I gladly stand corrected) for values continuing to rise is this: You can tell the time from your mobile phone, your computer, in your car or even on your tv. Do you necessarily need a watch? Not really. For the modern person(men/women), the watch is an extension of your personality. It is an accessory. Some use it to symbol their wealth and/or status. In fact, its easy to show your wealth through your watch- Richard Mille is a perfect example of this(which is why I will never own one). U can't wear your house or your car on your wrist, but u certainly can through your watch.

Just my 2 cents.

I agree with your views and well said.

Lets take other luxury brands for example as well. Goyard, Louis vuitton etc. They have been producing trunks, wallets, travel accessories for over 100 years. Who really needs a huge travel trunk anymore or carry a wallet for that matter, when all you need is a credit card and photo id. You wont need a credit card if using apple pay.. However, people still stick to these things because it's nice to own a luxury item. For the elite, designer trunk luggage will always appeal to them because it's a status symbol, just like luxury watches. no one will ever need a watch to tell the time, but they will want to own one anyway.

All this bubble talk, I think on the flip side. What if one day, vintage rolex can only be had by the super wealthy or those that bought very early. We are almost there with the way prices are.

one thing I think about trends, is that they are unpredictable and sometimes they cannot be explained. When the day comes that rolex starts producing computer watches, then I would worry.

when I was younger, what got me into vintage was the rarity. Modern watches were too easy to be had and I enjoy the hunt of vintage. I think the newer generations could appreciate the same thing.

As someone else stated, watch brands keep making reissue pieces that are a throw back to the past. Every new reissue could piece could possibly bring another decade to that particular vintage pieces relevancy. The anniversary red SD, lets say rolex produces that for another 5 years. Add another 10 years or more of relevancy after they stop producing them.

Look at the LV, last produced in 2006 and look at prices today. Over 10 years later and still going strong, stronger than anyone expected.

[linesiders]

Fun (rinse and repeat) thread.

Originally Posted by jdmi32

As long as watches retain their spot as the one accessory, or piece of jewelry if you prefer, that is acceptable for men to wear, then I see no change happening. Prices will fluctuate as with all collectibles, but I think the long term trend for vintage Rolex is still bright.

I also disagree that the pool of collectors is shrinking. If anything, the internet has opened the door for many people who otherwise would have never gotten into collecting.

Yes, prices have gone up by an unhealthy amount IMO the past few years. But they also fell sharply during the last financial crises. Long term collectors who collect because they love the watches and ignore the blips in prices are the ones who will get the most out of this hobby.

Originally Posted by Dr.Smellody

Probably parallels. The Submariner has been iconic for 65 years now though.... that's a lot of generations of enthusiasts.

Yes, Submariners and GMTs are not Bubblebacks

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by gman5515

1) demand vs supply - the vintage pieces are no longer in production. u can't get more of them in the market(except through replicas or fakes-but seasoned collectors would know better).

With demand and supply being so out of balance, the financial incentive to cheat with fakes or frankens grows with each new price high. As does the technology and sophistication.

Vintage experts claim rather confidently, to be one step ahead and able to identify even the best fakes... but can they really? Only the criminals and perhaps Rolex can know for sure.

[05carbondrz]

I disagree that fewer collectors are coming to the market.The demand from Asian Countries is HUGE.It seems to be to 25-35 Year Olds doing the Buying.A Rolex is a status symbol and Vintage is even more so as it takes a lot of work and research to acquire them.The current unavailability of hot new SS Models is also fueling the Vintage Market.Will There be a price correction someday? Sure,The bottom won’t drop out though as Rolex’s have historically been a good place to park some Money.

[superstarmar]

Might as well be ... prices are through the roof .

[onthedial]

For years and years watch collecting existed as a kind of club wherein timepieces were traded from collector to collector. It was a very small world. What we're seeing now is vastly different. In this environment I'd say we're in the early innings. Look at the infrastructure. This isn't a fad. Yes, if there's another economic catastrophe a la' 2008 vintage watch prices will be affected, as will every other collectible market. Yet, in the absence of a prolonged economic downturn vintage watches prices may very well "soften" for a period of time but I don't see anything that would instigate a market collapse.
____________
Instagram: @onthedial

[ExPADIdiver]

Been ruined for about 5 years now imho. Flame on.

[05carbondrz]

Originally Posted by ExPADIdiver

Been ruined for about 5 years now imho. Flame on.

I have been collecting vintage Rolex for less than 5 Years and I’ve had a great Time.

[fusionstorm]

Vintage Rolex to me has become like real estate in desirable metropolitan areas. They're not making anymore of it, the alternatives aren't nearly as desirable, and plenty of people still aspire to own them. No matter how significant the next downturn is, the overall rise in global wealth (especially in "new money" regions of the world) means it's likely IMO that prices will rebound and, in due time, will surpass previous levels.

Obviously, the usual caveat of "past performance is no guarantee of future results" still applies. But considering that we've seen and recovered from a Great Depression and Great Recession globally within the past 90 years, I doubt the next "big one" will prevent us from seeing a return to anywhere close to the highs.

[gman5515]

Originally Posted by SubKing

I agree with your views and well said.

Lets take other luxury brands for example as well. Goyard, Louis vuitton etc. They have been producing trunks, wallets, travel accessories for over 100 years. Who really needs a huge travel trunk anymore or carry a wallet for that matter, when all you need is a credit card and photo id. You wont need a credit card if using apple pay.. However, people still stick to these things because it's nice to own a luxury item. For the elite, designer trunk luggage will always appeal to them because it's a status symbol, just like luxury watches. no one will ever need a watch to tell the time, but they will want to own one anyway.

All this bubble talk, I think on the flip side. What if one day, vintage rolex can only be had by the super wealthy or those that bought very early. We are almost there with the way prices are.

one thing I think about trends, is that they are unpredictable and sometimes they cannot be explained. When the day comes that rolex starts producing computer watches, then I would worry.

when I was younger, what got me into vintage was the rarity. Modern watches were too easy to be had and I enjoy the hunt of vintage. I think the newer generations could appreciate the same thing.

As someone else stated, watch brands keep making reissue pieces that are a throw back to the past. Every new reissue could piece could possibly bring another decade to that particular vintage pieces relevancy. The anniversary red SD, lets say rolex produces that for another 5 years. Add another 10 years or more of relevancy after they stop producing them.

Look at the LV, last produced in 2006 and look at prices today. Over 10 years later and still going strong, stronger than anyone expected.

agreed. the LV kermit is certainly a good example. not a vintage, wasn't a limited edition either. definitely not going south in terms of prices anytime soon.

[gman5515]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

With demand and supply being so out of balance, the financial incentive to cheat with fakes or frankens grows with each new price high. As does the technology and sophistication.

Vintage experts claim rather confidently, to be one step ahead and able to identify even the best fakes... but can they really? Only the criminals and perhaps Rolex can know for sure.

well, they will get better- take the vintage Daytonas as a good example. there'll always be someone who will try, and will reach within collectors' hands somehow. A good reminder to remain vigilant, and never let your guard down, especially when so much money is at stake.

[MorningTundra]

Omega's 1957 Trilogy - Are vintage collectors buying these faux vintage reissues? Are these fashion watches?

There's no doubt vintage-everything has been fashionable for some time and I'm pretty sure some of this is driving price froth and new interest.

Fashion is fickle... and before people say style never goes out of fashion, we might want to consider whether an old tool watch is actually stylish. Iconic, yes. Historic, perhaps. Classy or stylish, debateable...

Once the bearded, mung-bean lumberjack is put to rest, I would not be at all surprised by a resurgence of his sophisticated, well dressed successor. And perhaps even a resurgent interest in Cellini.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by MorningTundra

Omega's 1957 Trilogy - Are vintage collectors buying these faux vintage reissues? Are these fashion watches?

There's no doubt vintage-everything has been fashionable for some time and I'm pretty sure some of this is driving price froth and new interest.

Fashion is fickle... and before people say style never goes out of fashion, we might want to consider whether an old tool watch is actually stylish. Iconic, yes. Historic, perhaps. Classy or stylish, debateable...

Once the bearded, mung-bean lumberjack is put to rest, I would not be at all surprised by a resurgence of his sophisticated, well dressed successor. And perhaps even a resurgent interest in Cellini.

Yes, I know many collectors who have bought these reissue pieces. I also know a couple vintage dealers that got them and sold them very quickly. They make a great daily beater for the collector that doesn't want to wear his vintage counterpart everyday.

I personally think a submariner goes amazing with a suit or tux. If James Bond could pull it off in the 50's and people still are today, then I wouldn't worry too much about the future of vintage rolex or the modern pieces for that matter

[Kingemann]

what makes watches great as collectibles is that they offer something you can easily store, show off to friends, spend fun hours researching and is adequately liquid to allow an easy exit. Also (bar replicas) the market is transparent enough that you rarely get completely ripped off if you do a minimum of research. In this age of consumerism, watches, together with vintage 911s and Defenders, offer something where the value doesn't follow Moore's Law downwards. While tech will become more pervasive, it will be less visible. We want to surround ourselves with people and items of tangible value. Mechanical watches are the supreme example of that. And, of course, we want the value of these items to rub off on ourselves, hence we want the best of the best; Vintage Rolex'es.

[Kingemann]

…… but of course. Markets are cyclical and volatile. Who knows what the 'right' price is for a pristine example of any of these watches. That's all down to taste and fashion.

[ExPADIdiver]

Originally Posted by 05carbondrz

I have been collecting vintage Rolex for less than 5 Years and I’ve had a great Time.

Glad it worked out for you.

[05carbondrz]

Originally Posted by ExPADIdiver

Glad it worked out for you.

Thanks