Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

@7sins bbig with some movement. announced 80% interest in Lomotif, weren't the rumors expecting it to be much smaller? also saw they're getting involved in NFTs which are going absolutely crazy right now

Vinco Ventures and ZASH Global Media and Entertainment through their Joint Venture, ZVV Media Partners, LLC completes acquisition of eighty percent (80%) interest in Lomotif.

Lomotif has achieved a record number of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) with over 30 million MAUs according to Data Analysis Firm Sensor Tower

[7sins]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I kinda guessed you probably avg’d down today in HZAC Warrants. Ha.

I’ve selling on the Vivid SkyBox platform for about a month now. Will post my thoughts on selling experience when more time is available (at my son’s soccer practice). In a nutshell, they must change many things to chip away at Stubhub and Ticketmaster’s market share especially for non-broker revenue.

Regardless, adding HZAC Warrants at this price is very attractive despite the website’s issue trying to list tickets. Speculation alone will drive up the stock before investors realize it has a very small choice at taking away Stubhub and TicketMaster market share unless they get contracts w/ MLB, NFL, etc…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Haha guess I am pretty predictable but I always always average down on conviction. Bought more today @ 1.47, there just isn't much volume. Aiming for 30,000 warrants pre-merger and then will buy leaps when SEAT becomes active.

Would love to hear your feedback as a seller. From my reading they have updated their platform and also their loyalty program. Their CEO had a great interview the other day I watched https://cheddar.com/media/vivid-seat...es-q2-earnings.

I've read through the S4, filed on 8/16, looking for merger to complete by end of quarter or next quarter. Then will be interesting to see what happens most spac merger, i'm setting aside cash for options should it dip post merger but IMO these warrants sub $1.50 are quite attractive, I doubt not much movement until merger.

Originally Posted by huncho

@7sins bbig with some movement. announced 80% interest in Lomotif, weren't the rumors expecting it to be much smaller? also saw they're getting involved in NFTs which are going absolutely crazy right now

Vinco Ventures and ZASH Global Media and Entertainment through their Joint Venture, ZVV Media Partners, LLC completes acquisition of eighty percent (80%) interest in Lomotif.

Lomotif has achieved a record number of Monthly Active Users (MAUs) with over 30 million MAUs according to Data Analysis Firm Sensor Tower

Yes indeed, one could say it was a "bbig" day, up 20% on strong volume and I am finally back in the green. Averaged down a bit in the mid 2s but missed the bottom unfortunately. The other thing to note from their ER is they have over $80M in cash which I hope means no future dilution. Proxy vote is tomorrow but I don't believe the actual merger is until end of next month. Note it is a $5B "valuation" which was from a third party and they are now just generating revenue from the platform. Definitely an interesting play, launching in India shortly where TikTok is banned then the US plus it will be the only US listed short video messaging tech. Figured it was worth a calculated risk and see how the reverse merger pans out, $5 should be pretty realistic IMO. There was a great video on benzinga powerhour with CEO that I recommend watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eiGsJgpmNg at 19 min mark I believe.

For those on the SABR train, nice PR today with a big manager increasing exposure: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-chinese-tech. Great 13% two day run, averaging down in the 9s I mentioned on Friday are helping balance some of the losses further OTM options.

Hope the rest of the week goes like this, cheers everyone and hopefully some good green in your portfolios this week

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Yes indeed, one could say it was a "bbig" day, up 20% on strong volume and I am finally back in the green. Averaged down a bit in the mid 2s but missed the bottom unfortunately. The other thing to note from their ER is they have over $80M in cash which I hope means no future dilution. Proxy vote is tomorrow but I don't believe the actual merger is until end of next month. Note it is a $5B "valuation" which was from a third party and they are now just generating revenue from the platform. Definitely an interesting play, launching in India shortly where TikTok is banned then the US plus it will be the only US listed short video messaging tech. Figured it was worth a calculated risk and see how the reverse merger pans out, $5 should be pretty realistic IMO. There was a great video on benzinga powerhour with CEO that I recommend watching: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_eiGsJgpmNg at 19 min mark I believe.

For those on the SABR train, nice PR today with a big manager increasing exposure: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...s-chinese-tech. Great 13% two day run, averaging down in the 9s I mentioned on Friday are helping balance some of the losses further OTM options.

Hope the rest of the week goes like this, cheers everyone and hopefully some good green in your portfolios this week

$5 would be nice. i'm still a bit in the red, should be green at around 3.5. been a good week so far though, finally some breathing room from baba's never ending red

[denmanproject]

UCTT is worth a look at these levels IMO, starting a position this week

@7sins curious if this one is on your radar?

[logo]

$UP is down, again lol. Lockup expiry today, so huge volume sell down.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/...is-down-today/

I’m really surprised by the price action on this the past few weeks to be honest. I have a relatively full position of shares averaged around $9.25 and spare cash is now all tied up in other holdings that I’m not quite ready to sell, but will be looking to average down here possibly with Leaps at some point as I imagine this price situation won’t change much until after next quarter.

[7sins]

@Logo What are you doing with $UP today? Looks like per S1 institutional shareholders are allowed to sell starting today creating downward pressure but down 13% seems like an over-reaction, especially given their last ER and revenue. I added to my feb $5C (no leaps avail) this AM and sneaked in at 2.50 but looking for a base to form.

Originally Posted by denmanproject

UCTT is worth a look at these levels IMO, starting a position this week

@7sins curious if this one is on your radar?

Would love to hear your thoughts and thesis behind the trade? I've researched the company in the past when I was looking for a semi equipment provider to pair with NVDA and TSM but ended up allocating to AMAT instead but have since exited the trade. I remember UCTT had strong financials just not much volume and a sparse option chain. Any idea what caused this dip to the low 40s?

Another killer day today, AUPH up ANOTHER 6% blasting past $16. BBIG another 10% and SABR another 2.5% blowing past resistance at $11, nice to see some strong momentum there. Coty ER is before bell tomorrow AM, I took a look at the option chain today, option market is pricing in a +- 9.4% move tomorrow - going to be a ride, might write a covered call and use that premium for an OTM put to hedge long position in case we get bad/no guidance.

Great quick read as wall st analysts raise sp500 targets for this year, creeping on 4,500 today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-...090514353.html

[logo]

ULTA blowout. See y’all tomorrow with COTY following suit (and hopefully also giving good guidance), looking to see us get to the $12+ range

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

@Logo What are you doing with $UP today? Looks like per S1 institutional shareholders are allowed to sell starting today creating downward pressure but down 13% seems like an over-reaction, especially given their last ER and revenue. I added to my feb $5C (no leaps avail) this AM and sneaked in at 2.50 but looking for a base to form.



Would love to hear your thoughts and thesis behind the trade? I've researched the company in the past when I was looking for a semi equipment provider to pair with NVDA and TSM but ended up allocating to AMAT instead but have since exited the trade. I remember UCTT had strong financials just not much volume and a sparse option chain. Any idea what caused this dip to the low 40s?

Another killer day today, AUPH up ANOTHER 6% blasting past $16. BBIG another 10% and SABR another 2.5% blowing past resistance at $11, nice to see some strong momentum there. Coty ER is before bell tomorrow AM, I took a look at the option chain today, option market is pricing in a +- 9.4% move tomorrow - going to be a ride, might write a covered call and use that premium for an OTM put to hedge long position in case we get bad/no guidance.

Great quick read as wall st analysts raise sp500 targets for this year, creeping on 4,500 today: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-...090514353.html

i believe bbig's conference call is in 30 mins, could still kick off some movement as well

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

i believe bbig's conference call is in 30 mins, could still kick off some movement as well

Was on it, short call, just announcing official proxy vote is 9/14, will be a lot of chop until then.

Originally Posted by logo

ULTA blowout. See y’all tomorrow with COTY following suit (and hopefully also giving good guidance), looking to see us get to the $12+ range

Not only did ULTA blowout top and bottom estimates, comp sales increased by 56%, gross profit by 40.6% and most importantly raised outlook above consensus for FY guidance. CEO noted "This performance reflects the recovery of the beauty category". Aligns with ELF, EL etc etc. Should be an interesting morning.

[huncho]

great earnings from coty. we finally have some movement and hopefully it can keep going past last quarters ath

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by huncho

great earnings from coty. we finally have some movement and hopefully it can keep going past last quarters ath

Indeed. My Jan 20, 2023 $12 Cs are up nicely today

[logo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Indeed. My Jan 20, 2023 $12 Cs are up nicely today

My feeling is these are not even thawed out yet, let alone warming up. Still a nice runway here for us over the next 16 months and a lot of transformation happening at COTY. I anticipate price upgrades soon.

[7sins]

This is THE moment we all have been waiting for. I've been pounding the table on COTY almost every page for months now like a broken record, hope everyone averaged down with me for some BIG gains. This is exactly why I re-iterate all the time on the importance of building a position and averaging down.

Some highlights from the call this morning, I should note at the end, analysts questions were very detail orientated and numerous, usually not the case - I suspect we see some price upgrades soon.

Coty Inc

Reported fourth-quarter FY21 revenue growth of 89.6% year-on-year, to $1.06 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.02 billion.

Sales in the Americas region grew 68.9% Y/Y, Asia Pacific increased 70% in Q4, and EMEA sales surged 123.4%. I've been saying for MONTHS on here to focus on their asia and e-commerce growth, absolutely blew it out of the water.

E-commerce sales climbed nearly 19%, resulting in a high-teens e-commerce penetration for the year.

The gross margin for the quarter expanded 2040 basis points to 60.4%.

Adjusted EBITDA was $127.3 million versus $(246.6) million last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 12%.

(I think this is VERY interesting) Coty confirms that it is pursuing a partial IPO of its Brazil business.
Outlook: Coty expects 1Q22 LFL sales growth in the high teens percentage.

Almost 14M vol in first 30 minutes of trading, that is VERY VERY strong, should setup well for us to form a base around 9.50 today. Suspect plenty of vol from 9.50- $10 where you will see more sellers come in the market hence why we hit 9.95 and pulled back this AM. Setting up very well for 2022.

Cheers everyone to making some great coin on this trade.

Very encouraging outlook from Sue: "The combination of this market backdrop and Coty's strong launch calendar are fueling strong sales momentum in 1Q22, with very strong double digit growth in July and August to date. As a result, Coty expects 1Q22 LFL sales growth in the high teens percentage”

PS nice quick rebound in $UP today, moving 6% from being oversold yesterday, feel great picking up those $5C yest.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

This is THE moment we all have been waiting for. I've been pounding the table on COTY almost every page for months now like a broken record, hope everyone averaged down with me for some BIG gains. This is exactly why I re-iterate all the time on the importance of building a position and averaging down.

Some highlights from the call this morning, I should note at the end, analysts questions were very detail orientated and numerous, usually not the case - I suspect we see some price upgrades soon.

Coty Inc

Reported fourth-quarter FY21 revenue growth of 89.6% year-on-year, to $1.06 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.02 billion.

Sales in the Americas region grew 68.9% Y/Y, Asia Pacific increased 70% in Q4, and EMEA sales surged 123.4%. I've been saying for MONTHS on here to focus on their asia and e-commerce growth, absolutely blew it out of the water.

E-commerce sales climbed nearly 19%, resulting in a high-teens e-commerce penetration for the year.

The gross margin for the quarter expanded 2040 basis points to 60.4%.

Adjusted EBITDA was $127.3 million versus $(246.6) million last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 12%.

(I think this is VERY interesting) Coty confirms that it is pursuing a partial IPO of its Brazil business.
Outlook: Coty expects 1Q22 LFL sales growth in the high teens percentage.

Almost 14M vol in first 30 minutes of trading, that is VERY VERY strong, should setup well for us to form a base around 9.50 today. Suspect plenty of vol from 9.50- $10 where you will see more sellers come in the market hence why we hit 9.95 and pulled back this AM. Setting up very well for 2022.

Cheers everyone to making some great coin on this trade.

Very encouraging outlook from Sue: "The combination of this market backdrop and Coty's strong launch calendar are fueling strong sales momentum in 1Q22, with very strong double digit growth in July and August to date. As a result, Coty expects 1Q22 LFL sales growth in the high teens percentage”

Awesome day indeed! Are you still holding your Jan2022 calls or do you only have 2023 calls?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Awesome day indeed! Are you still holding your Jan2022 calls or do you only have 2023 calls?

These are my remaining consolidated positions, keeping my 2023 LEAPS, going to see where we shake out the next week or two on my 2022 LEAPS, 149 days to expiration but theta/time decay will start kicking in soon here. Want to see more IV expansion, need the market to cooperate but I am hoping now COTY can align with competitors P/S...this is absurd how inexpensive COTY is relative:

ELF price to sales 8.1
EL price to sales 8.05
LRCLF price to sales 7.4
COTY price to sales 1.6

I don't think $10 is that unrealistic, especially coming into holiday season, I will happily watch all the gucci makeup vidoes my GF wants me to now.

[hkuo]

I still have half of my remaining Jan2022 $8C and was worried about theta decay as well. That and future lockdowns or covid resurgences have me tempted on just cashing out of my last 2022 calls.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by hkuo

I still have half of my remaining Jan2022 $8C and was worried about theta decay as well. That and future lockdowns or covid resurgences have me tempted on just cashing out of my last 2022 calls.

Agreed, I am not sure the global economy can sustain another global lockdown but understand the apprehension. You can trim your existing position, wait for an inevitable pullback then roll into 2023 calls. Or exit now and use the cash on the sidelines when a better entry point exists.

[hkuo]

Yeah, I’ll cash out on it and keep that money on the side for future dips on my 2023 calls. I might use it to avg down on my SABR calls. Thanks for all your help!

[bluetrain]

pancreatic cancer is as you may or may not know really bad because when detected, its pretty much game over as it is usually discovered in the later stages and almost nobody make it.

As the first company in the world, Immunovia, has researched and developed a blood test that may detect if a person is likely to develop pancreatic cancer. For example if you have a family history of this cancer, you are probably interested in this test.

It was just released to market and are available in some states, payed as out of pocket, but I think the market potential is huge and they have no competitors and will not have for at least years to come. I think it is an attractive business case.

Im not sure its listed in the US but you will at least find it at the Stockholm Exchange, OMX.

Even more important than money, think of all the lives that can be saved. Its a gamechanger and hopefully it will make it possible to put in treatments early and dramatically decrease the mortality rate of this nasty cancer form.

https://immunoviainc.com/

[7sins]

Last post today from me for those on the AUPH train with me, bizarre PR day. Positive another 9%, 38% move in 5 days. Morning started with this PR https://www.marketwatch.com/press-re...ant-2021-08-26, stating BO at $35. Then AUPH denying it shortly thereafter. Either a leak which would make sense given the quote from the CEO or false PR, the latter I don't see someone releasing given the serious legal issues that would raise. Either way what a wild day, hope some of you are celebrating tonight.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Either way what a wild day, hope some of you are celebrating tonight.

Kind of bittersweet here as I sold calls on about half of my position yesterday. Where did you see the company retraction?

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Kind of bittersweet here as I sold calls on about half of my position yesterday. Where did you see the company retraction?

Originally Posted by 7sins

Last post today from me for those on the AUPH train with me, bizarre PR day. Positive another 9%, 38% move in 5 days. Morning started with this PR https://www.marketwatch.com/press-re...ant-2021-08-26, stating BO at $35. Then AUPH denying it shortly thereafter. Either a leak which would make sense given the quote from the CEO or false PR, the latter I don't see someone releasing given the serious legal issues that would raise. Either way what a wild day, hope some of you are celebrating tonight.

I bought in at $12 and sold $15 1/2. Did not buy back last week at $13. Greedy and wanted $12 instead of buying $13 and sell puts if it got lower. Bought in early today and wow what a ride. Will average down if it drops and also sell puts. No selling CCs on this one I think

[7sins]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Kind of bittersweet here as I sold calls on about half of my position yesterday. Where did you see the company retraction?

https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/21/08/2...a-m-edt-thursd

Not sure what to think, if they were in talks, AUPH would have to deny it until BO was finalized. Or is it a move to have competitors go into a bidding war. There has to be some underlying reason why this was released and why quote the CEO unless this was accidentally released ahead of time? Seems a little suspicious to me to have a leak of this magnitude. I was shooting for $25 as realistic, $35 seems like a bit of a stretch.

Originally Posted by chsu74

I bought in at $12 and sold $15 1/2. Did not buy back last week at $13. Greedy and wanted $12 instead of buying $13 and sell puts if it got lower. Bought in early today and wow what a ride. Will average down if it drops and also sell puts. No selling CCs on this one I think

Could do a CC then use the premium to buy an OTM call. That gives you some protection and profit should a BO occur.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Not sure what to think, if they were in talks, AUPH would have to deny it until BO was finalized. Or is it a move to have competitors go into a bidding war. There has to be some underlying reason why this was released and why quote the CEO unless this was accidentally released ahead of time? Seems a little suspicious to me to have a leak of this magnitude.

Thank you for the Bezinga link. TBH the Marketwatch article did not read like a legitimate press release. But the market action over the last few days even preceeding that article looked like something is up. Either fraudulent (not sure how article is still up...) or massive mistake on someone's part.

Here's to an 18.99 close at Sep expiry and then to the moon!

[vipereaper30]

"The MarketWatch News Department was not involved in the creation of this content."

Disclaimer at top and bottom of the AUPH "PR" on Marketwatch.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Could do a CC then use the premium to buy an OTM call. That gives you some protection and profit should a BO occur.

True. I have been doing that with VIAC. Using premium income from selling aggressive CCs and OTM puts to fund Jan ‘23 $45C leaps as my hedge. Booking about 1% a week and will take about 8-10 weeks to cover all my long positions.

[denmanproject]

Originally Posted by 7sins

This is THE moment we all have been waiting for. I've been pounding the table on COTY almost every page for months now like a broken record, hope everyone averaged down with me for some BIG gains. This is exactly why I re-iterate all the time on the importance of building a position and averaging down.

Some highlights from the call this morning, I should note at the end, analysts questions were very detail orientated and numerous, usually not the case - I suspect we see some price upgrades soon.

Coty Inc

Reported fourth-quarter FY21 revenue growth of 89.6% year-on-year, to $1.06 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $1.02 billion.

Sales in the Americas region grew 68.9% Y/Y, Asia Pacific increased 70% in Q4, and EMEA sales surged 123.4%. I've been saying for MONTHS on here to focus on their asia and e-commerce growth, absolutely blew it out of the water.

E-commerce sales climbed nearly 19%, resulting in a high-teens e-commerce penetration for the year.

The gross margin for the quarter expanded 2040 basis points to 60.4%.

Adjusted EBITDA was $127.3 million versus $(246.6) million last year. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 12%.

(I think this is VERY interesting) Coty confirms that it is pursuing a partial IPO of its Brazil business.
Outlook: Coty expects 1Q22 LFL sales growth in the high teens percentage.

Almost 14M vol in first 30 minutes of trading, that is VERY VERY strong, should setup well for us to form a base around 9.50 today. Suspect plenty of vol from 9.50- $10 where you will see more sellers come in the market hence why we hit 9.95 and pulled back this AM. Setting up very well for 2022.

Cheers everyone to making some great coin on this trade.

Very encouraging outlook from Sue: "The combination of this market backdrop and Coty's strong launch calendar are fueling strong sales momentum in 1Q22, with very strong double digit growth in July and August to date. As a result, Coty expects 1Q22 LFL sales growth in the high teens percentage”

PS nice quick rebound in $UP today, moving 6% from being oversold yesterday, feel great picking up those $5C yest.

Great call

[huncho]

BBIG launched lol. spreads can't even keep up or adjust

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

BBIG launched lol. spreads can't even keep up or adjust

We've got a runner! 33% stock price move today and the proxy vote hasn't even hit yet, 62% 5 day move, options 100-200%+. 25m vol move in 30 minutes this AM. What a week for my options, going to be one hell of a tequila celebration this weekend. SABR another 4.5% bounce, AUPH 3%. I will look to trim some exposure on this strength.

Great commentary from the FED today and will continue to support growth in the market. When they do begin to taper, expect them to slow down the purchase of the agency bonds (residential), which IMO, they should have done a LONG time ago given the boom we see in residential home prices. Given the excessive liquidity in the system, pension fund demand, foreign demand I suspect slowly easing their $120B monthly purchase will have a limited impact on the broad fixed income market - certainly not what we saw in 2013.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

We've got a runner! 33% stock price move today and the proxy vote hasn't even hit yet, 62% 5 day move, options 100-200%+. 25m vol move in 30 minutes this AM. What a week for my options, going to be one hell of a tequila celebration this weekend. SABR another 4.5% bounce, AUPH 3%. I will look to trim some exposure on this strength.

Great commentary from the FED today and will continue to support growth in the market. When they do begin to taper, expect them to slow down the purchase of the agency bonds (residential), which IMO, they should have done a LONG time ago given the boom we see in residential home prices. Given the excessive liquidity in the system, pension fund demand, foreign demand I suspect slowly easing their $120B monthly purchase will have a limited impact on the broad fixed income market - certainly not what we saw in 2013.

crazy movement for just a few days and still hasn't even passed $4 which it was at like a month ago. i didn't quite catch the bottom or average down as much as i probably should've so i'm only at 20-25% right now, although i have 3 different options opened for it so moves up pretty fast, but i think realistically $5 is achievable which would put me at 100%+. you're in jan 2023 3c right? what was your average cost if you don't mind me asking?