Talking Stocks 2.0

[gabrielnovar]

As much as I kind of hate to say it . Bitcoin has a good shot of rolling to 150-350k this time around. All my friends are getting tired with stocks and day by day they are texting on how to buy bitcoin with their profits.

the moon shot in that could put tesla to shame....then I guess we pick our exit price and GTFO lol

[logo]

Originally Posted by chsu74

BB is the backbone for android enterprise email software now. Not sure it is a pump as much as it is a turn around.

Yes I agree, but would argue it is “pumping” because it’s being recognized as undervalued. Semantics, but not all pumps follow with a dump

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by logo

Yes I agree, but would argue it is “pumping” because it’s being recognized as undervalued. Semantics, but not all pumps follow with a dump

I’m not sure there will be a dump either so I bought so I don’t miss out. Either way it’s just a small position and I like the direction they are heading


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[JParm]

MGNI - hope you all held on...

I generally disregard "news" from known short sellers.

[HTXlex]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

MGNI - hope you all held on...

I generally disregard "news" from known short sellers.

My options are up over 100% that were purchased Jan 7. Took some profits today, letting a few ride.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

MGNI - hope you all held on...

I generally disregard "news" from known short sellers.

I held


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[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/19/netf...-earnings.html

NFLX misses on EPS but strong subscriber numbers and potential for future buybacks sending it up.

No position (I think the NFLX boat has sailed for me personally), but this first tech earnings is sending the rest of tech up as well. Could be setting us up for some strong numbers throughout the next couple of weeks as other companies report.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/19/netf...-earnings.html

NFLX misses on EPS but strong subscriber numbers and potential for future buybacks sending it up.

No position (I think the NFLX boat has sailed for me personally), but this first tech earnings is sending the rest of tech up as well. Could be setting us up for some strong numbers throughout the next couple of weeks as other companies report.

Hope so. Getting tired of seeing MSFT at 215.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Hope so. Getting tired of seeing MSFT at 215.

Big tech has definitely been consolidating for awhile - really since last earnings. Seeing FB, AMZN and GOOGL have been frustrating to stare at as well.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Big tech has definitely been consolidating for awhile - really since last earnings. Seeing FB, AMZN and GOOGL have been frustrating to stare at as well.

Absolutely. I’ve got a good chunk of my portfolio across the big boys of AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/AAPL so I’m hoping for some movement.

Anyone with thoughts on TSLA leading into earnings? Bought them right at the S&P announcement and they’ve run up a ton. Kind of worried, but also could see this keep going. Obviously valuation is insane, but of come to terms with the notion that there are other factors at play for TSLA specifically.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by logo

Absolutely. I’ve got a good chunk of my portfolio across the big boys of AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/AAPL so I’m hoping for some movement.

Anyone with thoughts on TSLA leading into earnings? Bought them right at the S&P announcement and they’ve run up a ton. Kind of worried, but also could see this keep going. Obviously valuation is insane, but of come to terms with the notion that there are other factors at play for TSLA specifically.

I would not play options with TSLA earnings - but I plan to hold my long position in the stock for quite awhile.

Every time we think we're at the top for the stock, it just continues on up. At my age (37), I'd rather go along for the ride than to cash out and miss out on any further potential profit. Yes, valuation is high - but they have continued to prove that their product is very desired, and there's nothing glaring (outside of the valuation) that says the Elon Musk superfans are dropping off anytime soon.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I would not play options with TSLA earnings - but I plan to hold my long position in the stock for quite awhile.

Every time we think we're at the top for the stock, it just continues on up. At my age (37), I'd rather go along for the ride than to cash out and miss out on any further potential profit. Yes, valuation is high - but they have continued to prove that they their product is very desired, and there's nothing glaring (outside of the valuation) that says the Elon Musk superfans are dropping off anytime soon.

Yeah that’s kind of what I was thinking as well. In Musk we trust, I guess.

[AshCashEmAll]

Hoping I could get some advice. 7sins gave an example of a pharmaceutical play in AUPH. I was not able to buy any contracts because I will not be approved for options until tomorrow. With premiums getting as high as they are what is the best play?


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[logo]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Hoping I could get some advice. 7sins gave an example of a pharmaceutical play in AUPH. I was not able to buy any contracts because I will not be approved for options until tomorrow. With premiums getting as high as they are what is the best play?


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I'm no options professional, but it seems to me there will be enormous IV crush if this stock does not make a substantial move. You'll want to check vega and do some math.

I bought LMT calls today. IV was relatively low despite the fact earnings is approaching, and it's a solid business with a high degree of space industry exposure, so I'm hoping for a bit of a rebound over the next few weeks.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Hoping I could get some advice. 7sins gave an example of a pharmaceutical play in AUPH. I was not able to buy any contracts because I will not be approved for options until tomorrow. With premiums getting as high as they are what is the best play?


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Originally Posted by logo

I'm no options professional, but it seems to me there will be enormous IV crush if this stock does not make a substantial move. You'll want to check vega and do some math.

I bought LMT calls today. IV was relatively low despite the fact earnings is approaching, and it's a solid business with a high degree of space industry exposure, so I'm hoping for a bit of a rebound over the next few weeks.

That is correct and why I suggested to buy a short OTM put to hedge against AUPH. If they do not get their approval this week, they have zero revenue and the price will collapse, short term put will benefit greatly in that situation as IV crush takes over. IV is sky high because the market is expecting a big move either way. If they do get approval, I suspect the stock should rise and CEO has already noted he will consider all BO offers, I suspect around $30.

Stock should move vastly one way or another, which is why I am in a calendar spread. Risk here is if the stock goes sideways. Just to re-iterate, I used AUPH as an example, not a recommendation as it highly speculative.

Lastly, you guys should ALWAYS do your due diligence before making any investments. Open a paper trading account so you can practice buying and selling options before you use real money.

@logo, I have a large position in Jan 2022 leaps for LMT, I agree and think it is oversold. Options are very cheap. I'm sure you saw Cathie from ARK was buying last week as well. They usually do well around Earnings, they just need some good news as a catalyst to move the stock, most of which is confidential, but a bit of good news as they expand/focus on space for gov and commercial customers. This is evident with their recent Aerojet Rocketdyne acquisition.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

That is correct and why I suggested to buy a short OTM put to hedge against AUPH. If they do not get their approval this week, they have zero revenue and the price will collapse, short term put will benefit greatly in that situation as IV crush takes over. IV is sky high because the market is expecting a big move either way. If they do get approval, I suspect the stock should rise and CEO has already noted he will consider all BO offers, I suspect around $30.

Stock should move vastly one way or another, which is why I am in a calendar spread. Risk here is if the stock goes sideways. Just to re-iterate, I used AUPH as an example, not a recommendation as it highly speculative.

Lastly, you guys should ALWAYS do your due diligence before making any investments. Open a paper trading account so you can practice buying and selling options before you use real money.

@logo, I have a large position in Jan 2022 leaps for LMT, I agree and think it is oversold. Options are very cheap. I'm sure you saw Cathie from ARK was buying last week as well. They usually do well around Earnings, they just need some good news as a catalyst to move the stock, most of which is confidential, but a bit of good news as they expand/focus on space for gov and commercial customers. This is evident with their recent Aerojet Rocketdyne acquisition.

Nice. I just did a few March $375 as they took the biggest hit when I was looking today, with the plan (hope) to sell in the next 2-4 weeks. I figure we either see a short-term catalyst and start climbing back up, or we don't and sit hovering or sell off a bit more. So I deferred purchasing larger order LEAPs until after the earnings call in case of the latter scenario.

[spurwar]

7sins - appreciate you sharing some tips on this forum as well as some trade ideas. I have been playing around with options lately and traded some of your suggestions, with mixed results so far (still learning!). A question I have is how do you think about exiting an options trade, considering the time factor and IV. Any tips on thinking about when to lock in gains vs. letting it ride would be appreciated. One example is SNOW - knowing there was another lockup period expiring in March, what made you decide to sell vs. hold? I am still holding but am currently at a slight gain (~10%). Another is GILD - given that it has made a good run, does it make sense to cash in and buy again on any dips? Thanks!



Are you still in this trade? Huge 30%+ day for our option, running past $5.50, up over 6% on news MS upgraded PT to $83. Finally a nice win for GILD after months of treading water.[/QUOTE]

[0xalate]

Originally Posted by spurwar

7sins - appreciate you sharing some tips on this forum as well as some trade ideas. I have been playing around with options lately and traded some of your suggestions, with mixed results so far (still learning!). A question I have is how do you think about exiting an options trade, considering the time factor and IV. Any tips on thinking about when to lock in gains vs. letting it ride would be appreciated. One example is SNOW - knowing there was another lockup period expiring in March, what made you decide to sell vs. hold? I am still holding but am currently at a slight gain (~10%). Another is GILD - given that it has made a good run, does it make sense to cash in and buy again on any dips? Thanks!



Are you still in this trade? Huge 30%+ day for our option, running past $5.50, up over 6% on news MS upgraded PT to $83. Finally a nice win for GILD after months of treading water.

[/QUOTE]

This! Would love 7sin's take as well. My track record going one way or the other is pretty mediocre.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by spurwar

7sins - appreciate you sharing some tips on this forum as well as some trade ideas. I have been playing around with options lately and traded some of your suggestions, with mixed results so far (still learning!). A question I have is how do you think about exiting an options trade, considering the time factor and IV. Any tips on thinking about when to lock in gains vs. letting it ride would be appreciated. One example is SNOW - knowing there was another lockup period expiring in March, what made you decide to sell vs. hold? I am still holding but am currently at a slight gain (~10%). Another is GILD - given that it has made a good run, does it make sense to cash in and buy again on any dips? Thanks!



Are you still in this trade? Huge 30%+ day for our option, running past $5.50, up over 6% on news MS upgraded PT to $83. Finally a nice win for GILD after months of treading water.

[/QUOTE]

[QUOTE=0xalate;11211065]

This! Would love 7sin's take as well. My track record going one way or the other is pretty mediocre.

This is just my .02 and my recommendation normally to clients is you never want to swing for a home run as you will often strike out. Singles and doubles win the game and enough shavings create a pile. Just remember, there is NEVER anything wrong with taking a profit. I think it is human psychology to think well if I would have stayed in the position longer, I would have made X more instead of saying I already made X%. This takes a long time to effectively come to terms with and not chase large returns. Multiple small wins can add up to a higher total return than one large win.

Unfortunately there is no golden selling rule, each trade is different based on conviction. Couple things to think about:

STOP LIMIT ORDER: This is critical when protecting your gains. I always target at least a 20% gain (normally 30-40% depending on my conviction but lets keep it simple) on any of my underlying securities and option trades. So lets say your apple call has appreciated from $5 to $6 for a 20% gain. Keeps rising and the call is now worth $6.50. I would place a stop limit order for $6, if the call option retraces back to $6 a limit sell order is triggered to execute at a certain price. You can use a sell stop order too only difference is that instead of a limit order it becomes a market order - this is better used for stocks. You can see a very large gap down on options on an off day so it is important to use a stop limit order.

If the apple call option continues to rise, I will typically raise my stop limit order with it to protect further gains - I ALWAYS put in a buffer for a volatile day, that is just my personal strategy. You need to set a target price for your stock as well. For example, you asked about my snow put. Stock was $400 when I purchased the put, I figured the flow was $250 based on purchasing volume and where I saw strong technical support, so I figured anything under $300 would be reasonable for me to cash out. Once it broke $300, I put in my limit order which was triggered. Could I have made more money on those puts? Absolutely. I walked away with over 140% profit, in my price target zone and I wanted to exit with an expiration approaching. I believe stock price holds for a bit until news picks up on upcoming 300m share unlock in March in which I will re-enter my put position.

If the trade gets away from me, I will continue to dollar cost average. If the option is coming up on 3 months to expiration (assuming I have held the position for several months) and I am not happy with where the option stands, I will roll the option to a later date before Theta kicks in hard. I've learned to roll out of options instead of selling and then seeing the option recover, it just needed more time for my theory to play out - that is why I started with, your sell strategy depends on your conviction.

LET YOUR GAINS RIDE: The other strategy I employ when I have a large gain is to reduce or eliminate my initial investment and let the gains ride. IE if I put $50k into xyz option, few weeks/months go buy and it is worth $70k, I will usually take out a portion of the $50k initial investment, if not all of it, then let the $20k continue to work on the option (I will implement a stop limit order on my gain too). That way you can take your initial investment and allocate elsewhere. Also if an option becomes too far deep ITM, because you got the call right, you will not see as much price upside. For those options that really appreciate, 300%+ I use a PM approach and once a position becomes too large of a position in my portfolio I begin trimming to re-allocate monies elsewhere. Personal preference there and this is more so when I think a stock becomes overbought. My own strategy is to never size a position more than 15% of my portfolio and I always have different expiration calls and puts in rotation depending on how the market evolves.

The aforementioned will help with your decisions on when to sell, you need to take into consideration how many days are left in the option too. If expiration is coming, you will have theta decay, so the value of the option could decline even though the stock price is rising. This is why I NEVER try to time options with weekly options or even monthlies (exceptions of course depending if there is a near term catalyst but I always hedge short term options), most of the time I aim for at least 6+ month expirations to give my theories time to play out - as I am patiently waiting on FDX, if I bought shorter term options I would have been burned.

Hope that helps everyone, I learned many of the strategies above the hard way and let large gains erode when I could have had multiple smaller wins that would have led to a much higher total return over that timeframe. Also by taking gains and trimming positions, it allows you to use the monies to build new positions that you would have otherwise missed out on.

Hectic day at work but I am writing the portion on how to use covered calls and write calls/puts to generate very safe levels of income streams, will post soon.

[spurwar]

7sins - appreciate the thoughtful response. This is super helpful and gives me a lot to think about for my current positions. I am sitting on FDX as well and have DCA'd along the way so keeping my fingers crossed for a turnaround!

[7sins]

Originally Posted by spurwar

7sins - appreciate the thoughtful response. This is super helpful and gives me a lot to think about for my current positions. I am sitting on FDX as well and have DCA'd along the way so keeping my fingers crossed for a turnaround!

You are very welcome. I know watching the price can feel like the above waiting for it to run but "paytience" here will pay off. This is also why you should have multiple trades and ideas working for you to offset volatility in others. If you lose conviction, it is okay to take a loss too. FDX is my largest position holding but very disappointing the last few weeks. Market didn't take the news well today of their layoffs, which was more due to overlap of positions with their merger with TNT express. Ultimately this will help margins. Vol is low, when money rotates back into this sector you should see money rotate into FDX. I suspect it will run high into ER as people try to play the report.

[beshannon]

Financials continue to do well, MS with a solid beat.

I am long JPM and MS

[JParm]

Seeing a lot of beats on earnings, which to me says that analysts were overestimating the impact that COVID would have on a lot of these businesses.

I would pay more attention to company guidance and where they're headed than anything else.

On another note, a sign of what's driving the market from year's past. The TikTok video is something else:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ro...%3D1611147515#

[JParm]

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/20/jim-...e-rollout.html

The pump continues. Is it euphoria, or the truth?

I'm going with the latter - I've been a pretty big bull for awhile, and that doesn't change for 2021.

[AshCashEmAll]

Bought 290c FedEx for April! Wish me luck


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[logo]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Bought 290c FedEx for April! Wish me luck


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I think many of us stand strong with you on this one haha

[logo]

I added to my GEVO position today following a nice dip from a direct offering of 43M shares at $8. I think this is an exciting clean energy business - not without risk, so please do some DD, but this one has me excited.

[JParm]

@Logo - how about those moves in big tech today?! Only regret is not buying more FB calls when it dipped to the 250 level.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

@Logo - how about those moves in big tech today?! Only regret is not buying more FB calls when it dipped to the 250 level.

i hope this is a sign of things to come, big tech stocks have been pretty flat for a while

[JParm]

Originally Posted by huncho

i hope this is a sign of things to come, big tech stocks have been pretty flat for a while

I welcome the consolidation period over the last 3 months as we roll into earnings, where I expect most tech companies to provide big beats. Long FB, GOOGL, AMZN (and playing FB options) out of FAANG.