Talking Stocks 2.0

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Wouldn't say that is always true, look at PYPL today but for the most part, stocks are priced for ER perfection.

Hey I remember you mentioning DASH and SNOW lockup expirations coming. Is it still too soon to purchase puts for these two ?


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[chadwick4eva]

Amazing research done by Hindenburg on clover today- one of Chamath's SPACs. Turns out that Clover makes most of its money by taking advantage of elderly people and defrauding the healthcare system via upcoding in diagnostic protocols.

I'm not surprised- I've seen a ton of Chamath all over the place recently in media and social media, and while he is quite well spoken, there is an overconfidence and lack of humility/empathy to him that makes me question his character. Stay away from any SPACs that this guy is associated with- there are many aspects to this report- from the business practices to the people involved and who he associates with, that would compel me to not touch any of this stuff with a ten foot pole.

The timing of this article couldn't come at a more important time and highlights how short selling is a critical function to maintaining some semblance of an "efficient market" on wall street and can be a force for good that roots out corruption and bad business practice.

https://hindenburgresearch.com/clover/

https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...h-Palihapitiya

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Hey I remember you mentioning DASH and SNOW lockup expirations coming. Is it still too soon to purchase puts for these two ?


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Closed my position on $snow in the 280s, their earnings is March 3rd and staying away until ER. They badly missed ER last quarter and the stock went from $250 to $400, so my hope is we see something similar and I can buy puts with a higher stock price. Same goes for DASH, need to wait a bit longer to the unlock, would love to get in above $200sp but IV is still very high.

HUGE opportunity today in QCOM, complete over-reaction for the stock to be down 8%. I loaded into QCOM Jan 2022 $160C this morning, they were down 30%. 5G isn't going anywhere and QCOM will grind back to $180 over the next few months. Easy play here for a good core holding. Also looks like a hedge fund loading in at market close with a 875,000 share market order, plenty of resistance at $145.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Amazing research done by Hindenburg on clover today- one of Chamath's SPACs. Turns out that Clover makes most of its money by taking advantage of elderly people and defrauding the healthcare system via upcoding in diagnostic protocols.

I'm not surprised- I've seen a ton of Chamath all over the place recently in media and social media, and while he is quite well spoken, there is an overconfidence and lack of humility/empathy to him that makes me question his character. Stay away from any SPACs that this guy is associated with- there are many aspects to this report- from the business practices to the people involved and who he associates with, that would compel me to not touch any of this stuff with a ten foot pole.

The timing of this article couldn't come at a more important time and highlights how short selling is a critical function to maintaining some semblance of an "efficient market" on wall street and can be a force for good that roots out corruption and bad business practice.

https://hindenburgresearch.com/clover/

https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...h-Palihapitiya

Guess there go his chances of running for CA governor haha.

[Kliminator]

Originally Posted by huncho

you're right, he cashed out 9m on jan 27 (days gain of 20m that day) and a few mil days before that, then lost 15m the next day and regained 13m back the day after. i actually thought it was worse so he cashed out more than i thought during the huge run, but yeah it's hilarious how people were obsessing with diamond hands while he was cashing out a bit. people with 1-2m in gains (their whole portfolio) weren't selling anything while he was getting his bag. i still feel like he diamond handed too much though, basically had this play all thought out but only cashed out on 20% of it but again hindsight is 20/20 lol

I've seen some speculation that he cashed out more and some of his updates were doctored / fake. Who knows!

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by hkuo

I tend to cause a dip in the stock I buy so once you see APPS dip, just know I took one for the team lol. My dad always buys the same stock a day or few days after me and he gets a better price hahaha

At least you can't be accused of hubris.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by chadwick4eva

Amazing research done by Hindenburg on clover today- one of Chamath's SPACs. Turns out that Clover makes most of its money by taking advantage of elderly people and defrauding the healthcare system via upcoding in diagnostic protocols.

I'm not surprised- I've seen a ton of Chamath all over the place recently in media and social media, and while he is quite well spoken, there is an overconfidence and lack of humility/empathy to him that makes me question his character. Stay away from any SPACs that this guy is associated with- there are many aspects to this report- from the business practices to the people involved and who he associates with, that would compel me to not touch any of this stuff with a ten foot pole.

The timing of this article couldn't come at a more important time and highlights how short selling is a critical function to maintaining some semblance of an "efficient market" on wall street and can be a force for good that roots out corruption and bad business practice.

https://hindenburgresearch.com/clover/

https://www.institutionalinvestor.co...h-Palihapitiya

I know nothing about Chamath, but saw him on CNBC recently, where he was discussing having sold some of his SPCE, right before it doubled in price, another "victim" of the short squeeze.

[JParm]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/magni...071000535.html

MGNI booming (+25%) pre-market on news it's acquiring SpotX. They also guided above consensus revenue for Q4.

I've said it before, but hope you held through the "fraud" allegations a couple weeks back! Sometimes you have to drown out the short-term noise from noted short-sellers and believe in your own DD.

And if you're concerned about how expensive the market is, have a read here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/05/powe...-cheering.html

Remaining bullish while staying vigilant!

[gabrielnovar]

well that GME call worked out. Honestly its the most fun ive had in 20 years in the market.

[JParm]

SKLZ still on fire from the NFL announcement yesterday.

Sure, might be hype - but there's money to be made in this market. Caught about 2/3 of the way up yesterday, and fully in this one.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/magni...071000535.html

MGNI booming (+25%) pre-market on news it's acquiring SpotX. They also guided above consensus revenue for Q4.

I've said it before, but hope you held through the "fraud" allegations a couple weeks back! Sometimes you have to drown out the short-term noise from noted short-sellers and believe in your own DD.

And if you're concerned about how expensive the market is, have a read here:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/05/powe...-cheering.html

Remaining bullish while staying vigilant!

Congrats on the nice trade!!

Originally Posted by 7sins

For all of us in FDX, UPS reports before the bell tomorrow. I don't know UPS as well as FDX but if they report a good ER, that should bode well for FDX. Purchased more April $270C today.

For all of us in FDX, hope you guys added to these April 270c I mentioned on Tuesday, they are up over 60% since then. Making up for some of those losses from the last month, patience paid off here and DCAing the way down. Looks like we finally found a base in FDX and finally two back to back days of 2%+ and IV is on the way up. Look at L2 data, looks like resistance at 256/257 then should gap up from there. I suspect we continue to march back to $300 before next ER. Good PR from Barron's today noting FDX as a top 5 stock for an industrial recovery https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7209f36f...stocks-to.html. My only concern is volume continues to be light, if this can pick up momentum and volume, we will be back at $300 in no time.

Also adding to my Macy's puts today and earlier this week. Completely overbought at $15, saw it run up due to short exposure but fundamentally this company should not trade above $12 where it was last week. Puts are cheap and I suspect this goes back to $12. Would be weary of possible run up into ER though.

Also anyone in my Coty and GILD trades should be up 20% plus today. Coty reports next week.

[bobscofan]

7sins and xelorpepsi,

Thanks for the back and forth a month or so ago. I work with a lot brands in the retail space and did a little research on Coty too based on reading your posts. New leadership remains a powerful catalyst in this market especially when coupled with good news. Thank you both for your insights. I would not have found the stock without your posts.

[Magnum75]

Originally Posted by 7sins

For all of us in FDX, hope you guys added to these April 270c I mentioned on Tuesday, they are up over 60% since then. Making up for some of those losses from the last month, patience paid off here and DCAing the way down. Looks like we finally found a base in FDX and finally two back to back days of 2%+ and IV is on the way up. Look at L2 data, looks like resistance at 256/257 then should gap up from there. I suspect we continue to march back to $300 before next ER. Good PR from Barron's today noting FDX as a top 5 stock for an industrial recovery https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7209f36f...stocks-to.html. My only concern is volume continues to be light, if this can pick up momentum and volume, we will be back at $300 in no time.

Yes, added those FDX calls the other day. (I also purchased shares last year) Thanks for all of the info and commentary you provide!

[7sins]

Originally Posted by bobscofan

7sins and xelorpepsi,

Thanks for the back and forth a month or so ago. I work with a lot brands in the retail space and did a little research on Coty too based on reading your posts. New leadership remains a powerful catalyst in this market especially when coupled with good news. Thank you both for your insights. I would not have found the stock without your posts.

You are very welcome and Xelorpepsi points were spot on, management needed to do A LOT to turn this company around. Which is why I stressed the importance of their global expansion, especially in Asia where luxury brands are substantially growing. Two significant comments Sue Nabi, the CEO, made that I think will bode well for COTY's expansion in 2021:

Sue letting the cat out of the bag recently: "Coty’s prestige cosmetics and skincare retail sales in China grew by over 40% last quarter, with Gucci Beauty delivering double digit sell-out growth there last year. Tmall Luxury Pavilion is an outstanding platform to build on this excellent recent performance. In our flagship store, we look forward to further engaging our Chinese consumers, who are so passionate about beauty and iconic brands like Gucci."

"The digital store connects Gucci Beauty products with more than 770 million Chinese consumers on the Tmall platform, who will now have the opportunity to experience and purchase items from Gucci Beauty’s full range of make-up and fragrances, including favorites Rouge à Lèvres Mat lipstick and Poudre De Beauté Mat Naturel face powder."

While not a direct overlap but great earnings from ELF and EL lately I think are a positive sign for COTY's ER on Tuesday. There has also been significant insider buying over the last few months. Price is still severely undervalued compared to its peers and certainly precovid SP, where IMO, the brand did not have new management's perspective where we are now.

It always makes me nervous when the price runs up dramatically this much before ER, but there is NO reason this shouldn't be $10 before Summer as the economy reopens. IV dramatically expanded today pushes options up 40% but this will be a winner this year.

Originally Posted by Magnum75

Yes, added those FDX calls the other day. (I also purchased shares last year) Thanks for all of the info and commentary you provide!

Nice!! I see the options closed around $11, you should have gotten in around $6, so that is 80% return in a few days. Not too bad, should cover the losses in the shares!

[JParm]

Great close to a great week, gents. Bulls have taken it back from the WSB story, and hopefully that is officially dead at this point.

Onward to next week and more earnings!

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Congrats on the nice trade!!



For all of us in FDX, hope you guys added to these April 270c I mentioned on Tuesday, they are up over 60% since then. Making up for some of those losses from the last month, patience paid off here and DCAing the way down. Looks like we finally found a base in FDX and finally two back to back days of 2%+ and IV is on the way up. Look at L2 data, looks like resistance at 256/257 then should gap up from there. I suspect we continue to march back to $300 before next ER. Good PR from Barron's today noting FDX as a top 5 stock for an industrial recovery https://finance.yahoo.com/m/7209f36f...stocks-to.html. My only concern is volume continues to be light, if this can pick up momentum and volume, we will be back at $300 in no time.

Also adding to my Macy's puts today and earlier this week. Completely overbought at $15, saw it run up due to short exposure but fundamentally this company should not trade above $12 where it was last week. Puts are cheap and I suspect this goes back to $12. Would be weary of possible run up into ER though.

Also anyone in my Coty and GILD trades should be up 20% plus today. Coty reports next week.

Pleased to see FDX today. I’m still in the red a bit, but did reduce my original cost basis by a little over 50% so far so should be nicely green in a few months (I have June 320 calls). I was thinking the same about 255 resistance - if we can break there I’ll probably add to my calls to bring the average down slightly more.


I’m also in COTY. I’m ready for this to launch to $10/share next week

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You are very welcome and Xelorpepsi points were spot on, management needed to do A LOT to turn this company around. Which is why I stressed the importance of their global expansion, especially in Asia where luxury brands are substantially growing. Two significant comments Sue Nabi, the CEO, made that I think will bode well for COTY's expansion in 2021:

Sue letting the cat out of the bag recently: "Coty’s prestige cosmetics and skincare retail sales in China grew by over 40% last quarter, with Gucci Beauty delivering double digit sell-out growth there last year. Tmall Luxury Pavilion is an outstanding platform to build on this excellent recent performance. In our flagship store, we look forward to further engaging our Chinese consumers, who are so passionate about beauty and iconic brands like Gucci."

"The digital store connects Gucci Beauty products with more than 770 million Chinese consumers on the Tmall platform, who will now have the opportunity to experience and purchase items from Gucci Beauty’s full range of make-up and fragrances, including favorites Rouge à Lèvres Mat lipstick and Poudre De Beauté Mat Naturel face powder."

While not a direct overlap but great earnings from ELF and EL lately I think are a positive sign for COTY's ER on Tuesday. There has also been significant insider buying over the last few months. Price is still severely undervalued compared to its peers and certainly precovid SP, where IMO, the brand did not have new management's perspective where we are now.

It always makes me nervous when the price runs up dramatically this much before ER, but there is NO reason this shouldn't be $10 before Summer as the economy reopens. IV dramatically expanded today pushes options up 40% but this will be a winner this year.




Nice!! I see the options closed around $11, you should have gotten in around $6, so that is 80% return in a few days. Not too bad, should cover the losses in the shares!

coty looks promising and especially once things start opening back up and people start going out. i'm interested to get in but i think i'll wait til after earnings. i got burned by iv crush from earnings/earnings run ups a lot of times by now lol. thanks for all the info as always

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

coty looks promising and especially once things start opening back up and people start going out. i'm interested to get in but i think i'll wait til after earnings. i got burned by iv crush from earnings/earnings run ups a lot of times by now lol. thanks for all the info as always

Haha, ER can always be a bit tricky, that is why I try to buy longer dated options if I can for recovery. Lets see how Coty does Monday, I might take gains and move them into CRSR as they report Tuesday as well. They have a VERY small 26m share float which 91% is held by institutions, so if they blowout ER I would expect this to move at minimum 15% if not more given how very little shares are available. Given how well Logitech did on their last ER, I am sure CRSR will follow.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Haha, ER can always be a bit tricky, that is why I try to buy longer dated options if I can for recovery. Lets see how Coty does Monday, I might take gains and move them into CRSR as they report Tuesday as well. They have a VERY small 26m share float which 91% is held by institutions, so if they blowout ER I would expect this to move at minimum 15% if not more given how very little shares are available. Given how well Logitech did on their last ER, I am sure CRSR will follow.

My understanding for CRSR was that 80% of their institutional ownership is from one smaller VC fund (Eagle Tree, bought for only 500M in 2017) - lockup expiry Feb 19 where I have seen reports of the float tripling to 75M (I tried getting the S1, but the share numbers seem blanked out?). I have no doubt they will blow out ER, but I think so does everyone and still the stock hasn’t been able to break 45 for the past few months. My worry is that the impending lockup expiry is a great excuse for a 70% owner who has increased their position from 500M to 3B to dispose of shares and tank the share price. And I wonder if this is why the stock has been held back a bit, and by the same token maybe this may restrain the stock from flying even with the blowout ER we know they will have. What are your thoughts?

[pavinc]

Hi all, I'm a novice investor who's been learning and enjoying the inputs from seasoned investors in this thread. I have a quick newbie question for you guys. Can number of shares available to borrow, and borrowing rate fees be indicative of how a stock is trending?
About 8 months ago I invested in a small biotech company INO, believining in their technology and product pipeline. However the stock has been consistantly shorted and I'm left holding bag. I bought in at 10 and it went up to 30 at its highest but I didn't sell. It dropped to as low as 8 but is now gaing traction again with an anticipation of a FDA phase 3 lift for its INO4800 Covid vaccine testing. . But even with a target price recently raised by a highly ranked analyst (at oppenhiemer), it's continued to be shorted.

[jaisonline]

Quite a few posts didn’t make the backup. As Steve mentioned, 6 days were lost.

Was fun to be in the Thurs & Friday CCIV runs after watching my friends make money on the pot stocks. I didn’t partake (no pun) unfortunately for quick buck.

One company that I started researching is TheScore Media from Canada. I had no idea they were also in the sports betting business. For the past 6 years, I used their regular app a lot before COVID for fantasy football articles & following my local teams. They actually have a nice US following. Also read that Penn Gaming bought a recent stake & Portnoy talked them up.

TICKER = TSX: SCR and pink sheet / OTC TSCRF. I did start a small possession.

Currently, betting only in 3 states (Colorado, NJ, & Indiana). I think Iowa is next.

Just wish the online gaming space wasn’t do crowed. I like FanDuel & DKNG the best because they also offer “daily fantasy sports” which is a huge source of consistent revenue. Penn is good but I totally missed on the stock probably. Maybe because I’m not a barstool reader but Portnoy’s tweets can be entertaining when he’s not manipulating stocks (SNDL last Thursday afternoon).

[EatMcdonalds]

Originally Posted by pavinc

Hi all, I'm a novice investor who's been learning and enjoying the inputs from seasoned investors in this thread. I have a quick newbie question for you guys. Can number of shares available to borrow, and borrowing rate fees be indicative of how a stock is trending?
About 8 months ago I invested in a small biotech company INO, believining in their technology and product pipeline. However the stock has been consistantly shorted and I'm left holding bag. I bought in at 10 and it went up to 30 at its highest but I didn't sell. It dropped to as low as 8 but is now gaing traction again with an anticipation of a FDA phase 3 lift for its INO4800 Covid vaccine testing. . But even with a target price recently raised by a highly ranked analyst (at oppenhiemer), it's continued to be shorted.

Yes. Higher short interest will increase cost to borrow.

Highly shorted names (i’d say 10%+ of float, assuming the company doesn’t have convertible debt) are indicative of smart money coming in to the stock. It sounds like there are hedge funds betting against the data.

That being said, it’s a more fundamental call on the data. There are probably smart folks on the side of positive data as well so hard to make any conclusion based on this data point.

[gabrielnovar]

going to start to load the cheap deep value healthcare stocks like BMY/GILD etc. using profits from these hi flying growth stocks. Even my parents who are 60+ are buying growth stocks vs value. that's a red flag lol

Will keep bitcoin position 100% as that is about to blast to mars.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

going to start to load the cheap deep value healthcare stocks like BMY/GILD etc. using profits from these hi flying growth stocks. Even my parents who are 60+ are buying growth stocks vs value. that's a red flag lol

Will keep bitcoin position 100% as that is about to blast to mars.

BMY and MRK both at good levels to add here.


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[logo]

Originally Posted by JWD531

BMY and MRK both at good levels to add here.


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I agree they are at good levels, but I’ve been putting off adding pharma as these all seem to be fairly sluggish lately. Any catalysts coming up that will help these companies break free from their current tight ranges?

[pavinc]

Originally Posted by EatMcdonalds

Yes. Higher short interest will increase cost to borrow.

Highly shorted names (i’d say 10%+ of float, assuming the company doesn’t have convertible debt) are indicative of smart money coming in to the stock. It sounds like there are hedge funds betting against the data.

That being said, it’s a more fundamental call on the data. There are probably smart folks on the side of positive data as well so hard to make any conclusion based on this data point.

Thank you for clarifiying. So I understanding it correctly.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by logo

I agree they are at good levels, but I’ve been putting off adding pharma as these all seem to be fairly sluggish lately. Any catalysts coming up that will help these companies break free from their current tight ranges?

Not that I know of now that their earnings dates have passed. There’s also no guarantee they bounce here. I just like them at his price.


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[jaisonline]

BMY has a NASH drug, Pegbelfermin , in the pipeline (phase 2b results pending. FDA has been hard on them) . Big pharma type gain if drug is a winner. Not sure how much it will influence the stock.

89bio (ETNB) also has one. Bio89-100 for NASH. Phase 2b starts 1H-2021. Looks promising. High risk / high reward.

[7sins]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cot...uy-51613181354

For those of you who got into COTY, the aforementioned link was a great article in Barron’s over the weekend suggesting the opportunity to buy. Good press should bode well for the stock this week, as I stated last week before this article, the stock was oversold after ER and our long calls should do extremely well.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by JWD531

BMY and MRK both at good levels to add here.


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I own LLY and ABBV. Have had more success in medical equipment like TMO, Intuitive Surgical.