Has the Nautilus bubble... dare I say it... slowed down?

[Addy5713]

Is there a general consensus as to why the Nautilus values have gone through the roof the last couple of years? I know that PP increased the price of the 5711 by 20% but that does not explain (to me, anyway) why a new 5711 is now going for somewhere on the order of 2x over the MSRP. Is it simply a matter of supply and demand? Has the demand grown that much in the last few years? I bought my 5713 from a grey dealer for MSRP in 2/18 and I could have purchased a 5711 for low 30's at that time. I opted for the 5713 (even though it was much more expensive) because I preferred the look and liked that it was more rare. I just reached out to my grey dealer to see what price he could get me for a new 5711. His answer: mid-60's (which, he told me, was a "discounted" price because I was a repeat customer). That is double what I could have paid in 2/18. Same watch, twice the price. No thanks. Glad I bought my 5713 when I did.

[soundserious]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.

Own both, if I had to pick the car would be gone. But, and this is important, the people that own these cars or own these watches don’t have to pick.

[SMD]

Have to say, getting tempted to part with my 5711 at these prices.

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by SMD

Have to say, getting tempted to part with my 5711 at these prices.

To liquidate or to trade towards another piece?

[SMD]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

To liquidate or to trade towards another piece?

Not sure. I have too many watches already, but knowing me I would add and then pocket the difference. I figure long term these prices can’t stay here and, long term, if I want it again, I am betting it will trade lower than this. But I could be wrong and regret it, but I don’t really wear it much now.

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by SMD

Not sure. I have too many watches already, but knowing me I would add and then pocket the difference. I figure long term these prices can’t stay here and, long term, if I want it again, I am betting it will trade lower than this. But I could be wrong and regret it, but I don’t really wear it much now.

Makes sense. And we really never are done... there always is another watch.

[sensui]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

Makes sense. And we really never are done... there always is another watch.

Someone has arrived at stage of acceptance. Good for you Steve.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by ct.matt

Who is buying these refs though at those prices? I would love to find a buyer for my 5164A at $70K :)

I will undercut you, any takers at 60?

[GreenLantern]

The absurd unnatural price inflation makes me enjoy wearing these watches a lot less, to be honest. :(

[jcoltrane]

Originally Posted by SMD

Not sure. I have too many watches already, but knowing me I would add and then pocket the difference. I figure long term these prices can’t stay here and, long term, if I want it again, I am betting it will trade lower than this. But I could be wrong and regret it, but I don’t really wear it much now.

When the price of a 5711 drops significantly, it will likely correlate with a significant drop in the market, and at that point your watches' value should hopefully be the least of your concerns. Putting it another way: wear the watch, enjoy it, life is too short.

[sdh1980]

In some cases, you could sell the Naut... use the profit to fund an AP RO and keep all your initial outlay for the PP.... Madness

[ts3]

Originally Posted by jcoltrane

When the price of a 5711 drops significantly, it will likely correlate with a significant drop in the market, and at that point your watches' value should hopefully be the least of your concerns. Putting it another way: wear the watch, enjoy it, life is too short.

Nautilus demand and prices may come down just as quickly as they inflated recently if the next big thing comes along... even if there wasn't a major correction of asset prices across the board. If I had a handful of Nautilus pieces at this point I might consider consolidating...

[Fat_ninja]

Have you guys seen the charts of bitcoin, gold, palladium, iron ore? Stocks. House prices?


Interest rates...

Lol. I have nothing useful to add

[AK797]

Originally Posted by ct.matt

Who is buying these refs though at those prices? I would love to find a buyer for my 5164A at $70K :)

I would really like to know now, before I could make the usual assumptions, but these last few months things have escalated so much I want names!

[Aquaman]

Originally Posted by AK797

I would really like to know now, before I could make the usual assumptions, but these last few months things have escalated so much I want names!

yeah they are called Charlie Big potatoes, ,and Billy Big BOLLOCKS

[SMD]

Originally Posted by jcoltrane

When the price of a 5711 drops significantly, it will likely correlate with a significant drop in the market, and at that point your watches' value should hopefully be the least of your concerns. Putting it another way: wear the watch, enjoy it, life is too short.

I’m not worried about the money, it’s more that I don’t really wear it as I have other pieces I like to wear more. So the thought process is people are paying crazy prices for a piece that I don’t really wear anymore so why am I holding onto it?

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Danny Govberg from Watchbox/Govberg predicts $100k by end of summer for 5711 blue

...and 200k by the spring.

[Fat_ninja]

I need to really go buy a 11 for myself. Don’t want to miss out ;)

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Danny Govberg from Watchbox/Govberg predicts $100k by end of summer for 5711 blue

That'll be something...

[Humble michael]

Not sure about all the sadness. How neat it is to have something special that we can enjoy and it not only holds its value but appreciates. It is sure better than money in the bank at 2-3%.Would you rather have or timepieces lose 20-30% when you walk out of the AD’s. Why the complaints??? Yes they are difficult to obtain but if you are patient and buy the piece right ( either new or pre-owned) you have something like fine art that will hold its value. Sorry I don’t see any
“bubble” collapse coming. Sure it would be real wise to sell your 5711 and buy a new Porsche that when you pick it up and drive it off the lot you will lose at least 10 grand! What??? Sorry I just don’t get the despair! Enjoy these wonderful timepieces - pay cash, take care of them and watch them appreciate. Just my 2
cents.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by james272

Not sure about all the sadness. How neat it is to have something special that we can enjoy and it not only holds its value but appreciates. It is sure better than money in the bank at 2-3%.Would you rather have or timepieces lose 20-30% when you walk out of the AD’s. Why the complaints??? Yes they are difficult to obtain but if you are patient and buy the piece right ( either new or pre-owned) you have something like fine art that will hold its value. Sorry I don’t see any
“bubble” collapse coming. Sure it would be real wise to sell your 5711 and buy a new Porsche that when you pick it up and drive it off the lot you will lose at least 10 grand! What??? Sorry I just don’t get the despair! Enjoy these wonderful timepieces - pay cash, take care of them and watch them appreciate. Just my 2
cents.

Some people like to lose money...

[The Argonaut]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Danny Govberg from Watchbox/Govberg predicts $100k by end of summer for 5711 blue

If true, by the end of the Summer, we may be approaching peak stupid.

[BobDyl]

Two 5711s on DavidSW at the moment - $68-75K range - will be interesting to see how long they take to sell at those prices. The lower priced one has been up for at least a week.

Govberg is firstly a sales guy, I liked Tim Mosso's take on the 5711 which is that at retail it's a steal but at 3X retail it's absurd.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by BobDyl

Two 5711s on DavidSW at the moment - $68-75K range - will be interesting to see how long they take to sell at those prices. The lower priced one has been up for at least a week.

Govberg is firstly a sales guy, I liked Tim Mosso's take on the 5711 which is that at retail it's a steal but at 3X retail it's absurd.

The lower price one is dated 2011 warrantee. Which means it’s been worn. Probably polished too
The 75 one also has been worn and was a 2018 watch



Neither of these are new. New is straddling the 100k mark

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by james272

Not sure about all the sadness. How neat it is to have something special that we can enjoy and it not only holds its value but appreciates. It is sure better than money in the bank at 2-3%.Would you rather have or timepieces lose 20-30% when you walk out of the AD’s. Why the complaints??? Yes they are difficult to obtain but if you are patient and buy the piece right ( either new or pre-owned) you have something like fine art that will hold its value. Sorry I don’t see any
“bubble” collapse coming. Sure it would be real wise to sell your 5711 and buy a new Porsche that when you pick it up and drive it off the lot you will lose at least 10 grand! What??? Sorry I just don’t get the despair! Enjoy these wonderful timepieces - pay cash, take care of them and watch them appreciate. Just my 2
cents.

Of course one could look at it as the current ridiculous appreciation of an MSRP purchased 5711 offsetting the depreciation of a new 911.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by The Argonaut

If true, by the end of the Summer, we may be approaching peak stupid.

I like peak stupid

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.

I agree . Madness has overtaken the people by storm.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by superstarmar

I agree . Madness has overtaken the people by storm.

Originally Posted by GB-man

I don't think so yet. When you can sell a 5711 and buy a porsche something is truly wrong.

But the new 911 has 4 cylinders... it’s like a dolled up VW these days...

[superstarmar]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

But the new 911 has 4 cylinders... it’s like a dolled up VW these days...

[s.m.b.]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

But the new 911 has 4 cylinders... it’s like a dolled up VW these days...

Ha. Clearly, you haven't experienced one.