Why are all the watch sites pushing F.P Journe?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by BigAppleBill

I also think a certain segment of watch enthusiasts appreciate a skilled manufacturer [FPJ] with integrity of purpose, which offers an alternative to more the well known, higher production houses.

Decades of experience collecting also gives one a perspective of reality [FPG] versus hyped up old Swiss brand names too. Many newbies seem to trip over the hyped brands that are merely a shadow's shadow of what they once were.

It's wonderful that FPJ is delivering the highest of standards.

jmho

[MrBenF]

Here are a few things about FP Journe:
- all his movements are designed and built in-house
- even his simplest time-only calibre is quite a departure from those used by traditional watchmakers (PP, VC, AP, ALS), ie twin barrels with the connection between the escapement and drive train on the dial side
- one of 3 watchmakers to produce a resonance wristwatch
- amongst his innovations is the chronograph calibre. It employs a unique architecture with separate power-trains for which he got a patent
- another more recent one is the QP. It’s a 120hr power reserve and the only one with an instantaneous jump QP
- only watchmaker to have won GPHG 3 times. He’s since withdrawn from the competition
- all his references share a unique design language
- his use of proprietary screws mean that they can be serviced by the manufacture. This is a good or bad thing depending on your point of view
- there’re other manufactures with better movement finishing at comparable price points (ALS) but he’s the only one (outside of micro independents) that construct his movements in 22c gold
- one watchmaker is responsible for the assembly for the entire watch. This is quite unique in the industry
- limited production is a plus for some and a negative for others. Personally I’m in favour of it

In summary, what draws me to FPJ is that he’s a movement guy and in that aspect, he’s right at the top of the hierarchy. Others may care little for that and prefer to emphasise brand prestige and aesthetics.

There’s certainly been a big run-up in secondary market prices in a short period of time which paradoxically has probably brought it to the attention of collectors. I’ll be watching with interest how this play out in the short to medium term

In terms of future viability that’s an open question that no-one can predicts. But Chanel taking a 20% is a positive development in that respect

On a side-note, Patek Philippe was in a precarious state when the Stern family took over in the 1930s. Under their stewardship the name has thrived. A lot of brands with long history folded during the quartz crisis but TS’s decision to invest and innovate ultimately saw the brand emerge stronger. Also I feel their marketing campaign (thought aimed at a niche market) is one of the strongest in history.

IMHO

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[WatchEater666]

I just got off the phone with a Canadian dealer. I was quoted prices lower than they are selling for used now with a wait time of 3 - 8 months depending on how COVID impacts things and that's with fairly high Canadian sales tax factored in. I will definitely wait a few months and get a brand new watch along with the full FPJ experience.

[037]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Decades of experience collecting also gives one a perspective of reality [FPG] versus hyped up old Swiss brand names too. Many newbies seem to trip over the hyped brands that are merely a shadow's shadow of what they once were.

It's wonderful that FPJ is delivering the highest of standards.

jmho

Of course. The problem isn't the brand itself but dealers buying up stock and pumping up prices. I remember when the FPJ CB was $25~27k. Now it's $40+ with many at $45+. Nothing changed about the brand but everything changed about the market.

FPJ has therefore gone from a true enthusiast's brand to yet another victim of the hype machine.

[outdoors_guy]

It amazes me how many people say that FPJ (or fill in other watch brand) will hold its value because of the limited supply. That’s only half the equation. People have to actually want the watch, which drives the demand side. I’m not saying that FPJ is going to crash in price, but limited production numbers don’t by themselves stop prices from falling. Continued high demand will not persist forever. That is the nature of the collectibles market - it goes in waves and prices rise and crash without any change in available volume. Why should watches be any different?

[CHEY]

Originally Posted by outdoors_guy

It amazes me how many people say that FPJ (or fill in other watch brand) will hold its value because of the limited supply. That’s only half the equation. People have to actually want the watch, which drives the demand side. I’m not saying that FPJ is going to crash in price, but limited production numbers don’t by themselves stop prices from falling. Continued high demand will not persist forever. That is the nature of the collectibles market - it goes in waves and prices rise and crash without any change in available volume. Why should watches be any different?

This is on point.

These same people are ignoring the fact that the high asking prices are just what they are - asking prices. Watchbox has had these watches on its website for sale for months now. The vast majority of these watches are not moving at the inflated asking prices.

Also, let's not ignore how artificial the the price increases have been - mostly driven by a few watch dealers (again, mostly Watchbox/Govberg).

If you don't believe me, just go to chrono24. It's really just Watchbox. Every other listing of an F.P. Jounre is a Watchbox listing. LOLLLLLLLLL

My opinion is that it would be foolish to fall for Watchbox's corner-the-market play. The far better strategy is to wait it out. Cash flows and inventory level are important to a business like Watchbox, especially in this economy. Danny Govberg and George Mayer of Watchbox admitted in a video a few weeks ago that they had around 200 F.P. Journes in stock; they have subsequently taken down that video. Let's see how long Watchbox will last with hundreds of F.P. Journe watches in inventory.

[GB-man]

Probably a long time. Didn’t they report taking in a 100M cash infusion not long ago?

Still I agree and will not buy a journe knowing they dictate the online secondary market. I don’t know anyone outside TRF that has even heard of FPJ. I venture you could spend all day in nyc asking strangers what fp journe sells and get no right answers.

[sgwatchguy]

5 greys control >50% of the stock at least on C24, of which of which one has a third. So it’s all cooked.


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[CHEY]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Probably a long time. Didn’t they report taking in a 100M cash infusion not long ago?

Still I agree and will not buy a journe knowing they dictate the online secondary market. I don’t know anyone outside TRF that has even heard of FPJ. I venture you could spend all day in nyc asking strangers what fp journe sells and get no right answers.

I see, I wasn't aware of the 100M cash infusion. That would explain why Watchbox had the cash to buy such a significant amount of F.P. Journe watches in the secondary markets over a short period of time.

Watchbox's F.P. Journe play may not work out at the end. Although Mr. Journe produces absolutely beautiful watches in limited quantities (compared to Rolex and Patek), demand for F.P. Journe watches is also lower compared to these mainstream brands. Also, the broader trend in the watch industry has been more casual, sportier watches in steel. Not even the best modern Patek dress watches are able to command that kind of premiums. There is no indication that the trend will reverse any time soon. Watchbox's almost unilateral attempt at pushing for classical dress watches may work on the relatively few sophisticated high-end watch collectors, but unlikely on the broader market.

Going back to the 100M cash infusion, whoever injected the cash will likely expect some kind of returns in the foreseeable future. I hope they are patient because good luck selling complicated watches in precious metal on leather straps, at prices that were artificially inflated over a short period of time to boot!

Originally Posted by sgwatchguy

5 greys control >50% of the stock at least on C24, of which of which one has a third. So it’s all cooked.

Yep, those Watchbox F.P. Journe prices are all cooked!

[GB-man]

It’s part of a larger strategy to build the business not just for buying inventory.

[Amg7861]

I recently enquired at one of Journe’s UK dealers and was told it was a 25 year waitlist for the CB. I’m convinced he meant 2-5years. Who has a 25yr waitlist?!?!


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[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by CHEY

Watchbox's F.P. Journe play may not work out at the end. Although Mr. Journe produces absolutely beautiful watches in limited quantities (compared to Rolex and Patek), demand for F.P. Journe watches is also lower compared to these mainstream brands. Also, the broader trend in the watch industry has been more casual, sportier watches in steel. Not even the best modern Patek dress watches are able to command that kind of premiums. There is no indication that the trend will reverse any time soon. Watchbox's almost unilateral attempt at pushing for classical dress watches may work on the relatively few sophisticated high-end watch collectors, but unlikely on the broader market.

You are confusing two different markets. The mass market buys watches like GMTs, Subs, Aquanauts and 5711s. The type of people who buy FPJs are almost by definition not in the mass market, because so few watches are made. They've been through steel Rolexes and PPs, and are looking for something more interesting and exclusive.

All watch prices will fall in the next few months and years, but the more exclusive brands will not be affected to the same extent the mass market watches will. People will still pay for exclusivity. I doubt whether rare vintage Rolexes will fall very much for the same reason. Demand may be low, but so is supply.

[CHEY]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

You are confusing two different markets. The mass market buys watches like GMTs, Subs, Aquanauts and 5711s. The type of people who buy FPJs are almost by definition not in the mass market, because so few watches are made. They've been through steel Rolexes and PPs, and are looking for something more interesting and exclusive.

All watch prices will fall in the next few months and years, but the more exclusive brands will not be affected to the same extent the mass market watches will. People will still pay for exclusivity. I doubt whether rare vintage Rolexes will fall very much for the same reason. Demand may be low, but so is supply.

I am not confusing the two different markets. In fact, I clearly acknowledged the two separate markets when I said "Watchbox's almost unilateral attempt at pushing for classical dress watches may work on the relatively few sophisticated high-end watch collectors, but unlikely on the broader market."

So please read.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by CHEY

I am not confusing the two different markets. In fact, I clearly acknowledged the two separate markets when I said "Watchbox's almost unilateral attempt at pushing for classical dress watches may work on the relatively few sophisticated high-end watch collectors, but unlikely on the broader market."

So please read.

Thanks for helping me out there, I am rather unintelligent.

Tell me how "Watchbox's almost unilateral attempt at pushing for classical dress watches may work on the relatively few sophisticated high-end watch collectors, but unlikely on the broader market" was ever intended to work on the broader market.

These are niche products, not "broader market" products, so such a strategy (if it's even happening) could never work on the mass market because there aren't enough to go round.

[psv]

If everyone is content with what they are having, no one would buy new watches, thus it is in the sellers interested to push new brands.

Secondly, sellers would love to push Rolex but since they cannot get enough watches to meet demand, they are trying to sell other stuff.

Lastly, by pushing demand and desirability, sellers can charge more for their watches.

[Calatrava r]

I believe the market had really picked up for the older Journe some time ago, so the trend is not new and reflects the growing appreciation of the intrinsic quality of the brand.

[yonexsp]

Originally Posted by WatchEater666

I just got off the phone with a Canadian dealer. I was quoted prices lower than they are selling for used now with a wait time of 3 - 8 months depending on how COVID impacts things and that's with fairly high Canadian sales tax factored in. I will definitely wait a few months and get a brand new watch along with the full FPJ experience.

Can you send me the AD name by IM

[Blansky]

A couple of things:

I wonder if the recent trends of in person watch theft/muggings has encouraged some people to move away from Patek/Rolex watches and into less recognizable brands of watches.

And secondly, there is a lot of talk about the exclusive movements in these type of brands, but the downside is how difficult it may be in the future to get them serviced and the length of time to do that. Some of these brand may die with their "inventor".

[WatchEater666]

Originally Posted by Blansky

A couple of things:

I wonder if the recent trends of in person watch theft/muggings has encouraged some people to move away from Patek/Rolex watches and into less recognizable brands of watches.

And secondly, there is a lot of talk about the exclusive movements in these type of brands, but the downside is how difficult it may be in the future to get them serviced and the length of time to do that. Some of these brand may die with their "inventor".

Chanel is an investor in FPJ so I don't see them going away any time soon. Definitely a concern with the other independents that haven't taken outside capital though.

RE: "muggings". I'm not remotely concerned about that, but I do think Rolex owners are usually nouveau riche...I would never wear one to a business/work event because of it. It doesn't look good given my age...and I say that as a Rolex owner lol.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I believe the market had really picked up for the older Journe some time ago, so the trend is not new and reflects the growing appreciation of the intrinsic quality of the brand.

+1.

In comparison with Journe, who produce 800/year across all their lines, "hot" steel Rolexes and PPs are a dime a dozen, and there's thousands out there. Supply will soon outstrip demand.

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by MrBenF

Here are a few things about FP Journe:
- all his movements are designed and built in-house
- even his simplest time-only calibre is quite a departure from those used by traditional watchmakers (PP, VC, AP, ALS), ie twin barrels with the connection between the escapement and drive train on the dial side
- one of 3 watchmakers to produce a resonance wristwatch
- amongst his innovations is the chronograph calibre. It employs a unique architecture with separate power-trains for which he got a patent
- another more recent one is the QP. It’s a 120hr power reserve and the only one with an instantaneous jump QP
- only watchmaker to have won GPHG 3 times. He’s since withdrawn from the competition
- all his references share a unique design language
- his use of proprietary screws mean that they can be serviced by the manufacture. This is a good or bad thing depending on your point of view
- there’re other manufactures with better movement finishing at comparable price points (ALS) but he’s the only one (outside of micro independents) that construct his movements in 22c gold
- one watchmaker is responsible for the assembly for the entire watch. This is quite unique in the industry
- limited production is a plus for some and a negative for others. Personally I’m in favour of it

In summary, what draws me to FPJ is that he’s a movement guy and in that aspect, he’s right at the top of the hierarchy. Others may care little for that and prefer to emphasise brand prestige and aesthetics.

There’s certainly been a big run-up in secondary market prices in a short period of time which paradoxically has probably brought it to the attention of collectors. I’ll be watching with interest how this play out in the short to medium term

In terms of future viability that’s an open question that no-one can predicts. But Chanel taking a 20% is a positive development in that respect

On a side-note, Patek Philippe was in a precarious state when the Stern family took over in the 1930s. Under their stewardship the name has thrived. A lot of brands with long history folded during the quartz crisis but TS’s decision to invest and innovate ultimately saw the brand emerge stronger. Also I feel their marketing campaign (thought aimed at a niche market) is one of the strongest in history.

IMHO

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Excellent post.

[Swaye]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

I believe the market had really picked up for the older Journe some time ago, so the trend is not new and reflects the growing appreciation of the intrinsic quality of the brand.

This is exactly what happened. A brass FPJ went for some huge number (think it was around 250K) at an auction in November, and that had a couple of effects:

1) It pushed prices higher on discontinued stuff immediately
2) It made Govberg buy as many watches as they could get their hands on sensing a strong uptick (those who say Watchbox is influencing the market are 100% right but I just think they have it out of order - GB/WB was already a strong player in the FPJ market, and the first US AD I might add going back years, before the recent auction results, but after those auctions they bet big on FPJ).
3) I have been told by an FPJ collector that I trust that there have been several other auctions (mostly Asia) recently where FPJ continues to outperform expectations, even in an auction environment.

So, while I do agree that some market manipulation has occurred recently, most of this is being driven by strong auction results by big time collectors in Asia. No matter to me, I got the two I could afford before the explosion, and now I am priced out of most of the other models I love. It is what it is, but I am so happy to own what I do. They are phenomenal watches in so many ways. I personally think FPJ is here to stay, and in a big way, but only time will tell. If you love wearing the watches it really doesn't matter I suppose.

[Yk101]

FPJ makes great watches. Plain and simple. As for the CB price on the secondary market - try to ask your local boutique or dealer for one - you will be really surprised how big the wait list really is!
I love my PT Octa Luna 40. Unfortunately it has been quarantined in FLA service for now. Really miss it!

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[wisguy]

I like the watches, but I think they might have over produced.

There are just too many for sale, for what they produce, seems like way too many.

It's almost easier (not cheaper) to get one than a pre owned ALS or PP (dress of course).

Kinda takes away from the independent vibe? You don't see that many LF, RS, KV, PD out there, has FPJ become the most popular and abundant independent?

[ajas]

FPJ makes great watches and I wish could afford them at MRSP

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by wisguy

I like the watches, but I think they might have over produced.

There are just too many for sale, for what they produce, seems like way too many.

It's almost easier (not cheaper) to get one than a pre owned ALS or PP (dress of course).

Kinda takes away from the independent vibe? You don't see that many LF, RS, KV, PD out there, has FPJ become the most popular and abundant independent?

Interesting view I don’t see it. There’s like 6 resonance for sale online lol doesn’t make any sense I bet govberg has like 80 of them.

LF imho is not interesting enough to be in the conversation. I realize that’s highly subjective. RS and KV are just different level. Small batch hand made watches.

Journe is a bigger operation than most indies. Even so they make like what 1000 vs 5000 for ALS.

[snoware]

Clearly hype. Nothing else to be said. I adore FPJourne watches but seriously overpriced at grey right now.

I don’t recommend buying - go retail and the waiting list isn’t absurdly long as in PP/AP/RO


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[mdl25]

I'm kicking myself for not picking up an Octa Calendrier a few months ago when they were selling in the low thirties. Now Govberg has them all and is asking 80k .

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[BendyBee]

Originally Posted by MrBenF

Here are a few things about FP Journe:
- all his movements are designed and built in-house
- even his simplest time-only calibre is quite a departure from those used by traditional watchmakers (PP, VC, AP, ALS), ie twin barrels with the connection between the escapement and drive train on the dial side
- one of 3 watchmakers to produce a resonance wristwatch
- amongst his innovations is the chronograph calibre. It employs a unique architecture with separate power-trains for which he got a patent
- another more recent one is the QP. It’s a 120hr power reserve and the only one with an instantaneous jump QP
- only watchmaker to have won GPHG 3 times. He’s since withdrawn from the competition
- all his references share a unique design language
- his use of proprietary screws mean that they can be serviced by the manufacture. This is a good or bad thing depending on your point of view
- there’re other manufactures with better movement finishing at comparable price points (ALS) but he’s the only one (outside of micro independents) that construct his movements in 22c gold
- one watchmaker is responsible for the assembly for the entire watch. This is quite unique in the industry
- limited production is a plus for some and a negative for others. Personally I’m in favour of it

In summary, what draws me to FPJ is that he’s a movement guy and in that aspect, he’s right at the top of the hierarchy. Others may care little for that and prefer to emphasise brand prestige and aesthetics.

There’s certainly been a big run-up in secondary market prices in a short period of time which paradoxically has probably brought it to the attention of collectors. I’ll be watching with interest how this play out in the short to medium term

In terms of future viability that’s an open question that no-one can predicts. But Chanel taking a 20% is a positive development in that respect

On a side-note, Patek Philippe was in a precarious state when the Stern family took over in the 1930s. Under their stewardship the name has thrived. A lot of brands with long history folded during the quartz crisis but TS’s decision to invest and innovate ultimately saw the brand emerge stronger. Also I feel their marketing campaign (thought aimed at a niche market) is one of the strongest in history.

IMHO

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The market for FPJ has clearly been manipulated by Watchbox and Govberg. And MrBenF has listed good reasons why they are doing it...FPJ watches are great. Of course, Watchbox and Govberg are also doing it to maximise theirs profits but they can only do it for so long without real demand.

Personally, I agree that the inflated price will come down somewhat but not at MSRP for popular models like the CB.

It would be interesting see how the overall watch market will hold up against the coming economic crisis. Super strange time we are in.

[eviperman]

Originally Posted by CHEY

Your line of reasoning would make sense if the growth in the demand for F.P. Journe watches is organic. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Instead, Govberg/Watchbox has artificially inflated the secondary market prices for F.P Journe watches in the past year or so.

Quite simply, Watchbox cornered the market by buying hundreds of FP Journe watches and then jacked up the prices. This is blatant, unashamed price manipulation. This sort of corner-the-market play does not create additional value to end users/buyers and is just plain despicable. To me, this is much worse than the Nautilus bubble that is coming down now.

As a FPJ collector of many years I believe this to be NONSENSE.

The fact is, Watchbox have very little to do with pushing up the prices, they are merely responding to the AUCTION market. It is well known that you have minimal chance in obtaining a CB from an AD with a waiting list of 7+ years (which they are no longer adding names to), so a $45K price for a CB is less than a 100% markup on an incredibly limited piece (around 100 are made each year).

A 38mm Resonance and Prototype RdM sold for $250K at a public auction, so Watchbox increasing their prices for such pieces merely reflects the public pricing action.

FPJ is a great brand, make quality products, and have VERY limited supply with around 650-850 mechanical watches made each year. Only 2000 brass movement pieces were made between 1999-2004, and these are the ones that have shot up in price mostly.

Plus, there are many rare dial variations that are very limited (ie, less than 20 pieces), so these ofcourse are going to sell for incredible premiums because average Joe can't just go and buy these as they go to real collectors (and rightly so!).

Furthermore, besides the CB, every other "standard" FPJ watch on the Watchbox website is selling BELOW MSRP, not above. If you want something rarer, you either need to pay for that or accept a more common dial etc.