Talking Stocks 2.0

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by huncho

good point, it seems like no one likes paypal in general. i got out of my leaps a few weeks ago because i don't really see what direction they can go in the future to expand besides focusing on integrating crypto payments into their network. of course their earnings are dragging sq down which i'm still holding though

People seem to be tired of PayPal. Before the last 2 years, I used PayPal for pretty much everything outside of Amazon & big purchases : selling & buying. I was sorta forced to stop using them.

As a buyer, eBay and online retailers starting accepting ApplePay so we have that in addition to typical credit cards systems. Most people would rather deal w/ a credit card than PayPal support when purchases go wrong / refunds needed.

PayPal PoS systems never caught on. I still have a $60 card & wireless phone reader in the box. Every mom & pop retailer use Shopify or Square I know. Same when I go to major sporting events w/ contact free systems.

PayPal never even caught on like Affirm at sites I used when 0% is offered. E.g. some watch purchases.

With mobile devices doing a great job at storing payment info, my card info is auto entered for many purchases. PayPal no longer needed.

My only consistent PayPay use is getting paid by ticket sites or Venmo for paying the kids’ tutors. PayPal earns $0 on all those transactions.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

People seem to be tired of PayPal. Before the last 2 years, I used PayPal for pretty much everything outside of Amazon & big purchases : selling & buying. I was sorta forced to stop using them.

As a buyer, eBay and online retailers starting accepting ApplePay so we have that in addition to typical credit cards systems. Most people would rather deal w/ a credit card than PayPal support when purchases go wrong / refunds needed.

PayPal PoS systems never caught on. I still have a $60 card & wireless phone reader in the box. Every mom & pop retailer use Shopify or Square I know. Same when I go to major sporting events w/ contact free systems.

PayPal never even caught on like Affirm at sites I used when 0% is offered. E.g. some watch purchases.

With mobile devices doing a great job at storing payment info, my card info is auto entered for many purchases. PayPal no longer needed.

My only consistent PayPay use is getting paid by ticket sites or Venmo for paying the kids’ tutors. PayPal earns $0 on all those transactions.

yeah i agree, if you compare it to apple pay it just has zero advantages. i've also heard too many horror stories about dealing with paypal support over ebay transactions so that also pushes people away to any other possible option. i think sq has a much better business model, although it's overvalued as hell, but you can see they have a vision and are constantly expanding (getting a bank charter for one)

the main reason i got into paypal back in march was because they were the first of the fintech companies to get into crypto transactions and i do feel like that's the future for that sector which is why visa is very heavily focusing on that now. they really kicked off the 2020-21 crypto run by taking it mainstream so i'm glad for that but otherwise it feels like they haven't adapted as much as they should have

[scarlet knight]

I’ve owned PYPL. SQ , FISV and DFS for awhile. Some of these fintechs are going to take share from banks. New apps to come.

[logo]

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...r-Results.html

Getting ready for the sonic boom explosion from COTY. L’Oreal posted big numbers for the first half of 2021, including “a sharp rise in fragrance sales and significantly outperformed the market.” L’Oreal and Estée Lauder have been on nice runs the past few weeks while COTY has remained flat. I think there’s a decent chance this Q earnings could take some by surprise and if guidance is decent, we could explode upward.

[logo]

Ugly AH for AMZN and PINS, pulling nasdaq down tomorrow. Seeing sympathy reactions from several other stocks afterhours.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Ugly AH for AMZN and PINS, pulling nasdaq down tomorrow. Seeing sympathy reactions from several other stocks afterhours.

basically brought down every other tech stock with it but i never put too much into AH movement. hoping they gap up at open and we move on but i still wonder what could possibly push us past 15k

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by logo

Ugly AH for AMZN and PINS, pulling nasdaq down tomorrow. Seeing sympathy reactions from several other stocks afterhours.

Yeah, AMZN’s after hours brutalized my portfolio. I did trim that position 50% today for a profit and will rebuy.

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

basically brought down every other tech stock with it but i never put too much into AH movement. hoping they gap up at open and we move on but i still wonder what could possibly push us past 15k

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Yeah, AMZN’s after hours brutalized my portfolio. I did trim that position 50% today for a profit and will rebuy.

Interesting earnings for AMZN. High profits, but slowing e-commerce sales, likely in part to things reopening and people going out and about. PINS also losing users, that’s a huge issue (and reminds me of why FSLY got destroyed a few months ago).

I have to admit, seeing these big reactions up front had me worrying about my NET position with earnings around the corner and the near 100% run up over the last 3 months. However, despite the overall picture for AMZN, they also posted large growth to AWS revenues, and the same is true for MSFT Azure and Google Cloud, both beating estimates and posting strong growth. Along with cybersecurity becoming even more pressing and NET recently securing FedRAMP approval, I’m still very comfortable headed into earnings at current levels. Currently holding shares and deep ITM calls for Jan 2022 expiry that I’ll likely convert to more shares at that time. As long as cloudflare keeps growing it’s customer and product base, I’m happy to buy any dip.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-r...r-Results.html

Getting ready for the sonic boom explosion from COTY. L’Oreal posted big numbers for the first half of 2021, including “a sharp rise in fragrance sales and significantly outperformed the market.” L’Oreal and Estée Lauder have been on nice runs the past few weeks while COTY has remained flat. I think there’s a decent chance this Q earnings could take some by surprise and if guidance is decent, we could explode upward.

It has been holding up well this week, struggling to get past $9 but seeing a bit of IV expansion on the options which have been rock solid amongst sp vol. Definitely not seeing the same market participation as L'Oreal (they actually returned to pre-covid growth 1H this year) and Estee Lauder but they are also much larger companies I believe with a different geographical sales mix. I think COTY will see significant growth in their Asia sales.My girlfriend watched the new re-branded Kylie launch earlier this month, she noted the majority of the website was sold out same day, especially a lot of the legacy colors - she also noted improved packaging, better formulas that are "clean, vegan and cruetly-free".

I suspect we beat top and bottom on this next ER. My bigger concern is going to be guidance, on one hand you have some European easing borders and social restrictions and other European countries posing more mask mandates and general restrictions. Future uncertainty amongst already nervous investors could be a cause for a concern. ER is still a month away, waiting for it to break $9 then I am going to roll the rest of my 2022 calls to 2023 prior to ER. Still believe this is a great play, should see $10 this year and easily above that by next year, keep as a core position in my portfolio.

Take a peak at $UP Feb 2022 $5C, trading $2.75, so a bit ITM with b/e at essentially sp, I would suspect we are back to $10 before then with a bit of good news. Nice delta +0.87 on the option, offers more upside than the underlying stock and being farther ITM offers a bit more downside vol protection, I'm averaging down here. Someone is keeping this down with short float at 55% which is absurd. With the two recent analyst initiations, this is a great short read that takes their comments and highlights pros/cons of their reports: https://privatejetcardcomparisons.co...-on-wheels-up/

Below snip comes from a different article but I have several friends who work in private aviation and confirm below, private jet demand has never been higher. They noted summer demand was even higher, especially the last few weeks with Delta scare. Just my .02 for anyone riding the train.

[wantonebad]

Anyone jumping on Amazon today?

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by m j b

I'm actually quite a bit underwater at the closing price, and if I didn't already own a lot more than I should, I'd buy more to lower my cost basis.

I'm in, starting to look really good here imo. Are you averaging down? Other thoughts?

[huncho]

my portfolio balance this past month is like a seesaw lol. would like 1 week where we just have minimal stress

[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by wantonebad

Anyone jumping on Amazon today?

I would like to know as well. I got out of it a while back at 3000 and wanted back in but never got a shot. Now it's halfway back there and although I'd like back in, the PE is 63. Is it justifiable?

Such a crazy huge company. What can they do to keep growing.

Anyone staying long? To me that would be a good sign.

[jaisonline]

Square, Inc. (NYSE: SQ) has posted its results for the second quarter of 2021 on the Financials section of its Investor Relations website at investors.squareup.com and intends to file these results with the Securities and Exchange Commission on the morning of Monday, August 2.

They also want to buy AfterPay. https://squareup.com/us/en/press/squ...quire-afterpay


Square has cancelled its conference call and earnings webcast scheduled for Thursday, August 5 and will instead discuss these financial results at 5:00 a.m. Pacific time/8:00 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow, August 2. To register to participate in the conference call, or to listen to the live audio webcast, please visit the Events & Presentations section of Square's Investor Relations website at investors.squareup.com. A replay will be available on the same website following the call.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Square, Inc. (NYSE: SQ) has posted its results for the second quarter of 2021 on the Financials section of its Investor Relations website at investors.squareup.com and intends to file these results with the Securities and Exchange Commission on the morning of Monday, August 2.

They also want to buy AfterPay. https://squareup.com/us/en/press/squ...quire-afterpay


Square has cancelled its conference call and earnings webcast scheduled for Thursday, August 5 and will instead discuss these financial results at 5:00 a.m. Pacific time/8:00 a.m. Eastern time tomorrow, August 2. To register to participate in the conference call, or to listen to the live audio webcast, please visit the Events & Presentations section of Square's Investor Relations website at investors.squareup.com. A replay will be available on the same website following the call.

29b stock deal... don't see that sitting well tomorrow

[huncho]

sq was at 235 (-12) pre market and opens and goes to 260. have no idea how this stock functions anymore

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

sq was at 235 (-12) pre market and opens and goes to 260. have no idea how this stock functions anymore

Surprised SOFI isn’t running today. If the market is ok with Afterpay at 29B, based on revenues, cash, and customer base there’s just no way SOFI should be at 12B. Different business, but should have a roughly similar valuation multiple and currently it’s nowhere close.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Surprised SOFI isn’t running today. If the market is ok with Afterpay at 29B, based on revenues, cash, and customer base there’s just no way SOFI should be at 12B. Different business, but should have a roughly similar valuation multiple and currently it’s nowhere close.

yeah it's all very weird. even affirm is at 17b but has higher revenue although a bit lower profits. a big part of afterpay's value is their huge yoy growth but it's not possible to continue growing 100% every year. i wasn't expecting this kind of swing at all, 235 premarket to 275 at 11am. i got out of all my sq positions earlier though at around 265 and might re enter once things cool down, also not feeling too comfortable with nasdaq levels

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by huncho

sq was at 235 (-12) pre market and opens and goes to 260. have no idea how this stock functions anymore

Same though here.

Also agree with Logo about $sofi

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Surprised SOFI isn’t running today. If the market is ok with Afterpay at 29B, based on revenues, cash, and customer base there’s just no way SOFI should be at 12B. Different business, but should have a roughly similar valuation multiple and currently it’s nowhere close.

Would look at $Hood as a somewhat similar comp, they generate the approx same amount of revenue, Robinhood’s is more derived from option trading but users are fleeting the platform. Sofi is releasing their option trading platform soon with their existing crypto and stock platform. Sofi also had an upcoming bank catalyst for their bank charter. Yet Robinhood is 2x the market cap at $32B. Which one would conclude that buying puts on Robinhood isn’t a terrible idea. Regardless you can see SoFi is much more attractively valued, as I said a few pages back we just need to get through this share unlock.

[logo]

Anyone catch the SABR call this morning? Saw they beat EPS and revenue and were up 5% per-market, now obviously not so much lol. I imagine the call had something to do with that? Anyone adding here or waiting to let things settle?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Anyone catch the SABR call this morning? Saw they beat EPS and revenue and were up 5% per-market, now obviously not so much lol. I imagine the call had something to do with that? Anyone adding here or waiting to let things settle?

added a bit because these recovery stocks are a bit scary to touch right now. trying to be patient with coty in the case that they do the same post ER...

also added to viacom. down -2.6 on no news as far as i can see, besides announcing a new deal with cox. earnings on thursday though so holding off on doing too much there although i really don't know how it could possibly go any lower

[huncho]

anyone been adding to sofi at these prices? i started buying some shares while leap IVs are still high. their earnings are next week and i really don't like doing much of anything pre earnings due to how much of a dice roll it is nowadays but then again maybe that can be the catalyst for a nice run. ideally i would like to exercise my warrants but price has to be > 17 for that to be worth it by the time that's allowed

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

anyone been adding to sofi at these prices? i started buying some shares while leap IVs are still high. their earnings are next week and i really don't like doing much of anything pre earnings due to how much of a dice roll it is nowadays but then again maybe that can be the catalyst for a nice run. ideally i would like to exercise my warrants but price has to be > 17 for that to be worth it by the time that's allowed

I bought some more in the low 15s. Average is a little over 16 now, and not worried about it.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Anyone catch the SABR call this morning? Saw they beat EPS and revenue and were up 5% per-market, now obviously not so much lol. I imagine the call had something to do with that? Anyone adding here or waiting to let things settle?

I was on it, I will post a few slides from the call later today. They beat top and bottom by over 10% with moving much better towards profitability, finally in an upswing. Honestly was a great ER, couldn't ask for much more.

Selling off because they offered no guidance, as to be expected with a conservative management. That and the continued uncertainty around delta are beating this down, yet travel/TSA numbers are up significantly. I was in two different terminals of LAX this morning for a flight to Greece at 5AM and they were PACKED. Adding each day this week in the 2023 chain as long as it is below $11, no hesitation.

[vipereaper30]

BCRX and AUPH both with ER on Thursday. I'm not gonna be able to sleep with my current positions in these two.

Good luck all!

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

also added to viacom. down -2.6 on no news as far as i can see, besides announcing a new deal with cox. earnings on thursday though so holding off on doing too much there although i really don't know how it could possibly go any lower

Getting crushed on both DISCA and VIAC despite decent numbers from DISCA. DISCA streaming subscriber growth showed 400K below estimate. Imagine street wanted at least a mil over estimate.

The Cox deal is a “continuation” contract with VIAC I believe. Someone dumped a lot of shares at the open. Last 10 days avg vol is 7-8mil shares. Over 26 mil traded so far today. Starting to think either this is a summer craziness/lull which will pick up in Sept or total value trap.

Media companies need to show a successful monetizing streaming model soon as total viewership declines. Perhaps free ad supported streaming service like Pluto need to require login profiles building user preference databases to sell higher priced but more focused 15 and 30s?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Getting crushed on both DISCA and VIAC despite decent numbers from DISCA. DISCA streaming subscriber growth showed 400K below estimate. Imagine street wanted at least a mil over estimate.

The Cox deal is a “continuation” contract with VIAC I believe. Someone dumped a lot of shares at the open. Last 10 days avg vol is 7-8mil shares. Over 26 mil traded so far today. Starting to think either this is a summer craziness/lull which will pick up in Sept or total value trap.

Media companies need to show a successful monetizing streaming model soon as total viewership declines. Perhaps free ad supported streaming service like Pluto need to require login profiles building user preference databases to sell higher priced but more focused 15 and 30s?

it's weird to me that they're getting grouped with disca because i wouldn't even consider disca a direct competitor since it's a much more niche platform content wise whereas viac has probably the biggest content library outside of mgm and nfl/soccer/etc. i was reading that viacom is also expected to miss on earnings a bit so that's why i'm not jumping in too hard into this dip but like you said i think this summer or maybe even quarter will be flat. for now i have no doubt that the stock will be in the 50-60 range but i can't lie it's definitely strange that it's so flat so far because all signs point towards it being undervalued. as far as streaming models, i don't even know where companies should go there. the sector is becoming very overcrowded and they're now all fighting over sports rights because that's the only actual incentive to maintain a subscription instead of bouncing around between them. netflix is struggling with their user base and their content is becoming very lackluster and they have no sports so it will be interesting to see where this goes. i think the gap between netflix and the others is getting much smaller

[7sins]

As I mentioned earlier, here are the most pertinent slides from the SABR call this morning. You can see a massive dislocation between the results and the market over-reacting from no guidance. The 2023 $10 and $12 I think are the best buys and what I am loading into. I've averaged down a lot here, stock is down 5% YTD from delta fears but look at their growth, cost reductions, extending debt, huge increase in revenue etc etc. As long as we don't go back to shutdowns, which I don't think we will and this delta variant finally subsides this is going back to $15 without question next year if not sooner, IMO. I expect more volatility until delta cases subside but looking at tsa travel numbers, they look strong and this is disproportionately taking a beating. Just my .02, do your own DD but read through the transcript, this is moving in the right direction and there are very few travel recovery stocks at this much of a discount. Look at price in Q1, almost 30% higher and yet company is in much better shape today than then. Patience will be rewarded here.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's weird to me that they're getting grouped with disca because i wouldn't even consider disca a direct competitor since it's a much more niche platform content wise whereas viac has probably the biggest content library outside of mgm and nfl/soccer/etc. i was reading that viacom is also expected to miss on earnings a bit so that's why i'm not jumping in too hard into this dip but like you said i think this summer or maybe even quarter will be flat. for now i have no doubt that the stock will be in the 50-60 range but i can't lie it's definitely strange that it's so flat so far because all signs point towards it being undervalued. as far as streaming models, i don't even know where companies should go there. the sector is becoming very overcrowded and they're now all fighting over sports rights because that's the only actual incentive to maintain a subscription instead of bouncing around between them. netflix is struggling with their user base and their content is becoming very lackluster and they have no sports so it will be interesting to see where this goes. i think the gap between netflix and the others is getting much smaller

Here is what I found yesterday. DISCA and Paramount+ are the two taking NFLX mkt share.

Streaming sub growth should be similar between DISA and VIAC.