Talking Stocks 2.0

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Anyone pro or con on CRM ( Salesforce)?

I like them quite a bit as a long term hold. I’ve added in the past month as well.


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[AshCashEmAll]

Hey I miss you guys. How’s everyone doing/ feeling about the market?!


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[Eyenigma]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Hey I miss you guys. How’s everyone doing/ feeling about the market?!

As long as the current administration keeps steering us towards hyperinflation, money will be readily available for everyone to invest. It will be good... until it isn't.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Hey I miss you guys. How’s everyone doing/ feeling about the market?!


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Feeling fine, continuing to do my research, buy, selling etc.

The thread seems to have run it course unfortunately

[JParm]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Feeling fine, continuing to do my research, buy, selling etc.

The thread seems to have run it course unfortunately

This.

The 2020 market was something else, and I think the chop that we're seeing in 2021 is here to stay for the time being.

Having said that, I have not been making as many moves as the previous year, so content with staying fully invested and watching the market shake out.

[trippinjimmy]

Same here. Trickling money in weekly/adding to positions, but don’t have anything new/noteworthy to add.

I still feel we run up to 4300-4600 this year and possibly up to 6,000 in the next 2-3 years.


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[Romeojk]

I really do miss the insight here. Especially since since my stop losses were set too tight and now I’m a little over 20% cash and need to get it back working. I’m looking long term and don’t ever really need to sell and wish I didn’t on a few and now here I am and they’ve run away a bit.

Here is what I have and then a couple of orders I placed, which now I don’t think will ever get filled. I put them in case it moves lower.

If you have any long picks for me that would be great. I do try to look at their financials and do understand them, but heck if I have any idea whether it will go up or down. Maybe I should mostly go with solid dividend company’s and maybe one growth.

I need 4 or maybe 5 to fill the gap I have





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[7sins]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

I really do miss the insight here. Especially since since my stop losses were set too tight and now I’m a little over 20% cash and need to get it back working. I’m looking long term and don’t ever really need to sell and wish I didn’t on a few and now here I am and they’ve run away a bit.

Here is what I have and then a couple of orders I placed, which now I don’t think will ever get filled. I put them in case it moves lower.

If you have any long picks for me that would be great. I do try to look at their financials and do understand them, but heck if I have any idea whether it will go up or down. Maybe I should mostly go with solid dividend company’s and maybe one growth.

I need 4 or maybe 5 to fill the gap I have





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Just an alternative suggestion, when it comes to stop-loss setting, have you thought about using a multi-stop-loss instead of completely exiting a position when the stop loss is triggered? IE if the stock trades at $100 and you put a stop loss at $95, your complete position is sold at $95. Opposed to selling 25% at $95, 25% at $90 then 50% at $85 - or whatever percentage and SP you want to use. That way you can still protect your gains by having multiple legs down, however, should the stock price turnaround, you still have some of your original exposure and you aren't completely stopped out by unexpected volatility.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just an alternative suggestion, when it comes to stop-loss setting, have you thought about using a multi-stop-loss instead of completely exiting a position when the stop loss is triggered? IE if the stock trades at $100 and you put a stop loss at $95, your complete position is sold at $95. Opposed to selling 25% at $95, 25% at $90 then 50% at $85 - or whatever percentage and SP you want to use. That way you can still protect your gains by having multiple legs down, however, should the stock price turnaround, you still have some of your original exposure and you aren't completely stopped out by unexpected volatility.

Thank you for sharing your advice. I should’ve used this strategy today as my Pinterest contracts were moving up and down throughout the day and it would of saved me a little. Unfortunately I sold all my contracts because it hit my stop loss.

I added FDX 300c leaps today and will implement this strategy moving forward.


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Thank you for sharing your advice. I should’ve used this strategy today as my Pinterest contracts were moving up and down throughout the day and it would of saved me a little. Unfortunately I sold all my contracts because it hit my stop loss.

I added FDX 300c leaps today and will implement this strategy moving forward.


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You are welcome, happy to help! Remember with options, if you can, you always want to buy LEAPS/options on a day when the stock is down and ideally when volatility has subdued, or at least the outer bands of a vol bell curve come in, causing IV to normalize lower. This will often help in getting you the best in pricing options. Not always plausible but patience and timing is key with options, make sure to keep an eye on on your option Greeks too, most notably Vega, Theta, Delta and Gamma.

[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just an alternative suggestion, when it comes to stop-loss setting, have you thought about using a multi-stop-loss instead of completely exiting a position when the stop loss is triggered? IE if the stock trades at $100 and you put a stop loss at $95, your complete position is sold at $95. Opposed to selling 25% at $95, 25% at $90 then 50% at $85 - or whatever percentage and SP you want to use. That way you can still protect your gains by having multiple legs down, however, should the stock price turnaround, you still have some of your original exposure and you aren't completely stopped out by unexpected volatility.

Thanks. Great idea!


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[JWD531]

Originally Posted by Romeojk

Thanks. Great idea!


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I would also consider taking profits with that same strategy, depending on the timing. If I get to 50% of my price target much sooner than anticipated, I’ll take some profits there, and again at 75% and or 100% profits - I don’t have to patience to always wait until 100%, so I just put some interim targets to appease my own personality.


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[JParm]

Opened a position in DIS, which marks my first foray back into a non-growth stock in my growth portfolio since the middle of last year.

I just can't stay away from them, it seems.

[AshCashEmAll]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You are welcome, happy to help! Remember with options, if you can, you always want to buy LEAPS/options on a day when the stock is down and ideally when volatility has subdued, or at least the outer bands of a vol bell curve come in, causing IV to normalize lower. This will often help in getting you the best in pricing options. Not always plausible but patience and timing is key with options, make sure to keep an eye on on your option Greeks too, most notably Vega, Theta, Delta and Gamma.

For some reason I check the iv on the internet and it said it was low... guess I made a mistake and got hurt pretty badly today. Would you recommend averaging down in a situation such as this?


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[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Opened a position in DIS, which marks my first foray back into a non-growth stock in my growth portfolio since the middle of last year.

I just can't stay away from them, it seems.

Other stocks that seem to go down when I am in them, up at other times: C, NFLX, BRK.B.

But DIS should be a good reopening play.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You are welcome, happy to help! Remember with options, if you can, you always want to buy LEAPS/options on a day when the stock is down and ideally when volatility has subdued, or at least the outer bands of a vol bell curve come in, causing IV to normalize lower. This will often help in getting you the best in pricing options. Not always plausible but patience and timing is key with options, make sure to keep an eye on on your option Greeks too, most notably Vega, Theta, Delta and Gamma.

Hi Sins,

What's your take on TAK? At what point will you look into rolling your calls or considering taking a loss/looking at alternatives?

Still holding my 1/21/22 calls about 50% down.

[trippinjimmy]

For those who can stomach it being a Chinese stock, and I've said this before, not only have I found BABA very attractive at these levels, Charlie Munger just initiated a large stake recently as well. It's a gamble for sure, but one with significant upside.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

For some reason I check the iv on the internet and it said it was low... guess I made a mistake and got hurt pretty badly today. Would you recommend averaging down in a situation such as this?


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You will drive yourself insane checking option pricing intra-daily. Remember that is why you buy longer dated options to let your theory and position play out. I would also suggest to BUILD a position in options, never go 100% allocation in one day. IE if I am allocating $100k to BP options, I try to spread the $100k out over several days/weeks based on conviction and momentum. This allows you to dollar cost average in and either catch the upside or at least lower your entry point should the price decline.

In terms of recommendation, that is based on your conviction of the underlying stock AND more importantly, do you believe that your capital can be better allocated elsewhere? FDX is a very frustrating position, back to back best ever posted quarter, raised guidance and all raised analyst PO yet the stock can't break $285. I mentioned on here a few weeks back when it was near $240 I was adding to april $270c, I used those gains to cover some of my losses in other FDX calls I own back from Dec. Still underwater there. I am slowly unwinding my position there as I see better opportunities elsewhere and building a cash reserve to utilize on future vol.

Originally Posted by bimmer nerd

Hi Sins,

What's your take on TAK? At what point will you look into rolling your calls or considering taking a loss/looking at alternatives?

Still holding my 1/21/22 calls about 50% down.

Tak has been frustrating, especially with all of their positive announcements including their distribution of MRNA vaccine to Japan. Along with doubling their 9 month operating profit. Similar to FDX, nothing but great news and the stock has traded sideways to down. A part of this I believe is due to the massive size float, similar to PFE.

The question about losses is dictated by your conviction in the underlying security and can you allocate capital elsewhere for more upside. Typically I wait until there is 6 months left in the option before evaluating to take the loss or stay invested. Otherwise, there are times where I will peel off a position, generate short term cap loss to offset cap gains elsewhere and use that money in positions I see more upside in.

Originally Posted by trippinjimmy

For those who can stomach it being a Chinese stock, and I've said this before, not only have I found BABA very attractive at these levels, Charlie Munger just initiated a large stake recently as well. It's a gamble for sure, but one with significant upside.

Would look into TME as well.

[austinp]

What % stop loss do you guys think is smart right now in a non taxable account. And if it hits what % to rebuy? This account has mostly large cap growth companies that I consider my core. FAAMG, HD, WMT,COST, MA, INTU. I’ve always been a buy and hold guy but I’m trying to get better at protecting the gains.


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by austinp

What % stop loss do you guys think is smart right now in a non taxable account. And if it hits what % to rebuy? This account has mostly large cap growth companies that I consider my core. FAAMG, HD, WMT,COST, MA, INTU. I’ve always been a buy and hold guy but I’m trying to get better at protecting the gains.


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You should NOT set a blanket stop-loss across your entire portfolio. Each security should have a different stop-loss, or a multi-leg stop loss as I have discussed earlier. First, take a step back and ask what the role of each security is in your portfolio? Is it defensive? Growth? Momentum? Then look at how much profit you have in each position and how comfortable you are with how much profit you are willing to let stay invested. Only you can answer these questions, that will allow you to set your stop loss for each position. To take it one step further, you need to ask at what price does this security become attractive again so you can re-enter the position. We talked about this with NVDA when it dropped below $500 and APPL below $120 a few weeks back.

It takes time, effort and thought to manage a portfolio this way, however when you have a gameplan and stick to it, that is often when you will realize your highest returns with less volatility.

Just my .02 after years of trying to manage loss aversion.

[Xelorpepsi]

It is very hard to answer your question without knowing your aversion to risk, investment horizon, age, net worth, family situation, personal balance sheet, ability to take a loss, etc.

I agree with all the points made by 7sins. To give you an example, I have absolutely no problem holding a speculative stock such as DMTK even if the stock drops by 75%, but I would be very uncomfortable holding a market darling such as APPL if the stock were to drop by 30%+ vs my purchase price. That's the typical case where a stop loss would make a lot of sense.

[logo]

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

It is very hard to answer your question without knowing your aversion to risk, investment horizon, age, net worth, family situation, personal balance sheet, ability to take a loss, etc.

I agree with all the points made by 7sins. To give you an example, I have absolutely no problem holding a speculative stock such as DMTK even if the stock drops by 75%, but I would be very uncomfortable holding a market darling such as APPL if the stock were to drop by 30%+ vs my purchase price. That's the typical case where a stop loss would make a lot of sense.

Since you mentioned DMTK, what are your thoughts on this one? I remember checking them out back at $14/share and I was not convinced their tech would be game changing enough or too difficult to generate consistent profit, so didn’t really look deeper at the time but evidently they have been charging higher since.

[scarlet knight]

People need pants to get back in the world. I bought Kontour. Look at Levi’s, AEO, others like this.

[sokoloka]

I've popped this in the prior Talking Stocks thread as well but ATEC has had a monster 1 year chart and looks to keep churning with massive YoY growth again slated for 2021.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/atec-...130500804.html

[kwr]

Originally Posted by logo

Since you mentioned DMTK, what are your thoughts on this one? I remember checking them out back at $14/share and I was not convinced their tech would be game changing enough or too difficult to generate consistent profit, so didn’t really look deeper at the time but evidently they have been charging higher since.

What turned you off initially? They've derisked the story from clinical data, its part of the NCCN guidelines for skin cancer treatment, and reimbursement looks to be getting better. Obviously, the valuation and stock move reflects that and more. Curious on what kept you on the sidelines as it sounded like you had business model / profitability concerns?

[7sins]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bi...ng-11617980510

Worth the 2 minute read, I have copied the article below and I think once digested, there are several sectors/stocks that will benefit with this 2022 spending proposal. Most notably for me was almost a 2% increase, now $715B for the Defense Department - I think this bodes well for defense companies like LMT. Especially since the market was anticipating a cut to defense spending to help curtail spending.

Biden’s $1.5 trillion budget outline calls for new health agency and 16% rise in non-defense, discretionary spending

The Biden White House on Friday took the wraps off its fiscal 2022 discretionary spending proposal, with the $1.5 trillion budget outline calling for a new health agency as well as a 16% increase in non-defense outlays.

The outline, often called a “skinny budget,” requests $6.5 billion to launch the “Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health,” or ARPA-H. The new outfit would have an initial focus on cancer and diseases like diabetes and Alzheimer’s, and ultimately would aim to help drive transformational innovations in health research, Biden administration officials told reporters.

Administration officials said the U.S. has been under-investing in core public services, benefits and protections over the last 10 years, and their request for $769 billion for non-defense discretionary spending — a 16% rise over fiscal 2021’s enacted level — would return this category of spending to 3.3% of GDP, roughly the historical average over the last 30 years.

The budget outline calls for $715 billion for the Defense Department, representing a 1.6% rise from the current level and making up the bulk of the $753 billion requested for national defense programs. While progressive groups are criticizing the stepped-up money for the Pentagon, administration officials said a large chunk of that increase is to pay for the pay raise for men and women in uniform and the civilians that support them.

Other highlights include $36.5 billion in Title I grants to provide funding for high-poverty schools, $10.7 billion for fighting the opioid epidemic, $8.7 billion for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and $2.1 billion to address gun violence.

The discretionary spending request is “a package of proposals to help build on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and improve the public health infrastructure; create an economy that works for everyone; mount a historic, whole-of-Government approach to combating climate change, advance equity across the Nation and economy; and restore America’s standing around the world,” said Shalanda Young, acting director of the Office of Management and Budget, in a letter to lawmakers.
Ahead of the budget outline’s rollout, critics suggested it could raise more questions than it answered in the wake of a $1.9 trillion stimulus package and Biden’s $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal.

“The central issue is what are they going to assert they get in the way of economic growth out of their combination of the American Rescue Plan, the American Jobs Plan and whatever sequel it might have and how does that fit into some sort of budgetary strategy regarding the structural deficit that we have? And one year of discretionary numbers doesn’t shed light on either of those things,” Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of the conservative American Action Forum think tank and a former head of the Congressional Budget Office, told MarketWatch.

See: Cascade of red ink poses risks for Biden’s budget rollout

Discretionary funding makes up only about a third of annual spending by the government, as Medicare, Social Security and other entitlement programs take up more and more resources. It has become customary for new administrations to release their proposed discretionary spending for the next budget year around this time, and their outlines then can be used by lawmakers on Capitol Hill to begin writing the annual appropriations bills.

The administration plans to release a full budget proposal later this spring.

[chsu74]

^ looking at the LMT chart.. where do you enter? Looks like ship sailed unless market pulls back.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

^ looking at the LMT chart.. where do you enter? Looks like ship sailed unless market pulls back.

I bought in when Cathy Woods start purchasing back in Jan, think I posted about it here after doing a bit of my own research. Didn't catch the bottom but I think ~$340. I own LMT $370C jan 2022, trading at $35 today, one year rolling high is $77. My plan was to start peeling gains but will probably keep a bit longer, I would not add, I think stock needs to consolidate before/if it goes higher. If you read the charts, it usually reverts back to $350/$360 after it hits resistance. Attractive at forward P/E of 13, EPS 24 and sustainable ROA at 13% - weary of high PEG and high debt/eq ratio though.

To your point, I would not personally add or enter at these levels, I think there will be better entry points and would not expect significant gains but should be stable. It is similar to VMW, I look to often add when it drops below $150/$145, it trades in a very narrow channel and no one is pricing in their spinoff from Dell in Sept. Point being, I would look for price targets where you add on pull backs and DCA in. In this expensive market, identifying dislocations isn't easy but I think where you could find more future returns. Plus I like that LMT resides in a sector I have very limited exposure to and could add a hedge should political tensions rise with other countries.

Just my .02.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I bought in when Cathy Woods start purchasing back in Jan, think I posted about it here after doing a bit of my own research. Didn't catch the bottom but I think ~$340. I own LMT $370C jan 2022, trading at $35 today, one year rolling high is $77. My plan was to start peeling gains but will probably keep a bit longer, I would not add, I think stock needs to consolidate before/if it goes higher. If you read the charts, it usually reverts back to $350/$360 after it hits resistance. Attractive at forward P/E of 13, EPS 24 and sustainable ROA at 13% - weary of high PEG and high debt/eq ratio though.

To your point, I would not personally add or enter at these levels, I think there will be better entry points and would not expect significant gains but should be stable. It is similar to VMW, I look to often add when it drops below $150/$145, it trades in a very narrow channel and no one is pricing in their spinoff from Dell in Sept. Point being, I would look for price targets where you add on pull backs and DCA in. In this expensive market, identifying dislocations isn't easy but I think where you could find more future returns. Plus I like that LMT resides in a sector I have very limited exposure to and could add a hedge should political tensions rise with other countries.

Just my .02.

I agree, I have June $400 calls which I am up ~100% on and plan to sell those probably next week or the week after before earnings. I’ll hope to take advantage of what should be a bit of an IV spike, and I think (just my guess) it’ll probably get to the 390-395 range pre-earnings. That seems to be where the next resistance level is. I suspect it’ll dip a bit afterwards to consolidate where I’ll likely re-enter with leaps.

[bimmer nerd]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Tak has been frustrating, especially with all of their positive announcements including their distribution of MRNA vaccine to Japan. Along with doubling their 9 month operating profit. Similar to FDX, nothing but great news and the stock has traded sideways to down. A part of this I believe is due to the massive size float, similar to PFE.

The question about losses is dictated by your conviction in the underlying security and can you allocate capital elsewhere for more upside. Typically I wait until there is 6 months left in the option before evaluating to take the loss or stay invested. Otherwise, there are times where I will peel off a position, generate short term cap loss to offset cap gains elsewhere and use that money in positions I see more upside in.

Agreed.

It had a good run for couple of weeks until it hit the $20 resistance and it has been bleeding out since.
My thought was to wait till May/June as well, I remember reading May being a plausible timeframe for the vaccine approval in Japan. Hopefully thats a good enough catalyst.