Talking Stocks 2.0

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by joewang1988

BABA stock is a good risk/reward stock if you can stomach the appetite for china's decision making on policies. Fundamentals are great.

The fundamentals may be great, but that stock is subject to the whims of the Chinese government. They apparently do not like Jack Ma.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

The fundamentals may be great, but that stock is subject to the whims of the Chinese government. They apparently do not like Jack Ma.

Here are the broad strokes.

Factions exist within CCP since there is only one political party allowed. You have the conservatives, progressives and moderates that exist within.. You then have businesses that have prospered under the different premiers heads through out the years so they are connected to those different factions who are protected. As the power dynamic change within CCP, those companies are subjected to headwinds or tailwinds.

It is important to DD the background of each Chinese company when buying their stock. All of the companies being raked over hot coals right now are not in Emperor’s Xi’s camp.

Here is a good quick read if anyone is interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comm...ssmf&context=3

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Here are the broad strokes.

Factions exist within CCP since there is only one political party allowed. You have the conservatives, progressives and moderates that exist within.. You then have businesses that have prospered under the different premiers heads through out the years so they are connected to those different factions who are protected. As the power dynamic change within CCP, those companies are subjected to headwinds or tailwinds.

It is important to DD the background of each Chinese company when buying their stock. All of the companies being raked over hot coals right now are not in Emperor’s Xi’s camp.

Here is a good quick read if anyone is interested.

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comm...ssmf&context=3

thanks for this, was an interesting read. do you hold any chinese stocks or have any thoughts on what you think will happen? i still feel like baba will recover but who knows how long it will take. i'm mostly in june 2023 leaps and i'm down quite a bit but that's mostly because i had the great timing of getting in 2 weeks before they announced all the crackdowns and threw all those stocks off a cliff

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

thanks for this, was an interesting read. do you hold any chinese stocks or have any thoughts on what you think will happen? i still feel like baba will recover but who knows how long it will take. i'm mostly in june 2023 leaps and i'm down quite a bit but that's mostly because i had the great timing of getting in 2 weeks before they announced all the crackdowns and threw all those stocks off a cliff

I don't own any Chinese stocks because I feel owning papers to a shell company in the Cayman Islands is not worth the risk.(I do enough damage as is, with domestic trades like buying a few hundred shares of FDX at $250, relegating myself into a program of endless covered calls to claw out of that hole.) Doing business in China direct was challenging enough so this extra layer is not for me. A lot of folks think it is worth the risk so at some point this may turn around if there is simply a buyer willing to pay a higher price you paid for it. Who knows...

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

I don't own any Chinese stocks because I feel owning papers to a shell company in the Cayman Islands is not worth the risk.(I do enough damage as is, with domestic trades like buying a few hundred shares of FDX at $250, relegating myself into a program of endless covered calls to claw out of that hole.) Doing business in China direct was challenging enough so this extra layer is not for me. A lot of folks think it is worth the risk so at some point this may turn around if there is simply a buyer willing to pay a higher price you paid for it. Who knows...

i feel your pain on fedex lol but i'm sure you'll be ok pretty soon. i was actually gonna start looking into possibly getting into it again. haven't kept up and need to go through their earnings/news now that i have a bit of cash laying around

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

i feel your pain on fedex lol but i'm sure you'll be ok pretty soon. i was actually gonna start looking into possibly getting into it again. haven't kept up and need to go through their earnings/news now that i have a bit of cash laying around

FDX closed below their 52 week low at $229 today. Miss in earnings due to higher wages and inefficiency. Revenue beat and they are putting through a 5% price increase. Dunno if Amazon’s own logistics division took enough of a bite out of their economies of scale to affect their profitability. Also if the 5% price increase will drive customers away.

I sold more $225P for $3 bucks hoping it will not go there and start my way back. Luckily, I am holding a chunk of cash right now so can deploy as needed. Sucks that the AUPH, APPS, ENPH wins together with selling LCID before the pullback today yielded me an OK day as opposed to a nice day..

[chsu74]

Anyone know much about ZI?

Preliminary discovery on ZoomInfo is like how people ise Linkedin as a sales tool but organized to allow planning sales contact management. Has beaten estimates every quarter consistently but never blew past it.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

FDX closed below their 52 week low at $229 today. Miss in earnings due to higher wages and inefficiency. Revenue beat and they are putting through a 5% price increase. Dunno if Amazon’s own logistics division took enough of a bite out of their economies of scale to affect their profitability. Also if the 5% price increase will drive customers away.

I sold more $225P for $3 bucks hoping it will not go there and start my way back. Luckily, I am holding a chunk of cash right now so can deploy as needed. Sucks that the AUPH, APPS, ENPH wins together with selling LCID before the pullback today yielded me an OK day as opposed to a nice day..

yeah based on what they said, the amazon deal did impact them quite heavily because of the low margins and high capacity required. they also said they will be looking to add 90k workers for the holiday season to look to remediate the main issue of missing earnings this past quarter. i just got back in with some leaps, will see how it goes

[7sins]

If you listen to the FDX call, the bigger issue was the labor shortage. With government subsidies coming to an end, the workforce will no longer make more sitting at home. Additionally with school back in session, that should free more workers who were forced to be at home to re-enter the workforce. This should help provide enough workers to support their busiest holiday season along with 5%+ price increases.

I'm keeping a close eye on it here at $230 and will asses buying LEAPS should we get below $220 but holding no position for now. Revised price targets this week place it ~$280, still well off YTD high. Two research reports below that hit my wire last two days.




Some good news for those riding on the 2023 COTY leaps, this is pretty meaningful:

New York, September 21, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") today upgraded Coty Inc.'s ("Coty") Corporate Family Rating ("CFR") to B2 from Caa1, its probability of default rating to B2-PD from Caa1-PD, and the company's senior secured credit facility ratings to B1 from B3, including Coty's first lien revolving credit facility and its first lien term loan. Moody's also upgraded the company's senior secured notes rating to B1 from B3 and its unsecured notes rating to Caa1 from Caa3. Coty's Speculative Grade Liquidity fating was changed to SGL-3 from SGL-4. The rating outlook is stable.

[jaisonline]

Regarding Vivid .

Press Release: Horizon Acquisition Corporation and Vivid Seats Announce Effectiveness of Registration Statement in Connection with Proposed Business Combination


Horizon Acquisition Corporation and Vivid Seats Announce Effectiveness of Registration Statement in Connection with Proposed Business Combination

Special Meeting Date Set For October 14, 2021

CHICAGO, Sept. 24, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vivid Seats Inc. ("Vivid Seats" or the "Company"), a leading marketplace that utilizes its technology platform to connect millions of buyers with thousands of ticket sellers across hundreds of thousands of events each year, today announced that its registration statement on Form S-4 (the "Registration Statement"), in connection with its previously announced proposed business combination (the "Business Combination") with Horizon Acquisition Corporation ("Horizon") (NYSE:HZAC), has been declared effective by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). The Registration Statement provides important information about Horizon, Vivid Seats and the Business Combination and can be found on the SEC's website at https://www.sec.gov under the ticker "SEAT."

Horizon also announced today a record date of September 7, 2021 (the "Record Date") and a meeting date of October 14, 2021 for its extraordinary general meeting (the "Special Meeting") to approve the Business Combination. The closing of the Business Combination is subject to approval by Horizon's shareholders, and the satisfaction of other customary closing conditions. The Business Combination is expected to close promptly after the Special Meeting.

Upon closing, the combined company is expected to be listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol "SEAT." For more information about the transaction, please visit www.horizonacquisitioncorp.com/.

Horizon recommends all stockholders vote "FOR" ALL PROPOSALS in advance of the Meeting by telephone, via the Internet or by signing, dating and returning the proxy card upon receipt by following the easy instructions on the proxy card.

Your Vote FOR ALL Proposals Is Important, No Matter How Many or How Few Shares You Own.

If you have questions about voting or need assistance voting, please contact Morrow Sodali LLC by calling (800) 662-5200 (individuals) or (203) 658-9400 (banks and brokers) or by email to: HZAC.info@investor.morrowsodali.com.

[jaisonline]

8:30a ET 9/27/2021 - Benzinga
Coty Partners With Perfect Corp To Expand Beauty Tech Offerings

Coty Inc (NYSE: COTY) has announced a multi-channel agreement with beauty tech solutions provider Perfect Corp to embed augmented reality and artificial intelligence experiences into the digital marketing toolkits of its beauty brands. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The technology solutions will provide virtual try-on, online skin diagnostics, and data-driven personalization for various brands, including CoverGirl, Sally Hansen and philosophy, and its fragrance portfolio.
Coty expects the partnership to enhance in-store shopping with touchless product experiences.

[logo]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

8:30a ET 9/27/2021 - Benzinga
Coty Partners With Perfect Corp To Expand Beauty Tech Offerings

Coty Inc (NYSE: COTY) has announced a multi-channel agreement with beauty tech solutions provider Perfect Corp to embed augmented reality and artificial intelligence experiences into the digital marketing toolkits of its beauty brands. The financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.
The technology solutions will provide virtual try-on, online skin diagnostics, and data-driven personalization for various brands, including CoverGirl, Sally Hansen and philosophy, and its fragrance portfolio.
Coty expects the partnership to enhance in-store shopping with touchless product experiences.

Very pleased to see this. Interest among retailers for offering beauty tech to consumers has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, and L’Oreal is so far ahead here that this move by COTY was a necessity.

[AshCashEmAll]

Short interest of bbig is at 260% am I missing something here ? Can I still get in now and make some money of there is a squeeze?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Very pleased to see this. Interest among retailers for offering beauty tech to consumers has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic, and L’Oreal is so far ahead here that this move by COTY was a necessity.

Should be looking at the COTY 2023 $7C at $2.59, so BE at 9.59 with 480 days to expiration. Delta +.72 and Gamma +.06. These have been oversold the last few weeks, I think slightly ITM at these prices could be a great area to further build a position. I mentioned I've exited all 2022 calls but own these $7 and $10 2023 calls, building more into the $7C as it is more attractive entry currently.


SABR quietly making moves behind the scenes, nice 20% move the last month or so, hope those followed on the way down below $10, should be clearing $12.50 soon. Do not forget US is opening to international vaccinated travels and look recently as TSA travelthrough picking up. Below last 10 days, 60% were close to or past 2M which is significantly on the up trend. Some good things going on behind the scenes here.

[jaisonline]

Looks like Disney is having more Marvel-related legal woes (first Scarlett Johansson & now Avengers). This new legal issue is an inherent one from when they acquired Marvel (kinda like the Stan Lee lawsuit which was settled before the DIS acquisition).


1:09a ET 9/28/2021 - Benzinga
Thanos Snap: Could Disney Lose Avengers? What Investors Should Know About Comic Book Lawsuit

Mentioned: DIS SONY T


In 'Avengers: Infinity War,' the Thanos snap changes the fate of several characters in the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Could a real-life Thanos snap happen and keep the Walt Disney Co (NYSE: DIS) from creating new content with several of the biggest superhero characters?
What Happened: Lawsuits between Marvel comic book creators and Disney could change the outlook of the superhero movie universe.
The family of Stan Ditko filed a notice of termination of Spider-Man, a character that first appeared in comic books in 1962.
The lawsuit uses copyright law, which grants authors or heirs the right to reclaim their works after a set period of time. Under the lawsuit, Disney would have to give up rights to Ditko-created characters in June 2023.
The specific claims from the Ditko family center on Spider-Man and Doctor Strange, two characters Ditko co-created. Sony Group Corp (NYSE: SONY) currently has media rights to the Spider-Man franchise.
Lawsuits against Disney and Marvel currently center on the characters of Iron Man, Spider-Man, Doctor Strange, Ant-Man, Hawkeye, Black Widow, Falcon and Thor.
Disney's defense claims that the comic book characters were created by made-for-hire workers, which would make them ineligible for copyright termination.
'Marvel had the right to exercise control over Lieber's contributions and paid Lieber a per-page rate for his work,' Disney claims about Larry Lieber, Stan Lee's younger brother, who has also filed a termination notice. Lieber was the co-creator for Iron Man, Ant-Man and Thor.
Related Link: Disney Reportedly Considering Purchase Of Spider-Man Rights Or Film Division From Sony
Why It's Important: The latest reports show that Disney would lose full ownership of the characters if they lose the lawsuit.
This means Disney could still make movies and content with the popular superhero characters but would be forced to split profits with the families of the comic book character creators.
A previous lawsuit saw the estate of Jack Kirby fighting a copyright claim against Marvel. Due to Kirby's freelancer and work-for-hire state, the family lost the lawsuit. The case was petitioned to the U.S. Supreme Court and the parties settled before the case was taken up.
Several of the lawmakers involved in the latest creator versus media company battle were involved in the Kirby case or similar cases against DC Comics, now a unit of AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T). The precedent set in those cases put the odds in Disney's favor to win the case.
The heirs of Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster spent years in litigation fighting for a copyright claim on Superman. The courts sided with DC Comics.
The other important item for the cases is it only concerns copyright law in the U.S. If the families win, they would only split profits made in the U.S. and see Disney continue to bring in massive amounts of profits from the international box office and licensing.
Since acquiring Marvel in 2009, Disney has enjoyed massive success from the Marvel characters. Movies in the Marvel Cinematic Universe have earned more than $23 billion from the worldwide box office. Marvel characters also help boost revenue of Disney+, consumer products, licensing and theme park tickets.

[jaisonline]

My portfolio’s “performance” reminds me of the black knight.

https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs

[huncho]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

My portfolio’s “performance” reminds me of the black knight.

https://youtu.be/ZmInkxbvlCs

lol this summer has been rough

[huncho]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-...111600627.html

SoFi Technologies, Inc. ("SoFi") (NASDAQ: SOFI) today announced its intention to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $750 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2026 (the "notes") in a private offering only to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Securities Act").

small sell off due to this but i'm assuming this means we're very close to the bank charter? added more leaps here

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sofi-...111600627.html



small sell off due to this but i'm assuming this means we're very close to the bank charter? added more leaps here

More like a beating today, underlying down 6% and warrants down 8%. I don't believe a bond conv offering has any correlation with them releasing the bank charter. Noto said bank charter was a few months away in his last interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiBecbNwCm0. They are getting A LOT of great attention from their stadium and now top 10 in the app store for downloads - this is GREAT news when we think about NAU (new active users). They need to improve their trading platform UI, especially for options as we want to take more marketshare from RobinHood. You can see below the meaningful impact a bank charter will have on EBITDA.

I've been waiting for this pull back, I am going to add to 2023 and 2024 options this week when we get back to 15s. Probably roll my warrants that are at a premium into those 1-2 LEAPS.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

More like a beating today, underlying down 6% and warrants down 8%. I don't believe a bond conv offering has any correlation with them releasing the bank charter. Noto said bank charter was a few months away in his last interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiBecbNwCm0. They are getting A LOT of great attention from their stadium and now top 10 in the app store for downloads - this is GREAT news when we think about NAU (new active users). They need to improve their trading platform UI, especially for options as we want to take more marketshare from RobinHood. You can see below the meaningful impact a bank charter will have on EBITDA.

I've been waiting for this pull back, I am going to add to 2023 and 2024 options this week when we get back to 15s. Probably roll my warrants that are at a premium into those 1-2 LEAPS.

i was thinking it was their way of raising some capital to put towards their banking sector. that + how 2 weeks ago they hired someone to head their banking division so figured maybe they were related. regardless, added today (possibly a bit too early, at around 16.2) and will add more if it drops to 15s. also side note, their stadium is sick lol. that 360 degree display they have is insane, and the chargers are doing pretty good so only means more exposure for sofi

[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

i was thinking it was their way of raising some capital to put towards their banking sector. that + how 2 weeks ago they hired someone to head their banking division so figured maybe they were related. regardless, added today (possibly a bit too early, at around 16.2) and will add more if it drops to 15s. also side note, their stadium is sick lol. that 360 degree display they have is insane, and the chargers are doing pretty good so only means more exposure for sofi

Don't forget Sofi stadium is hosting the SuperBowl this year too. The branding around the stadium is fantastic. I heard the new Raiders stadium is killer too with the Wynn suites, would be great to be in Vegas and actually be coherent enough to remember what happens.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

More like a beating today, underlying down 6% and warrants down 8%. I don't believe a bond conv offering has any correlation with them releasing the bank charter. Noto said bank charter was a few months away in his last interview https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xiBecbNwCm0. They are getting A LOT of great attention from their stadium and now top 10 in the app store for downloads - this is GREAT news when we think about NAU (new active users). They need to improve their trading platform UI, especially for options as we want to take more marketshare from RobinHood. You can see below the meaningful impact a bank charter will have on EBITDA.

I've been waiting for this pull back, I am going to add to 2023 and 2024 options this week when we get back to 15s. Probably roll my warrants that are at a premium into those 1-2 LEAPS.

Hmm. Have 2100 shares of SOFI and want to avg down but ‘23 and ‘14 leaps sound more appealing. What prices would you all be looking at? OTM $17 or $18Cs or something more ITM?

[jaisonline]

Today was so up & down day. Did exit completely from LCID Jan 21 ‘22 $35 Cs for a profit. Too much IV for me & along with everything else going on w/ the gov. Also trimmed 33% of my LCID common stock.

I’m starting to like PENN & DKNG again at current levels and will be adding. People just love to wager and play DFS from Sept. to Jan and then March Madness. Not a fan of DKNG’s Entain bid. Let MGM have them. Maybe DIS will do more with their stake in DKNG.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Hmm. Have 2100 shares of SOFI and want to avg down but ‘23 and ‘14 leaps sound more appealing. What prices would you all be looking at? OTM $17 or $18Cs or something more ITM?

im in jan 23 15c, 17.5c and jan 24 20c. also have a bit of jan 22 17.5c to play the bank charter news that i bought a few weeks ago. IV still isn't great on these 2023/2024s though but much better than the 95% it was a month or 2 ago. actually makes sense to get leaps over shares now

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Today was so up & down day. Did exit completely from LCID Jan 21 ‘22 $35 Cs for a profit. Too much IV for me & along with everything else going on w/ the gov. Also trimmed 33% of my LCID common stock.

I’m starting to like PENN & DKNG again at current levels and will be adding. People just love to wager and play DFS from Sept. to Jan and then March Madness. Not a fan of DKNG’s Entain bid. Let MGM have them. Maybe DIS will do more with their stake in DKNG.

I usually will sell deep ITM calls on positions I want to exit when market is jittery. Thinking $23 or 24Cs for LCID as you get to pocket the premium for additional profit. It also gives you time to watch it go down and make last minute adjustments if needed. We are on the same page here and looking to half or more on my holdings.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

im in jan 23 15c, 17.5c and jan 24 20c. also have a bit of jan 22 17.5c to play the bank charter news that i bought a few weeks ago. IV still isn't great on these 2023/2024s though but much better than the 95% it was a month or 2 ago. actually makes sense to get leaps over shares now

Tks! Makes a lot of sense. Forgot these are $2.50 pricing spread option table. Looking at too many $1 and $0.5 spread tables lately.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Hmm. Have 2100 shares of SOFI and want to avg down but ‘23 and ‘14 leaps sound more appealing. What prices would you all be looking at? OTM $17 or $18Cs or something more ITM?

I've been eyeing 15-20C in 23/24 chain just waiting to pull the trigger. I started building position today in SOFI $15C Dec 2023 now we are sub $16. Will start to roll my warrants into this position slowly. If we drop below $15 I will add to $17.50 and $20C 2024.

For those on AUPH, PG is starting webcast for Cantor Conference https://wsw.com/webcast/cantor12/reg...2/auph/2083340

[chsu74]

Thanks all. Will look for suitable entry environments over the next few weeks as I think we may get some.

[spurwar]

From my Fidelity news feed - someone has some serious stones. Is this you 7sins? :)


$1.8M Feb call buyer in Coty Beauty Products (TheFlyOnTheWall)
THE FLY 3:10 PM ET 9/30/2021
$1.8M Feb call buyer in Coty Beauty Products. Shares little changed this afternoon at $7.89 with calls leading puts 13:1 and Feb 9 calls making up most of the flow. Largest block printed on the Amex floor, where a customer paid 73c for 25575 contracts as shres traded $7.83, following a number of earlier nibbles from 68 to 71c. Total of 31k on the tape, vs 615 contracts open, creating a significant position at the 14% otm strike.

[sokoloka]

https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...usiness-Update

$ATEC