Market correction. YES or NO

[Plastique999]

Originally Posted by kentheevil

For me personally I think after the craze for heavily recognized watch (Rolex, nauti, royal oaks) soften the price of these should reduce as well but probably not after the holiday. And having recently acquired the zeitwerk by trading in a rg daytona makes me feelthat the market is simple bonkers


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[Qimchi]

I think price will stay high...supply is still very limited.

Hmm...feels like diamond after awhile...

[BrunoMalik]

Absolutely not. I met most of the watch brands at Onlywatch and every single one of the independents has a waitlist. Not to mention the auction results were super strong.

This is just starting. Luxury watches are still a niche and big boys are just getting involved now.

I will not name names but one collector offered a certain independent brand to purchase their whole 2023 and 2024 production (cca 1000 watches / $30mn) and just let the brand keep it in their safe. And no, its not one of the bluechip independents like FPJ either.

Furthermore, a Tudor sold for 800k. And you think Rolex prices will come down soon?

Wake up folks


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[WatchingAustin]

Originally Posted by cascavel

Why do you guys worry about this while interest rates are 0 (zero) in the U.S. and - (negative) in Germany, Europe's strongest economy, and the central banks of the world are printing money as fast as they can.
Does anyone here pay any attention to the US stock market? Trillions of dollars being created. And 90% of it goes to people who already have more money than they know what to do with.
Did anyone notice what that Omega sold for at Phillips?
No correction.

Agreed. Not only is money being printed, but now everyone is moving up market since they have more money. I have friends who never cared about watches asking me about ones I purchased 5 years ago.

I think things will be going up quite a bit.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by WatchingAustin

Agreed. Not only is money being printed, but now everyone is moving up market since they have more money. I have friends who never cared about watches asking me about ones I purchased 5 years ago.

I think things will be going up quite a bit.

I don't try to speculate on watch prices, but this phenomenon of non watch people now caring about watches, I've observed that as well in my social circles.

Forget the insta crowd, when the 7 figure plus annual income people start feeling the need to compete with the Jonses, watch out!

[raclaims]

The number of younger people I know who are looking to cash out their crypto and buy heavily into watches is mind blowing.

They haven't even started buying yet...it's gonna keep going up for a while.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by raclaims

The number of younger people I know who are looking to cash out their crypto and buy heavily into watches is mind blowing.

They haven't even started buying yet...it's gonna keep going up for a while.

That's interesting. I know some people like that too, but not sure I'd call them young.

Genuine question, are they cashing out into watches because they've always wanted them but didn't have the money before crypto, or do they see it as the next easy money class like sneakers? Or what's the reasoning they chose watches over anything else possible?

[Nav01L]

And yet, the auctions were but lukewarm this year. Only Journe was strong, and even there we saw a CB go for mid 60ies at Christies today.

[Beatnutz]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Absolutely not. I met most of the watch brands at Onlywatch and every single one of the independents has a waitlist. Not to mention the auction results were super strong.

This is just starting. Luxury watches are still a niche and big boys are just getting involved now.

I will not name names but one collector offered a certain independent brand to purchase their whole 2023 and 2024 production (cca 1000 watches / $30mn) and just let the brand keep it in their safe. And no, its not one of the bluechip independents like FPJ either.

Furthermore, a Tudor sold for 800k. And you think Rolex prices will come down soon?

Wake up folks

Not saying you are wrong, but your comment is like a cut & paste from any trading forum ever, just before a crash happens. A correction doesn't happen when prices are not skyrocketing. It happens when you are the most comfortable and optimistic. When the frenzy is peaking. So any reference to "this and that watch sold for this much" is not exactly a valid argument.

But yeah, we could continue on for a while longer. Who knows.. nobody I guess.

[BrunoMalik]

Originally Posted by Beatnutz

Not saying you are wrong, but your comment is like a cut & paste from any trading forum ever, just before a crash happens. A correction doesn't happen when prices are not skyrocketing. It happens when you are the most comfortable and optimistic. When the frenzy is peaking. So any reference to "this and that watch sold for this much" is not exactly a valid argument.

But yeah, we could continue on for a while longer. Who knows.. nobody I guess.

I understand what you mean.

But this is nowhere near peak frenzy. Another anecdotal evidence is Many Koshbin just started “investing in watches”. He has been a car collector for ages and now just starting with watches. Have a look at his watch collection video.

As said before, the big boys are just starting to get involved. And they are not stupid money.


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[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by curare78

Does anyone out here besides me think that aftervthe holidays there will be a market correction? Or with the current supply/demand mismatch continue to drive this market up?

I realize no one has a crystal ball but just curious what fellow collectors think.

TY
SB

Why after the holidays? Why not after the first day of spring? What is your reasoning here?

Seems to me you think just because prices are high that there will be a correction.

That is not how it works. Prices only drop when demand drops, period

[Gladiat0r]

A lot of local people I know have just gotten into watches. A few years ago nobody talked watches. It was cars, real estate, stocks…now watches are more of the talk than anything. I only got into watches the past 3-4 years myself. This past year it’s really taken off. And just now, I will have others actually compliment me on the watch and know exactly what it is. Just an observation but one that I think ties into this conversation. Watch fans and collectors have grown exponentially. And like BrunoMalik stated above, some big car collectors are just learning about the watch game. I’ve seen it in my circle of friends, neighbors, and family and I’m assuming this is happening all over.

[MP777]

Originally Posted by Gladiat0r

A lot of local people I know have just gotten into watches. A few years ago nobody talked watches. It was cars, real estate, stocks…now watches are more of the talk than anything. I only got into watches the past 3-4 years myself. This past year it’s really taken off. And just now, I will have others actually compliment me on the watch and know exactly what it is. Just an observation but one that I think ties into this conversation. Watch fans and collectors have grown exponentially. And like BrunoMalik stated above, some big car collectors are just learning about the watch game. I’ve seen it in my circle of friends, neighbors, and family and I’m assuming this is happening all over.

+1 to this, watches are here to stay

[xjeeunitx]

Considering it will be 50th anniversary for the Royal Oak, I only see prices going up from this point on for the near future. I am calling it now. By January 2021, you will see blue dial 15202ST at $120K and blue dial 15500ST at $80K.

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Gladiat0r

A lot of local people I know have just gotten into watches. A few years ago nobody talked watches. It was cars, real estate, stocks…now watches are more of the talk than anything. I only got into watches the past 3-4 years myself. This past year it’s really taken off. And just now, I will have others actually compliment me on the watch and know exactly what it is. Just an observation but one that I think ties into this conversation. Watch fans and collectors have grown exponentially. And like BrunoMalik stated above, some big car collectors are just learning about the watch game. I’ve seen it in my circle of friends, neighbors, and family and I’m assuming this is happening all over.

One clue to the sudden growth of watches in the popular psyche, is in watching films from 10-20 years ago. I was watching Jerry Maguire the other day and super sports agent Tom Cruise was wearing a Tag, as indeed was Jason Bourne, but now this super agent would at least be wearing a gold Rolex or an AP/RM. Even Gordon Gekko only wore a Cartier in Wall St, now that would be a gold Patek all day long.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by AK797

One clue to the sudden growth of watches in the popular psyche, is in watching films from 10-20 years ago. I was watching Jerry Maguire the other day and super sports agent Tom Cruise was wearing a Tag, as indeed was Jason Bourne, but now this super agent would at least be wearing a gold Rolex or an AP/RM. Even Gordon Gekko only wore a Cartier in Wall St, now that would be a gold Patek all day long.

To your point, I did notice in Billions when I finally watched it this year that Axelrod went from Cartier in season one to AP in season 2.

I do wonder if we have arrived at the point where Patekholic claimed we arrived already 2 years ago of watches as an established asset class like art work is. and I only muse on that in the sense that you have very small production like RM that succeeded. Then FPJ repeated the feat. At least for FPJ pre Chanel investment, that has to be like buying artwork from a workshop at such low volumes. Will a 3rd/4th/5th small watch artisian succeed and will a future will say 100 distinct independents all thrive be possible?

[AK797]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

To your point, I did notice in Billions when I finally watched it this year that Axelrod went from Cartier in season one to AP in season 2.

I do wonder if we have arrived at the point where Patekholic claimed we arrived already 2 years ago of watches as an established asset class like art work is. and I only muse on that in the sense that you have very small production like RM that succeeded. Then FPJ repeated the feat. At least for FPJ pre Chanel investment, that has to be like buying artwork from a workshop at such low volumes. Will a 3rd/4th/5th small watch artisian succeed and will a future will say 100 distinct independents all thrive be possible?

Hard to argue it is not now seen as a prized asset class, and now only just behind cars as a broad wealth signifier to more than just watch geeks. I think this was solidified when the Pandemic hit and had the potential to be the grey/black swan that finally killed or cooled the bull market, but that did not happen and watches, like most in demand luxuries, saw their prices actually rise.

[AperolSpritz]

I fundamentally don't think there will be a correction.

However what I don't fully grasp is the proportion of current demand being seized by pure flippers who see watches as financial investments and the impact of grey dealers living on the hype and further intensifying it. Current market parameters are just a virtuous or vicious (depending how you look at it) circle that is unlikely to change if there is not a big shock to the system.

And should there be one, the answer to both my points above would affect the impact of the correction which could go from mild to severe.

I'll remind this crowd that 3 years ago a 5980 rose gold was selling at a 20% discount to retail and is now going at a 210% premium. But we all know that and there are dozens of such examples.

My advice, buy what you like at retail...

[AperolSpritz]

Originally Posted by AK797

Hard to argue it is not now seen as a prized asset class, and now only just behind cars as a broad wealth signifier to more than just watch geeks. I think this was solidified when the Pandemic hit and had the potential to be the grey/black swan that finally killed or cooled the bull market, but that did not happen and watches, like most in demand luxuries, saw their prices actually rise.

And cars are going to eventually fall behind as well in my view...

[GoingPlaces]

One thing we have learned from recent geopolitical events is that rich get richer during a crisis. Rates, inflation, employment, seem to have very little to do with luxury watches and G wagons.
No one knows if watches continue on this steep trajectory or the curb flattens out but prices won't fall. More millionaires today than yesterday, this will continue and thats all the luxury markets care about.

[macrowatch]

I suppose the question is always correction relative to what?

From recent McKinsey research paper: “ Net worth worldwide rose to $514 trillion in 2020, from $156 trillion in 2000, according to the study. China accounted for almost one-third of the increase. Its wealth skyrocketed to $120 trillion from a mere $7 trillion in 2000, the year before it joined the World Trade Organization, speeding its economic ascent.”

That’s a whole lot is AP’s/PP/Rolexes!

I also find it amusing when I listen to news and the reporters accidentally use the word billion instead of trillion, as a sign of how bizarre and uncommon it used to be to say Trillion but now is more common place.

[tifamo]

Is the US economy overdue for a correction? I think the answer is probably yes

Now, when currency devalues, stock market tanks, interest rate hovers around 0%, watches become a better storage of value than conventional options. So no, I think any macroeconomic correction will strengthen the watch market instead of tanking it

And let's not forget that ADs now have piles and piles of info cards that they're probably just trashing at the end of every month. These demand won't go away, and it's not like Switzerland can double its number of watchmakers. The supply and demand gap will only grow larger over time

[Plastique999]

Flying to the moon


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[TunaTuna]

Originally Posted by curare78

Does anyone out here besides me think that aftervthe holidays there will be a market correction? Or with the current supply/demand mismatch continue to drive this market up?

I realize no one has a crystal ball but just curious what fellow collectors think.

TY
SB

Hahaha how that theory holding up??

[BrunoMalik]

With all the Russian trying to get money at ATMs and convert out of RUB, i think the demand for watches will skyrocket. The smart grays catering to this market will make a fortune.


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

With all the Russian trying to get money at ATMs and convert out of RUB, i think the demand for watches will skyrocket. The smart grays catering to this market will make a fortune.

Authorities might take a somewhat more grim view towards laundering Russian money than previously, but fortune favors the brave, presumably.

[BrunoMalik]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Authorities might take a somewhat more grim view towards laundering Russian money than previously, but fortune favors the brave, presumably.

Its not laundering, can be honest money too. But needs to move out of RUB and out of Russia to avoid the new sanctions, SWIFT ban etc


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by BrunoMalik

Its not laundering, can be honest money too. But needs to move out of RUB and out of Russia to avoid the new sanctions, SWIFT ban etc

I think I see the problem right there

[shafran]

Watches in Russia cannot be sold out of he country for the last few years. Dealers have had to smuggle them out

[Xerxes77]

AP it’s stronger now and because have only boutique control the sell…. So I don’t think this will happen….. maybe worst