Had a talk with my AD today....

[Norbert]

lol, look at the OP, he has 8 Rolexes and he's wondering why there is a shortage? Used to be people only had 1 Rolex, now seems like everybody has multiples! There's no double secret reason for the shortage. Its simple, demand has shot through the roof!

[matt19hsc]

My AD yesterday had 1 rhodium yachmaster and one TT yachtmaster in the case. First time i have seen a ss sport there in quite some time.

Proclaimed they have only gotten 3 pepsi's all year and haven't seen a Daytona since 2018. On the list for CHNR/Pepsi/Daytona with CHNR the most likely to get in their opinion....

[T3F]

Not going to say your AD is lying, but if they're not, they're probably going to get axed soon. It could also be that someone higher up is selling to the grey market and is giving that excuse to the Assistant Manager. My ADs have gotten plenty of stock -- slightly more than previously, actually -- and it's just the insane demand that's created the current market situation.

[matt19hsc]

perhaps. What would be interesting is if somehow a database of warranty card stamps via grey market existed. Then you would have a better indicator from where the watches originated....

[LeftCoastBias]

It wouldn’t shock me if Ben Bridge UTC lost their AD status. It’s never seemed to be an experience on par with the other ADs I’m familiar with, and Rolex already gave the axe to royal maui when Fourtane moved into fashion valley.

UTC is building that new ultra high end luxury plaza that will replace the old Nordstrom building. Hermès already moved from fashion valley, and I suspect many other luxury brands will, as well.

To me, it would make sense if a rolex boutique was included in those store openings.

[siempreko]

We need to implement a one Rolex per individual policy!

[Ravager135]

I was recently shopping at my nearest AD. I have only purchased one Rolex from them (a 116610LV a few years ago). I have however brought in Rolex watches for service and I am currently looking at getting a Big Pilot. This is what drew me into the AD last week. They have always been very honest and forthright with me. When the ceramic Daytona came out they offered to put me on a waitlist because I had purchased from them before. The salesman was very realistic about timelines and how they work through the waitlist.

All that aside, the salesman I spoke with gave me the exact same information that yours gave you. He point blank told me demand was up and that he cannot get any stainless steel stock. He said he takes names, but essentially tells customers they may be waiting years. The staff literally gathered around me to check out the BLNR I was wearing because they haven't had a GMT-Master II in stainless steel that hasn't gone out the minute it came in. He did not provide exact time frames for shipments but said that stainless pieces can take "months." He also said that the Rolex demand has sharply driven up sales with other brands and no one wants to wait 5 years for a Rolex.

I was looking at a Big Pilot Le Petite Prince, but wanted to compare weight with the Heritage titanium version before purchasing. He offered a discount and promised to call when the titanium came in in a week or so. I only mention this because he seemed to be genuine as this AD has always been with me. There was nothing on the pricing or talk of shipments that they seemed to be hiding. He wasn't pushing me to buy a piece I wasn't sure about. His discount was right in line with what I would expect for the model as well.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

I was recently shopping at my nearest AD. I have only purchased one Rolex from them (a 116610LV a few years ago). I have however brought in Rolex watches for service and I am currently looking at getting a Big Pilot. This is what drew me into the AD last week. They have always been very honest and forthright with me. When the ceramic Daytona came out they offered to put me on a waitlist because I had purchased from them before. The salesman was very realistic about timelines and how they work through the waitlist.

All that aside, the salesman I spoke with gave me the exact same information that yours gave you. He point blank told me demand was up and that he cannot get any stainless steel stock. He said he takes names, but essentially tells customers they may be waiting years. The staff literally gathered around me to check out the BLNR I was wearing because they haven't had a GMT-Master II in stainless steel that hasn't gone out the minute it came in. He did not provide exact time frames for shipments but said that stainless pieces can take "months." He also said that the Rolex demand has sharply driven up sales with other brands and no one wants to wait 5 years for a Rolex.

I was looking at a Big Pilot Le Petite Prince, but wanted to compare weight with the Heritage titanium version before purchasing. He offered a discount and promised to call when the titanium came in in a week or so. I only mention this because he seemed to be genuine as this AD has always been with me. There was nothing on the pricing or talk of shipments that they seemed to be hiding. He wasn't pushing me to buy a piece I wasn't sure about. His discount was right in line with what I would expect for the model as well.

I have the BP le petit prince ...awesome !! Best BP of all

[SlideRacker]

So another Datejust Boutique is about to bite the dust. Every time I see one go down I'm so glad I never played the AD game.

[oldman2005]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

.....

the number of sports models Rolex is delivering is trickled down to nothing.

So, hey Rolex.. WTF?

That's what I have been saying all along that Rolex has cut the production of SS sports, each of AD got a few SS Daytona, BLRO,... per year. This low supply of SS Sport contributes to the hyper demand of these watches. We tend to look at Rolex through the rose glasses but Rolex SS sport was not hot 2 years ago nor competitive to other brands such as Omega,..

This Rolex strategy might be great for old timers who are loaded with SS sports in their collection but tough to new comers.

[oldman2005]

Originally Posted by karasus

..
If we assume that Rolex is 1/3 of the supply, and they are the only ones reducing their steel supply then they are probably only producing 60% - 70% of what they used to make in SS models and its likely to keep going down.
...

Much lower than 1/3

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by oldman2005

That's what I have been saying all along that Rolex has cut the production of SS sports, each of AD got a few SS Daytona, BLRO,... per year. This low supply of SS Sport contributes to the hyper demand of these watches. We tend to look at Rolex through the rose glasses but Rolex SS sport was not hot 2 years ago nor competitive to other brands such as Omega,..

This Rolex strategy might be great for old timers who are loaded with SS sports in their collection but tough to new comers.

Well said! I've found myself eyeing a speedy and used Omega Planet ocean given the bang for the buck they present these days.

[LeftCoastBias]

No one knows the full story outside of the people in Geneva, but based on my personal experiences, and what we read in the forums...

The ADs that were moving a lot of product before the demand went through the roof are the same ones being rewarded with the hot models.

The AD I have a relationship with is getting at least a handful of sport models every month. He’s moving them strictly to whales. My best friend is one of those whales. He has already been able to get two white face Daytona’s from the same AD... while mine is coming whenever all the fatter fat cats have had their fill (I also didn’t express interest until last year, after trying one on in the flesh).

Whereas it appears ADs that were not moving as much product before the demand crunch are now not getting any sport models.

If that is the case, it makes sense. In sales, you always take care of your best clients first. I do the same with my business. If I get two requests at the same time, the bigger customer will get my attention first. ADs are doing this, and it only makes sense that rolex would do this for their clients... which are the ADs.

And yes... the “shortage” is exacerbated by people buying more than they used to. No one needs multiple rolexes, but yet, many of us have several now.

And we are using our established relationships to help friends skip the line.

Might not be considered fair to someone just trying to buy their first watch... but not much in life is fair. And certainly not in the luxury goods world. That’s the last place someone should look to for equality.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

I have the BP le petit prince ...awesome !! Best BP of all

I am all over the place with the Big Pilot. I have big wrists, but worry about it being too top heavy. Will need to evaluate the titanium version first. I am open to the standard model, Le Petite Prince, and the Heritage model.

Le Petite Prince seems a little more dressy than the other two models. I also lack a blue dial in my collection since I sold my Pilot Chrono; so I am familiar with the overall look. I only sold the Pilot Chrono version because I wanted to get the Big Pilot eventually and the two seemed redundant.

The black dial models seem a bit more traditional and representative of the original look of the watch. I’ll have to figure this out.

[d11n]

AD mentioned to me that now DateJust are very limited allocation. I guess pretty soon the stores will be empty.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I asked if Rolex was squeezing Ben Bridge out of the AD and focusing on their Boutiques only and she said she didn’t think so, the in town boutique had as little inventory as Ben Bridge (this is true, at least the display cases are as bare).

...To sum it up, IMHO, Rolex is just not delivering product.

I suspect (and that's it- just suspect) that there is some legal barrier that prevents Rolex from closing a large handful of shops/terminating relationships with a string of companies. The only thing to do would be to make it economically difficult for said dealerships to maintain their sales quotas.

Of course, that'd be difficult to confirm, if not impossible, without Rolex admitting as much.

[Ravager135]

Originally Posted by d11n

AD mentioned to me that now DateJust are very limited allocation. I guess pretty soon the stores will be empty.

My AD had one Datejust 41 in the window: a smooth bezel, Jubilee bracelet white dial model. The salesman stated that they cannot keep rhodium and blue dial models in stock at all. He stated that black and white dials will come in and maybe sit in the case for a few days before being sold.

[saturdayAMswingers]

Originally Posted by LeftCoastBias

It wouldn’t shock me if Ben Bridge UTC lost their AD status. It’s never seemed to be an experience on par with the other ADs I’m familiar with, and Rolex already gave the axe to royal maui when Fourtane moved into fashion valley.

UTC is building that new ultra high end luxury plaza that will replace the old Nordstrom building. Hermès already moved from fashion valley, and I suspect many other luxury brands will, as well.

To me, it would make sense if a rolex boutique was included in those store openings.

Agree about Ben Bridge at UTC. Surprisingly disorganized, given that its a "flagship" type location. Royal Maui treated me well in Escondido getting an Explorer I

[BillA]

I think that demand is just off the charts. A forum member asked me where he could go in the NYC/LI area to land a SS Professional piece, because he is visiting from the west coast. I told him there is no AD to visit to see any sport SS models in the display. The salespeople have a good chuckle when you walk in the door asking for a hot piece. In NYC alone I would not be surprised if 50 people or more walk in the door looking for the hot pieces. It is just a very weird situation. Perhaps someone could explain why Rolex and Patek all of a sudden are the hot names in town and other watchmakers are not?

[mmmmp]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

I am all over the place with the Big Pilot. I have big wrists, but worry about it being too top heavy. Will need to evaluate the titanium version first. I am open to the standard model, Le Petite Prince, and the Heritage model.

Le Petite Prince seems a little more dressy than the other two models. I also lack a blue dial in my collection since I sold my Pilot Chrono; so I am familiar with the overall look. I only sold the Pilot Chrono version because I wanted to get the Big Pilot eventually and the two seemed redundant.

The black dial models seem a bit more traditional and representative of the original look of the watch. I’ll have to figure this out.

Don't wanna hijack this thread but I just wanted to mention my brother has had a BP (Mk- XVI) for the last year and a half. Wears very comfortably (on bracelet) and the time keeping is excellent. -1/+2 worn daily. The arabics are not at all my thing otherwise it's a fine piece.

Sorry gentlemen....carry on.

Sent from my SM-A520W using Tapatalk

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Ravager135

I am all over the place with the Big Pilot. I have big wrists, but worry about it being too top heavy. Will need to evaluate the titanium version first. I am open to the standard model, Le Petite Prince, and the Heritage model.

Le Petite Prince seems a little more dressy than the other two models. I also lack a blue dial in my collection since I sold my Pilot Chrono; so I am familiar with the overall look. I only sold the Pilot Chrono version because I wanted to get the Big Pilot eventually and the two seemed redundant.

The black dial models seem a bit more traditional and representative of the original look of the watch. I’ll have to figure this out.

Not top heavy ,wears light if you have large wrists (I have too )I would definitely go for the ss le petit prince,blue dial ,brown strap.I love the WG grey dial version as well.

[drtii]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I went in my AD to pick up a Rolex Magazine (#8) they had gotten for me, and ended up having a nice conversation with the assistant manager. Now, I have bought... seven or eight Rolexes from this AD (Ben Bridge) over the last 10 years. All SS. So am I a high-roller? Hardly, but through my relationship with them I have been able to purchase a couple very hard to get pieces, including an 116520 Daytona in 2008, a Ceramic Dayona the year it came out, and a pepsi late last year. I am not a big-spender by any stretch, but they seem to be honest with me, the point to all of this is I believe what the assistant manager told me. Here is what she said:

The number of SS sport models has gone down to nothing, they do not have a clue why and the rep was in yesterday with no answers. She said they had a total of three of the Basel 2019 releases. They are now TAKING orders for the DATEJUST 41, which won’t be filled until August. I asked her bluntly if the SS were going out the back door, i.e. to Gray dealers and she said absolutely no. I asked if Rolex was squeezing Ben Bridge out of the AD and focusing on their Boutiques only and she said she didn’t think so, the in town boutique had as little inventory as Ben Bridge (this is true, at least the display cases are as bare).

So..... proof! Ok, this really proves nothing, but I believe her and I believe that Rolex is just not supplying their ADs with product. Why? Great question, but I don’t believe what some TRFers have suggested, that Rolex is delivering the same amount of sports models to the ADs, but there is such a high demand they immediately go out the front door to waiting lists, or out the back door to grays. I just don’t think this is happening.

To sum it up, IMHO, Rolex is just not delivering product. Yes, there is an incredibly high demand, and yes as soon as they come in to an AD they are gone, but (again, IMHO and what my AD assistant manager says) the number of sports models Rolex is delivering is trickled down to nothing.

So, hey Rolex.. WTF?

I too have a relationship with the same company and I can 100% believe what you're saying. BB is gonna shoot it straight if you have a good relationship with your rep and mine, while not saying the exact same thing, has alluded to not getting any SS stock.

From what I'm hearing there's quite literally nothing to sell in SS. It's not just saved for VVIP, it's straight up not showing up! No way to order. No way to even suggest it. Rolex just isn't sending SS pieces.

RE: Squeezing BB. I don't think Rolex is going to F with Warren Buffet to be honest.

[Calatrava r]

Perhaps your post, well intended as it was, may cause difficulties for this AD and the assistant manager with Rolex.

[Calatrava r]

This contrasts the numerous other posters who say their ADs tell them they are actually receiving more watches. The problem is they are all presold and never hit the case.

[AK797]

Because demand is so high globally, some ADs are probably getting less stock than before as more of them have to be shared out, particularly to hot markets and cities. There is no way in this market Rolex is reducing supply, or even increasing it knowing them, any significant changes to supply will be announced by Rolex as they would be keen to show WIS that they recognise how difficult it is for those customers now, just as they publicly announced in 2017 that demand had leaped and surprised them and there would be shortages for much of 18.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Perhaps your post, well intended as it was, may cause difficulties for this AD and the assistant manager with Rolex.

I would love to hear Rolex SA's response on the claim from this AD's employee that Rolex is not delivering stock .

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

The reason they would do that is that ADs are not allowed to sell over MSRP. So they sell to the Greys out the back door who sell the same watch for double or triple and they split the profits.

As for the shortage I think it's not that Rolex is producing less it's the fact that every AD & Boutique is ordering more. From what I have read here on the Forum is that 3=4 years ago most of these Hot Grail watches were sitting in the cases and could be bought at discount. So if your a business owner are you going to be ordering more of these watches? Answer is NO.

So any AD or Boutique who needed one of these models either had them or could order and receive very quickly. So there was slack in the system. Rolex produced 100% of predicted demand but actual demand was may be 80-90%. Thus the slack in the system because not every AD or Boutique was ordering these models, they were trying to sell off stock they had sitting the cases already.

Now take the same amount of watches produced and have to spread them out to every single AD & Boutique in the world and that's why you now have single digit amounts going to each AD/Boutique. There's is no slack in the system. And by the way I think this has a lot to do with Rolex closing up many ADs. They needed to reduce the number of outlets they had to spread a fixed amount of watches over. Expect closings to continue.

I think this artificial shortage has been caused by the crazy prices on the Grey markets. Not a healthy situation. It's hot money demand causing above normal artificial demand. The Greys are in control of the Rolex inventory worldwide and not the ADs/Boutiques. They are in a sense cornering the market. If Rolex ever tried to solve the supply problem by increasing supply the whole thing would blow up. They are hoping it just will deflate slowly and naturally.

I see a pin swirling around the world, it's only a matter of time till the bubble inflates big enough for the pin to find it. Then it will be time to buy. If you still want to!

Excellent post here. I very much agree.

[Importer_Exporter]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

UTC, did you deal with Josephine?

Yep!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Jsol]

Rolex still operates like a 100+ year old company that can’t keep up with social media’s influence on global demand. I don’t think they have reduced production, as much as utterly failed to increase it in the face of disposable income supporting the luxury market. I don’t think it’s intentional on their part, yet the result has created even more cache and thirst for the brand. I for one, have started to appreciate Cartier, AP etc and spread my love more.

[WatchGuy1966]

A Local AD told me that now the SS DJ41 w/ Fluted is now on Allocation only.

I don't think this is true - I don't believe it, yet. Perhaps she misunderstood what the Rolex Rep told her, or she misstated what he said, or I misunderstood her.

Has anyone heard the same? What do you think?