Talking Stocks 2.0

[JParm]

I don't own it, but OTRK is getting absolutely crushed after guiding down; the stock is down 47%.

This was a stock darling that I had thought about entering but could never justify it. Terrible for current shareholders.

[jaisonline]

Apple: All apple u.s. Stores are open as of today for the first time since march 2020

[logo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I don't own it, but OTRK is getting absolutely crushed after guiding down; the stock is down 47%.

This was a stock darling that I had thought about entering but could never justify it. Terrible for current shareholders.

I had high hopes for it a few months ago - EBITDA positive, 180% YoY revenue growth. However, the stock is heavily shorted and there was a stretch in November/December where all the telehealth stocks were getting knocked around from the covid vaccine news, then Amazon entering the telehealth space etc. I reluctantly walked away at that point thinking it might take a while to recover, only to see it hit 100 a few weeks later in January. Glad I got out now in hindsight.

I believe they lost one of their largest customers in a pre-earnings PR. I don't know the details, but for a small company trying to grow that is huge news.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by m j b

As usual, I got it backwards again.

Hey, want a $1M portfolio? Start with $2M and do what I do.

I cut my losses early.

[beshannon]

Markets rolling over, need to watch the 2:00 print

Traders were expecting a gap up with a down move and got caught. This needs to hold into the close or we could be headed lower

[7sins]

Huncho where you at on our RKT trade? Special dividend!! You planning to unload after it goes ex-div?

[7sins]

More great news for FDX as we continue that march back to $300 for those on that train with me, up $10 today hitting a wall at $265 and our April calls should be up close to 100%. Making up ground on our May 300C. Fantastic news for future revenue streams as they take majority market share of vaccine shipping. Note the article also references the millions of doses they already have shipped for Q4.

FedEx Prepares For COVID-19 Vaccine Volume Growth, Begins Shipping Newly Approved Vaccine

FedEx Express, a subsidiary of FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) and the world’s largest express transportation company, announced today that it has begun shipping the newly approved COVID-19 vaccine on behalf of McKesson Corp. to dosing centers throughout the United States.

The company has shipped millions of COVID-19 vaccines since U.S. distribution began in mid-December 2020 and is prepared to scale up to accommodate anticipated growth in vaccine volume throughout the spring and summer. Nearly three months after COVID-19 vaccine distribution began, FedEx has shipped COVID-19 vaccines and supply kits to administration sites across all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Washington, D.C. COVID-19 vaccine volume is split evenly with FedEx moving approximately half the doses allocated by the federal government.

"As vaccine production ramps up and more vaccines are approved, we expect to see a significant uptick in COVID-19 vaccine and supply kit volume moving through our network," said Don Colleran, president and CEO for FedEx Express. "As manufacturers obtain approval to ship COVID-19 vaccines with greater temperature ranges and varying dosing allotments, we anticipate more of these packages moving to more places through our global network."

FedEx Express will transport the new COVID-19 vaccines and kits of supplies for administration of the vaccine, using its FedEx Priority Overnight® service supported by FedEx Priority Alert® advanced monitoring – the same process used for all COVID-19 vaccines packed out by McKesson Corp. and Pfizer Inc.

In addition to widespread distribution throughout the U.S., FedEx is delivering COVID-19 vaccines to U.S. military bases overseas for the Defense Logistics Agency, and is working closely with the Canadian government and healthcare companies to ship COVID-19 vaccines to all 13 Canadian provinces and territories.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex...151400955.html

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Huncho where you at on our RKT trade? Special dividend!! You planning to unload after it goes ex-div?

i gave up and got out of it a month ago when it spiked up a bit to 23 or so lol, i mostly had calls anyway and not too many shares. are you still holding?

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

More great news for FDX as we continue that march back to $300 for those on that train with me, up $10 today hitting a wall at $265 and our April calls should be up close to 100%. Making up ground on our May 300C. Fantastic news for future revenue streams as they take majority market share of vaccine shipping. Note the article also references the millions of doses they already have shipped for Q4.

FedEx Prepares For COVID-19 Vaccine Volume Growth, Begins Shipping Newly Approved Vaccine

FedEx Express, a subsidiary of FedEx Corp. (NYSE: FDX) and the world’s largest express transportation company, announced today that it has begun shipping the newly approved COVID-19 vaccine on behalf of McKesson Corp. to dosing centers throughout the United States.

The company has shipped millions of COVID-19 vaccines since U.S. distribution began in mid-December 2020 and is prepared to scale up to accommodate anticipated growth in vaccine volume throughout the spring and summer. Nearly three months after COVID-19 vaccine distribution began, FedEx has shipped COVID-19 vaccines and supply kits to administration sites across all 50 states, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Washington, D.C. COVID-19 vaccine volume is split evenly with FedEx moving approximately half the doses allocated by the federal government.

"As vaccine production ramps up and more vaccines are approved, we expect to see a significant uptick in COVID-19 vaccine and supply kit volume moving through our network," said Don Colleran, president and CEO for FedEx Express. "As manufacturers obtain approval to ship COVID-19 vaccines with greater temperature ranges and varying dosing allotments, we anticipate more of these packages moving to more places through our global network."

FedEx Express will transport the new COVID-19 vaccines and kits of supplies for administration of the vaccine, using its FedEx Priority Overnight® service supported by FedEx Priority Alert® advanced monitoring – the same process used for all COVID-19 vaccines packed out by McKesson Corp. and Pfizer Inc.

In addition to widespread distribution throughout the U.S., FedEx is delivering COVID-19 vaccines to U.S. military bases overseas for the Defense Logistics Agency, and is working closely with the Canadian government and healthcare companies to ship COVID-19 vaccines to all 13 Canadian provinces and territories.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex...151400955.html

I’m a little surprised by the (lack of) movement on my calls today. I’m in for a few June $320 calls, and they’ve actually dropped from last week lol, currently trading around $4.4/contract. Two weeks ago around the $264 price point they were going for about $6/contract. Can’t imagine that’s all time decay with still 109 days to expiry. I’ll probably sit tight for the earnings run up then flip them to longer dates before earnings.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

I’m a little surprised by the (lack of) movement on my calls today. I’m in for a few June $320 calls, and they’ve actually dropped from last week lol, currently trading around $4.4/contract. Two weeks ago around the $264 price point they were going for about $6/contract. Can’t imagine that’s all time decay with still 109 days to expiry. I’ll probably sit tight for the earnings run up then flip them to longer dates before earnings.

could also be the IV

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

could also be the IV

Seems it was about 40% then, nearly same as now. Basically all the strikes from $310 down went up 10-15% lol.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

Long time lurker. My focus is growth and value stocks and how dividends play into it. I’ve taken advice and listened to my heart and have built what I think is a good portfolio of about 20-25 stocks.

My apologies to the options folks, I’m just not going that route. Maybe my mid-50’s age : ) is showing through.

I’ve learned to buy and hold and protect my profits with stop orders. I’ve been chugging along but really the advice has been a bit stale for me over the last few hundred posts.

I love you all but really leaned in on bshannon and jpeezy’s advice, whether they knew it or not.

7sins, a wealth of knowledge, would love your continued insight on building/parsing stocks for a portfolio as well.

In case you are worried I’m not going anywhere. Haha. I’ll stay and pick from scattered tid bits.

A few asks since I got the courage to post, do I buy back more FSTLY? I sold half and have been riding on mostly profits left in. Do I simply hold on to those or buy back in with some of my profited capital?

What about BA, CRM, are they good buys?

I recently got sold out of BA due to stop in place and now it see it leveling off. I had WORK and sold after it shot up, and now that CRM has dropped, it seems like a good time to buy CRM?

What about COP. I think I know what to do: put a stop in place to protect my profits and keep holding, right?

Thanks again.

For COP, you want to be observant of March 4th, that is the next OPEC meeting. This will be significant if they raise production or not and I think will set the tone for prices. I am watching very closely, as I believe we will see much higher oil prices this year - Goldman came out with $100/b this year today. I've been playing it through RDS-B and BP as I like the indirect play on nat gas along with their commitment to growing their renewable energy exposure. Also ERX is a hidden gem of 2x leverage oil etf to cover many of the major oil players. I don't follow COP as much but I firmly believe demand will rise this year as people look to travel and get out of the house coupled with a possible supply strain if we can't ramp up production fast enough.

Originally Posted by huncho

i gave up and got out of it a month ago when it spiked up a bit to 23 or so lol, i mostly had calls anyway and not too many shares. are you still holding?

Fortunately yes, stuck with it even though been underwater since October but now have a decent gain. Can't wait to liquidate and move on.

Originally Posted by logo

Seems it was about 40% then, nearly same as now. Basically all the strikes from $310 down went up 10-15% lol.

I suspect VERY low OI at sub 200, not enough OI/interest to move it with the market and combined with it still being quite OTM is probably why you saw that today. Should see more movement as the price climbs and probably a bit of re-pricing to adjust tomorrow as well which is typical for low oi options. Showing IV at 36%.

[JParm]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/squar...230000134.html

SQ begins its financial services, thus the subsequent pop AH. Long here.

https://www.investors.com/news/techn...earnings-meli/

MELI with solid earnings; not very concerned with the the earnings miss, as the growth numbers are unreal. Might see some short-term weakness but again, I'm a buyer of significant downward pressure.

[chsu74]

Not sure how long this will stay up before taken down. Cramer talking about manipulating the market when he was a HF manager.


https://youtu.be/W90V_DyPJTs

[JParm]

https://twitter.com/TheMarkCooke/sta...14452410777600

SE continues to crush it; my highest conviction stock.

Look past the earnings miss and look at the triple-digit growth and outstanding guidance. They are unstoppable.

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://twitter.com/TheMarkCooke/sta...14452410777600

SE continues to crush it; my highest conviction stock.

Look past the earnings miss and look at the triple-digit growth and outstanding guidance. They are unstoppable.

Very happy to have reopened my position in this on the pullback after being stopped out a few weeks ago. This company can’t be stopped!

Also long SQ.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kodiak250]

I’m just here for the comments


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Bought PERI divesting from APPS. Its running.

Also following ARK on PACB since the mid teens.

PERI continues to under promise and over deliver trading at multiples lower compared to APPS, MGNI, KBNT, VERB and DMS(which just reported earnings miss.)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/perio...110000873.html

[huncho]

rkt up 70% today, 7sins - your patience paid off lol (if you held through this morning)

[ndls]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

https://twitter.com/TheMarkCooke/sta...14452410777600

SE continues to crush it; my highest conviction stock.

Look past the earnings miss and look at the triple-digit growth and outstanding guidance. They are unstoppable.

SE is my main exposure outside of North America. Has done very well for me, and the revenue growth is outstanding.

That being said, this ticker is getting beat down today. Market may still be in correction mode short term - this Friday's job numbers will be pretty important.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by ndls

SE is my main exposure outside of North America. Has done very well for me, and the revenue growth is outstanding.

That being said, this ticker is getting beat down today. Market may still be in correction mode short term - this Friday's job numbers will be pretty important.

Yes, there could still be some short-term pain overall, especially for the growth stocks.

Not concerned, however, as it is a core (actually my top) holding that I don't plan on selling over the next 3-5 years.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Yes, there could still be some short-term pain overall, especially for the growth stocks.

Not concerned, however, as it is a core (actually my top) holding that I don't plan on selling over the next 3-5 years.

Will you be expanding your portfolio to include Coupang when they go public?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Will you be expanding your portfolio to include Coupang when they go public?

I don't know enough about Coupang and I generally don't like to invest in IPOs, though U and AMWL did well for me before I got out.

Will definitely be something to keep an eye on though, as e-commerce will always be attractive to me. Thanks for this one.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by huncho

rkt up 70% today, 7sins - your patience paid off lol (if you held through this morning)

Premature as usual, closed out half of my position at 30 and rolling it all into CRVS. What a market.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

rkt up 70% today, 7sins - your patience paid off lol (if you held through this morning)

Lol too bad it is my second smallest position. Yes indeed, not intentionally as I waiting for their special dividend to go ex then was planning to sell. Will watch it for a few days and exit accordingly, bought in around $20 figuring 50% off IPO price was a good entry point.

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Premature as usual, closed out half of my position at 30 and rolling it all into CRVS. What a market.

Gains are still gains my friend. No rationale for an irrational market but a lot of this volatility will bring down good names. IE WMT is looking like a great entry point, off more than 12% over the last few weeks and a great article here for them getting ready to enter the fintech space too. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/walm...-start-up.html. Nice hidden gem with low option IV that should normalize soon.

[asloper6001]

7sins do you think the IV crush on PLTR will go back up if we get a little run up here soon? Or prepare for the premiums to stay at these prices for awhile now that we are out of ER, maybe wait till around next ER? I know its all driven by the demand, so I would assume on a run they would shoot back up again or closer to the next ER?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Premature as usual, closed out half of my position at 30 and rolling it all into CRVS. What a market.

i got out end of jan at around 23 and rolled it into something that i'm down on so...could be worse

Originally Posted by 7sins

Lol too bad it is my second smallest position. Yes indeed, not intentionally as I waiting for their special dividend to go ex then was planning to sell. Will watch it for a few days and exit accordingly, bought in around $20 figuring 50% off IPO price was a good entry point.

with all the calls up til june being in the money now i feel like there's probably some more room to go still, will be interesting to see what happens (and a bit painful because i was in it for so long)

[logo]

Bought NKE calls today for July expiry. They haven’t moved much since their previous blowout earnings, and they are sitting right on the 100 day moving average. IV is still not bad at around 35%, and I expect share price (and IV) will run into earnings over the next few weeks.

Also bought SRAC. Speculative, but man what a cool company. Basically a space valet and space janitor all in one lol.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by asloper6001

7sins do you think the IV crush on PLTR will go back up if we get a little run up here soon? Or prepare for the premiums to stay at these prices for awhile now that we are out of ER, maybe wait till around next ER? I know its all driven by the demand, so I would assume on a run they would shoot back up again or closer to the next ER?

That is exactly right, you will need a bit of a run up in PLTR and it will need to be sustained for more than a few days or have momentum/future expectations high for IV to rise. Also depends on when your options expire as you run into theta decay as well. You can see that IV has come in almost 30% from the moving average, back to Nov levels. Arguably IV north of 115% was incredibly high, made it a great candidate to write cash secured puts. Now that IV has come in a bit, if you are bullish on PLTR this could be a good time to add. If the stock continues to decline, options will get hit twice as hard as IV consolidates with the price simultaneously. I've been adding to Jan 2022 $30C today at 6.35 in small amounts adding to my positions. These peaked in early January for $18 when the price was close to $38. That is about 50% from where we are today but represents almost a 300% increase in the option should we get back to that stock price level. I think PLTR is a great long term play and try to buy under heavy selling volume but am finding better opportunities to spread asset purchases elsewhere.

Originally Posted by logo

Bought NKE calls today for July expiry. They haven’t moved much since their previous blowout earnings, and they are sitting right on the 100 day moving average. IV is still not bad at around 35%, and I expect share price (and IV) will run into earnings over the next few weeks.

Also bought SRAC. Speculative, but man what a cool company. Basically a space valet and space janitor all in one lol.

What strike NKE calls did you buy? I have been looking to buy once it dipped below $130

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

What strike NKE calls did you buy? I have been looking to buy once it dipped below $130

I bought the $140 calls. Figure it's basically ATM, with some good room to run over the next couple weeks if they creep back up towards their ATH at 148.

The 200MA is at 120, and I'll average down if they get there over the next couple weeks. However, they've held and bounced on the 100MA pretty solid the past month, so I am not convinced they will go much lower unless there's an earnings miss or significant broader market sell-off. I'll likely liquidate a good portion of my calls pre-earnings though (I own shares as well, which I'm holding).