Talking Stocks 2.0

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Good look, Ryan!

Initiated a position in CURI at open as well; they had announced a secondary offering at 13.50 yesterday and it obviously was scooped by in no time.

I've reduced some exposure in AMZN to move into small caps just a tad; AMZN's movement over the last 6 months just isn't very attractive.

Tell me about it.

With all the $ I have tied up in AMZN, wish I put 50% of that amount to GOOG. However, my gut is telling me to keep it & accumulate on dips along with my AAPL & DIS shares. I trust my gut & have paid for it in the past by going against it (by looking at some of my past selling)

I do think if the new CEO, Jassey announces even a 3-1 split, we will see a surge in share price. Also, I wouldn’t mind if it spun off AWS.

[logo]

Originally Posted by pearson1995

Now some of the hype has died down, what do people expect PLTR to look like in the next 10 years? Still undecided on the company, but think I am long.

I don’t expect it to be doing well in 10 years. I’ve made several in depth posts about it here, but in brief I do not believe their approach or product will offer what is required by most businesses in 10 years.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Good look, Ryan!

Initiated a position in CURI at open as well; they had announced a secondary offering at 13.50 yesterday and it obviously was scooped by in no time.

I've reduced some exposure in AMZN to move into small caps just a tad; AMZN's movement over the last 6 months just isn't very attractive.

Yep, that post-earnings sell off didn’t give me much confidence it will move above this sideways range any time soon. I am still long, but it probably won’t be exciting in the short term.


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[scarlet knight]

A spin off of AWS would be very popular.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Tell me about it.

With all the $ I have tied up in AMZN, wish I put 50% of that amount to GOOG. However, my gut is telling me to keep it & accumulate on dips along with my AAPL & DIS shares. I trust my gut & have paid for it in the past by going against it (by looking at some of my past selling)

I do think if the new CEO, Jassey announces even a 3-1 split, we will see a surge in share price. Also, I wouldn’t mind if it spun off AWS.

Now that Jassy is CEO, I don’t see them spinning off AWS. Since that was his area of control and that is the moneymaker, it makes sense for him to be running things now.


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[pearson1995]

Originally Posted by logo

I don’t expect it to be doing well in 10 years. I’ve made several in depth posts about it here, but in brief I do not believe their approach or product will offer what is required by most businesses in 10 years.

Big call!

[Eyenigma]

Feb 05 and Feb 12 50.00 $GME puts printed big this week. Still think we land at $40 or so next week or 19th at the latest. The ride down was even better than the ride up. Sucks for all the bag holders who thought this was "going to the moon" but hopefully they'll learn a hard taught lesson about pump and dump for the future.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Eyenigma

Feb 05 and Feb 12 50.00 $GME puts printed big this week. Still think we land at $40 or so next week or 19th at the latest. The ride down was even better than the ride up. Sucks for all the bag holders who thought this was "going to the moon" but hopefully they'll learn a hard taught lesson about pump and dump for the future.

at the end of the day looks like DFV didn't get to cash out on any part of the run from $60 - $450. he had 13m in cash but that was before the squeeze

[Eyenigma]

Originally Posted by huncho

at the end of the day looks like DFV didn't get to cash out on any part of the run from $60 - $450. he had 13m in cash but that was before the squeeze

I can't say I followed his specifics too closely. I do believe he sold blocks along the way. I did see he posted he was no longer going to be doing daily updates. Which, to me, screamed he was going to be liquidating and didn't want the SEC breathing down his neck for supposedly inciting a sell off or being labeled as some kind of manipulator.

I'll never understand how he managed this entire trade. I can only hope he was legally barred / advised from selling (for the above reasons) otherwise, my personal respect for his trading goes to nil. Why he wouldn't swap common for options is beyond me. He puked up $20M in profits. Which, I get, it's all fun and games. And apes on Reddit will give you "gold" and so forth. But I have to imagine there will be a time when DFV looks at (what COULD have been) life changing money for multiple generations, and wish he'd done it different. I'm sure he's still sitting pretty with 7 figures to the good. So fair play to him on a 50K investment.

Assuming he was barred from selling though, you could almost argue the very catalyst that made him wealthy also prevented him from realizing said gains. His eagerness to share his position sparked the squeeze. But also pegged him as the culprit to the SEC.

Oh well. No complaints here. I made my money last week on the rise. Made it this week on the fall. Just so bizarre seeing these kids who are bag holding at 200 and 150 still buying into the idea this will once again squeeze. Once they completely capitulate, this name will be sub $40 which is probably fair market value for the restructured org and current balance sheet.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Eyenigma

I can't say I followed his specifics too closely. I do believe he sold blocks along the way. I did see he posted he was no longer going to be doing daily updates. Which, to me, screamed he was going to be liquidating and didn't want the SEC breathing down his neck for supposedly inciting a sell off or being labeled as some kind of manipulator.

I'll never understand how he managed this entire trade. I can only hope he was legally barred / advised from selling (for the above reasons) otherwise, my personal respect for his trading goes to nil. Why he wouldn't swap common for options is beyond me. He puked up $20M in profits. Which, I get, it's all fun and games. And apes on Reddit will give you "gold" and so forth. But I have to imagine there will be a time when DFV looks at (what COULD have been) life changing money for multiple generations, and wish he'd done it different. I'm sure he's still sitting pretty with 7 figures to the good. So fair play to him on a 50K investment.

Assuming he was barred from selling though, you could almost argue the very catalyst that made him wealthy also prevented him from realizing said gains. His eagerness to share his position sparked the squeeze. But also pegged him as the culprit to the SEC.

Oh well. No complaints here. I made my money last week on the rise. Made it this week on the fall. Just so bizarre seeing these kids who are bag holding at 200 and 150 still buying into the idea this will once again squeeze. Once they completely capitulate, this name will be sub $40 which is probably fair market value for the restructured org and current balance sheet.

yeah i believe the 13m he cashed out were cashed out in chunks throughout the past few months from his january calls, but i believe he didn't sell anything during the last week unfortunately. i don't think he had an exit strategy or at least i have no idea what his plans were. maybe he thought it was gonna go to 1000 but when you have 50m why not sell some off, especially when it goes from 40 to 450 lol

obviously he still did good but im guessing he was specifically holding for a squeeze and ended up not getting anything out of it

[gabrielnovar]

bought some GME as a spec. From my experience when something looks like its dead.. It probably has one last move to shock the world.

I saw that in bitcoin 2017. if GME wants to make history has to break 1k lol

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by Eyenigma

Feb 05 and Feb 12 50.00 $GME puts printed big this week. Still think we land at $40 or so next week or 19th at the latest. The ride down was even better than the ride up. Sucks for all the bag holders who thought this was "going to the moon" but hopefully they'll learn a hard taught lesson about pump and dump for the future.

Congrats. I went with GME July 16 $23 puts. Paid $6 per contract. I’m hoping for the same result. I also think it’s terrible that many newer retail investors will be writing off the $3k max loss for many years. Tough lesson to learn.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by JWD531

Now that Jassy is CEO, I don’t see them spinning off AWS. Since that was his area of control and that is the moneymaker, it makes sense for him to be running things now.


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I also not see Amazon spinning off AWS unless they are forced to along. I have faith in Jassey & assume he has direct reports who won’t let the consumer side suffer.

My company lost our CEO this week. Not sure about the replacement yet but we’ll see.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Personally it sounds like you have zero concept of what intrinsic value of an asset is. This is not the "growth" vs. "value" nomenclature issue that mainstream "investors" run into all the time. It's the concept that any asset's inherent worth is the present value of future profits of the firm, discounted against the desired return based on the class and perceived "riskiness" of that asset. It's the backbone and guiding principle that the vast majority of the greatest investors- Graham, Buffett, Munger, Lynch, Marks, etc. of the past century have used to determine whether or not a particular asset is trading at a discount relative to its fair value given a set of forecasted assumptions about the firm.

This can be applied to any asset- it can be a "growth stock" trading at a higher or even negative profit multiples, it can be a "value stock"- usually a slow company trading at a lower P/E, P/S, or P/FCF ratio. This kind of analysis actually led me to conclude that etsy, trading at a massive 111 P/E ratio and had a massive run recently, is actually a somewhat reasonable buy at the moment if you conservatively project their cash flows into the future. It led me to sell costco, as my projected return dropped to 5% for the next 10 years (after the recent run up) even when making liberal assumptions about how much more they could grow. If any asset's future returns drop you a tier on the capital markets curve, then why would I hold onto a high quality equity when I could buy high grade corporate bonds and achieve the same rate of return instead with close to no risk of principal not being paid back?

The issue with the two companies you've talked about is that there's a complete disconnect between the price and the underlying aspects of the business and what's actually taking place. PINS has had to spend more money to actually achieve revenue growth. Despite massive growth of revenues- they are still burning cash:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...erest/pe-ratio

Their gross margins would suggest they should be fine- almost 70%, but they have a dismal -30% operating margin. They haven't been able to turn the corner yet. How much gross margin do they need to achieve to get to a point where they have a positive operating margin and are cash flowing? 70 is already enormous. Why has the stock price of pins flourished almost 300% in the past year even with all of this information readily available to the public via 10ks, 10qs, and other financial reporting? I think that's a great question and can likely be attributed to the general euphoria we are seeing in multiple places at the moment.

Many stocks these days, including pinterest, remind me of groupon- once a hot tech darling in the early 2010s, groupon was growing revenues by a whopping 200% quarter over quarter at one point back in the earlier part of the decade. The stock price was on fire after the IPO.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...roupon/revenue

But guess what happened? Groupon was bringing in billions, and was never able to turn the corner in terms of profitability- even now, the firm is still lighting money on fire every quarter, with negative earnings and near negative cash flows.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/c...oupon/pe-ratio

Guess what investors decided after groupon never actually got to where they needed to be? Well just look at the stock price today. People who invested at that euphoric top back in 2013 have lost over 90% of that value today. That famous Buffett quote "price is what you pay, [intrinsic] value is what you get" never rang so true than in this short case study.

And as Ben Graham once said: "In the short term the stock market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine."
Time is the greatest de-risking instrument in the world of investing and that will always be the case.

How anyone conducts their "investing" is up to them- you can choose to be a cheerleader for the price of a stock, and say things like "I think it's really cheap right now" relative to what the price has been the past week, the past month, the past year or 10 years, and wishfully hope that it will continue to go up, but there's really no value in those types of statements- it doesn't actually provide a clear picture of what's going on, if anything it actually misleads others into making bad and misinformed decisions. This herd mentality is extremely pervasive in social media today- and it is dangerous.

And no I'm not asking for anyone to do my homework for me. I have a process and system that works for me that I'm happy with. I will always employ that process prior to making any decisions. But statements like "I bought these calls because reddit said it would go up," or "I bought this because I think it's a great company" literally contributes no substance to this thread. If someone makes money with this approach- that's awesome! Take the profit and run- or buy something awesome (like a speedmaster)with it. But at its core that isn't investing. This thread has been great in the past- I've seen a lot of thoughtful content posted here. I appreciate a lot of the stuff that 7sins does especially, I don't do options trading but reading about it is fascinating.

PINS big beat across the board...been pounding the table on this since it was in the $20s last year. Plenty of runway left, as they have guided 70%+ growth in revenue next quarter as well. Staying here for the long haul and have calls as well.

But I guess I don't know how to invest.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

PINS big beat across the board...been pounding the table on this since it was in the $20s last year. Plenty of runway left, as they have guided 70%+ growth in revenue next quarter as well. Staying here for the long haul and have calls as well.

But I guess I don't know how to invest.

You’re input has helped me a lot this year. I appreciate mentioning PINS as I am also holding some calls and equity and it’s been very good for me as well. I also bought MGNI. I’m only 25 and trying to retire by 30 so guess we will see how that goes


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[hkuo]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

You’re input has helped me a lot this year. I appreciate mentioning PINS as I am also holding some calls and equity and it’s been very good for me as well. I also bought MGNI. I’m only 25 and trying to retire by 30 so guess we will see how that goes


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I second this. Your input has really helped me as well. I’m planning on getting back into MGNI. I’m just making a small pit stop on CRSR to try and play the earnings report game on them. I got into FSLY because of jpeezy so I rode it from $35 all the way up near the top. And whoever mentioned APPS the first time around was spot on. I doubled my investment on them. I’ll always thank you guys for your input and contributions since it helps me get out of the FAANG stocks and diversify my portfolio.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

You’re input has helped me a lot this year. I appreciate mentioning PINS as I am also holding some calls and equity and it’s been very good for me as well. I also bought MGNI. I’m only 25 and trying to retire by 30 so guess we will see how that goes


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Originally Posted by hkuo

I second this. Your input has really helped me as well. I’m planning on getting back into MGNI. I’m just making a small pit stop on CRSR to try and play the earnings report game on them. I got into FSLY because of jpeezy so I rode it from $35 all the way up near the top. And whoever mentioned APPS the first time around was spot on. I doubled my investment on them. I’ll always thank you guys for your input and contributions since it helps me get out of the FAANG stocks and diversify my portfolio.

Appreciate it gents.

I mentioned APPS here when when it was in the 20s as well...except this one I did not hold onto. Can't win them all, but I hope to jump back in once I see a pullback! Their growth story is off the charts.

[logo]

Originally Posted by hkuo

I second this. Your input has really helped me as well. I’m planning on getting back into MGNI. I’m just making a small pit stop on CRSR to try and play the earnings report game on them. I got into FSLY because of jpeezy so I rode it from $35 all the way up near the top. And whoever mentioned APPS the first time around was spot on. I doubled my investment on them. I’ll always thank you guys for your input and contributions since it helps me get out of the FAANG stocks and diversify my portfolio.

I sold CRSR today. It has tried to break 46 several times and it always has faded back down, so I locked in the gains today given we’ve gained 22% in 3 days. One thing to be aware of is that literally EVERYONE expects them to beat earnings, and have expected that for months. If that’s the case, why hasn’t it gone past 46 and held yet? When everyone is bullish, time to ask questions and raise some cash IMO.

They have a lockup expiry Feb 19 where I believe their float will increase by 3x, and 80% of the institutional ownership is under one firm. My concern is that share price has been restrained a bit in anticipation of that institution unloading a bit after the lockup which would curtail any major share price gain from earnings. In fact it could even sell off from earnings. So I’m looking to get back in after earnings.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

I sold CRSR today. It has tried to break 46 several times and it always has faded back down, so I locked in the gains today given we’ve gained 22% in 3 days. One thing to be aware of is that literally EVERYONE expects them to beat earnings, and have expected that for months. If that’s the case, why hasn’t it gone past 46 and held yet? When everyone is bullish, time to ask questions and raise some cash IMO.

They have a lockup expiry Feb 19 where I believe their float will increase by 3x, and 80% of the institutional ownership is under one firm. My concern is that share price has been restrained a bit in anticipation of that institution unloading a bit after the lockup which would curtail any major share price gain from earnings. In fact it could even sell off from earnings. So I’m looking to get back in after earnings.

it seems like there's just no reason to hold anything through earnings anymore also. nothing is good enough anymore

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by logo

I sold CRSR today. It has tried to break 46 several times and it always has faded back down, so I locked in the gains today given we’ve gained 22% in 3 days. One thing to be aware of is that literally EVERYONE expects them to beat earnings, and have expected that for months. If that’s the case, why hasn’t it gone past 46 and held yet? When everyone is bullish, time to ask questions and raise some cash IMO.

They have a lockup expiry Feb 19 where I believe their float will increase by 3x, and 80% of the institutional ownership is under one firm. My concern is that share price has been restrained a bit in anticipation of that institution unloading a bit after the lockup which would curtail any major share price gain from earnings. In fact it could even sell off from earnings. So I’m looking to get back in after earnings.

Thanks for the tip! I saw that they went up on Wednesday because of the patent lawsuit win so I was a little relieved it wasn’t in anticipation for the earnings report. I’ll wait to see what happens after their lock up.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Appreciate it gents.

I mentioned APPS here when when it was in the 20s as well...except this one I did not hold onto. Can't win them all, but I hope to jump back in once I see a pullback! Their growth story is off the charts.

I tend to cause a dip in the stock I buy so once you see APPS dip, just know I took one for the team lol. My dad always buys the same stock a day or few days after me and he gets a better price hahaha

[Etschell]

bought ford, wfc and cciv 3 days ago. also the ark funds and mara.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

it seems like there's just no reason to hold anything through earnings anymore also. nothing is good enough anymore

Wouldn't say that is always true, look at PYPL today but for the most part, stocks are priced for ER perfection.

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by huncho

at the end of the day looks like DFV didn't get to cash out on any part of the run from $60 - $450. he had 13m in cash but that was before the squeeze

2.6mm to 13.8mm cashed out from 1/22 to 1/27. He cashed out while other people are screaming about their diamond hands.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

2.6mm to 13.8mm cashed out from 1/22 to 1/27. He cashed out while other people are screaming about their diamond hands.

He definitely could of cashed out more but good for him that he made some serious money.


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[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Appreciate it gents.

I mentioned APPS here when when it was in the 20s as well...except this one I did not hold onto. Can't win them all, but I hope to jump back in once I see a pullback! Their growth story is off the charts.

I have some APPS $60 calls from about a month ago and am extremely satisfied.

[Etschell]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

2.6mm to 13.8mm cashed out from 1/22 to 1/27. He cashed out while other people are screaming about their diamond hands.

He is being summoned to Washington for the grill fest. They will probably try to take all his money.

Saddest part is he will be blamed for something that he prob didnt even cause. It was not just reddit users who profited or caused the squeeze.

Now without a job and potentially facing a lawsuit.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

2.6mm to 13.8mm cashed out from 1/22 to 1/27. He cashed out while other people are screaming about their diamond hands.

you're right, he cashed out 9m on jan 27 (days gain of 20m that day) and a few mil days before that, then lost 15m the next day and regained 13m back the day after. i actually thought it was worse so he cashed out more than i thought during the huge run, but yeah it's hilarious how people were obsessing with diamond hands while he was cashing out a bit. people with 1-2m in gains (their whole portfolio) weren't selling anything while he was getting his bag. i still feel like he diamond handed too much though, basically had this play all thought out but only cashed out on 20% of it but again hindsight is 20/20 lol

[Spartacus]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

PINS big beat across the board...been pounding the table on this since it was in the $20s last year. Plenty of runway left, as they have guided 70%+ growth in revenue next quarter as well. Staying here for the long haul and have calls as well.

But I guess I don't know how to invest.

I dipped my toe in the PINS water based on your posts! You have been saying it for a while now

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by CamSLC

I have some APPS $60 calls from about a month ago and am extremely satisfied.

Dam ur in heaven! Time for a vacation haha


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