Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[returntorolex]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Edit: I just realized you mentioned non diamond. There isn’t a recent posting of a non diamond dial for a 228206 that I could find.

This is the most recent posting I could find (July 5th). I’m sure market price lower now.

Thanks for the feedback. Ideal state for me is one of the following:

[returntorolex]

I am curious to know how far below retail they are trading.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by wb55

Yep, no question.

I can think of 10 billionaires that I'd call a fraud before Elon.... this is THE MOST independent thinking "Rich" man we've had in my lifetime... I'd even say Warren Buffet is a bigger fraud (not that I'm saying he is, just making the hyperbolic statement) ..


If the world had more Elon's and less Black Rocks ... we'd be more productive, less woke, and more free.

[pursang_]

Stop the Elon threadjacking, please.

It was a minor point in a watch youtube video that overall had minimal lasting value on the thread's purpose.

[pursang_]

Stop the Elon threadjacking, please.

It was a minor point in a watch youtube video that overall had minimal lasting value on the thread's purpose.

[Doc Savage]

There is a 2022 Datejust, ref 126301, on Moda for $16,500. With state sales tax, that total is less than retail ($15,950 + tax).

They keep on sliding.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

There is a 2022 Datejust, ref 126301, on Moda for $16,500. With state sales tax, that total is less than retail ($15,950 + tax).

They keep on sliding.

unless AD's are discounting to flippers, that's clearly a case of someone desperate to shed inventory due to being over leveraged.... these below MSRP prices WONT LAST.... mark my words. If you're a buyer, buy now.

[Mifune]

Looking for a NIB BLRO...

[DJ4]

Originally Posted by Mifune

Looking for a NIB BLRO...

Me 2, on jubilee


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[JRedford]

Originally Posted by HAL330

unless AD's are discounting to flippers, that's clearly a case of someone desperate to shed inventory due to being over leveraged.... these below MSRP prices WONT LAST.... mark my words. If you're a buyer, buy now.

I’ll mark you words, but will patiently wait as prices continue to fall.

IMHO the decline is worsening, not abating.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by JRedford

I’ll mark you words, but will patiently wait as prices continue to fall.

IMHO the decline is worsening, not abating.

Exactly.

Gray dealers are trying to liquidate inventory as prices continue to fall. I don't think they are in a hurry to buy more at retail prices.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Exactly.

Gray dealers are trying to liquidate inventory as prices continue to fall. I don't think they are in a hurry to buy more at retail prices.

Have to agree. I just don’t see some magic switch that’s flipped and prices go nuts again or even raise for a mass produced watch. For the first time in a good while there are PM pieces selling for basically MSRP with tax and some lower. Yes the Daytona in any metal is gonna be an exception and others.

Even a few SS models selling the same. Yes the SD43 isn’t the “hottest” of all models but I’ve seen quite a few BNIB like the ones I mentioned above selling for MSRP with tax.

I also think that a fair share of people have finally just had enough/burnt out is at play. Plus other economic issues. Besides it’s not like we are talking about AP or PP that manufactures way less annually.

At the end of the day who really knows. I can type all kinds of “what I think” replies but that doesn’t make it true Personally I’ve switched gears and started looking at more 5 digit models. You know the ones that made me fall in love with watches/Rolex to begin with decades ago.

[Vince_76]

Mint Pandas sitting for under 30k now

[eijiboy]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Have to agree. I just don’t see some magic switch that’s flipped and prices go nuts again or even raise for a mass produced watch. For the first time in a good while there are PM pieces selling for basically MSRP with tax and some lower. Yes the Daytona in any metal is gonna be an exception and others.

Even a few SS models selling the same. Yes the SD43 isn’t the “hottest” of all models but I’ve seen quite a few BNIB like the ones I mentioned above selling for MSRP with tax.

I also think that a fair share of people have finally just had enough/burnt out is at play. Plus other economic issues. Besides it’s not like we are talking about AP or PP that manufactures way less annually.

At the end of the day who really knows. I can type all kinds of “what I think” replies but that doesn’t make it true Personally I’ve switched gears and started looking at more 5 digit models. You know the ones that made me fall in love with watches/Rolex to begin with decades ago.

I just recently went to a grey dealer i met at moda in LA. If you wanna sell a watch to them, they wont buy unless they have a buyer already. They dont wanna stock. They want quick flip right away and dont wanna get stuck to the product.

[Incroyable12]

Pelosi's trip to Taiwan will only further stress the economy.

[HAL330]

are you guys all too young to remember the down turn in 1994? 2001? 2008??

Do you all remember how FAST it came back .. ?

Doom and gloom is easy to sell, and while we're in for a few months of doom, the sun will rise again and when it does WATCH demand skyrocket again.

Now is the time to buy... buy stocks, buy assets, watches, whatever you like .. it's not going to get much cheaper if at all.

MARK MY WORDS.. I'm not going anywhere...

[Incroyable12]

Someone is selling a package deal of two new VC Overseas and a new Lange Zeitwerk.

[AbeFroman]

Originally Posted by returntorolex

Thanks for the feedback. Ideal state for me is one of the following:

Just saw this.

[eijiboy]

Mint panda 31.5
2018 panda very good condition at 28k
Dipping still


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[Vince_76]

BNIB Wimbledon DJ41 trading notably under retail.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by HAL330

are you guys all too young to remember the down turn in 1994? 2001? 2008??

Do you all remember how FAST it came back .. ?

Doom and gloom is easy to sell, and while we're in for a few months of doom, the sun will rise again and when it does WATCH demand skyrocket again.

Now is the time to buy... buy stocks, buy assets, watches, whatever you like .. it's not going to get much cheaper if at all.

MARK MY WORDS.. I'm not going anywhere...

Not saying the overall economy can't rebound quickly, but I don't recall in any of the prior recessions where watches were trading at 2-4x MSRP and nothing was available from AD's. I think it's a big leap to assume that watches will continue to be an "asset class" like a lot of new money millionaires were led to believe.

Things were recently so utterly, absurdly out of control that people were buying monkey jpegs for millions, Pokemon cards had a resurgence, regular used cars were selling for more than original MSRP. The free money train that we've been riding since 2009 with interest rates at previously unseen low levels hit the afterburners with the trillions of dollars printed over the last 2 years. We've been skirting a recession for years, the pandemic postponed it & made the fallout worse, which we have yet to fully realize.

When this turns around (EOY 2022-Q2 2023?), I think those who got burned & manage to recover will be more conservative with their finances. Even then, I don't think we'll see a return to insanely low interest rates anytime soon, which will continue to depress home prices & speculative, leveraged buying of all other assets.

If some of the watches I want hit a price I'm willing to own them at, I'll buy. The fact that I haven't bought them now is not because I don't want them, or can't afford to, but because I don't see the value. I guess I'm just a small collector, aka rational watch enthusiast.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Andy0331

Not saying the overall economy can't rebound quickly, but I don't recall in any of the prior recessions where watches were trading at 2-4x MSRP and nothing was available from AD's. I think it's a big leap to assume that watches will continue to be an "asset class" like a lot of new money millionaires were led to believe.

Things were recently so utterly, absurdly out of control that people were buying monkey jpegs for millions, Pokemon cards had a resurgence, regular used cars were selling for more than original MSRP. The free money train that we've been riding since 2009 with interest rates at previously unseen low levels hit the afterburners with the trillions of dollars printed over the last 2 years. We've been skirting a recession for years, the pandemic postponed it & made the fallout worse, which we have yet to fully realize.

When this turns around (EOY 2022-Q2 2023?), I think those who got burned & manage to recover will be more conservative with their finances. Even then, I don't think we'll see a return to insanely low interest rates anytime soon, which will continue to depress home prices & speculative, leveraged buying of all other assets.

If some of the watches I want hit a price I'm willing to own them at, I'll buy. The fact that I haven't bought them now is not because I don't want them, or can't afford to, but because I don't see the value. I guess I'm just a small collector, aka rational watch enthusiast.

oh, if I were a betting man, I'd agree that we're not likely to see the 5X MSRP days return.... that's not what I'm saying... I'm saying that right now, maybe of the non-hype watches are selling at pre-2022 prices and in many cases, just over MSRP... that is the "norm" in a market where demand exceeds supply... so until we can actually walk into an AD and see several SS, TT and PM sports rolex models for sale, the idea of waiting for lower prices makes little sense... the prices we're seeing now on the gray market are in many cases below MSRP... this isn't going to last.. this is a temporary blip where the Demand is lower than the supply and dealers are "Dumping" in order to cashflow...

It will stabilize and when the economy returns, it will continue to rise at reasonable rates.

I've owned Rolex since 1988... with few exceptions, I've NEVER lost money when selling one ... even back in the 90's and early 2000's... because I hold them long enough that even the Rolex price increases cause the re-sale of the pre-owned to rise....

What I'm trying to say in not so many words... if you're in the market for a watch and you're not looking at it as a fliper .. or investment, you can't really go wrong right now.

Certain PP, over hyped non-Daytona, and AP models notwithstanding.... a $300K PP 5711/1R isn't going to come back... I say this as someone who bought on in 2018 for $49.5K from an AD.

[Andy0331]

Originally Posted by HAL330

oh, if I were a betting man, I'd agree that we're not likely to see the 5X MSRP days return.... that's not what I'm saying... I'm saying that right now, maybe of the non-hype watches are selling at pre-2022 prices and in many cases, just over MSRP... that is the "norm" in a market where demand exceeds supply... so until we can actually walk into an AD and see several SS, TT and PM sports rolex models for sale, the idea of waiting for lower prices makes little sense... the prices we're seeing now on the gray market are in many cases below MSRP... this isn't going to last.. this is a temporary blip where the Demand is lower than the supply and dealers are "Dumping" in order to cashflow...

It will stabilize and when the economy returns, it will continue to rise at reasonable rates.

I've owned Rolex since 1988... with few exceptions, I've NEVER lost money when selling one ... even back in the 90's and early 2000's... because I hold them long enough that even the Rolex price increases cause the re-sale of the pre-owned to rise....

What I'm trying to say in not so many words... if you're in the market for a watch and you're not looking at it as a fliper .. or investment, you can't really go wrong right now.

Certain PP, over hyped non-Daytona, and AP models notwithstanding.... a $300K PP 5711/1R isn't going to come back... I say this as someone who bought on in 2018 for $49.5K from an AD.

Okay, that makes a lot more sense. I read it as though we were in a dip before another huge jump. I think we still have a ways to go many regular production models, whether via greys dropping to ~MSRP or a buyer actually being able to be allocated a watch from an AD (with a "reasonable" wait).

The 2 production watches I (realistically) want now are a BLNR & a blue dial Sky Dweller. I imagine a BLNR will be obtainable from an AD with some wait. The Sky Dweller will likely cost me more, as production is far more limited and I no longer have an AD in my city, so I'm "nobody" again. I'm willing to pay some premium, but they still have a way to drop to meet my personal value point ($21-23k).

Unfortunately, the other watches I want are out of production, so the market holds the vote & supply will dictate the price. Not that all of them are high demand, just limited enough that it's tough. Hopefully a "slowed" market will help them too.

[DJ4]

Ap 15510 grey nib just sold at 50k moda

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by HAL330

are you guys all too young to remember the down turn in 1994? 2001? 2008??

Do you all remember how FAST it came back .. ?

Doom and gloom is easy to sell, and while we're in for a few months of doom, the sun will rise again and when it does WATCH demand skyrocket again.

Now is the time to buy... buy stocks, buy assets, watches, whatever you like .. it's not going to get much cheaper if at all.

MARK MY WORDS.. I'm not going anywhere...

Mar of 2000: Spy @ 150

Next time SPY hit 150? May of 2007.

SPY hit 153 in Oct of 2007. Next time it his 153? Feb of 2013.

Not exactly a few months!

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

Mar of 2000: Spy @ 150

Next time SPY hit 150? May of 2007.

SPY hit 153 in Oct of 2007. Next time it his 153? Feb of 2013.

Not exactly a few months!

we talking about the same market index? it's been in all new territory for the last decade...

[malice146]

Originally Posted by HAL330

we talking about the same market index? it's been in all new territory for the last decade...

He’s saying it took that long for it to return to its high after the dip. The graph shows the same thing.


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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by malice146

He’s saying it took that long for it to return to its high. The graph shows the same thing.


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I see that, but it was on the rise not more than a year after the bottom.. which is my whole point... what goes down, always goes back up.

[malice146]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I see that, but it was on the rise not more than a year after the bottom.. which is my whole point... what goes down, always goes back up.

Yes but not to its original high and not as fast as you claim. Which means that if you believe they prices will go up as fast as they came down, I think you are mistaken.


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[HAL330]

Originally Posted by malice146

Yes but not to its original high and not as fast as you claim. Which means that if you believe they prices will go up as fast as they came down, I think you are mistaken.


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um.. YES as fast... look at the chart again. But go ahead and panic... meantime, I'm buying up everything I can ... stocks, watches, and bitcoin.