Talking Stocks 2.0

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by PeqFB

I bought Tesla right at the split announcement and sold 50% of my holdings for a nice profit. Continued to buy and sell at the dips/peaks. Playing with house money so I’m not overly concerned that it’s over priced and I’ll hold for long term.
Not a fan of Bitcoin but thinking of buying a Bitcoin index fund as a hedge and diversity. Looking at GBTC and BITW.

I just bought a small amount of GBTC that seems like the easiest way to get into it.

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by beshannon

10 year Treasury just hit 1.013%

Bond market expecting inflation. Too soon I believe and I would also be watching for tech weakness to be a buyer. Tech has had a stellar run, profit taking today is expected given the news, long term tech will be fine.

Gold and bonds both moving together- these days it seems they are highly correlated to one another- almost a 1.0 coefficient.

Personally I feel that gold and bonds are both a hedge against the stock market doing poorly. I don't buy the whole "gold as a hedge against inflation argument"- people buy them when they are fearful of losing their shirts in stocks. In reality any yielding or appreciating asset or commodity for that matter is a hedge against cash doing poorly. Glad to see that treasury yields are going up. If we get to a point where the long bond is hitting 4-5% then I will be a happy buyer.

I've recently built my own google sheet that scrapes web data from a variety of sources (finviz, google finance) and then manipulates that data to show me key metrics that I'm interested in. Similar to a "foward p/e ratio," I've created a "5 year forward P/E" that uses analyst consensus estimates EPS growth estimates over the next 5 year period. While this does factor in that growth, it does not factor in share buybacks. Obviously 5 years is extremely difficult to predict, so it's important to factor in your own convictions and confidences when thinking about a company and their management, product line, IP/moat, competition, etc. In this regard, investing is oftentimes a leap of faith to trust that assumptions are reasonable.

For example, AAPL is currently trading around a ~22 five year forward P/E based on analyst consensus estimates.
While this is definitely a very expensive valuation, especially relative to the company's history, apple's extremely aggressive share buybacks of ~6% per year for the past will likely continue given they have just about the strongest balance sheet in the world. 94% of shares outstanding left after a given year to the 5th (5 years) would mean that in 5 years there will be ~73% of the current shares outstanding of the company. So each share you own today could be approximately 36% more valuable in 5 years then if they continue on this trajectory. This actually leads me to the conclusion that even though some of the tech giants are "overvalued" when thinking about historical pricing, the stock prices are still likely to continue on their warpath and climb higher over the next 5 years. Considering the fact that apple also pays out a yearly dividend yield that is also compounding, I'm still fairly comfortable buying at this valuation with a 20-30 year time horizon.

Based on my analysis, google, adobe, and microsoft are also still buys at these levels for me as well. Both have huge balance sheet strength, predictable revenues and profits, solid gross and operating margins, big moats of intellectual property, strong free cash flow, best of breed brand strength and pricing power, and aggressive share buyback programs. Similar to AAPL, Microsoft also has a great dividend growth history story going for it as well. In the past few years, google has moved from issuing shares to buying them back, and the rate of buyback has increased quarter over quarter since they started this program in 2018. Adobe is also slowly ratcheting up their buyback percentage on a quarterly basis.

While certain areas of tech are most definitely overvalued with regard to the more recent up and comers- zoom, square, teladoc, tesla (I don't think these valuations are reasonable even when thinking about a 10 year forward basis, and am skeptical whether they will ever be able to actually grow into them), many of the more established hardware and software makers are actually trading at valuations that have room to grow and a "5 year margin of safety" in the next 5 years if you compare them to historical valuations.

As a disclaimer, I am long AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, GOOG, DIS, JPM, ADBE, SBUX (10 largest holdings and ~50% of total portfolio). Most of my other investing is sector based ETFs. I've said it here before, but AMD and NVDA are by far my most speculative plays trading at the highest valuations, but I am bullish about both of these companies- their leadership, their technology and lead against the competition, their revenue/earnings/free cash flow trends, consumer sentiment and product pipeline, and the outlook for highest price per performance CPU and GPU in gaming, AI and machine learning, and other high computational demand applications. I joined a discord server of 80,000+ (yes I just said a discord server with 80 THOUSAND in it) people trying to poach the latest CPU and GPU offerings from both of these companies, all I can say is good luck getting one at retail. They sell out within seconds upon restocking. It took me over a month of attempts at online stockings to get my hands on a Ryzen 7 5800x and an RTX 3090 (finally secured one from best buy yesterday). Many of these new CPU and GPU offerinegs sell for as high as 50% premiums on secondary markets. The demand (domestic and International) is absolutely insane and nothing like I've seen in the computing hardware space.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Gold and bonds both moving together- these days it seems they are highly correlated to one another- almost a 1.0 coefficient.

Personally I feel that gold and bonds are both a hedge against the stock market doing poorly. I don't buy the whole "gold as a hedge against inflation argument"- people buy them when they are fearful of losing their shirts in stocks. In reality any yielding or appreciating asset or commodity for that matter is a hedge against cash doing poorly. Glad to see that treasury yields are going up. If we get to a point where the long bond is hitting 4-5% then I will be a happy buyer.

I've recently built my own google sheet that scrapes web data from a variety of sources (finviz, google finance) and then manipulates that data to show me key metrics that I'm interested in. Similar to a "foward p/e ratio," I've created a "5 year forward P/E" that uses analyst consensus estimates EPS growth estimates over the next 5 year period. While this does factor in that growth, it does not factor in share buybacks. Obviously 5 years is extremely difficult to predict, so it's important to factor in your own convictions and confidences when thinking about a company and their management, product line, IP/moat, competition, etc. In this regard, investing is oftentimes a leap of faith to trust that assumptions are reasonable.

For example, AAPL is currently trading around a ~22 five year forward P/E based on analyst consensus estimates.
While this is definitely a very expensive valuation, especially relative to the company's history, apple's extremely aggressive share buybacks of ~6% per year for the past will likely continue given they have just about the strongest balance sheet in the world. 94% of shares outstanding left after a given year to the 5th (5 years) would mean that in 5 years there will be ~73% of the current shares outstanding of the company. So each share you own today could be approximately 36% more valuable in 5 years then if they continue on this trajectory. This actually leads me to the conclusion that even though some of the tech giants are "overvalued" when thinking about historical pricing, the stock prices are still likely to continue on their warpath and climb higher over the next 5 years. Considering the fact that apple also pays out a yearly dividend yield that is also compounding, I'm still fairly comfortable buying at this valuation with a 20-30 year time horizon.

Based on my analysis, google, adobe, and microsoft are also still buys at these levels for me as well. Both have huge balance sheet strength, predictable revenues and profits, solid gross and operating margins, big moats of intellectual property, strong free cash flow, best of breed brand strength and pricing power, and aggressive share buyback programs. Similar to AAPL, Microsoft also has a great dividend growth history story going for it as well. In the past few years, google has moved from issuing shares to buying them back, and the rate of buyback has increased quarter over quarter since they started this program in 2018. Adobe is also slowly ratcheting up their buyback percentage on a quarterly basis.

While certain areas of tech are most definitely overvalued with regard to the more recent up and comers- zoom, square, teladoc, tesla (I don't think these valuations are reasonable even when thinking about a 10 year forward basis, and am skeptical whether they will ever be able to actually grow into them), many of the more established hardware and software makers are actually trading at valuations that have room to grow and a "5 year margin of safety" in the next 5 years if you compare them to historical valuations.

As a disclaimer, I am long AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, AMD, GOOG, DIS, JPM, ADBE, SBUX (10 largest holdings and ~50% of total portfolio). Most of my other investing is sector based ETFs. I've said it here before, but AMD and NVDA are by far my most speculative plays trading at the highest valuations, but I am bullish about both of these companies- their leadership, their technology and lead against the competition, their revenue/earnings/free cash flow trends, consumer sentiment and product pipeline, and the outlook for highest price per performance CPU and GPU in gaming, AI and machine learning, and other high computational demand applications. I joined a discord server of 80,000+ (yes I just said a discord server with 80 THOUSAND in it) people trying to poach the latest CPU and GPU offerings from both of these companies, all I can say is good luck getting one at retail. They sell out within seconds upon restocking. It took me over a month of attempts at online stockings to get my hands on a Ryzen 7 5800x and an RTX 3090 (finally secured one from best buy yesterday). Many of these new CPU and GPU offerinegs sell for as high as 50% premiums on secondary markets. The demand (domestic and International) is absolutely insane and nothing like I've seen in the computing hardware space.

Bonds and gold may be more correlated in an environment without inflation. Once inflation takes hold, bonds won’t be looking so good.

Btw congrats on your 3090 rig! Loving my RTX 3080

[chadwick4eva]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Bonds and gold may be more correlated in an environment without inflation. Once inflation takes hold, bonds won’t be looking so good.

Btw congrats on your 3090 rig! Loving my RTX 3080

Thank you thank you- I think I'm obligated to make an "INCOMING" thread once I have it in hand...lol. Where did you manage to score a 3080? They seem to be the hardest of the bunch to buy.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Thank you thank you- I think I'm obligated to make an "INCOMING" thread once I have it in hand...lol. Where did you manage to score a 3080? They seem to be the hardest of the bunch to buy.

They sure are tough to get, too many bots and slimy resellers imo.

That said, I went with a pre-build this round with the shortages. Was able to negotiate a A.ware R11 with 10700kf and 3080 to the ~$2k mark and decided to go with it. I was debating on going with the 3090 and was so close to dropping the extra, but settled on the 3080. Turn Ray Tracing on and the new RDNAs are closer to the 2080 Super and 2080TI imo. I'll probably look to a 4090 when LoveLace architecture is released.

The 5800x with 3090 is going to be an absolute beast. CyberPunk and/or COD CW are two awesome demos of the tech. Metro Exodus is pretty darn good too. What are you playing?


On a related note, I have to think Nvidia stock may be hitting a secular growth trend. Their deep learning DLSS and Ray Tracing are just head and shoulders above anything coming new from AMD RDNA imo. AMD kind of juiced their performance figures by focusing on FPS without Ray Tracing in their more recent demos. 5800x seems like a gaming beast (especially for anything CPU driven under 4k). Seems like Nvidia has a few factors working in their favor longer-term. One of the most-exciting may be RTX I/O.

[RyanO]

What’s the reason for the selloff, the protestors storming the Capitol?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JParm]

Originally Posted by RyanO

What’s the reason for the selloff, the protestors storming the Capitol?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pretty much...again, short-term pain here. Shrugging this off.

[RyanO]

Certainly a roller coaster of a day. A bit frustrating, but need to think long term and stay the course.

My tech heavy portfolio started the day deep in the red, then I thought we were making some progress on a return to sanity - but that didn’t last long. Shrug.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[asloper6001]

Today felt like 2020 all over again. Maybe in February we can start 2021. Unreal.

[beshannon]

Futures positive this morning, MMM cut to under perform

https://seekingalpha.com/news/364951...k-in-blue-wave

I am long MMM and will review my position

Jobs numbers today and tomorrow

[JParm]

Not surprising to see Futures up after this morning's confirmation news and yesterday's selling pressure.

It's all just short-term noise; drown out the emotions and understand why we're in a good place to remain invested.

[jaisonline]

I know many of us trade stocks using insider share unlocking info. E.g. SNOW :)

In my DKNG brokerage news feed, I saw a recap about the impact share unlocking had on that stock starting early Oct.

Well it’s nothing new, it’s still nice quick read especially for newer investors. I did follow the share lock info for Oct & was lucky enough to make some nice profit buying, selling , rinse, & repeat. Basically traded my position 3x. Have the same amount of shares now that I started with on Oct. 1.
Now the option strategy would have been more profitable but even as a seasoned investor, I didn’t go that route. Just used stop sell limits instead. Next time & w/ like SNOW (thanks 7Sins for the heads up), I will continue going to options route. PLTR Is the tea interesting one now with 80% being unlocked 3 days after the next earnings call announcement but I wonder if we will be seeing as much selling in this stock as the others. PLTR has their little cult following & unlock some IPOs & Direct Listings, they didn’t go public with only 10% of total shares. PLTR went with 20%.


“Benzinga's PreMarket Prep airs every morning from 8-9 a.m. ET. During that fast-paced, highly informative hour, traders and investors tune in to get the major news of the day, the catalysts behind those moves and the corresponding price action for the upcoming session.

On any given day, the show will cover at least 20 stocks determined by co-hosts Joel Elconin and Dennis Dick along with producer Spencer Israel.

There are many different catalysts that can move issues higher or lower. Some are obvious like earnings reports and rating changes, but some others are not as widely followed. For example, price action in an issue ahead of the day of a lock-up expiration.

With that being said. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is the PreMarket Prep Stock Of The Day.

What Does A Lock-Up Expiration Mean? An IPO lock-up period is the term used to define a period of time after a company has gone public when major shareholders are prohibited from selling their shares. Lock-up periods usually last between 90 to 180 days and may vary for different types of shareholders. Once the lock-up period ends, most trading restrictions are removed.

Typical Price Action Ahead Of Lock-Up Date: Some savvy investors track the lock-up expiration dates for all of the current IPOs and may take a short position ahead of the actual date in anticipation of large blocks of stock being for sale. Of course, there is no guarantee that any insider selling at all, but that does not necessarily delegitimize the point of the essence of the strategy.

Another consideration that the preemptive sellers take into account is the previous price action ahead of the actual date. For example, if an issue has been in a prolonged downtrend, it is less likely that insiders will want to unload shares at a discount to its former price.

Recent Price Action: Since bottoming on Oct. 30, 2020, at $34.90, DraftKings embarked on a $20 rally and finally peaked Dec. 18 at $55.98. After a few days of consolidation in the $52-$54 area, it had a significant down day on Dec. 28, falling from $52.11 to $48.98 on no news.

It's impossible to determine if the retreat was just some good ole profit-taking or preemptive sellers ahead shorting the issue ahead of the lock-up expiration date.

Continuation Move Lower Into Expiration: Interestingly, the issue drifted lower right into Tuesday's lock-up expiration. In fact, the issue reached its lowest level since its late December peak.

After a lower open, it just breached Monday's low ($44.50) hitting $44.10 and sharply reversed course and ended the session at higher by nearly $3 at $47.50 and tacked on another $4 earlier today when it peaked at $51.80 and has sharply reversed course. As of 1 p.m. ET, it has retreated to the $49 area.

Therefore, late sellers of the strategy that did cover early in Tuesday's session found themselves scrambling to cover in a rising market.

PreMarket Prep Take On This Strategy: The producer of the show explained the scenario for DraftKings and cautioned that 'there is no guarantee that there is going to be large sellers on the actual date."

Co-host Dennis Dick discussed the 'anticipatory selling strategy."

"Sellers that were waiting for a lot of follow-through beyond Monday's low ($44,50) got the rugged pulled out from under them as the issue rallied for the remainder of the session," he said.”

Skip to 31:37

https://youtu.be/BiFxOTFcYHQ

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/07/tech...ton-vance.html

Tech tailwinds continue into the new year.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I know many of us trade stocks using insider share unlocking info. E.g. SNOW :)

In my DKNG brokerage news feed, I saw a recap about the impact share unlocking had on that stock starting early Oct.

Well it’s nothing new, it’s still nice quick read especially for newer investors. I did follow the share lock info for Oct & was lucky enough to make some nice profit buying, selling , rinse, & repeat. Basically traded my position 3x. Have the same amount of shares now that I started with on Oct. 1.
Now the option strategy would have been more profitable but even as a seasoned investor, I didn’t go that route. Just used stop sell limits instead. Next time & w/ like SNOW (thanks 7Sins for the heads up), I will continue going to options route. PLTR Is the tea interesting one now with 80% being unlocked 3 days after the next earnings call announcement but I wonder if we will be seeing as much selling in this stock as the others. PLTR has their little cult following & unlock some IPOs & Direct Listings, they didn’t go public with only 10% of total shares. PLTR went with 20%.


“Benzinga's PreMarket Prep airs every morning from 8-9 a.m. ET. During that fast-paced, highly informative hour, traders and investors tune in to get the major news of the day, the catalysts behind those moves and the corresponding price action for the upcoming session.

On any given day, the show will cover at least 20 stocks determined by co-hosts Joel Elconin and Dennis Dick along with producer Spencer Israel.

There are many different catalysts that can move issues higher or lower. Some are obvious like earnings reports and rating changes, but some others are not as widely followed. For example, price action in an issue ahead of the day of a lock-up expiration.

With that being said. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) is the PreMarket Prep Stock Of The Day.

What Does A Lock-Up Expiration Mean? An IPO lock-up period is the term used to define a period of time after a company has gone public when major shareholders are prohibited from selling their shares. Lock-up periods usually last between 90 to 180 days and may vary for different types of shareholders. Once the lock-up period ends, most trading restrictions are removed.

Typical Price Action Ahead Of Lock-Up Date: Some savvy investors track the lock-up expiration dates for all of the current IPOs and may take a short position ahead of the actual date in anticipation of large blocks of stock being for sale. Of course, there is no guarantee that any insider selling at all, but that does not necessarily delegitimize the point of the essence of the strategy.

Another consideration that the preemptive sellers take into account is the previous price action ahead of the actual date. For example, if an issue has been in a prolonged downtrend, it is less likely that insiders will want to unload shares at a discount to its former price.

Recent Price Action: Since bottoming on Oct. 30, 2020, at $34.90, DraftKings embarked on a $20 rally and finally peaked Dec. 18 at $55.98. After a few days of consolidation in the $52-$54 area, it had a significant down day on Dec. 28, falling from $52.11 to $48.98 on no news.

It's impossible to determine if the retreat was just some good ole profit-taking or preemptive sellers ahead shorting the issue ahead of the lock-up expiration date.

Continuation Move Lower Into Expiration: Interestingly, the issue drifted lower right into Tuesday's lock-up expiration. In fact, the issue reached its lowest level since its late December peak.

After a lower open, it just breached Monday's low ($44.50) hitting $44.10 and sharply reversed course and ended the session at higher by nearly $3 at $47.50 and tacked on another $4 earlier today when it peaked at $51.80 and has sharply reversed course. As of 1 p.m. ET, it has retreated to the $49 area.

Therefore, late sellers of the strategy that did cover early in Tuesday's session found themselves scrambling to cover in a rising market.

PreMarket Prep Take On This Strategy: The producer of the show explained the scenario for DraftKings and cautioned that 'there is no guarantee that there is going to be large sellers on the actual date."

Co-host Dennis Dick discussed the 'anticipatory selling strategy."

"Sellers that were waiting for a lot of follow-through beyond Monday's low ($44,50) got the rugged pulled out from under them as the issue rallied for the remainder of the session," he said.”

Skip to 31:37

https://youtu.be/BiFxOTFcYHQ

PLTR is interesting because it has something like 70% of their shares owned by the public, wonder if it just continues to stay flat because everyone who wanted to get in already has gotten in and that's why it went crazy a few months ago. i own leaps for it but it's been a bit sad watching it

i still wanna get into dkng eventually but i feel like the price now wont budge too much for a while. they need more states to open up betting for it to really grow. at least cuomo said he's gonna push for NY to legalize online sports betting now

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by huncho

PLTR is interesting because it has something like 70% of their shares owned by the public, wonder if it just continues to stay flat because everyone who wanted to get in already has gotten in and that's why it went crazy a few months ago. i own leaps for it but it's been a bit sad watching it

i still wanna get into dkng eventually but i feel like the price now wont budge too much for a while. they need more states to open up betting for it to really grow. at least cuomo said he's gonna push for NY to legalize online sports betting now

Maybe some bad NY news for DKNG. Apparently, Cuomo thinks the state should run it instead of casinos. Yeah, that will work well if implemented.

One key area about DKNG (& Flutter w/ FanDuel) that keeps getting overlooked is the daily fantasy (DFS) biz.

I can’t understand for the life of me why the investment media keeps talking about DKNG in the same breath as MGM, RSI, PENN, etc... on top of that, DIS has a minor stake in DKNG so they are doing more partnerships with it & ESPN. It’s like the bean counting media and investor haven’t even opened both DKNG apps to actually see what is offered & how things work.

Flutter (pdypy) & DKNG generate ample revenue w/ DFS. E.g. for every $50k prize pot contest, they keep $20k. Last weekend, I joined a $20 buy-in DFS NFL contest where the prize pot was $3m (DKNG kept $600k after collecting $3.6m). Furthermore, you only need to be 18 years old to play DFS.

The only reason I bought DKNG last Spring is because of DFS. Until the other companies have DFS, Flutter & DKNG will have the leg up. I’ve been using it for DFS for over 3 years now. Great product. I do like FanDuel but didn’t like the OTC aspect.

[hkuo]

Jpeezy, are you buying the dip on MGNI today regardless of the sell report/accusation that was released today?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Jpeezy, are you buying the dip on MGNI today regardless of the sell report/accusation that was released today?

I bought last week at the $30ish mark - down nearly 25% since I bought but I have no intentions of selling since I see this as a winner in the long-term (similar to a TTD due to CTV). Not adding at the moment though because I see myself as fully invested in it...and I'm out of cash.

Short-term noise. A lot of talk that the Spruce group is short the stock.

[hkuo]

I’m in the same boat as you lol. Thanks for all your contributions and insight in the thread!

[JParm]

Originally Posted by hkuo

I’m in the same boat as you lol. Thanks for all your contributions and insight in the thread!

I lied - I bought a few in-the-money weekly calls for next week...I think this is overdone, but don't take my word for it! Low risk bet that we'll rise back up to $25. Looking good so far...

[JParm]

Anyone notice that Seeking Alpha is now charging a subscription to read all articles? I know in the past they had a premium account option, but I can no longer access any articles without the paywall.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Anyone notice that Seeking Alpha is now charging a subscription to read all articles? I know in the past they had a premium account option, but I can no longer access any articles without the paywall.

Not what I am seeing, perhaps you are not logged in or clicked on a pay to read article?

[logo]

Wow FDX really not cooperating

[0xalate]

What is happening with $SNOW today? Isn’t another lockup expiring today?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not what I am seeing, perhaps you are not logged in or clicked on a pay to read article?

Ok, thanks.

I've noticed in the past that some articles were premium but it seems like everything I'm clicking on is requiring it now. I'll do some digging...

[-dustin]

Looks like I hit my 5 free articles per month, which I don't recall there being a limit previously. That's kind of annoying.

--edit--

This is odd, too....my "profile" on seekingalpha is "mjb" with an email addy of michael----@yahoo.com.

My name isn't Michael, no one's used this computer except me, and there's no one associated with my company named Michael.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by logo

Wow FDX really not cooperating

Yeah. Not cooperating at all.
Currently, performing like my (6 still not delivered since late Nov.) lost inbound packages.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Anyone notice that Seeking Alpha is now charging a subscription to read all articles? I know in the past they had a premium account option, but I can no longer access any articles without the paywall.

I also noticed some changes to that site. E.g. an article might be free to read for X days and then transitions to needing a subscription for reading.

[JParm]

If it has indeed changed, I'm not going to be paying extra. Good info there, but Barron's and FinTwit supplies very good info as well.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by hkuo

I’m in the same boat as you lol. Thanks for all your contributions and insight in the thread!

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I lied - I bought a few in-the-money weekly calls for next week...I think this is overdone, but don't take my word for it! Low risk bet that we'll rise back up to $25. Looking good so far...

Sold out of half the calls in a couple hours at 43% gain. Let's see where the rest of them take us into next week.

[hkuo]

Nice!