Thrilled to be seeing watches sit! Bumps away!

[Tenebris Equum]

The inevitable is slowly happening, give it a bit more time though as it is still early days imo.

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[Seibei]

If it looks like prices are trending down, then speculators will stop buying and whoever is holding stock will be sad... If you are looking to buy, then my advice is buy from and AD but if you are going gray, then wait a year or two or three. I have a feeling you will be sorry if you buy gray today.

[Luther89]

Don’t know why everyone wants availability to increase - it takes the fun out of it!

[scurfa]

A lot of deliveries lately, looks like production may of been ramped up, not too much to start seeing Watches in windows again but certainly increased.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by Rushne

It could just be a summer slow down. Next few months will tell

Doubt it. Summer in one part of the world is winter in another part.

[VacherObsessive]

It’s August guys, between June and August all mens luxury goods like watches and high end guitars slow right down, as men are travelling away on vacation and or also taking their families on vacation and have no spare £££ or time to be buying watches and the like.

I’m not surprised to see a few teasing price drops to get some cash flow going during this slow period (same every year). Come end of September things will be back up again and towards Christmas prices will be higher than ever. Sorry to disappoint

[VacherObsessive]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Doubt it. Summer in one part of the world is winter in another part.

Clutching at straws there..
90% of the spending power is in the northern hemisphere... North America, Europe, Russia, Middle East, Japan, hong Kong, China...

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by VacherObsessive

Clutching at straws there..
90% of the spending power is in the northern hemisphere... North America, Europe, Russia, Middle East, Japan, hong Kong, China...

LOL dont think so.

Its everywhere now. Watch groups, forums, insta, youtube. The watch dynamics and general atmosphere on these overpriced watches have changed.

Just watched the news HK having the biggest demonstration to date it seems right now as I type this. Its inevitable Chinese troops going to shut down HK sooner or later if the situation doesnt improve. Makes the Chinese government look bad they cant control HK.

Just wait - the watch market on a downtrend. Watch the number if sale listings on TRF shoot up next few weeks. LOL

[Fire bloke]

I watch the Roman Sharif channel on YouTube it's brilliant.
This man knows what he is talking about
he says the way it works is:-
Dealer buys stock from AD or sellers this transaction then starts a chain that dealer sells to another dealer. Most of the trading is done this way dealer to dealer. The watch goes from dealer to dealer.
The dealers then hold onto stock and hope to sell back to consumer or another dealer. Holding onto supply is done to form a false economy and a hightened price and profit.

He says The problem for the dealers will start once the dealers are not selling to other dealers.. it's not when the selling stops to the consumers. There is a background econemy. When this happens all the grey dealers. then dump there held back stock..... this and the fact there won't be enough dealers or consumers to buy as the price is coming down means a massive crash and alot of the dealer losing there shirt. It will mean also alot of the smaller dealers will leave the trade.

[konarider530]

By crash, are we talking prices falling below, or just a sensible percentage above, retail?
I might just hold out for the SD43 to come into reach.

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by steve099

Only the SKyD blue and Pepsi seem like they are actually in short supply (in that order)..the rest are abundant and artificially inflated.

Saw some Hulks listed for 14k last week, 13's wont be far behind.

So you see a lot of Daytona 116500 sitting around without buyers? Readily available are they?


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[spare]

That was my thesis as well: summer months, holidays, family down time. We'll see in the fall what prices are doing.

[rootbeer7]

Originally Posted by Fire bloke

I watch the Roman Sharif channel on YouTube it's brilliant.
This man knows what he is talking about
he says the way it works is:-
Dealer buys stock from AD or sellers this transaction then starts a chain that dealer sells to another dealer. Most of the trading is done this way dealer to dealer. The watch goes from dealer to dealer.
The dealers then hold onto stock and hope to sell back to consumer or another dealer. Holding onto supply is done to form a false economy and a hightened price and profit.

He says The problem for the dealers will start once the dealers are not selling to other dealers.. it's not when the selling stops to the consumers. There is a background econemy. When this happens all the grey dealers. then dump there held back stock..... this and the fact there won't be enough dealers or consumers to buy as the price is coming down means a massive crash and alot of the dealer losing there shirt. It will mean also alot of the smaller dealers will leave the trade.

This sounds closest to fact. I don’t see a collapse, more of a return to mrsp as Rolex continue their price increases annually. The gap between AD and grey will close, waiting list time will shrink and a more reasonable premium may return for those that don’t want a 6 month wait.
At the cost now for a BLNR, HULK or Daytona from a grey, there are far more interesting watches out there.

[Muxi]

This is the reason Rolex does not want to mess with its regular output see?

[dxbtousa]

I hope all of you fortune tellers will bookmark this thread to return to in 6-12 months.

[77T]

Originally Posted by illiguy

I think OP's point is that these grey watches aren't rapidly selling at listed price as they were a couple months ago, so this is perhaps indicia of a turning of the tide, if you will. Could be a logical fallacy to think this way, of course.

When demand softens it could be for several reasons that range from “a to z”.

The a:
Almost all of the buyers willing to pay uplifted prices have the watches they wanted. Demand slows and grey prices will come down to the new equilibrium.

The z:
The economy drops significantly that will wash out the hot discretionary spenders for whatever personal reasons. Demand drops to very low level for grey market and MSRP returns to normal.

I’m not seeing any significant sign of “z”, maybe it’s more like “a” for now. I don’t wish “a” on anyone...


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[BillA]

Even though people on vacation for the summer.......this is a forum of enthusiasts, even if not in the market for a watch, as we walk past an AD, anywhere in the world and stop in and see the AD's stock. Sometimes, the AD takes out a hard to get piece like a SS Skydweller, or DaytonaC, as an example, and we buy it on the spot, with no intention walking in we are going to buy. So I am not signing up for the "vacation" excuse.

I just returned from Portugal, no SS Professional models to be had. I stopped by the AD in Porto, just dust collectors in the window. I was not in the market for a new watch. But sure enough if they had a DaytonaC I would not hesitate to buy it.

[1William]

I don't believe the current market can be sustained for Rolex and PP. It may bounce several times with drops and rebounds but in the end we will see significant price reductions in watches and increased inventory will be available. I believe in the current false economy of prices and availability that when it finally hits the fan it will be a free fall. I believe the market will be flooded with Daytona-C's, Hulk's, Blue Sky-Dwellers and PP 5711's and so on. As more watches hit the market and prices reduce then more watches will hit the market at even less. A lot of buyers just want watches that others can not have and they rap it up in an "investment'. I think a lot of investors are getting ready to learn a very hard lesson. I sold out of my SS Rolex Sport watches a while back and profited significantly. Now when the market turns, I will buy them back on the cheap. Just my thought

[Calatrava r]

More and more watch YouTubers are joining the chorus that the top has been made and prices are now slowly falling. Whether you will be able to obtain one of these at retail from an AD remains to be seen but I believe it is still a long way off even with the secondary market correction, unless its very steeply down.

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by BillA

Even though people on vacation for the summer.......this is a forum of enthusiasts, even if not in the market for a watch, as we walk past an AD, anywhere in the world and stop in and see the AD's stock. Sometimes, the AD takes out a hard to get piece like a SS Skydweller, or DaytonaC, as an example, and we buy it on the spot, with no intention walking in we are going to buy. So I am not signing up for the "vacation" excuse.

I just returned from Portugal, no SS Professional models to be had. I stopped by the AD in Porto, just dust collectors in the window. I was not in the market for a new watch. But sure enough if they had a DaytonaC I would not hesitate to buy it.

This dynamic is here to stay for the Daytona C. I just do not seeing sitting unsold in dealer's case.

[pkincy]

In the true luxury goods market we had an excellent data point last night. Sotheby’s auction at the Monterey Historics has been described as a “bloodbath.” They had more cars than last year but sold 30 fewer and at an avg sales price of $75,000 per car lower. Sales were down a full 25% year over year. This is one of the World’s top 4 or 5 annual collector car auctions.

So WalMart announced a great quarter this week but collector cars are off 25%?? Rolex is closer to Walmart than Sotheby’s in clientele but still I wouldn’t be paying over MSRP for a mass produced watch these days



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[Danny83]

The demand and waitlists are toooo high for a price drop. I wish things would stabilize but I just dont see it. I guess I took Rolex for granted

[sond86]

Speculative buyers will likely retreat fast at a first hint of problems

[chloebear]

Originally Posted by Rushne

It could just be a summer slow down. Next few months will tell

I think this could actually be something. Here in the middle of America where it's been 100 degrees for days on end I don't even like getting out to get the mail. Similar to the harsh winters up north I suppose. Life resumes here in October.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by chloebear

I think this could actually be something. Here in the middle of America where it's been 100 degrees for days on end I don't even like getting out to get the mail. Similar to the harsh winters up north I suppose. Life resumes here in October.

I can relate Mike.

Here in SW Ontario we have hot humid summers and cold winters. Malice resumes from May-June

[Overwound]

Originally Posted by exador

Takuya still seems to have no problems flogging Pepsis for $18k...

My father once told me there's an ass for every seat. His words ring true with me in situations like this.

[nuts070]

Most posts are assuming that production will be maintained. Careful on your predictions as you have to consider Rolex as a manufacture in the equation in this bubble, shortage, demand etc.

Any changes that might affect the status quo may be still be influenced by Rolex to maintain the current status quo.

[Muxi]

Originally Posted by nuts070

Most posts are assuming that production will be maintained. Careful on your predictions as you have to consider Rolex as a manufacture in the equation in this bubble, shortage, demand etc.

Any changes that might affect the status quo may be still be influenced by Rolex to maintain the current status quo.

Good point. Rolex is probably happy with the status quo where its slow-moving references are now less discounted or sold at retail. It should be learning a thing or two from other brands that reluctantly buy-back its over-production.

[Xerxes77]

Sky Dweller blue dial will be the hardest to get and will remain for loooonnnggg time like this because af it’s complicated movement who are not so easy to produce in very big numbers like 3235....
Maybe Daytona will be next.....
About PP that it’s another story.....Mr. Stern tell Hoodinkee production it’s around 60000 watches per year and around 25-30% it’s steel watches and that will stay like this. This mean around 18000 watches per year in SS.
Also tell they have around 400 AD. This mean every AD will received around 45 SS watches.
In this case I can understand waiting list especially now when all people want SS watches.
IMO Rolex create a very big bubble and they are magicians to do this!!!
On PP if demands no fall down you will not see bubble exploded soon!
Just my opinion...

[timepieceluvr]

I could care less if there is a slowdown but it looks like they’re still selling quickly to me...

Paying over retail is a suckers bet

https://www.watchpricetrend.com/cost...-sell-a-watch/


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