Talking Stocks 2.0

[904VT]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed



Then that is very poor planning. Liquidating assets in those amounts should be planned.

1 million in income is a good starting number as it is meant to target the highest earning people.

I agree you should to plan of course (as best you can). Very easy to exceed $1m though if selling a property and downsizing as a married couple in/approaching retirement. Or have an unforeseen health emergency. Both those scenarios get penalized, even if not UHNW. That's why the $1m threshold is way too low. Especially any baby boomers that own a house and have seen massive gains over the years on paper. This just increases the gap between the upper middle class and the UHNW and comes at the worst possible time for boomers. Poor demographic planning as is. This will drive a move towards consumption today at the expense of savings tomorrow. Poor timing for that as well.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Let’s be honest here, $1M should NOT be the top tax bracket. There should be more tax brackets at $5M, $10M etc. Someone making $1M should not be taxed at the same rate as someone earning $50M. As we all know, those who are in the upper echelon of wealth often have many tax loopholes to pay less in taxes.

All in all, this will bode well for the municipal bond market.

I tend to agree with you here. To get to $1m in a taxable account can take quite a huge sacrifice from some people looking to simply have financial freedom near retirement. There is a huge difference between the lifestyle of a retiree with $1m and one with $10m. Also, due to recent trends, I doubt the floor stays at $1m, but likely even lower, which is even more annoying/disturbing.

For earners below Roth IRA thresholds, it should be clearer now more than ever to prioritize Roth options if you can, as well as HSA investment if that’s an option. No doubt, eventually the rules will change with those too...


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[egri]

Originally Posted by JWD531

For earners below Roth IRA thresholds, it should be clearer now more than ever to prioritize Roth options if you can, as well as HSA investment if that’s an option. No doubt, eventually the rules will change with those too...

I agree with your other points, though not about Roths, if for no other reason than the politician who taxes those will lose the votes of everyone earning under $124,000 a year.

[albertf]

I think adding in an additional tax bracket (+5-6%) isn't really going to hurt that much.

Making changes to 1031 exchanges/step-up basis will impact things alot more

[7sins]

I’ve been POUNDING the table with you guys on EVERY page, to the point of being annoying, with COTY and their turnaround story. They just announced outlined their accelerated growth plan today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coty-...120000939.html

Up over 10% today, options should be up 200-300% the last month, hope you guys got in. Already at my $10 price target three months ahead of time.

[7sins]

Double post.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Agreed



Then that is very poor planning. Liquidating assets in those amounts should be planned.

1 million in income is a good starting number as it is meant to target the highest earning people.

What about someone who sells a business they have built over a couple decades? Doesn’t take much to get over 1mm in the year of the sale only to drop below right after. This change would have pushed my cap gains rate up over 52% on the sale of my business. At what point is it enough?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I’ve been POUNDING the table with you guys on EVERY page, to the point of being annoying, with COTY and their turnaround story. They just announced outlined their accelerated growth plan today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coty-...120000939.html

Up over 10% today, options should be up 200-300% the last month, hope you guys got in. Already at my $10 price target three months ahead of time.

these coty options are so weird to me, i got in on them right after earnings at around $6.6 or so (jan 2022 10c), and as of earlier this week i was actually down on them, which is why i added more. can't imagine that was all IV since i got in after earnings when the contracts were dirt cheap, but maybe i'm wrong. currently up 50% though and holding

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by SMD

What about someone who sells a business they have built over a couple decades? Doesn’t take much to get over 1mm in the year of the sale only to drop below right after. This change would have pushed my cap gains rate up over 52% on the sale of my business. At what point is it enough?

I am not a tax attorney or CPA.

Is this sale a return of capital or income? It would seem to me that there are going to be people that whine every step of the way about every single thing.

A sale such as that should have professional guidance going in.

The Attorney or Broker who makes more than a million dollars a year should pay more taxes including withholding for Social Security, IMHO.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

these coty options are so weird to me, i got in on them right after earnings at around $6.6 or so (jan 2022 10c), and as of earlier this week i was actually down on them, which is why i added more. can't imagine that was all IV since i got in after earnings when the contracts were dirt cheap, but maybe i'm wrong. currently up 50% though and holding

What was your cost? IV does usually drop after earnings but can still remain elevated, you want to look for normalization in IV, like what we saw with VIAC a few days after price stabilization. I show on Jan 2022 10C cost after last month earnings roughly ~$1.25 near bottom to $2.20 today which should be 80% or so (annualized to over 950%+ :) ). On the $12C it should be closer to 140%, further OTM higher your returns should be.Trim your gains the way up, wait for pull back, especially in these volatile stocks and then use those gains to add back to your position to dramatically increase your total return.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

What was your cost? IV does usually drop after earnings but can still remain elevated, you want to look for normalization in IV, like what we saw with VIAC a few days after price stabilization. I show on Jan 2022 10C cost after last month earnings roughly ~$1.25 near bottom to $2.20 today which should be 80% or so (annualized to over 950%+ :) ). On the $12C it should be closer to 140%, further OTM higher your returns should be.Trim your gains the way up, wait for pull back, especially in these volatile stocks and then use those gains to add back to your position to dramatically increase your total return.

my cost is 1.4

[Magnum75]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I’ve been POUNDING the table with you guys on EVERY page, to the point of being annoying, with COTY and their turnaround story. They just announced outlined their accelerated growth plan today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coty-...120000939.html

Up over 10% today, options should be up 200-300% the last month, hope you guys got in. Already at my $10 price target three months ahead of time.

Yep. Got in at the start of February and kept buying on the dips.

[JWD531]

Originally Posted by egri

I agree with your other points, though not about Roths, if for no other reason than the politician who taxes those will lose the votes of everyone earning under $124,000 a year.

Haha! I don’t think those will go away, I just recommend people use them before they make too much money. I DO think HSAs will eventually get taxed.


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[Flex368]

Thanks @7sins

COTY.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I’ve been POUNDING the table with you guys on EVERY page, to the point of being annoying, with COTY and their turnaround story. They just announced outlined their accelerated growth plan today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coty-...120000939.html

Up over 10% today, options should be up 200-300% the last month, hope you guys got in. Already at my $10 price target three months ahead of time.

I jumped in late but profiting nicely. Many thanks! In mid-Jan , I bought COTY Jan 21 2022 $8 call contracts at $2.00 and 2.11.

Now just need my bundle of July 16 21 and Jan 21 22 CCIV call contracts to hit. Picked these up in late Jan. so my purchase prices are decent. I did trim a little in mid-Feb (but not enough) so I won’t lose money.

July = $25 & $35 strikes
Jan = $30 & $35 strikes

[hkuo]

I bought $8C Jan 2022 COTY options after their last earnings and got in around $1.81 and $1.85. I trimmed half of them today once I got back over 60% gains. If COTY dips again I’ll definitely buy more calls. Thanks 7sins and others who posted about COTY! My first time buying/selling options is off to a solid start.

[jltait]

Thanks 7Sins on the Coty call. Picked up some shares in my IRA a couple of months ago. Beyond the reopening trade it looks like this company is really going to have legs in China. Can imagine them selling a lot of Gucci branded cosmetics there.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by jltait

Thanks 7Sins on the Coty call. Picked up some shares in my IRA a couple of months ago. Beyond the reopening trade it looks like this company is really going to have legs in China. Can imagine them selling a lot of Gucci branded cosmetics there.

Originally Posted by hkuo

I bought $8C Jan 2022 COTY options after their last earnings and got in around $1.81 and $1.85. I trimmed half of them today once I got back over 60% gains. If COTY dips again I’ll definitely buy more calls. Thanks 7sins and others who posted about COTY! My first time buying/selling options is off to a solid start.

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I jumped in late but profiting nicely. Many thanks! In mid-Jan , I bought COTY Jan 21 2022 $8 call contracts at $2.00 and 2.11.

Originally Posted by Flex368

Thanks @7sins

COTY.

Originally Posted by Magnum75

Yep. Got in at the start of February and kept buying on the dips.

Congrats guys! REMEMBER, trim the gains on the way up, use those gains/cash to buy on the dips. I see many novice investors, look at their large gains and believe that trend will continue into the future. While probable, take a portion of your profit and be patient for better entry points, this will substantially help with compounding returns, for better perspective:

2 40% returns = 96% return
4 20% returns = 107% return
12 10% returns = 214% return


Certainly a lot easier to find a handful of stocks to generate 10% return than two 40% returns and still double your return with the former. As I said in previous posts, when markets get near all time highs, it is inexpensive to hedge with VIX calls or long term puts on over-priced stocks that you can profit from when the market pulls back then rotate into new positions. The idea is to profit in every market.

[What’s The Time]

Came across a stock I absolutely love and wanted to share. I've been following silently here the past several months and appreciate the advice everyone contributes as I've found it incredibly valuable. Hope this can help contribute and I'd love to hear some insight as to what others think.

HZAC is taking Vivid Seats, a secondary marketplace in the ticketing industry public via SPAC. Current share price values the company at just under 2b.

I have worked and been very successful in the ticketing industry for the past 8 years and do business with Vivid Seats regularly. For the past 5-6 years there has been a clear and evident trend of Vivid Seats on the rise as compared to their competitors (Stubhub, Seatgeek, Gametime, etc.) Stubhub is generally seen by the public as the top source of secondary market tickets but my sales as well as many colleagues have seen a drastic decline through their site and a massive uptick in sales on Vivid. Furthermore, Stubhub's reputation with their sellers has taken a MASSIVE hit due to their policies throughout Covid. They have restricted cash flow and are still working with minimal customer service while Vivid Seats is fully operational and providing their sellers with sufficient cash flow. It has become a running joke and reality that many sellers hold back their inventory from Stubhub.

Ebay sold Stubhub to Viagogo in February 2020 for 4b and with Vivid Seats as the current industry favorite, I have to assume it will overtake Stubhub's valuation in a rapidly growing industry.

Has this been on anyone elses radar? Any thoughts?


https://www.horizonacquisitioncorp.c...21.2021_vF.pdf

[jaisonline]

Common sense yet great advice based on my own past costly blunders. I learned the hard way. Thanks 7sins.

Originally Posted by 7sins

Congrats guys! REMEMBER, trim the gains on the way up, use those gains/cash to buy on the dips. I see many novice investors, look at their large gains and believe that trend will continue into the future. While probable, take a portion of your profit and be patient for better entry points, this will substantially help with compounding returns, for better perspective:

2 40% returns = 96% return
4 20% returns = 107% return
12 10% returns = 214% return


Certainly a lot easier to find a handful of stocks to generate 10% return than two 40% returns and still double your return with the former. As I said in previous posts, when markets get near all time highs, it is inexpensive to hedge with VIX calls or long term puts on over-priced stocks that you can profit from when the market pulls back then rotate into new positions. The idea is to profit in every market.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 7sins

2 40% returns = 96% return
4 20% returns = 107% return
12 10% returns = 214% return

This is one of the best points I have seen in this entire thread

While I disagree with most of the discussion lately, the issue today is that many are looking for a home run each and every time no matter whether it is an internet hype stock, fake currency or watch pretending to be an investment.

No one ever went broke taking a profit.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Congrats guys! REMEMBER, trim the gains on the way up, use those gains/cash to buy on the dips. I see many novice investors, look at their large gains and believe that trend will continue into the future. While probable, take a portion of your profit and be patient for better entry points, this will substantially help with compounding returns, for better perspective:

2 40% returns = 96% return
4 20% returns = 107% return
12 10% returns = 214% return


Certainly a lot easier to find a handful of stocks to generate 10% return than two 40% returns and still double your return with the former. As I said in previous posts, when markets get near all time highs, it is inexpensive to hedge with VIX calls or long term puts on over-priced stocks that you can profit from when the market pulls back then rotate into new positions. The idea is to profit in every market.

Originally Posted by beshannon

This is one of the best points I have seen in this entire thread

While I disagree with most of the discussion lately, the issue today is that many are looking for a home run each and every time no matter whether it is an internet hype stock, fake currency or watch pretending to be an investment.

No one ever went broke taking a profit.

I actually did just that - trimmed about 20% from each of my stocks to build cash, as I was fully invested.

Nothing says we can't go higher - but I'd rather have a bit of cash on the ready as we sit near ATH's.

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I see many novice investors, look at their large gains and believe that trend will continue into the future.

Dammit Bryan, why do I feel like this is directed squarely at me?

[logo]

Unloaded the majority of my FDX June calls today at roughly break even, which I’m happy about based on how it’s traded the past few months. Still have a few remaining with stop-losses set, but feels good to unload cash after DCA-ing for months. I’ll probably rebuy long-dated calls for FDX, I think under $300 is still very reasonably priced for this business.

[77T]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I see many novice investors, look at their large gains and believe that trend will continue into the future.

It can shrink?



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[austinp]

Is there a general rule of thumb to know at what percentage gain do you start trimming? What percentage of position to trim? What percentage dip to rebuy?
I’ve never been good at selling. I’m always riding the ups and downs and DCA new money. I’ve gotten lucky and exceeded my goals but I want to get better at protecting these gains and prepare for this long run to end.


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[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Congrats guys! REMEMBER, trim the gains on the way up, use those gains/cash to buy on the dips. I see many novice investors, look at their large gains and believe that trend will continue into the future. While probable, take a portion of your profit and be patient for better entry points, this will substantially help with compounding returns, for better perspective:

2 40% returns = 96% return
4 20% returns = 107% return
12 10% returns = 214% return


Certainly a lot easier to find a handful of stocks to generate 10% return than two 40% returns and still double your return with the former. As I said in previous posts, when markets get near all time highs, it is inexpensive to hedge with VIX calls or long term puts on over-priced stocks that you can profit from when the market pulls back then rotate into new positions. The idea is to profit in every market.

Curious, what VIX call strikes/expiry do you look for? Are these more short term options you are buying or do you still tend to buy long term and DCA?

[AshCashEmAll]

How do y’all feel about PINS. Expected to triple revenues next quarter but stock took a dive due to expectations of losing 2million users. Down almost 15%? Am I crazy for thinking this stock is at a discount right now ?


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[daytonaTBR]

Is coty still a buy?

[JParm]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

How do y’all feel about PINS. Expected to triple revenues next quarter but stock took a dive due to expectations of losing 2million users. Down almost 15%? Am I crazy for thinking this stock is at a discount right now ?


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I reduced about 20% of my position going into earnings to book profit, and subsequently resupplied yesterday. Beat on top and bottom line but the MAU numbers weren't as welcomed by the market.

I've always said this is a long-term hold for me. It's had a great run and I would expect it to cool down a bit - like most tech stocks that benefited from COVID - but the story hasn't changed for me. As we get back into the swing of things, marketing dollars will come back, so even with a reduction in users / time on the site, you should see more companies flowing into PINS (and others) as digital ad spend increases.

Bottom line, it's going to look like cyclicals will crush numbers when compared to 2020/21 output, while tech stocks will look like laggards when comparing future numbers to those seen this past year. But you can't take that in a vacuum...