Prices in anticipated 2023 recession ...

[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by Kirk Lazarus

I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

Damn. I'd like to report a murder

[Car32]

Originally Posted by Kirk Lazarus

I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853768

Wow this is INSANE!!! Massive price decreases and also increases which boggles my mind.

[ThatOtherGuy7]

Don’t know what pricing will be, but if Rolex Daytona goes up to $16K MSRP + tax, It’ll probably have to drop out even if the call comes in. I don’t think it’s an almost $20K watch. My backup option is GMT Batman. Even if price goes up on it a little, I can still justify the purchase. $10-15K is just about the most I’d spend on a watch.

[amh]

Originally Posted by ThatOtherGuy7

Don’t know what pricing will be, but if Rolex Daytona goes up to $16K MSRP + tax, It’ll probably have to drop out even if the call comes in. I don’t think it’s an almost $20K watch. My backup option is GMT Batman. Even if price goes up on it a little, I can still justify the purchase. $10-15K is just about the most I’d spend on a watch.

Don't forget, the Daytona is an easy flip for 100% profit. Why would you turn it down? Stay on the list.

GMT is also seemingly immune to the purported "crash", easy 50% fat if it turns out you don't want it. Even horribly dented pieces going for 1.5x.

[Alex369]

I think right now the grey dealers are trying to buy their way out of a falling market by acquiring watches at very low offers to hedge against their otherwise very overpriced stock. This will only get them so far, though. By March they will need to start dumping watches they are holding, if only slightly hedged by the cheaper acquisitions...

[huncho]

Originally Posted by amh

Don't forget, the Daytona is an easy flip for 100% profit. Why would you turn it down? Stay on the list.

GMT is also seemingly immune to the purported "crash", easy 50% fat if it turns out you don't want it. Even horribly dented pieces going for 1.5x.

i think daytonas are going for high 20s now so probably less than 100%. i'd guess you get offered something like 23-25k for one today. thats like 50-75% profit after taxes. still good but not as crazy as before

[Mathematoxic]

Almost if not all Two-tone models below msrp. Most Steel datejust below msrp. Two tone datejust way below msrp. Most day-dates below msrp. Most SS sports models at or slightly above msrp(Only reason for saying this is because these are the last of the very last carrots ADs have. So they will do all they can to tell you there is no stock hahaha). PM Subs, GMTs, Yacht masters below msrp. Most PM Daytona at or below msrp. Steel Daytona(ceramic) slightly above msrp.
I do not want to make a prediction for Cellini.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Alex369

I think right now the grey dealers are trying to buy their way out of a falling market by acquiring watches at very low offers to hedge against their otherwise very overpriced stock. This will only get them so far, though. By March they will need to start dumping watches they are holding, if only slightly hedged by the cheaper acquisitions...

This. Nothing is moving at the moment. What happened to that holiday stimulus everyone was talking about?

[LC23]

Originally Posted by S7gpt

well I am certainly no expert but what I have seen in the last 6 months is price increases from AD's and reductions in the grey market !

2x

[dwjez14]

I bet prices still stay strong during recession. The smart people find ways to make money and continue to buy luxury items

[NCRolexguy]

Originally Posted by amh

Don't forget, the Daytona is an easy flip for 100% profit. Why would you turn it down? Stay on the list.

GMT is also seemingly immune to the purported "crash", easy 50% fat if it turns out you don't want it. Even horribly dented pieces going for 1.5x.

The GMT's have definitely come down, just slower. Now on MODA the BLRO is BNIB 18k and sometimes under and the BLNR is 16-17k BNIB.

This means greys are offering much less than that, if anything at all to GMT flippers.

[NCRolexguy]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

I bet prices still stay strong during recession. The smart people find ways to make money and continue to buy luxury items

That didn't happen in 2008. The forums were clogged with people unloading Rolex and other luxury brands. Prices were driven down to a point that seems absurd today.

[cts]

There will be no recession according to our fearless steadfast leader. Nothing at all to worry about. Keep spending as fast and as much as you can possibly afford, regardless of the price tag! We are in spectacular shape as a nation.

[Rolexatlast]

Originally Posted by amh

Don't forget, the Daytona is an easy flip for 100% profit. Why would you turn it down? Stay on the list.

GMT is also seemingly immune to the purported "crash", easy 50% fat if it turns out you don't want it. Even horribly dented pieces going for 1.5x.

GMT values are dropping at around £1000 per month. Won’t be long before a flipper would lose money on them. Any grey dealers with a draw full of stock will be hurting badly.

[amh]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

GMT values are dropping at around £1000 per month. Won’t be long before a flipper would lose money on them. Any grey dealers with a draw full of stock will be hurting badly.

Well they were indeed dropping, but in the last month or so they've actually gone up. The crash has stalled.

[shammad10]

Originally Posted by Rolexatlast

GMT values are dropping at around £1000 per month. Won’t be long before a flipper would lose money on them. Any grey dealers with a draw full of stock will be hurting badly.

You would actually find it hard to flip a watch currently much, if at all above retail in the UK

[S.Explorer]

The stall seems to be a last hurrah for Christmas, then I'd expect more price drops to come.

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by jayprezzi

Price will increase yoy. This will help combat the grey market.

Lol

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by dwjez14

I bet prices still stay strong during recession. The smart people find ways to make money and continue to buy luxury items

Smart people find ways to take money and stick it into safe, high yielding vehicles. CD's, Treasuries, etc.

If my AD called me today for a LV sub or another GMT I would pass at msrp. Its not because I don't have the money either. There are a lot of other high end luxury purchases I plan to pass on as well going into 2023. I know I am not the only one.

[S7gpt]

after checking a few grey dealers, lucky if you could sell a brand new BLRO for anything more than 20% above retail. Suspect this will continue to drop in new year to the point its not worth it for flippers even for these watches - hope so anyway !

[WatchGuy1966]

Remember a whole industry of cupcake shops was born in the most recent recession of 2008.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by JSolution

I was going to comment it’s pretty petty to bring up a members old post but that is actually quite funny

Damn that's harsh but on point .

I think the FS followed the pattern of what the Germans call "Gier frisst Hirn". Happy googling


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[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by Kirk Lazarus

I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853768

One of my favorite things is when we see 35k, then 16k, then wait things are going up let me up it to 17k . Fully delusional.


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[Swiftneck]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

As most Grey Market Youtubers like to say: there may be a market correction, but the bubble hasnt burst yet, and i doubt it will
Especially now that Rolex is in the CPO game. They now have the ability to directly control the new and pre owned markets
Allowing ADs to discount makes little sense when you can now restrict supply in a down market and shunt your customers over to the CPO case

So a 50% decrease in prices on the most hyped watches is not a bubble busting?

And Rolex will change there business model from selling new watches with 5-20.000 margin. And start selling warranty cards for old watches 200 bucks a piece instead.

Listening to grey market youtubers is properly the last thing you want to do if you care about your money..



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[dauster]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

One of my favorite things is when we see 35k, then 16k, then wait things are going up let me up it to 17k . Fully delusional.


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just went thru it hahahhahah love it thanks for sharing - was pepsi ever at 35k?

[Skabadi]

Originally Posted by Swiftneck

So a 50% decrease in prices on the most hyped watches is not a bubble busting?

And Rolex will change there business model from selling new watches with 5-20.000 margin. And start selling warranty cards for old watches 200 bucks a piece instead.

Listening to grey market youtubers is properly the last thing you want to do if you care about your money..



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Using your logic that would up the price of preowned if rolex is less focused on new

[Swiftneck]

Originally Posted by Skabadi

Using your logic that would up the price of preowned if rolex is less focused on new

Yes of course prices will go up if they produce less new watches, and put all their effort in resale of old pieces. But I don't think they will.

I think Rolex have been waiting to introduce their CPO program until now/spring 2023 because they know we will reach a more normal market within the next half year. A market where used watches sells below new ones at AD's for almost every model.

And when the next bull market start in 6-7 year, the new faktory will be ready to meet demand.

If Rolex knew that they would never meet demand, they would have increased msrp to marketprice, and take the money for them self, and te AD's instead of giving it to flippers and grey market.

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[Skabadi]

Originally Posted by Swiftneck

Yes of course prices will go up if they produce less new watches, and put all their effort in resale of old pieces. But I don't think they will.

I think Rolex have been waiting to introduce their CPO program until now/spring 2023 because they know we will reach a more normal market within the next half year. A market where used watches sells below new ones at AD's for almost every model.

And when the next bull market start in 6-7 year, the new faktory will be ready to meet demand.

If Rolex knew that they would never meet demand, they would have increased msrp to marketprice, and take the money for them self, and te AD's instead of giving it to flippers and grey market.

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That’s possible but it’s a very weak argument imho. Rolex craves exclusivity so will never want their products to be sold on the cheap. Look at Bucherer, they are already selling CPO way above market price. Once the CPO program solidifies its only a matter of time when greys will follow suit - probably slightly cheaper to be competitive

[Swiftneck]

double posting..

[Swiftneck]

Originally Posted by Skabadi

That’s possible but it’s a very weak argument imho. Rolex craves exclusivity so will never want their products to be sold on the cheap. Look at Bucherer, they are already selling CPO way above market price. Once the CPO program solidifies its only a matter of time when greys will follow suit - probably slightly cheaper to be competitive

I agree that Rolex would want a stabil secondary market, which I think there new CPO program will help them with. But I think it will be ln another level than now.

I also agree that they could have interest in the exclusivity that less supply than demand on a few models gives, but again not to the extend of the current market where no watches are avalible at AD's.

I don't think that the current price level seen on CPO watches from bucherrer is an indicator of the future for CPO price level from AD's.

I do think the CPO will be more expensive than grey prices in general, and the grey market in general will be fine. I think the CPO is a program for the normal Rolex buyer, who want a new watch every 5 or 10 years, and can sell his old watch easily. And for new young customers who can buy a used piece a bit cheaper, with the same experince as normal buy an AD.

And i do think that the CPO program is partly nessesary marketing talking into the future of circular business models with reuse of resources.

That's just how i sees it. But only time will give us the right answers.