Talking Stocks 2.0

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Did you watch PG's presentation today? It was VERY encouraging, especially on script numbers. Certainly better than the past, which is a relatively low bar for him to clear.

I've been taking profits off my AUPH position over the past couple of days, most of that going into BCRX. What are you thinking here now with the Oppenheimer and Cantor conferences added later on this month?

I'll be watching closely going into OPEX this week. A close above 20 is going to cut my position in half.

[huncho]

some interesting possible news on sofi found on reddit

they hired Chad Borton who was previously the bank president at USAA, head of consumer and business banking at fifth third bank and head of branch administration at jpm. possible bank charter around the corner?

Chad Borton
President, SoFi Bank at SoFi
https://www.linkedin.com/in/chad-borton-b520346/

other employees are updating their profiles to include "SoFi Bank" as well

also Mizuho bank came out with a $28 price target today

[jaisonline]

Gotta love the games analysts play.

Maybe Morgan Stanley has a short position on LCID?
1 day after MS' Adam Jonas puts a $12 w/ underweight target, BoA puts a $30 w/ buy rating. 3 days before Jonas put his $ target, Citigroup put a $28 and buy target .

Reminds me of PLTR, DKNG, and others during the last 12 months with 1
2 days apart ratings.


https://www.benzinga.com/stock/lcid/ratings

[7sins]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

I've been taking profits off my AUPH position over the past couple of days, most of that going into BCRX. What are you thinking here now with the Oppenheimer and Cantor conferences added later on this month?

I'll be watching closely going into OPEX this week. A close above 20 is going to cut my position in half.

Max pain for options expiring this week is $20 with significant 10,000+ OI. I suspect MM's will try to pin under $20 going into tomorrow, would be great to see $19 hold. I am holding my position until next year at the least, or until A2 data is released and we become SoC. Ideally BO would be great but I believe the stock can organically hit the $30s in time.

[sokoloka]

Finally catching up on all this finance bro activity. Been actively trimming LTC gains to fund my weekly index investments while looking at a select few opportunities to deploy and ride all over again.

Forever long ATEC.

[asloper6001]

7sins - do you think the China Evergrande stuff will spill over into our market or will they properly be able to mask it from their side?

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Now if only CRVS could get its act together I'd be ecstatic about my returns this year. Dr. Miller better be working on good news between now and the end of the year.

CRVS up 58% in tonight's aftermarket.

Off to a decent start here approaching year end.

[joewang1988]

BABA stock is a good risk/reward stock if you can stomach the appetite for china's decision making on policies. Fundamentals are great.

[jaisonline]

FYI…

6:21a ET 9/20/2021 - MarketWatch
All 30 Dow stocks fall as Evergrande default fears spark selloff

Shares of all 30 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are trading lower in Monday's premarket, led by financials, as part of a global equity selloff sparked by concerns over the collateral damage from the potential default by China-base real estate developer Evergrande Group.

—————

Michael Burry also posting on Twitter. Not saying I agree with all his views but always interested in knowing the opinions.
Note: he deletes tweets every 24 hours or so.

This account archives him. https://twitter.com/burryarchive?s=21

[scarlet knight]

I swore off buying Chinese equities earlier this year. However, if China tanks, the contagion could spill into our market.

[jltait]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I swore off buying Chinese equities earlier this year. However, if China tanks, the contagion could spill into our market.

Yeah this definitely feels different than all the other things that seem to spook the market every couple weeks or so. People having been talking about the overheated Chinese property and development market for quite some time. Maybe chickens are finally coming home to roost so to speak. This may be their ‘08. If it is, will surely have knock on effects globally.

[asloper6001]

Jim Thanos and others were talking about the way you actually invest in the West is a farce. You're basically investing in a piece of paper in the Caribbean that is a holding company for the actual Chinese stock. You never truly own the underlying asset of the company. I guess my previous question is coming to fruition with the market literally on a week delay with Evergrande.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by asloper6001

Jim Thanos and others were talking about the way you actually invest in the West is a farce. You're basically investing in a piece of paper in the Caribbean that is a holding company for the actual Chinese stock. You never truly own the underlying asset of the company. I guess my previous question is coming to fruition with the market literally on a week delay with Evergrande.

yeah this is true, china won't ever give access to americans to own % of their companies, but theoretically in the end it's all about making money so i don't think that will stop people. there needs to be an institutional flow of money back into baba for it to go up though and they've all dumped it due to the political fears. retail already bought it up in august when it first hit 150s and it helped at first but now it's back. i've been averaging down since around 205 and i'm down over 50% now on 2023 leaps and i'm done putting money in there. their fundamentals are great and it gives you a sense of false confidence because the price should've never dropped below 170-180, but there is no bottom with this company it seems, because every time it has a green day you wake up to more bad news. still think it recovers and goes back to 200+ in a year or so and that'll net me some profit but not gonna average down anymore i think

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Now if I didn’t have so much of my “play money” in LCID & LCIDWs.

Genius.. I got in a few days back and its been a great ride..

[7sins]

Originally Posted by asloper6001

7sins - do you think the China Evergrande stuff will spill over into our market or will they properly be able to mask it from their side?

Sorry just seeing this, been a busy few days. Is it going to cause an issue in the Chinese Real Estate market? Yes. Is it going to cause a small decline in the $120B exports from America to China each year? Yes. Will it be meaningful in the over $20T American economy? No. Will it have a systemic illiquidity impact like we saw with Lehman brothers? Absolutely not. Look at the bond market yesterday, market was down over 700pts and the 10yr treasury was POSITIVE 1bp. This is not indicative of a market that is panicking with a flight to safety otherwise you would see yields down significantly. I also believe this supports my theory this won't be long lasting.

The last point is being the most important with the level of transparency. The market has known for weeks/months now regarding Evergrande's approaching delinquency and debt issues, hence why their bonds were trading for 20c on the dollar. The entire real estate sector is of importance to the Chinese gov, no single company would be viewed as systemically important and so individual company defaults and debt restructuring are highly possible. This also creates some distressed debt opportunities since some of these bonds are pricing in high chance of default (like AMC bonds earlier this year).

The owners of this debt are in higher concentration and not widespread with absolutely little to zero impact on American Banks nor the american banking system. I do believe you will see continued volatility but this was an easy catalyst for a pullback in an overheated market looking for excuse. Not to mention the upcoming debt ceiling and rising corporate/personal taxes, the latter being my bigger concern.

Good chart below showing any 5% corrections and the number of days along with respective rationale. Notices how the number of days is getting smaller and smaller. This is why I always suggested having LEAPS puts when market is at all time highs and having cash to buy on dips like yest when stocks are oversold. I don't think this will be the end of the volatility we see.

[7sins]

Hope you boys are having a hell of a ride on this $AUPH train. Positive another 15% today, busting through multiple ATHs. Not bad 76% 1MO run, not based on material news and high VOL. Could be one of three things happening behind the scenes. 1. The BO is becoming a reality 2. Scripts are picking up and validation of VOC 3. There are legitimate more potential uses for VOC. Maybe all three but checking the option chain and vol, we are seeing significant positive sentiment and still aren't near analyst PTs.

Also hope some of you got in on those hzac-wt's I was pounding the table on here in the 1.40s. Now back to 1.75 in about two weeks for a bit over 20% return.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Hope you boys are having a hell of a ride on this $AUPH train. Positive another 15% today, busting through multiple ATHs. Not bad 76% 1MO run, not based on material news and high VOL. Could be one of three things happening behind the scenes. 1. The BO is becoming a reality 2. Scripts are picking up and validation of VOC 3. There are legitimate more potential uses for VOC. Maybe all three but checking the option chain and vol, we are seeing significant positive sentiment and still aren't near analyst PTs.

Also hope some of you got in on those hzac-wt's I was pounding the table on here in the 1.40s. Now back to 1.75 in about two weeks for a bit over 20% return.

Yup. AUPH has been solid together with HZAC. Have stock instead of warrants though on HZAC.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Hope you boys are having a hell of a ride on this $AUPH train.

It's relief after so much chasing on the way down. Very fat gains realized here with a more reasonable position going forward.

Even more of a ride has been CRVS since last week! Hope some others got in on this one at the lows. Things got moving a little sooner than I expected. Incredible opportunity, good things to come.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

It's relief after so much chasing on the way down. Very fat gains realized here with a more reasonable position going forward.

Even more of a ride has been CRVS since last week! Hope some others got in on this one at the lows. Things got moving a little sooner than I expected. Incredible opportunity, good things to come.

You are telling me, was getting a little shaky there when we hit $10, glad I averaged down along the way. What other biotech are you looking into? I'm still in preliminary research on ALBO, APRE, MIRM and AADI. ALBO is my little hidden gem but still looking to better understand future rev and why the dislocation in the price after FDA approval - perhaps similar to AUPH post approval.

Originally Posted by chsu74

Yup. AUPH has been solid together with HZAC. Have stock instead of warrants though on HZAC.

Ahh, my .02 but if we see a pullback in the warrants again, consider flipping the stock into the warrants, much more potential upside. Especially before proxy is announced this month or early next quarter.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Ahh, my .02 but if we see a pullback in the warrants again, consider flipping the stock into the warrants, much more potential upside. Especially before proxy is announced this month or early next quarter.

Gotcha. Only have 300 shares and was wondering if my couch is hiding more gains in loose change lol.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Gotcha. Only have 300 shares and was wondering if my couch is hiding more gains in loose change lol.

haha no, I would not expect much if any move in the sp pre-merger and be pegged at $10, you will see more movement in the warrants. Even so, lets say they merge and price goes to $15. That is 50% on your sp, the warrants have a strike at $11.50 and would be an intrinsic value of $3.50 which is about 100% from current price and does not include any premium which would need to be included for a total value of I would suspect ~$4-5.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

haha no, I would not expect much if any move in the sp pre-merger and be pegged at $10, you will see more movement in the warrants. Even so, lets say they merge and price goes to $15. That is 50% on your sp, the warrants have a strike at $11.50 and would be an intrinsic value of $3.50 which is about 100% from current price and does not include any premium which would need to be included for a total value of I would suspect ~$4-5.

Got it. Have to call my broker for warrant purchase? Can’t find it in ticker search

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Got it. Have to call my broker for warrant purchase? Can’t find it in ticker search

Try HZACWS. You should be able to do a warrant search on your trading platform. My broker lists the security as WT08 25HORIZON.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Got it. Have to call my broker for warrant purchase? Can’t find it in ticker search

Mine shows up as HZAC.WS

[Magnum75]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Mine shows up as HZAC.WS

HZAC/WS for Schwab.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Got it. Have to call my broker for warrant purchase? Can’t find it in ticker search

HZAC+ for TD.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Genius.. I got in a few days back and its been a great ride..

More like luck. Fortunately, I bought some Aug , Nov & Jan calls early last Feb. Bought 9/17 $20.50 puts in late Aug and sold on Sept 1 after their PIPE unlocking. Had been cost averaging down pretty everything LCID in my portfolio during the last 3 months of dips. Started trimming last week & still continuing. Holding on to my common stock though. Definitely had some lessons learnt w/ CCIV & LCID (some really hard though).

[jaisonline]

Little fist bump

SoFi initiated with buy rating and $25 price target at Jefferies

https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sofi/ratings

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Little fist bump

SoFi initiated with buy rating and $25 price target at Jefferies

https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sofi/ratings

should have never dropped this low for so long, just need that bank charter to get approved and we're off

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

should have never dropped this low for so long, just need that bank charter to get approved and we're off

Agreed on Bank Charter, there was a great interview with CEO Noto yesterday, I posted the link below and it is worth listening to if you are in SOFI. Was hoping it would close in Q4 but looking like early next year now. Also FYI 2024 option chain is open now.

Anthony Noto: "I would say the biggest game changer for us in the next 6 to 12 months would be the benefit of the bank (license), which will allow us to really differentiate the products and increase the awareness that we have in the US and adoption and the ability to innovate on products even more."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiBecbNwCm0