Talking Stocks 2.0

[Beo3]

Thanks for the pep talk Jesse.

Being new to this game, days like the last few are making me rethink some of my decisions.

I bought Coty based on some of the banter here but, inadvertently did not watch when to dump it. Today may be that day if it drops drastically at the open.

[huncho]

i feel like there's still room for things to get worse, especially since march was worse, but at this point i believe this is the 8th red day out of 9? only friday was green

[strettyend]

That bounce off the lows after the open was wild

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

If you're a growth investor (like I am), I know these are painful days. Fintwit is awash in negativity - but don't let it get you down, is all I can say.

A lot of the high flying names are down big, yet their businesses are at their best ever. I have reduced some exposure, as who knows when the pain will end, but I'm still holding onto about 10 names that I truly think will continue to lead into the future.

Hang in there everyone!

Agreed. Buy when's there's blood in the streets. We should be thankful for red days, provided you're a long term investor and not trading, because it gives an opportunity to get things at a discount! The market doesn't go up, up, up - it has staircase movement. We'll have on average 1 10% loss per year, a 20% loss every 3-5 years, and 30+% every 10 years or so, yet the market long term is still returning 8-12% per year. Be prepared and have cash on the ready for the red days!

Have cash for the crash. I personally DCA small amounts into the companies I believe in weekly, and then I go heavy when there's a significant discount provided my thesis hasn't changed.

I love PLTRs prospects and was buying all the way down yesterday, opened at what, 17.50 maybe, and already back up to 19.70.

[logo]

Originally Posted by strettyend

That bounce off the lows after the open was wild

Morning shake down, dump it before you pump it.

[7sins]

There has nothing that has fundamentally changed for many of these companies that are down 5-15%. Set aside a certain amount of cash, DCA over the next few days and take advantage of these buying opportunities. Have a set discipline and stick to it - real money is made in disruptions. This is why I always remind everyone, have hedges in place, whether it is leap puts on over-valued stocks or vix calls, it is cheap insurance and allows you take roll profits on sell off days like today into more attractively valued names that are at a discount. Rinse. Repeat.

What I think most people are forgetting, specifically media coverage, is that May 17th is Tax Day. I suspect many individuals are doing their taxes this week and selling positions to pay a projected higher tax bill than the year prior. This would explain why high flying stocks, some with relative more reasonable valuations, are seeing an accelerated sell off.

[904VT]

CPI is ugly. Biggest YOY jump since 08 and greatest MOM growth rate since early 80’s. It’s time to pay the piper so to speak, can’t endlessly print currency and expect things to stay normal.

[1665fan]

Is shiba inu coin junk or the real deal????

[7sins]

Completely overblown retail/media reaction on inflation, to make a big deal out of YoY CPI move is complete non-sense. Inflation expectations fell to .5 last year (lowest since 2008), so of course you are going to have a large move in YoY inflation when it was non existent last year but had little movement for almost 15 years. Look at the below chart of 5yr forward break even inflation post 2008, it bounced most of the time between 2 and 2.5%, with a few times slightly dropping below until covid last year when it went sub 1%. Sits today at 2.38 and as inflation rises, it will be transient. Use these opportunities to slowly put cash to work.

[Zack21]

Thanks for the helpful analysis 7sins.

[asloper6001]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Completely overblown retail/media reaction on inflation, to make a big deal out of YoY CPI move is complete non-sense. Inflation expectations fell to .5 last year (lowest since 2008), so of course you are going to have a large move in YoY inflation when it was non existent last year but had little movement for almost 15 years. Look at the below chart of 5yr forward break even inflation post 2008, it bounced most of the time between 2 and 2.5%, with a few times slightly dropping below until covid last year when it went sub 1%. Sits today at 2.38 and as inflation rises, it will be transient. Use these opportunities to slowly put cash to work.

Every quarter is a new storyline to keep retail chewing on the fundamental bait to create confusion or debates. Research like yours is how we determine their bluffs. TY sir as always!

[austinp]

Doing some buying today. Who’s with me?!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[m j b]

Thanks to BNA/LION for the HRTX recommendation. Who else got in?

Heck, it's probably not too late for the rest of you.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/369587...l-for-zynrelef

I'm a little disappointed that it hasn't popped more this morning (it was up 16% at one point) but maybe after the market opens it will do better.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Completely overblown retail/media reaction on inflation, to make a big deal out of YoY CPI move is complete non-sense. Inflation expectations fell to .5 last year (lowest since 2008), so of course you are going to have a large move in YoY inflation when it was non existent last year but had little movement for almost 15 years. Look at the below chart of 5yr forward break even inflation post 2008, it bounced most of the time between 2 and 2.5%, with a few times slightly dropping below until covid last year when it went sub 1%. Sits today at 2.38 and as inflation rises, it will be transient. Use these opportunities to slowly put cash to work.

I think your chart proves that inflation expectations were unanchored. So for inflation expectations to be so low, followed by real inflation to increase like it did, it means we don’t have a good handle on expectations. The driver could be CPI being a poor representation/basket, structural shifts in our consumption habits, and/or certain basket items out of synch. The latter think how much pricing for bread, eggs, meats have increased over the last 8 years or so, largely ignored. There hasn’t been significant real wage growth since the 90’s, so the big concern is the potential for a wage spiral now.

[logo]

Surprised to see COTY down >20% from it's highs. Definitely DCAing into 2023 calls here

[Magnum75]

Originally Posted by logo

Surprised to see COTY down >20% from it's highs. Definitely DCAing into 2023 calls here

Same here, and I'm glad I took profits in COTY last week. I know I'm not alone.

Also the IPOE warrants were just under $4 (down 14% from yesterday's close).

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Surprised to see COTY down >20% from it's highs. Definitely DCAing into 2023 calls here

Definitely leverage into the weakness! Not surprised at all given a slight miss on ER (which we would assume given global strict restrictions last Q and why I emphasized selling prior to ER) combined with a systemic sell-off this week creating the stock to disproportionately selloff to the broader market. Do not forget we had 3 price upgrades this week and Citi raised PO to $15 along with adding to their focus list - they were a bear early last year.

Also CDC news today saying all of those who are vaccinated no longer need a mask. As the economy reopens and without a mask mandate, I anticipate the demand for cosmetics is going to grow substantially, YoY growth on the next few ER calls is going to be off the charts. This bodes well for COTY as the #1 fragrance leader and #4 color cosmetics leader. Combined with Sue's transformation and expansion into Asia (28% growth last Q) this should continue to climb higher into next year.

2023 option buyers agree with us, look at the chart below, over 5 to 1 call to put ratio - very very bullish. I've been taking advantage of the Jan 2023 $10C, sold off more than the $12C and not seeing enough price sensitivity in the $7C. Will be a home run and you have 19 months for this to play out. Same goes for SABR I am pounding the table on, some great buys in the 2023 call chain.

Originally Posted by Magnum75

Same here, and I'm glad I took profits in COTY last week. I know I'm not alone.

Also the IPOE warrants were just under $4 (down 14% from yesterday's close).

Final vote for merger on IPOE to SOFI is end of this month which they will get approval for. Should be trading under the SOFI name June 1st in which will take out any uncertainty here - this was $28 earlier this year and now sub $15. We should also get news on their finalization of a bank charter soon (CEO was former GS Investment Banker, he knows how to get this done). You also have a short 30% position, mostly from the PIPE investors to box in their position, this high short position I suspect will not lead to a massive sell off post merger like we have seen with other SPACs.

If their published growth rates come to fruition, I expect this to be high 20s this year with PLENTY of good publicity from the SOFI stadium along with their new ventures getting into crypto, trading, options etc. I've been adding to jan 2023 $15 for $5 as well, a move to $30 by the end of next year represents 300% profit. Still keep some cash on the sideliens post merger in case we do see a dip then will DCA there.

[huncho]

i've spent the week adding to viacom/ipoe and dcaing back into coty (down a bit here though since i started on monday). did a little dca for some tech but trying to stay away from that for now

[wantonebad]

Even with Today's rally in spots, my alternative energy funds and ETFs are still getting crushed... my wishful thinking about where investment and technological advances would be has cost me a GREAT deal of money!!!

Leaning hard now towards getting out of this sector!!

[logo]

Originally Posted by wantonebad

Even with Today's rally in spots, my alternative energy funds and ETFs are still getting crushed... my wishful thinking about where investment and technological advances would be has cost me a GREAT deal of money!!!

Leaning hard now towards getting out of this sector!!

FWIW I am still holding GEVO. Current market cap is less than the combined value of their IP and cash position. Keep in mind most net zero targets are not until 2030 and beyond, so this is going to be a volatile sector for years to come, but no where to go but up IMO.

[wantonebad]

Originally Posted by logo

FWIW I am still holding GEVO. Current market cap is less than the combined value of their IP and cash position. Keep in mind most net zero targets are not until 2030 and beyond, so this is going to be a volatile sector for years to come, but no where to go but up IMO.

Indeed, not the place for immediate results!!

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

I wish you and Heron luck! Even with approval be careful, I'm licking wounds with AUPH from the drop in market value after their lupus drug was approved in January. SMH!

Yep, HRTX pulling an AUPH move today. Much value in these companies just need to make the manipulation work for our accounts.

Good luck to all my fellow biotech investor friends here, this sector isn't for the faint of heart.

[BNA/LION]

Originally Posted by m j b

Thanks to BNA/LION for the HRTX recommendation. Who else got in?

Heck, it's probably not too late for the rest of you.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/369587...l-for-zynrelef

I'm a little disappointed that it hasn't popped more this morning (it was up 16% at one point) but maybe after the market opens it will do better.

Well, Well... It took more time than we all would have liked to see an Approval. However, The hard part is over Zynrelef is approved in the UK, The USA and awaiting Approval in Canada! There is one major competitor (Parcira) who has over 85% of the market share for a similar after surgery opioid-free pain management alternative but is an inferior product. Over the next six months as the drug is rolled out Heron will cut into the competitor's previous hold on the market, increase their stock price and get the attention of Big Pharma companies who may want to Buy Heron and their three money making drugs to add to their portfolio of products. Things are look good for the company and Zynrelef. I'm still Long and Bullish HRTX.

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Yep, HRTX pulling an AUPH move today. Much value in these companies just need to make the manipulation work for our accounts.

Good luck to all my fellow biotech investor friends here, this sector isn't for the faint of heart.

The Short interest definitely has weighed on HRTX for several years and a few CRL's didn't help either. I'm not sure about AUPH, their drug approval or situation but I feel confident with approval of Zynrelef, the Quality of the studies, the Data and Heron's prior ability to bring two other drugs to market that they will be successful.

Good Luck Everyone!

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by BNA/LION

I'm not sure about AUPH, their drug approval or situation but I feel confident with approval of Zynrelef, the Quality of the studies, the Data and Heron's prior ability to bring two other drugs to market that they will be successful.

AUPH briefly traded above 20 (pre-market, just like HRTX today) upon approval of Lupkynis back in Jan. It's at 11 today.

Don't want to scare or draw inaccurate correlation/conclusions but these aren't the only biotechs that have had negative trading patterns recently post FDA approval. I would not be surprised to see a better entry here before the market rewards Heron's execution of rollout. Disclaimer: Cognitive bias at play as I'm looking to re-establish a position in HRTX at a lower price.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Cognitive bias at play as I'm looking to re-establish a position in HRTX at a lower price.

I'm actually quite a bit underwater at the closing price, and if I didn't already own a lot more than I should, I'd buy more to lower my cost basis.

[7sins]

LOTS of talk on the street today about Michael Burry's large TSLA short position. What many forget is he has been shorting TSLA for a long time. Look at the 13F filings below, I think what people are missing is what I highlighted in yellow. This is a massive put position in TLT and Calls in TBT. These are both bets that interest rates are going to rise in response to his forecast of rising inflation. Looking at charts I think calls in TBT offer more upside should we see a rising 10yr, looking at jan 2023 $22C with very low IV. I think this is a play while the 10yr is still low, for the short term future at least.

Once we hear the FED is going to begin tapering (IE they are reducing their $120B monthly bond purchasing) you SHOULD see a very similar reaction to the taper tantrum in 2013 where the 10yr went from 1.5% to 3% in a very short amount of time -TBT was in the 50s back in 2013. Not sure we would see it get that high BUT even if it reaches $40, a 23 $22C is $4, which would represent over 400% ROI. More importantly, for those worried about interest rates and inflation, this is a cost effective way to protect and profit from both. Hard to imagine 10yr moves much lower than 150bp short of any severe pullback. Definitely an interesting play, will look to build position this summer.


Good day for those on the IPOE train, warrants up 10% as this continues to climb into merger as I have been mentioned the last few pages. SABR back to $13.50 and AUPH pushing on $13 from the recent low of $10.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

LOTS of talk on the street today about Michael Burry's large TSLA short position. What many forget is he has been shorting TSLA for a long time. Look at the 13F filings below, I think what people are missing is what I highlighted in yellow. This is a massive put position in TLT and Calls in TBT. These are both bets that interest rates are going to rise in response to his forecast of rising inflation. Looking at charts I think calls in TBT offer more upside should we see a rising 10yr, looking at jan 2023 $22C with very low IV. I think this is a play while the 10yr is still low, for the short term future at least.

Once we hear the FED is going to begin tapering (IE they are reducing their $120B monthly bond purchasing) you SHOULD see a very similar reaction to the taper tantrum in 2013 where the 10yr went from 1.5% to 3% in a very short amount of time -TBT was in the 50s back in 2013. Not sure we would see it get that high BUT even if it reaches $40, a 23 $22C is $4, which would represent over 400% ROI. More importantly, for those worried about interest rates and inflation, this is a cost effective way to protect and profit from both. Hard to imagine 10yr moves much lower than 150bp short of any severe pullback. Definitely an interesting play, will look to build position this summer.


Good day for those on the IPOE train, warrants up 10% as this continues to climb into merger as I have been mentioned the last few pages. SABR back to $13.50 and AUPH pushing on $13 from the recent low of $10.

guessing ipoe movement will start in 2 weeks if anything, nice to see it's holding on so far despite the chaos everywhere else. also it's weird to see viacom still not seeing much movement, i believe all the selling has been completed

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

guessing ipoe movement will start in 2 weeks if anything, nice to see it's holding on so far despite the chaos everywhere else. also it's weird to see viacom still not seeing much movement, i believe all the selling has been completed

You've seen good movement this week, last 5 days IPOE is up 9% and a bit more for the warrants. Pretty good for a volatile 5 days, especially in tech. I think you will see further upside into the vote at the end of the month. From there, once it turns into SOFI early next month, you do have a much larger number of outstanding shares which could cause post merger volatility. Important to note, IPOE has the highest short position in any SPAC and that is because it allowed PIPE investors to short aka box their position, so I don't believe you will see a big sell off post merger like with other spacs. Putting aside any systemic volatility in the broad market. Plenty of great press on Galileo lately which they bought not too long ago. For me, it is a longer term hold and with the very high IV I can collect great premiums for writing covered calls.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You've seen good movement this week, last 5 days IPOE is up 9% and a bit more for the warrants. Pretty good for a volatile 5 days, especially in tech. I think you will see further upside into the vote at the end of the month. From there, once it turns into SOFI early next month, you do have a much larger number of outstanding shares which could cause post merger volatility. Important to note, IPOE has the highest short position in any SPAC and that is because it allowed PIPE investors to short aka box their position, so I don't believe you will see a big sell off post merger like with other spacs. Putting aside any systemic volatility in the broad market. Plenty of great press on Galileo lately which they bought not too long ago. For me, it is a longer term hold and with the very high IV I can collect great premiums for writing covered calls.

it's definitely been a good week for it but i just meant in relation to the last few since it's been in the same range for a few weeks. but regardless, it's a long term hold for me as well so i don't mind. it's one of my bigger holds and most long term. i'm glad that there was the opportunity to continue dca'ing into it the past few weeks. i just have to figure out what to do in the case where the warrants will be called back but there's plenty of time to let that play out anyway

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's definitely been a good week for it but i just meant in relation to the last few since it's been in the same range for a few weeks. but regardless, it's a long term hold for me as well so i don't mind. it's one of my bigger holds and most long term. i'm glad that there was the opportunity to continue dca'ing into it the past few weeks. i just have to figure out what to do in the case where the warrants will be called back but there's plenty of time to let that play out anyway

Enjoy the ride my friend, warrants up another 9% this morning after good earnings today. Posted them below for anyone who didn't see, impressive growth and plenty of catalysts in the future to keep this going (ie pending bank charter). Completely on board with you and it is a large holding for me too, when they make the warrants redeemable, I plan to convert those to shares, per the warrant they execute at $11.50/sh, then will write covered calls and take that income to roll into longer leap call options. Would be willing to bet it won't be long, probably after merger, Cathy Woods buys in her ARK complex, completely aligns with ARK fintech innovation ETF and investor flow will follow.

SoFi Announces Q1 ‘21 Record Results

- +430k members (biggest ever growth)
- 2.3M members total (+110% YoY)
- 3.2M total products used (+121% YoY)
- Galileo hits 70M accounts (+130% YoY)
- Net Revenue of
$216M
~14% beat (+151% YoY)
- EBITDA +
- Reiterates 2021 guidance