Availability going to get better?

[BroncoOne]

Even when Rolex production returns to normal pre-COVID levels you will not see more supply available to the average consumer. If you couldn’t get a steel Daytona in 2019 you won’t be getting one any more easily in2022.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by skp

Wouldn't basic business sense say that if you're selling every unit produced then you should increase production starting with the models with highest demand? I don't think Rolex is trying to artificially raise their preceived value and I think it's a production issue which they're going to have to address sooner than later.

It is actually the opposite for Rolex. Rolex plays the long game. It isn’t a publicly traded company focused on next quarter’s earnings so management can bonus out big. They are focused on holding the brand value over generations of watch wearers . In this regard, they are wildly successful and would be unlikely to change strategy.

[Oxfordian]

My AD believes that the availability issue with Rolex will improve but not for around another 6 months, Rolex is still playing catch up from COVID and the associated impact on production apparently.

[RLROCK]

Forgive me if this has been discussed before in other threads, but my AD told me that Rolex is building a larger facility in Switzerland along side the current facility that opened in Bienne in 2012. He said that facility should be up and running in two years time.

Is it true or a rumor? I cannot seem to find any news on this.

[stevecv]

Miami AD said June 2022- doesn't matter which model.

[RealMadrid1988]

“My AD said…”

“My AD said…”

“My AD said…”

Rolex does not share their strategy with random ADs, let alone with SAs at random ADs.

[GoingPlaces]

Isn't there a steel shortage?

[Cigars&Watches]

Originally Posted by RLROCK

Forgive me if this has been discussed before in other threads, but my AD told me that Rolex is building a larger facility in Switzerland along side the current facility that opened in Bienne in 2012. He said that facility should be up and running in two years time.

Is it true or a rumor? I cannot seem to find any news on this.

It is true. Post was made on another thread that someone who drives by daily to get to work is posting photos of the construction progress (another forum).

[Majin Buu]

We are at uncertain times ..
Only time will tell !

J.

[EndlessEight]

We are looking at a huge market correction in the US market, so I imagine the watch demand could curb with it.

IDK

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by Oxfordian

My AD believes that the availability issue with Rolex will improve but not for around another 6 months, Rolex is still playing catch up from COVID and the associated impact on production apparently.

Doesn't matter they still make far fewer watches than the demand right now.

There won't be a "catching up" until demand tapers.

[donas]

No way! It would seem impossible that so many other things are experiencing a shortage now or have one predicted in the near future and Rolex would experience the opposite. If you consider what is happening now as the new normal, then yes, all will be normal for years to come.

[telesquire]

This is all nonsense the reality is there have never been so many Rolex for sale as there are right now.....they just aren't at the AD's. Its fair to say there's a pretty hefty surplus too. The internet is stuffed full of unworn 2021 pieces and they have ALL come from AD's. Only Rolex and the AD's themselves can sort out this problem , if indeed they view it as one.
Personally I think Rolex should raise the MSRP's, they are clearly far too low if they list a SS Sub Date at £7350 yet the greys are selling them at £12000 they are seemingly doing something wrong. Put the squeeze on the grey market that way or better still Rolex should open their own showrooms and sell direct and stop all this embarrasing treatment from the AD's who exert pressure on buyers to purchase stuff they don't really want just to start a 'relationship' This is damaging the brand and certainly in this country in conflict with trading standards and the law. The things I read on here almost make me ashamed to have been a Rolex owner for the past 35 years.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by RLROCK

Forgive me if this has been discussed before in other threads, but my AD told me that Rolex is building a larger facility in Switzerland along side the current facility that opened in Bienne in 2012. He said that facility should be up and running in two years time.



Is it true or a rumor? I cannot seem to find any news on this.

True. A member on another forum lives in Biel/Bienne and he drives past the facility every morning in the way to work. He posted pics of the big cranes and the structure itself looks maybe about halfway completed, as of the pics from May. They are expecting it to be complete by the end of 2022 and it goes online at the start of 2023 if all goes well. By the end of 2023 they are projecting to produce approximately 25% more movements there.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[Mendota]

Here are the pics, taken from about May of this year.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[Oxfordian]

Originally Posted by EndlessEight

Doesn't matter they still make far fewer watches than the demand right now.

There won't be a "catching up" until demand tapers.

My apologies I wasn’t clear, the information was that the current level of supply is abnormal, the situation will improve in 2022, once Rolex has rebuilt stock to pre COVID levels.

In truth only Rolex knows what Rolex is going to do and when Rolex is going to do it.

But if we don’t impart what we get told from our AD’s the forum would be a much quieter place.

[jimcameron]

"Availability going to get better?"

Anticipate that the availability may be much worse for the forceable future.

The Taliban have just come into possession of Billions of $$ worth of material that much of which will be sold to the highest bidder. It will be no surprise to see them wearing the Daytona of your dreams.

[WBaileyii]

Originally Posted by BLNR Nairobi

Question though for you - while basic business sense may state that, what about a situation where the company is making a product that has been obsolete for decades (the mechanical watch). What if the company realizes that with the continued rise of wrist computers (the Apple/Samsung watches and their ilk) that the mechanical watch industry is facing an existential crisis similar (if not worse) than the Quartz Crisis that almost killed half of existing Swiss watch companies in the 70s? That many of the lower to mid tier watch companies will not survive, and even a couple of the higher ones (I look at you Moser and Girard perregaux on the higher end, although the mass die-off will MASSIVELY affect lower end watches that are within the strike radius of the smart watches) will not - with only the likes of Omega (which is trying to do what Rolex is doing by the way), Rolex, AP, Patek and a couple of others being the ones that will do well. What if the company realizes that the only way to not only survive but thrive would be to come as close to a Veblen good as possible? What if the company sees many of its competitors products spending months collecting dust in AD shelves, and in some cases with those products having to be bought back? Or the sizeable discounts present? And the company realizes that increasing production above a certain marker would bring the risk of dead stock should the current market, where every ‘asset’ is inflated, turn.

Increasing production (or price) beyond a certain level would be highly detrimental to Rolex, and they will not do it. They will increase production (and anyway, they currently sell more watches than their next three competitors - including Omega - combined), but it will be small and will not make a difference.

What they will do is maybe move from 800K-1m watches a year to maybe 1-1.3m a year, but no more than that.

Rolex - like Patek and AP (and increasingly, Omega) - want to survive a situation that will cull many watch brands.

Massively increasing production goes against that, and unfortunately any small increase will not make a difference in terms of increased availability. People talk about India demand taking over where China drops off. True. There are also other emerging markets that are also increasing purchase spend - some in places you wouldn’t believe, and which in the next 7 or so years will continue the baton exchange.

The way I see it is Tudor will become increasingly important, and Rolex will continue to be difficult to acquire. Even if Rolex increases production by a couple hundred thousand watches.

I believe that Tony hit the nail on the head. Rolex is not a "typical" company and they have survived and thrived by following their own unique philosophy.

[Robf52]

No; think this will continue until the next financial/economic calamity.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

But wait there was a thread the other day that said because of a SS shortage supply was drying up. Which is it? I don't know what interweb thread to believe.

Best to have a healthy scepticism of all

[skp]

Originally Posted by Jack T

Why have you waited two months to post this information??

So I was visiting Socal and just popped into a boutique at a high end mall while I was there with my family. The displays were empty and there were like 5 employees standing around doing nothing. At the time, I knew supply was bad but I didn't think much about it as I wasn't looking to purchase on my trip. I just recently looked into availability again and just remembered what I saw and what I was told and thought I'd try to put things into perspective.

[BLNR Nairobi]

Originally Posted by skp

So I was visiting Socal and just popped into a boutique at a high end mall while I was there with my family. The displays were empty and there were like 5 employees standing around doing nothing. At the time, I knew supply was bad but I didn't think much about it as I wasn't looking to purchase on my trip. I just recently looked into availability again and just remembered what I saw and what I was told and thought I'd try to put things into perspective.

Is it that supply is bad or that literally every single piece that is received is immediately sold?

A typical AD in a mid-to-large city would not be able to keep any references longer than a day (apart from 1. those being held for clients who are unable to immediately come to the store and/or 2. those kept in the safe for bundling/vvip purposes).

So, if a shipment is brought in on the 1st of September at noon, and you walk in a day later (or for that matter, a hour later - since they wouldn’t be put in display cases anyway, but instead left in the back as calls go out to VVIPs/legitimate wait lists/‘the safe’) …it would seem like there’s no supply.

Yet it’s because all of them were almost immediately allocated.

NB: Not to say there hasn’t been a decrease in supply due to covid etc, but even once the néw factory is up and running (and even if I could wave a wand and covid disappears), you’d still find empty displays since every piece that came through would already be allocated or stored.

[Harry_S]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Yes, things will eventually return to normal, but Covid is not over yet. Empty displays are not viable or desirable. Abysmal customer experience is not a viable long term strategy.

Going to an AD and you cannot try on the watch you want or even see it, or see any of the watches you're interested in, is ludicrous. Being told you have to buy what you don't want to even have a chance of buying your chosen Rolex damages the Rolex brand and loses Rolex £££ and customers. And having a situation where every spiv wants a Rolex to flip for a quick profit is off putting for the well healed, and ultimately costs Rolex. Watches seems to have caught the imagination of the amateur wheeler dealer looking for easy cash. Maybe, Covid has exacerbated that.

What has happened in recent years is abnormal and will not just continue indefinitely as we recover from Covid back to normality and Rolex addresses these issues. Some people are emotionally invested in the Rolex shortage/price increases because they feel their watch is worth more or they paid an inflated price. Or they are flippers.

I'll be glad when normal service is resumed. It is idiotic going to a fancy showroom - with empty display cases, and not being able to try stuff on. And having to wait months for a watch. Just ridiculous at the moment.

I could not have said it any better. Until the flippers who are supplying the greys are killed off there can be no return to normality.
Its a double edged sword unfortunately (1) Low supply helps prop up used values and in most cases over list price for the hot models and SS (2) Means you cannot see/buy/try on/at the mercy of the AD for anything Rolex.

[skp]

Originally Posted by BLNR Nairobi

Question though for you - while basic business sense may state that, what about a situation where the company is making a product that has been obsolete for decades (the mechanical watch). What if the company realizes that with the continued rise of wrist computers (the Apple/Samsung watches and their ilk) that the mechanical watch industry is facing an existential crisis similar (if not worse) than the Quartz Crisis that almost killed half of existing Swiss watch companies in the 70s? That many of the lower to mid tier watch companies will not survive, and even a couple of the higher ones (I look at you Moser and Girard perregaux on the higher end, although the mass die-off will MASSIVELY affect lower end watches that are within the strike radius of the smart watches) will not - with only the likes of Omega (which is trying to do what Rolex is doing by the way), Rolex, AP, Patek and a couple of others being the ones that will do well. What if the company realizes that the only way to not only survive but thrive would be to come as close to a Veblen good as possible? What if the company sees many of its competitors products spending months collecting dust in AD shelves, and in some cases with those products having to be bought back? Or the sizeable discounts present? And the company realizes that increasing production above a certain marker would bring the risk of dead stock should the current market, where every ‘asset’ is inflated, turn.

Increasing production (or price) beyond a certain level would be highly detrimental to Rolex, and they will not do it. They will increase production (and anyway, they currently sell more watches than their next three competitors - including Omega - combined), but it will be small and will not make a difference.

What they will do is maybe move from 800K-1m watches a year to maybe 1-1.3m a year, but no more than that.

Rolex - like Patek and AP (and increasingly, Omega) - want to survive a situation that will cull many watch brands.

Massively increasing production goes against that, and unfortunately any small increase will not make a difference in terms of increased availability. People talk about India demand taking over where China drops off. True. There are also other emerging markets that are also increasing purchase spend - some in places you wouldn’t believe, and which in the next 7 or so years will continue the baton exchange.

The way I see it is Tudor will become increasingly important, and Rolex will continue to be difficult to acquire. Even if Rolex increases production by a couple hundred thousand watches.

Originally Posted by beshannon

Rolex is not a basic business and does not care about this

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

It is actually the opposite for Rolex. Rolex plays the long game. It isn’t a publicly traded company focused on next quarter’s earnings so management can bonus out big. They are focused on holding the brand value over generations of watch wearers . In this regard, they are wildly successful and would be unlikely to change strategy.

Originally Posted by WBaileyii

I believe that Tony hit the nail on the head. Rolex is not a "typical" company and they have survived and thrived by following their own unique philosophy.

More than half of the people I know have a sub or sea dweller and it's because in many cultures, the groom gifts the bride an engagement ring and the bride gifts the groom a luxury watch. Some people I know have more than one Rolex and it's only for the brand appeal and not because they know or care anything about watches. The reason I love the brand is because I'm a watch enthusiast but ultimately the joy I get from a piece is from the feel of it on my wrist. Rolexes feel solid without being too bulky and even the tool watches have a level of design and finish that are instantly distinguishable. I can see a Rolex on someone else's wrist and admire it from afar. I'm not putting down any other brand but I think Rolex has many angles covered in terms of "surviving a culling". I'm thinking that the Apple watch probably didn't steal a single sale from a potential Rolex buyer.

I feel like Rolex could increase production of their professional series without hurting the appeal for the luxury buyer. The number of people who can afford a $10K+ watch is increasing rapidly and I think Rolex should try and meet that increase in potential buyers. 800K to 1M would be a good start but if the increase was controlled through actual orders with non-refundable deposits then they could increase until saturation without too much risk right? They should take a look at Porsche. It's not impossible to get the Porsche equivalent of SS subs and gmts.

[Jackie Daytona]

No. They don’t have any clue. They will just keep stringing you along any way they can until you spend money on something there.

[skp]

Originally Posted by RealMadrid1988

“My AD said…”

“My AD said…”

“My AD said…”

Rolex does not share their strategy with random ADs, let alone with SAs at random ADs.

Originally Posted by Oxfordian

My apologies I wasn’t clear, the information was that the current level of supply is abnormal, the situation will improve in 2022, once Rolex has rebuilt stock to pre COVID levels.

In truth only Rolex knows what Rolex is going to do and when Rolex is going to do it.

But if we don’t impart what we get told from our AD’s the forum would be a much quieter place.

I can see how there are many reasons an AD might not be the best source for information. But what about boutiques? A boutique doesn't have another lifeline because they can only sell Rolex right? I would think that they are situated in locations that cost quite a lot for rent/lease. A closing of a boutique would propably look pretty bad and so I would assume that Rolex is providing some legit information to them at least.

[HideMyWalletPlease]

Even if supply increases a bit, the ADs will still decide who gets a watch. They cannot just put available watches out anymore. If everything is trading above retail, then they have to hide it in the back.

Display watches will be out for viewing.

[Snerks]

Originally Posted by HideMyWalletPlease

Even if supply increases a bit, the ADs will still decide who gets a watch. They cannot just put available watches out anymore. If everything is trading above retail, then they have to hide it in the back.

Display watches will be out for viewing.

This. ADs arent going to just put out and freely sell any pieces that sell above retail. They'll continue to (smartly) use them as leverage to sell other things.

[skp]

Originally Posted by HideMyWalletPlease

Even if supply increases a bit, the ADs will still decide who gets a watch. They cannot just put available watches out anymore. If everything is trading above retail, then they have to hide it in the back.

Display watches will be out for viewing.

I think they are going towards display models without movements which will be the new norm at ADs.

If they introduce an ordering system with non-refundable deposits then everyone who wants one can receive a queue number and then Rolex just has to manage production for the queue.

[Snerks]

Originally Posted by skp

I think they are going towards display models without movements which will be the new norm at ADs.

If they introduce an ordering system with non-refundable deposits then everyone who wants one can receive a queue number and then Rolex just has to manage production for the queue.

You buy your watch from the AD, not from Rolex