Talking Stocks 2.0

[RidingDonkeys]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Apparently, Rivian (RVIN) wants to raise it’s IPO price yet again. Not sure if there was money to be made after moving from $47-$52 to $72-74.

Can’t squeeze much out of a rock even in the rain.

I'm in on the IPO, but not as big as I'd planned. The price increase turned me off a bit. I don't see Rivian having an equivalent value to Ford.

I think the price will fall. I'll scoop up more when that happens.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[RidingDonkeys]

Well, Rivian is doing better than I thought.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[7sins]

Massive volume in the nov 19 chain for COTY today, looks like someone making a big bet for COTY's investor day next week. Wonder if it was the same buyer we pointed out pre ER. Very interesting, most vol here ATM with BE just north of $11.

Also nice upgrade from RayJ yesterday from market perform to outperform with a $14PT.

Originally Posted by huncho

what do you look for when buying calls/leaps besides the obvious like IV not being insanely high and theta being relatively low? generally i just plug in different slightly otm options into a calc and see the risk/reward but i know you mention specific option chains often so guessing you have a more specific way of picking better ones out

In addition to IV and the greeks, I also look through an entire chain for dislocations. Sometimes, usually on lower volume stocks ie NOT apple, you can find dislocations where a lowered priced strike sells off more than a higher strike, which could be a owner dumping his options on down days. That gap can close quickly as you have reversion to the means but creates a very good entry point. I typically try to buy on down days, I find I get much closer to the bid.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Massive volume in the nov 19 chain for COTY today, looks like someone making a big bet for COTY's investor day next week. Wonder if it was the same buyer we pointed out pre ER. Very interesting, most vol here ATM with BE just north of $11.

Also nice upgrade from RayJ yesterday from market perform to outperform with a $14PT.





In addition to IV and the greeks, I also look through an entire chain for dislocations. Sometimes, usually on lower volume stocks ie NOT apple, you can find dislocations where a lowered priced strike sells off more than a higher strike, which could be a owner dumping his options on down days. That gap can close quickly as you have reversion to the means but creates a very good entry point. I typically try to buy on down days, I find I get much closer to the bid.

makes sense, will start more closely monitoring things like that. thanks

sofi having a bit of a sell off. what are your guys plans for today? i'm holding everything i have (all leaps left). bracing for the potential apocalypse tonight after seeing all the other fintech earnings sell offs. granted sofi is positioned a bit differently going into it

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

makes sense, will start more closely monitoring things like that. thanks

sofi having a bit of a sell off. what are your guys plans for today? i'm holding everything i have (all leaps left). bracing for the potential apocalypse tonight after seeing all the other fintech earnings sell offs. granted sofi is positioned a bit differently going into it

I think if we were headed in at the highs over the past few months in the 23 range I’d be more cautious, but we are off >15% from that including a negative 10% today. HODL for me (I have shares).

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

I think if we were headed in at the highs over the past few months in the 23 range I’d be more cautious, but we are off >15% from that including a negative 10% today. HODL for me (I have shares).

yeah agreed, rather the sell off now than going into earnings at highs. haven't had a single good experience with earnings so far (besides coty but it was more of a recovery) so maybe that time is coming soon

[7sins]

BIG beat here on SOFI as we all called. Impressed by the Galileo numbers too and customer growth was off the charts. Now we can BE from the 8% loss today.

SoFi Technologies Q3 EPS $(0.05) Beats $(0.14) Estimate, Adj. EBITDA $10.256M vs $33.5M In Same Qtr. Last Year, Sales $277.19M Beat $255.63M Estimate
4:11 pm ET November 10, 2021 (Benzinga) Print
SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) reported quarterly losses of $(0.05) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.14) by 64.29 percent. This is a 92.86 percent increase over losses of $(0.70) per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $277.19 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $255.63 million by 8.43 percent.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

BIG beat here on SOFI as we all called. Impressed by the Galileo numbers too and customer growth was off the charts. Now we can BE from the 8% loss today.

SoFi Technologies Q3 EPS $(0.05) Beats $(0.14) Estimate, Adj. EBITDA $10.256M vs $33.5M In Same Qtr. Last Year, Sales $277.19M Beat $255.63M Estimate
4:11 pm ET November 10, 2021 (Benzinga) Print
SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) reported quarterly losses of $(0.05) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.14) by 64.29 percent. This is a 92.86 percent increase over losses of $(0.70) per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $277.19 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $255.63 million by 8.43 percent.

great to see, i expect q4 to be even better because it will include all the exposure they're getting from the nfl. expecting their user numbers to jump quite a bit during q4 and hopefully leads to good overall growth

[ScoRys]

Everybody have a great day today? Wow that was fun! I appreciate the advice here though very informative!


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[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by ScoRys

Everybody have a great day today? Wow that was fun! I appreciate the advice here though very informative!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I’ve been taking loses since 13 Oct. So, not me. Lol. I hope everyone else is killing it though. Hopefully someone bought into BORR when I pumped it a while back. I stupidly sold at $1.07.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[jaisonline]

Lucid covered call premiums are very nice for Jan 21 at $65 and $70 strikes. Currently between $400-$480 per contract based on today’s close.

[chsu74]

Bought APPS at $68.50 earlier. May add to it if it goes back there or lower.

[jaisonline]

I don’t own MQ but friends and “twitter world” are talking about it. I think the lock-up expiration is coming up…

Personally, I’m about to start reading the Rivian S-1 about the lockup info.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I don’t own MQ but friends and “twitter world” are talking about it. I think the lock-up expiration is coming up…

Personally, I’m about to start reading the Rivian S-1 about the lockup info.

It certainly has that BYND feel about it. That ran and ran until recently.

[chsu74]

Anyone concerned with SEAT unlocking shares on the 17th?

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Anyone concerned with SEAT unlocking shares on the 17th?

Where did you read that?

[MrGoat]

Is there serious manipulation happening with BBIG? It will look like it may have a good day pre market and then it falls on its face. I thought the news that came out would boost it back up. Is everyone else still holding? I’m getting tired of my money tied up there and not being able to put it into more profitable areas.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

Where did you read that?

I was trying to figure out the origin of 2.5mil volume two days ago from the usual few hundred K and ran across a post from ST saying that there is a lock up expiry.

Going through the S1 right now and see if I can find it. Maybe someone here knows and save me the time.

EDIT: Pulled up the S1 and looks to be different. Stock needs to be above $15 and exceed 1 mil in volume. Earliest is Jan 25 2021.

pg 128
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...m#rom221886_13

"Stockholders’ Agreement

At the Closing, we entered into the Stockholders’ Agreement with Sponsor and Hoya Topco, pursuant to which, among other things, Private Equity Owner was granted certain rights to designate directors for election to the Board (and the voting parties will vote in favor of such designees). Such director nomination rights of Hoya Topco and Sponsor shall step down as their respective aggregate ownership interests in us decrease.

In addition to the aforementioned nomination rights, pursuant to the Stockholders’ Agreement, Sponsor and Hoya Topco will agree, subject to limited exceptions, not to transfer shares of our common stock or warrants to purchase shares of our common stock held by Hoya Topco (and, in certain circumstances, certain of Hoya Topco’s members and their affiliates) or held by the Sponsor or any of its affiliates for a lock-up period (the “Lock-up Period”) after Closing as follows: (i) 50.0% of such shares and warrants will be subject to lock-up restrictions until the six (6) month anniversary of Closing and (ii) 50.0% of such shares and warrants will be subject to lock-up restrictions until the twelve (12) month anniversary of Closing; provided that 50.0% of these shares and warrants shall be released from the lock-up early upon the occurrence of both (a) the post-Closing share price exceeding $15.00 per share for twenty (20) trading days within a consecutive thirty (30)-trading day period commencing at least five (5) months after Closing and (b) the average daily trading volume exceeding one million (1,000,000) during such period.

The Stockholders’ Agreement also provides for, among other things, our obligation to maintain “controlled company” qualification (under applicable stock exchange rules) unless otherwise agreed by Hoya Topco and certain other voting agreements of Sponsor and Hoya Topco with respect to us.

Registration Rights Agreement

At the Closing, we, Sponsor and Hoya Topco amended and restated the Registration and Shareholder Rights Agreement, dated as of August 25, 2020, by and between Horizon and Sponsor. Pursuant to the Registration Rights Agreement, we agreed to file a registration statement for a shelf registration on Form S-1 or Form S-3 within 30 days following Closing and Sponsor and Hoya Topco will be granted certain customary registration rights with respect to our securities. "

[7sins]

Originally Posted by chsu74

I was trying to figure out the origin of 2.5mil volume two days ago from the usual few hundred K and ran across a post from ST saying that there is a lock up expiry.

Going through the S1 right now and see if I can find it. Maybe someone here knows and save me the time.

EDIT: Pulled up the S1 and looks to be different. Stock needs to be above $15 and exceed 1 mil in volume. Earliest is Jan 25 2021.

pg 128
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...m#rom221886_13

"Stockholders’ Agreement

At the Closing, we entered into the Stockholders’ Agreement with Sponsor and Hoya Topco, pursuant to which, among other things, Private Equity Owner was granted certain rights to designate directors for election to the Board (and the voting parties will vote in favor of such designees). Such director nomination rights of Hoya Topco and Sponsor shall step down as their respective aggregate ownership interests in us decrease.

In addition to the aforementioned nomination rights, pursuant to the Stockholders’ Agreement, Sponsor and Hoya Topco will agree, subject to limited exceptions, not to transfer shares of our common stock or warrants to purchase shares of our common stock held by Hoya Topco (and, in certain circumstances, certain of Hoya Topco’s members and their affiliates) or held by the Sponsor or any of its affiliates for a lock-up period (the “Lock-up Period”) after Closing as follows: (i) 50.0% of such shares and warrants will be subject to lock-up restrictions until the six (6) month anniversary of Closing and (ii) 50.0% of such shares and warrants will be subject to lock-up restrictions until the twelve (12) month anniversary of Closing; provided that 50.0% of these shares and warrants shall be released from the lock-up early upon the occurrence of both (a) the post-Closing share price exceeding $15.00 per share for twenty (20) trading days within a consecutive thirty (30)-trading day period commencing at least five (5) months after Closing and (b) the average daily trading volume exceeding one million (1,000,000) during such period.

The Stockholders’ Agreement also provides for, among other things, our obligation to maintain “controlled company” qualification (under applicable stock exchange rules) unless otherwise agreed by Hoya Topco and certain other voting agreements of Sponsor and Hoya Topco with respect to us.

Registration Rights Agreement

At the Closing, we, Sponsor and Hoya Topco amended and restated the Registration and Shareholder Rights Agreement, dated as of August 25, 2020, by and between Horizon and Sponsor. Pursuant to the Registration Rights Agreement, we agreed to file a registration statement for a shelf registration on Form S-1 or Form S-3 within 30 days following Closing and Sponsor and Hoya Topco will be granted certain customary registration rights with respect to our securities. "

I think that high volume day was the day of the Travis Scott concert news and LiveNation was facing lawsuits from the deaths in the concert which trickled down to SEAT.

[Mendota]

Anyone else following Bakkt (BKKT)? I don't know what to think about this one. Long term it seems like it has potential with close to 75% of the float owned by institutions, including ICE. Their trading app is getting great feedback and the partnerships they have entered into for offering loyalty rewards and points in crypto seem like they offer fantastic long term growth prospects. I entered a really small test position at $26.07 just to formally keep it on my radar and should have scalped it when it was in the 30s and 40s, but here we are. After the Q3 conference call this morning it's in the 24s. Once again, there's this issue with the warrants coming up next week. I don't know if I should pick up another small amount here at this level or just let things shake out until after we get past the next couple of weeks once the warrants are all exercised and then start building an actual position?

Rivian seems to be gaining nice momentum and having a good opening week. I like to wait a little while after an IPO gets going to see what happens but I am kind of wishing I would have executed the limit order I had in my trade window on Wednesday when it was around $100.

I haven't entered any positions in Sofi yet. Thinking about it though.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I think that high volume day was the day of the Travis Scott concert news and LiveNation was facing lawsuits from the deaths in the concert which trickled down to SEAT.

Makes sense. Weathering 6-7X avg daily thin volume only to have it go down $1 is a pretty good to me..

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Is there serious manipulation happening with BBIG? It will look like it may have a good day pre market and then it falls on its face. I thought the news that came out would boost it back up. Is everyone else still holding? I’m getting tired of my money tied up there and not being able to put it into more profitable areas.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

I bought more a couple days ago at $4.30 to average down. Holding and Im not expecting the stock to move up that much until closer to the TYDE dividend. Once it goes back up, I’ll unload my higher priced tax lots to free up some money.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

yikes paypal

A few CNBC pumps later and a base appears to have been formed.. My $200 leaps and shares are in the black. Will see where next week takes us..

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

A few CNBC pumps later and a base appears to have been formed.. My $200 leaps and shares are in the black. Will see where next week takes us..

i've got a ways to go still because i first bought some leaps at around 230. opened different ones after earnings and might add to them if we see it stabilize here. realistically not too worried about this one when looking at a 1-2 year time frame

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by huncho

i've got a ways to go still because i first bought some leaps at around 230. opened different ones after earnings and might add to them if we see it stabilize here. realistically not too worried about this one when looking at a 1-2 year time frame

That's why I generally prefer LEAPS to standard options. It just buys more time to be on the right side of the trade, whichever side that is! Sometimes it's fun to play with the really short term expiration ones, though, when you've got really high conviction...

[scarlet knight]

I enjoy Halftime Report on CNBC. Have you ever noticed that when a guest starts talking positively about a stock and the stock’s chart is posted, you can often see the stock going up. There seems like something fishy is going on, but maybe it’s just me.

[Xelorpepsi]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I don’t own MQ but friends and “twitter world” are talking about it. I think the lock-up expiration is coming up…

Personally, I’m about to start reading the Rivian S-1 about the lockup info.

There was a fairly big drop on Thursday in anticipation of the end of the restricted period on the 12th of November.

[Magnum75]

Q3 earnings are out for SEAT

"Third Quarter 2021 Financial Summary

Revenues of $139.5 million increased from negative $7.1 million in the third quarter of 2020Net loss of $1.8 million as compared to net loss of $40.2 million in the third quarter of 2020Marketplace Gross Order Value ("Marketplace GOV") of $713.1 million increased from negative $30.8 million in the third quarter 2020Adjusted EBITDA of $42.0 million increased from negative $19.5 million in the third quarter of 2020Highest single quarter results for Marketplace GOV, Revenues and Adjusted EBITDA in company history"

[zengineer]

Big drop in PSFE looks like a bit of an over-reaction to me. I loaded up at $4.36 and plan to just take a quick gain and be out by mid week.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[hkuo]

AUPH is a head scratcher for me and why it’s coming down.