Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[Incroyable12]

There's a quarter million dollar vintage Daytona 6262 on Moda now.

[DJ4]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

There's a quarter million dollar vintage Daytona 6262 on Moda now.

yea saw it, sickkk

[DJ4]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

The 15500 was around $19k~ if I remember correctly early upon release.

I was offered a silver dial 15450 last Feb w/ no purchase history. I passed on it because it wore a bit small. I would like a 15500 over the new 15510 because I prefer the logo on the dial.

In my country (not US)
My SA said that I need a 34/37mm first for my wife than it'll be easier to get a 15510/15500 - I'm still waiting for it.

The 34mm ss silver tone came after 2 month or less.

[Incroyable12]

Originally Posted by DJ4

yea saw it, sickkk

Does this mean dealers are starting to sweat?

In the past nobody would sell a watch like that on Facebook.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by DJ4

In my country (not US)
My SA said that I need a 34/37mm first for my wife than it'll be easier to get a 15510/15500 - I'm still waiting for it.

The 34mm ss silver tone came after 2 month or less.

Yes, results can vary depending on the boutique and the manager who runs it. We get on well at mine so my experience can vary from the norm.

Had I known the 15500 would be replaced so quickly, I would’ve just bought that 15450 I was offered. Oh well.

[Vince_76]

Mint 15500 sold for 38.5 or lower. Going to be sub-30 faster than a lot of people think.

[DJ4]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Mint 15500 sold for 38.5 or lower. Going to be sub-30 faster than a lot of people think.

Which color?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by DJ4

Which color?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Silver

[Vince_76]

Minty John Mayer Daytona at 72k - where’s the bottom people were talking about…

[JRedford]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Minty John Mayer Daytona at 72k - where’s the bottom people were talking about…

Starting to fall out, perhaps?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Minty John Mayer Daytona at 72k - where’s the bottom people were talking about…

there is no bottom until the greys are done offloading. logically you would think we end up somewhere around msrp when all is said and done and then creep up slowly if availability is still bad (my guess)

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by JRedford

Starting to fall out, perhaps?

Originally Posted by huncho

there is no bottom until the greys are done offloading. logically you would think we end up somewhere around msrp when all is said and done and then creep up slowly if availability is still bad (my guess)

Agreed - my question was rhetorical. The scary part is that the Fed’s QT is just getting started, and rate hikes aren’t going to taper anytime soon (look at the futures).

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by huncho

there is no bottom until the greys are done offloading. logically you would think we end up somewhere around msrp when all is said and done and then creep up slowly if availability is still bad (my guess)

This.

What you have right now is panic selling by over leveraged dealers (mostly the small time Johnny come lately type)... once that inventory is sold, then you're back to supply = demand and demand is still far greater than supply..

Don't hold your breath for that sport model watch to sit in the display case at the local AD....

What you have now is a rare opportunity to buy at prices that may not return in our lifetimes...

[JRedford]

Originally Posted by HAL330

This.

What you have now is a rare opportunity to buy at prices that may not return in our lifetimes...

IMHO there is know way to actually know this…

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Agreed - my question was rhetorical. The scary part is that the Fed’s QT is just getting started, and rate hikes aren’t going to taper anytime soon (look at the futures).

i think they're in a tough spot now, the jobs market is clearly cooling off with layoffs and hiring freezes. i just don't see how they can continue this course for much longer. probably 50-75 on weds and we have 1 quarter to see how the job market performs before they might be forced to stop hiking again

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by HAL330

This.

What you have right now is panic selling by over leveraged dealers (mostly the small time Johnny come lately type)... once that inventory is sold, then you're back to supply = demand and demand is still far greater than supply..

Don't hold your breath for that sport model watch to sit in the display case at the local AD....

What you have now is a rare opportunity to buy at prices that may not return in our lifetimes...

I disagree. Yes, a significant portion of the unloading has been from smaller players. But I’ve heard from very well established greys that the demand and pricing isn’t there. There’s a reason many won’t buy right now. Just try calling.

Regarding supply and demand - supply is just being shifted, so it won’t have much of an effect on demand, as it isn’t tightening.

It’s also not as simple as supply = demand at stabilization. This whole run up was propped by COVID savings, free money, and hype. Things are regressing to the mean (e.g., 2019 numbers). Daytonas weren’t sitting in the shelves then either.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

I disagree. Yes, a significant portion of the unloading has been from smaller players. But I’ve heard from very well established greys that the demand and pricing isn’t there. There’s a reason many won’t buy right now. Just try calling.

Regarding supply and demand - supply is just being shifted, so it won’t have much of an effect on demand, as it isn’t tightening.

It’s also not as simple as supply = demand at stabilization. This whole run up was propped by COVID savings, free money, and hype. Things are regressing tight the mean (e.g., 2019 numbers). Daytonas weren’t sitting in the shelves then either.

not saying the prices of 6 months ago were the stable norm... far from it.. saying that the prices of maybe 2020 are the norm and that we're correcting towards this now... but don't expect it to get much better.

We forget that demand is indeed down, but when demand is down.. at some point it goes back up.. When the economy turns, the Chinese return to buying, and our 401K's are back in consistent positive territory .. these prices will be a fond memory.

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by HAL330

not saying the prices of 6 months ago were the stable norm... far from it.. saying that the prices of maybe 2020 are the norm and that we're correcting towards this now... but don't expect it to get much better.

We forget that demand is indeed down, but when demand is down.. at some point it goes back up.. When the economy turns, the Chinese return to buying, and our 401K's are back in consistent positive territory .. these prices will be a fond memory.

Weren’t early-mid 2020 prices pretty much the same as those in 2019?

Of course the watch market will stabilize when the greater economy does so. But all the big banks are projecting the highest probability of a recession (if it happens) in 2023. Point being, there is likely many months (maybe closer to a year) of pain before things improve.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Weren’t early-mid 2020 prices pretty much the same as those in 2019?

Of course the watch market will stabilize when the greater economy does so. But all the big banks are projecting the highest probability of a recession (if it happens) in 2023. Point being, there is likely many months (maybe closer to a year) of pain before things improve.

in my humble opinion, we are ALREADY in a recession ... by mid 2023 we'll be coming out of one..

How do I know? I don't... but it's the same exact pattern I saw in 2008, 2001 and 1982

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Weren’t early-mid 2020 prices pretty much the same as those in 2019?

Of course the watch market will stabilize when the greater economy does so. But all the big banks are projecting the highest probability of a recession (if it happens) in 2023. Point being, there is likely many months (maybe closer to a year) of pain before things improve.

prices at the end of 2019/early 2020 were relatively reasonable and they dropped for a brief period of time when covid started. i think crypto made it spiral out of control from then on (went up q4 2020 - q1 2021, dropped in summer, back up in q3). there was a period of time 15202s and 5711s were going up thousands a week. this imo was the bubble, not 2019

[G3Z]

Originally Posted by HAL330

in my humble opinion, we are ALREADY in a recession ... by mid 2023 we'll be coming out of one..

How do I know? I don't... but it's the same exact pattern I saw in 2008, 2001 and 1982

Can you elaborate on this please? Hearing things like this gives reassurance :cheers it feels like a recession to me also. I’m more interested in the pattern you’ve seen.

Thank you.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by G3Z

Can you elaborate on this please? Hearing things like this gives reassurance :cheers it feels like a recession to me also. I’m more interested in the pattern you’ve seen.

Thank you.

well, I don't want to post links to various news outlets but if you watch the financial news (the unbiased news, not the news friendly to the current administration).. you'll see that we've had two consecutive quarters of downward markets already (the definition of a recession)... problem is the the "official" declaration of recession has historically been in the hands of the Business Cycle Dating Committee .. a group of economists who keep track of this data.... and historically, this group has announced the recession 1-2 quarters late..

But based on the same indications, this recession is already underway... but it's tainted with strange employment figures and unusually high inflation (partly related to the lack of labor and raising costs of same)... the end effect is it's not feeling like a recession to many, but in fact it is..

Covid, Russia/Ukraine and Inflation are all unique factors to this recession but in the end, it's all about psychology and whether the average consumer feels the "confidence" to spend money... and right now, that confidence is way down.... but it will return, once those issues are cleared up... and they ALWAYS clear up.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by HAL330

not saying the prices of 6 months ago were the stable norm... far from it.. saying that the prices of maybe 2020 are the norm and that we're correcting towards this now... but don't expect it to get much better.

I'm truly curious why you think anything over the last 2 years was a "norm"? Prices of everything skyrocketed, with lots of abnormal drivers creating unheard of levels of liquidity. Supply for everything was scarce and demand was high.

Crypto, the stock market & real estate aren't likely to recover quickly and that is where the majority of liquidity came from. People spent money like it was free; because it was. The money printer is off. Real demand has dropped, prices are following.

I could be wrong, but I think 2016-2017 is closer to the norm than anything over the last 2 years. Yes, prices should see an increase from those levels due to inflation, but overall, there isn't much scarcity in the watch market production watches. When individual grey dealers are sitting on popular watches in multiples of 10, that isn't a shortage, that is hoarding, creating artificial scarcity.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Andy0331

I'm truly curious why you think anything over the last 2 years was a "norm"? Prices of everything skyrocketed, with lots of abnormal drivers creating unheard of levels of liquidity. Supply for everything was scarce and demand was high.

Crypto, the stock market & real estate aren't likely to recover quickly and that is where the majority of liquidity came from. People spent money like it was free; because it was. The money printer is off. Real demand has dropped, prices are following.

I could be wrong, but I think 2016-2017 is closer to the norm than anything over the last 2 years. Yes, prices should see an increase from those levels due to inflation, but overall, there isn't much scarcity in the watch market production watches. When individual grey dealers are sitting on popular watches in multiples of 10, that isn't a shortage, that is hoarding, creating artificial scarcity.

Normal in that it wasn't speculative... the idea of watches as an investment began around the early time of COVID or beginning of 2020, sure people made money with watches, but that was a side effect to owning it, not the reason to buy it... The price will vary indeed with the perceived wealth of the consumer ... by just before Covid, there was a lot of wealth and the economy was healthy... the Chinese, Arabs and others were buying Rolex at record rates, along with the always high demand in the US, UK, and EU.. so until Covid and the speculative spike... this was a "normal" pricing relative to the market demand... that's what I am saying.

Prices will go up and down based on demand and demand will change based on consumer perceived wealth and desire to spend.

[Incroyable12]

Royal Oak and Nautilus prices already started rising in 2019.

[Incroyable12]

The person who posted the quarter million Daytona is letting go of another rare Daytona.

[eijiboy]

pre owned mint 2019 panda went down to 31700

[mquarter]

It takes time because the inventory will be the last to be liquidated. Dealers will downsize their floor space and lay off staff first.

[DJ4]

2012 AP 15400 blue dial is bidding at 34500 USD on moda

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Incroyable12

Does this mean dealers are starting to sweat?

In the past nobody would sell a watch like that on Facebook.

dealer sweat is what's fueling this price plunge ride... wait until they are out of stuff to dump...