Hypothesis: Rolex is about to flood the market with BLNRs and BLROs

[zjd168]

Originally Posted by mobster600

I think within 1 year you will be able to get a BLRO and BLNR at an AD no problem

Heck you might be able to pick up both at the same time!

I hope you are right but looks more like wishful thinking, unless seeing 1929 or 2008 coming back again, which is the least pleasant way to have watch availability.

[mikester]

I sure hope so. I’m ready for one at MSRP today.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by mikester

I sure hope so. I’m ready for one at MSRP today.

well me too but i doubt it thoroughly. im not even a huge gmt fan and i want the ss blro.

[jason10mm]

I dont think having GMs suck up the less desired models is sustainable. Rolex surely knows which models actually sell, so why make ones that don't? I dont see why they cant adjust model ratios a bit to ease the shortage and I think cutting the LN is doing just that. Makes it easier to put out more of the higher valued Pepsi models and they can always reintroduce the LN at will (perhaps without the green dial or hand this time). Giving the BLNR a jubilee is clearly an attempt to gut the GM market on them, so it has to be paired with increased supply (or some other measure to limit grays) so the new model doesn't go the same way.

Dropping the LN may also be a prelude to a black ceramic bezelled explorer2 in a year or so. Rolex seems committed to 42mm sport watches and that would make a lot of sense. Develop 40mm and 42mm lines with some parallel aesthetics but different attributes.

[Zippy+]

Originally Posted by mikester

I sure hope so. I’m ready for one at MSRP today.

Why ? If they were readily available just pick one up half price from a grey ..

[watchwatcher]

[jb335]

Originally Posted by mobster600

I think within 1 year you will be able to get a BLRO and BLNR at an AD no problem

Heck you might be able to pick up both at the same time!

I doubt it. People have said that about nearly all hard to get pieces over the years. I remember people talking me out of buying a 116500 in 2017 for 17K because they thought it would be significantly down in a year or so....

[peterpl]

I would think so. I made the exact same statement on another post.

They have removed the entire LN market. Thats a big number of watches per year. For the GMT line to be profitable they would need to ramp up production on the only ones available which are the BLNR and BLRO. They still need to make a certain amount of millions from the GMT line. Cant do it removing all of the LNs and not increasing the BLRO/BLNR.

[MOOI]

You could be right on this. Distribution of watches over the watch lines (subs,gmt,etc) should be roughly the same each year -> I will drown in pepsi

[Lemonvr6]

wishful thinking. supply is constrained for a reason. look how desperate people are on this forum because of it. it clearly works.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Lemonvr6

wishful thinking. supply is constrained for a reason. look how desperate people are on this forum because of it. it clearly works.

So how are Rolex going to make up the lost revenue by discontinuing the entire LN line all SS/TT and Gold pieces?

I would say > 70% of all their GMTs sold were LNs of some configuration or another. Where is this extra revenue coming from in terms of their GMT line?

[Bobby100]

I have spoken to high level people inside Rolex and they have confirmed that this is going to happen.

[G M Francis]

Pareto rule- 80/20. The biggest problem any manufacturer has is offering too many SKUs ( Stock Keeping Units.) Offer 1 SKU and you get true demand over a quarter or a year. Offer 20 skus and all you get is orders and no real info on sell through.
If Rolex offer a SS model with three bezels on two variations of bracelets that is 6 skus. Cut back to 2 skus as they have done, make a bunch of them and quieten the demand down a little and it’s a problem solved for them. Short answer to your question is yes, I can see demand coming down and consequently supply getting much better

[envuks]

Originally Posted by Etschell

could be true but if so riddle me this. the daytona comes in two dials with the same bezel and they are harder to find than waldo.

Originally Posted by jfmiii

the BLRO/BLNR arent Daytonas.

The Daytona has been positioned as an elusive model in the Rolex product line for over a decade. They certainly seem to make them scarce intentionally. The GMTs were never really positioned that way until the success of BLRO and BLNR, which I think is more a factor of demand.

Just my $.02

[envuks]

Originally Posted by peterpl

So how are Rolex going to make up the lost revenue by discontinuing the entire LN line all SS/TT and Gold pieces?

I would say > 70% of all their GMTs sold were LNs of some configuration or another. Where is this extra revenue coming from in terms of their GMT line?

They’re not going to loose revenue through this change. Assuming the number of gmt watches produced remains roughly the same, they should gain some cost effiencies in manufacturing via less variation in the production line(s). Same number of watches, less variation.

I believe they may still make a similar number of gmts, maybe a little bit more. Who knows. Can’t speculate too accurately on that, but I would bet dollars to doughnuts overall production numbers won’t go down..... I will hypothesize that of the GMTs they do make, a higher % will be BLNR and BLRO. The result is more BLNRs and BLROs produced each year.

As I said in an earlier reply, my world choice of “flood the market” implies too much additional supply. I’m simply saying I believe there will be many more BLNRs and BLROs made going forward with the product line change we saw yesterday.

[mdaclarke]

Originally Posted by tng11

Makes sense, but my theory is that greys and flippers will just hoover up all of them anyways and trickle them out, so visually it looks just as rare even if supply has increased. The market just seems so manipulated these days.

I personally would welcome an increase in supply even though I own both BLNR and BLRO. Less worry in wearing them, as I know I can replace them if something bad happens to them.

That is a lot of capital to invest up front. Also will the AD's risk knowingly selling to the grey market in bulk.

[rjstuf001]

Originally Posted by Bobby100

I have spoken to high level people inside Rolex and they have confirmed that this is going to happen.

Hi Philip!

[rjstuf001]

I think OP's theory makes a lot of sense.

[SuperLeggera]

Originally Posted by mrloneranger

So is the new BLNR only available with a Jubilee Bracelet from now on? or can you spec it with an Oyster?

Just Jubliee for 2019

[David5807]

Originally Posted by RobearH

Plausible deduction...lets hope so!

Second this

[2nastie]

Originally Posted by peterpl

So how are Rolex going to make up the lost revenue by discontinuing the entire LN line all SS/TT and Gold pieces?

I would say > 70% of all their GMTs sold were LNs of some configuration or another. Where is this extra revenue coming from in terms of their GMT line?

They don't need a GMT to make up for the potential loss in revenue from the LN.

Rolex can either manufacture more BLRO, BLNRs, Subs... or simply push forward another model like a DJ which probably has better margins. Not that all these examples are apples to apples comparisons but based on 2018, Ads/Boutiques are "magically" able to convince customers to buy DJs (in a form of bundle) or simply grind new customers down who just wants a crown on their wrists.

Rolex isn't stupid enough to shut off any gravy train.

[mdaclarke]

That would be great. I really want a BLRO and a SD43 to complete my Rolex Collection

[GradyPhilpott]

Streamline, maybe.

Flood, doubtful.

[AK797]

Many would like to see it, so very unlikely, Rolex are very contrarian these days to put it nicely, or just stubborn to real change.

[superpop]

All of this agida over a mass produced piece of metal. It is comical to watch. Guys, it is a fashion bauble that happens to be in style right now. The market for these watches is somewhat finite and shrinking as millenials do not see the draw of a 10K watch. That is a car for most of them. will be interesting to see how this all plays out but I predict a lot of burned greys.

[subtona]

Bring it on.

Once I knew I could have one I would change my mind and wouldn’t want it:)

[Juantxo]

There was a time when Rolex would severely sanction dealers passing watches to the gray market. They must do it again. Enough already with speculation and petty hustle.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by superpop

All of this agida over a mass produced piece of metal. It is comical to watch. Guys, it is a fashion bauble that happens to be in style right now. The market for these watches is somewhat finite and shrinking as millenials do not see the draw of a 10K watch. That is a car for most of them. will be interesting to see how this all plays out but I predict a lot of burned greys.

There's truth to your statement, but really, millennials haven't reached the age at which fine watches become attractive.

Generally speaking, most of them need time to reach their financial potential, raise kids, pay off student-loans, develop an appreciation for things of permanence, and in some cases retire before they're ready to enter the fine watch market.

[grymg]

They took away the LN but also added another SD and YM to the mix. So I don't see how they can flex more manufacturing to the GMT as it is.

[outtatime]

Nothing would entertain me more than to watch the greys get stuck holding a huge bag.