Talking Stocks 2.0

[SMD]

Originally Posted by teqp

A lot of folks on TRF can afford them, I'm sure. But the general pop...i doubt they can.

Peloton never appealed to the general population.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by teqp

The first 3 make sense to me, but can't believe that as people are not working or getting laid off, they will start to buy stationary bikes that cost over $2000. That reminds me of 08 when people stopped getting LASIK and stuck with their glasses or contact lenses and that sector tanked as a result.

It’s not just the 2k.

It’s adding a monthly bill on top of it.

And every gym and studio across America is steaming free.

I’d not out my money into that stock.

But I’m also usually wrong.

[Bearxj86]

The two quotes (one that I recently learned) that are easy to quote and hard to do, especially when we are all in the fight or flight mode:

1) Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". - Warren Buffet

2) The time to buy is when there's blood in the street, even if the blood is your own". - Baron Rothschild

[s2h904]

Originally Posted by m j b

I want to remind people that are worried, panicked, etc. that for every stock that goes down in price, that means that someone is buying it. Yes, we're down about 10% as I write this, but again, for every sale there is a corresponding purchase.

If no one was buying, then we'd be plummeting to zero, and then you should be very, very concerned. It isn't happening.

I'm buying today. I've been buying all day long, and I'll continue to. Really good solid companies are selling for prices not seen in years.

Here's an example: Phillip Morris. MO. The largest cigarette company in the country by every measure, now called Altria, makes many of the major brands including Marlboro. The most popular brand in the world.

So what? Smokers do not quit. Heck, in times of stress, they'll want to smoke even more. What else can they do? They will skimp on food, beverages, recreational drugs, clothes, etc. See a homeless person, and odds are they have some cigarettes on them. It's the last thing to go.

That's my stock tip of the day.

PM (Phillip Morris International) is another one. It's the spin-off of the non-USA markets. 8% yield. Altria, over a 9% yield.

Michael you are aces in my book comrade. I have had this stock in my portfolio for over twenty years. It will be a cold day in hell before I sell one share.

I am looking at the usual suspects to buy when the dust settles: AAPL/TSLA/MSFT and my beloved mouse Disney. I think Disney will take the longest to get back on track(Iger stepping down being the biggest reason).

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The two quotes (one that I recently learned) that are easy to quote and hard to do, especially when we are all in the fight or flight mode:

1) Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". - Warren Buffet

2) The time to buy is when there's blood in the street, even if the blood is your own". - Baron Rothschild

Good quotes, yet why not wait for the bottom in another few weeks or so.

BTW, Rothschild also said during the 2008 downturn on CNBC if want to be safe, hold on to your gold bars.

[s2h904]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The two quotes (one that I recently learned) that are easy to quote and hard to do, especially when we are all in the fight or flight mode:

1) Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". - Warren Buffet

2) The time to buy is when there's blood in the street, even if the blood is your own". - Baron Rothschild

Amen to both.....

I do not wish ill on anyone but if you are looking for deals on stocks the time is now/or soon.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by beshannon

The Fed is injecting liquidity into the commercial paper markets so business can get short term loan, no the Fed is not buying stocks.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/17/the-...ouseholds.html

As you know, the Fed is buying US Debt directly. Basically, their member bank JPM, GS, etc buys US Debt issuance, then within 24 hours the Fed buys it from them. So the Fed WILL be buying other debt instruments soon either directly or through their partners, which is then packaged it in a way the Fed 'can' buy it. Slight of hand tricks and am sure you agree the Fed needs to be forensically audited ASAP.

[golfgrouch]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Good quotes, yet why not wait fo the bottom in another few weeks or so...

How do you know when the bottom is reached or even near? People convinced me it was at the bottom 20% ago!

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The two quotes (one that I recently learned) that are easy to quote and hard to do, especially when we are all in the fight or flight mode:

1) Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". - Warren Buffet

2) The time to buy is when there's blood in the street, even if the blood is your own". - Baron Rothschild

While these are true, the hard part is recognizing how much blood needs to be on the street before you buy. There is already a lot, but likely more to come. While no one can pick the exact Market bottom, and everyone should make their own decisions regarding their money/investments, it does seem like things are going to get noticeably worse before they get better.

It is important to reject conventional wisdom about overly relying on rigid chart technical analysis during crazy times like these. Another quotation I find helpful when the Market continues to defy expectations:

“The stock market can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.”
-A. Gary Shilling


I have learned the truth of that statement quite painfully over the years.

[Doc Savage]

Just seen on Twitter:

J.P. Morgan out with new GDP estimates. (Kids, cover your eyes.)

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5% overall.

Unemployment rate goes to 6.25% midyear, 5.25% in Dec.

[Hard_Six]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

How do you know when the bottom is reached or even near? People convinced me it was at the bottom 20% ago!

And you believed them? Here's the truth... no one knows Personally, I think it's going to get worse. But what do I know?

[beshannon]

Nice move up from the lows, my buys today actually finished in the green

VIX is ~76 which is where it started the day

Will need to see if there is any new bad news overnight to further spook the markets or see if the lows from today can hold at least for the short term

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

How do you know when the bottom is reached or even near? People convinced me it was at the bottom 20% ago!

You don't.

Just a small piece of advice, use all the information available to you but try to form your own opinion. Not so important to be right, try to understand how things are moving and why they are moving.

And for what it is worth this entire situation is unprecedented



There are many people struggling to understand

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

Just seen on Twitter:

J.P. Morgan out with new GDP estimates. (Kids, cover your eyes.)

Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%

Full year: -1.5% overall.

Unemployment rate goes to 6.25% midyear, 5.25% in Dec.

Things are changing literally so rapidly, I can't understand how projections like this can be made and believed.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Things are changing literally so rapidly, I can't understand how projections like this can be made and believed.

True. Things will likely change. I think its value is in a realistic snapshot of where things are right now. I STILL hear people crowing about how this is all an overblown, media-driven crisis. It's important for us to realize it's a serious, long term issue.

I realize the majority of us here probably do already recognize this.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by golfgrouch

How do you know when the bottom is reached or even near? People convinced me it was at the bottom 20% ago!

For me, it's a feeling, so hard to quantify in numbers and charts. During Dot Com many friends had no idea of the web and i helped them on the upswing as KNEW the web. Also felt the downturn four days before it happened, called them all around 3am to get out. Never asked anyone for a penny.

2008-ish, that was soooo easy to predict. C'mon, so easy to see the mass fraud by banks, yet surprised no one went to jail. On the other hand, no jail time proved who owns the....

This currenct cycle, we are faaaaar from the bottom. Wait until 1,000,000 deaths globally and then check back. IMHO Wait.

LEAVE emotion at the door, use MATH!

PS: My sincere and deeeeeepest of apologies if my post seems 'cold' and 'unsympathetic', yet this is MATH and math has no feelings. Money doesn't care who you are or what you do. Predicting the human 'sentiment' element can be a challenge, yet as people have friends and those they know die from this virus, THEN we'll be seeing.... So for now, sell it all and stay in cash (prob USD is best, until it's not), yet currency plays are also a risk so keep that in mind.

JMHO and am sure some reading this think.... Yet wait and see. Why rush back into this market that has yet to fully realize the MANY financial defaults, deaths that add the human factor, etc. You can only 'loan' out so much of a currency until its' value becomes too greatly diminished. Am sure we all know "you can't have confidence in currency without a CON" (h/t Mr. Robot).

[JParm]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

True. Things will likely change. I think its value is in a realistic snapshot of where things are right now. I STILL hear people crowing about how this is all an overblown, media-driven crisis. It's important for us to realize it's a serious, long term issue.

I realize the majority of us here probably do already recognize this.

Those are the types that need a lecture on the state of Italy, Spain, etc., and we're not talking about markets.

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by beshannon

You don't.

Just a small piece of advice, use all the information available to you but try to form your own opinion. Not so important to be right, try to understand how things are moving and why they are moving.

And for what it is worth this entire situation is unprecedented



There are many people struggling to understand

Great points.

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Those are the types that need a lecture on the state of Italy, Spain, etc., and we're not talking about markets.

Indeed. Living with blinders on, they are.

[Bearxj86]

Steven,

I agree. However since 2008, the advent of more social media and information disbursement - do you think that this accelerates the bottoming out process? As pointed out by some here, it was around 12-18 months from peak to trough (2007 to 2008), however we've seen markets bottom out quicker and quicker...?

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

For me, it's a feeling, so hard to quantify in numbers and charts. During Dot Com many friends had no idea of the web and i helped them on the upswing as KNEW the web. Also felt the downturn four days before it happened, called them all around 3am to get out. Never asked anyone for a penny.

2008-ish, that was soooo easy to predict. C'mon, so easy to see the mass fraud by banks, yet surprised no one went to jail. On the other hand, no jail time proved who owns the....

This currenct cycle, we are faaaaar from the bottom. Wait until 1,000,000 deaths globally and then check back. IMHO Wait.

LEAVE emotion at the door, use MATH!

PS: My sincere and deeeeeepest of apologies if my post seems 'cold' and 'unsympathetic', yet this is MATH and math has no feelings. Money doesn't care who you are or what you do. Predicting the human 'sentiment' element can be a challenge, yet as people have friends and those they know die from this virus, THEN we'll be seeing.... So for now, sell it all and stay in cash (prob USD is best, until it's not), yet currency plays are also a risk so keep that in mind.

JMHO and am sure some reading this think.... Yet wait and see. Why rush back into this market that has yet to fully realize the MANY financial defaults, deaths that add the human factor, etc. You can only 'loan' out so much of a currency until its' value becomes too greatly diminished. Am sure we all know "you can't have confidence in currency without a CON" (h/t Mr. Robot).

[Vamp]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

The two quotes (one that I recently learned) that are easy to quote and hard to do, especially when we are all in the fight or flight mode:

1) Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful". - Warren Buffet

2) The time to buy is when there's blood in the street, even if the blood is your own". - Baron Rothschild

With a name like bear too! Lol but yes I definitely agree with these statements

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Steven,
I agree. However since 2008, the advent of more social media and information disbursement - do you think that this accelerates the bottoming out process? As pointed out by some here, it was around 12-18 months from peak to trough (2007 to 2008), however we've seen markets bottom out quicker and quicker...?

Excellent question and back then (2008) the 'big traders' (market movers) were already online, using their Bloomberg terminal, etc. so not sure if this time is 'different'. Day traders don't stand a chance against algos anyway, unless you have a really seriously good algo, and if it is really good and gets noticed you could go to jail for using it (it's happened already a few years back). Still, a few folks with a good algo don't have the 'means' to move the market like the Big Fish with access to cheap, and nearly unlimited, Federal Reserve currency product.

The web / net can move the sentiment, yet remember that an overwhelming majority of American citizens hated the idea of TARP, yet that got passed anyway.

So, in the end no.... the more availability of the web and internet resources by the general public doesn't really have a market sway as the big players do imho.

Kinda in contradiction of that above statement, of course with the United States of America being a consumer-based economy, if the consumer 'isn't buying it' then you have no 'consumer-based economy'. <poof>

[maximus1]

The time to buy is when there's blood in the street, even if the blood is your own". - Baron Rothschild[/QUOTE]

Well it was bloody today and bought enough USO to fill my neighbors swimming pools.

Oil demand is so far down and the producers are still pumping.

I know that I will take a while to slow down production but they are likely to shut it down when the storage tanks are full.

Just my thoughts.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by maximus1

The time to buy is when there's blood in the street, even if the blood is your own". - Baron Rothschild

Well it was bloody today and bought enough USO to fill my neighbors swimming pools.

Oil demand is so far down and the producers are still pumping.

I know that I will take a while to slow down production but they are likely to shut it down when the storage tanks are full.

Just my thoughts.[/QUOTE]

Was just going to post this.

Still no balls to out money in. Not doing it.

But oil seems like a good play.

[NaCl01]

This thread aged poorly.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by bearxj86

Steven,



I agree. However since 2008, the advent of more social media and information disbursement - do you think that this accelerates the bottoming out process? As pointed out by some here, it was around 12-18 months from peak to trough (2007 to 2008), however we've seen markets bottom out quicker and quicker...?

FYI the Dow crash from 2007 to 2008 only lasted 7 months. In that time it dropped 53% of its value.

I know you didn't address this to me, but since I've already chimed in, I will opine. This crash has the potential to be a month or two shorter, but that depends completely on how long the pandemic lasts and how severe it is. I know that's a vague answer, but it is exactly this uncertainty which makes predicting the end of this Bear Market fairly difficult right now.

[kieselguhr]

Everything I have is red Just been buying more every other day at lower than previous to offset loses. I don’t know if it’s a good move but what else am I going to do with investment allocated funds?

Just staying calm and digging my head in the sand.

[Bearxj86]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

FYI the Dow crash from 2007 to 2008 only lasted 7 months. In that time it dropped 53% of its value.

I know you didn't address this to me, but since I've already chimed in, I will opine. This crash has the potential to be a month or two shorter, but that depends completely on how long the pandemic lasts and how severe it is. I know that's a vague answer, but it is exactly this uncertainty which makes predicting the end of this Bear Market fairly difficult right now.

Appreciate your input!

[Bearxj86]

At the risk of sounding melodramatic - we only have perhaps a handful of these crashes in our lifetimes. The historical data empirically points towards a higher S&P 500 in the future -the time horizon is the uncertainty. We sense the fear, we know people are not acting rationale, we see the volatility.

In Chinese, the word crisis is two words, a combination of "danger" and "opportunity". I do not profess to be a master of finance (not even close) or have an ability to time the market. What I do know is that I am more likely to earn an above average market return if I buy now and over the next months than any other time in the past 10 or so years.

I'll drop another cliche that "luck is when preparation meets opportunity". Most of us knew this day would come. Yet when it arrives why does it feel so surprising? Our genetics hardwire our blood to rush to our limbs and not our brain when we feel threatened. Sane, rationale thinking is the hardest thing to do right now.

I am not advocating balls to the wall investing or going all-in. However the risk adjusted return looks appealing to me. It's about careful risk taking.

[Tommyk]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Everything I have is red Just been buying more every other day at lower than previous to offset loses. I don’t know if it’s a good move but what else am I going to do with investment allocated funds?

Just staying calm and digging my head in the sand.

Thats exactly where i was, portfolio was negative 35% (mostly bonds, mutual funds, ETF) Sold them all at market value this afternoon as i figure it will take longer for them to recover than individual stocks will.

[SMD]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

FYI the Dow crash from 2007 to 2008 only lasted 7 months. In that time it dropped 53% of its value.

I know you didn't address this to me, but since I've already chimed in, I will opine. This crash has the potential to be a month or two shorter, but that depends completely on how long the pandemic lasts and how severe it is. I know that's a vague answer, but it is exactly this uncertainty which makes predicting the end of this Bear Market fairly difficult right now.

Lasted longer than that. Took 6 years to get back even and 18 months to bottom.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...&postcount=775

This is going to go a long time until we get back where we started. Every single state and municipality is severely underwater on their pension obligations. They will need to raise taxes or cut spending. This will be a slow bleed that will take years to come to fruition. Massive layoffs. Mortgage defaults MBS’s defaulting and on and on. Entire industries are being decimated. And we are now drilling into people’s heads to avoid public spaces, avoid large gatherings, busy restaurants, be fearful, etc. This will continue for months and months. And then what, people will just jump back and go to large festivals like lolla? Everyone will go back to pre-corona days with no change in behavior? This is going to be years to climb out of the hole we are digging.

Way too much happy talk in here.

Edit: My numbers are for S&P as it is more reflective of the market than the Dow.