Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by hkuo

AUPH is a head scratcher for me and why it’s coming down.

Most of retail was expecting BO announcement today from BMY as their investor conference is tomorrow. No news of BO is shaking out impatient retail to sell - especially since BMY did not deny BO but GSK did. Look at the outflow, it is mostly small trades selling and retail investors not willing to be patient. People forget how long an acquisition can take, nothing but time here. You have final A2 data around the corner and the cure to Lupus with 2037 patent protection. Also you have XBI getting beat down which isn't helping. The only downside would be if PG rejects BO offer for wanting more, that would cause further pressure in the stock. Personally I think there is a bidding war and fair value, if you think about ramp up to peak sales in a few years, should be $45-$50 without using too high of a multiple. Historically, BMY has been known to overpay. Sit tight, BO or not, I would and am averaging in every chance I can under $30. Conviction here is very high, given I rarely average up and am happy to sit into next year patiently waiting.

[chsu74]

^ added more AUPH shares today at $26.88

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Most of retail was expecting BO announcement today from BMY as their investor conference is tomorrow. No news of BO is shaking out impatient retail to sell - especially since BMY did not deny BO but GSK did. Look at the outflow, it is mostly small trades selling and retail investors not willing to be patient. People forget how long an acquisition can take, nothing but time here. You have final A2 data around the corner and the cure to Lupus with 2037 patent protection. Also you have XBI getting beat down which isn't helping. The only downside would be if PG rejects BO offer for wanting more, that would cause further pressure in the stock. Personally I think there is a bidding war and fair value, if you think about ramp up to peak sales in a few years, should be $45-$50 without using too high of a multiple. Historically, BMY has been known to overpay. Sit tight, BO or not, I would and am averaging in every chance I can under $30. Conviction here is very high, given I rarely average up and am happy to sit into next year patiently waiting.

Thanks for the insight! Bought more today as well

[7sins]

For those on the AUPH train, some great comments from the BMY investor day today, looks like a deal is definitely in the works based on a few of their comments and the CFO repeating over and over again their balance sheet strength for "bolt on acquisitions". Nice 4% bounce back today, albeit we are SSR today I believe. They also noted future Lupus rev but yet cancelled their Lupus trials, wonder where they can claim $1B in lupus rev... About as close as we can get without them outright saying they are buying AUPH. Market appears to be taking it as a positive.

Bristol Myers CEO looking for small, medium-sized deals - WSJ

Bristol Myers (NYSE:BMY) CEO Giovanni Caforio is looking for small and medium-sized deal similar to last year's
$13B
acquisition of MyoKardia.

The pharma company is focused on oncology, hematology, immunology and cardiovascular medicines, Caforio told the WSJ in an interview.

Last November, Bristol Myers completes acquisition of MyoKardia.

Recall last month Bloomberg reported that Bristol Myers indicated its interest in acquiring Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH), though no final decision has been made on a a bid. Aurinia shares gained 2.1% in trading this morning.

Aurinia Pharma is expected present at Jefferies London Healthcare conference this week and presentation will be available on Thursday.

[Mendota]

Listening to a great Podcast interview about options trading right now with Tom Sosnoff, who was a former CBOE floor trader and market maker. He founded Think or Swim and then sold it to TD Ameritrade for $750 million. He then founded Tastytrade and just sold that for $1billion.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0mw...QsOVuLO0UNEzXA

Key takeaway with options: trade small and trade often. He said he routinely places about 100 trades a day between tweaking current open trades, entering new ones, exiting others, etc. For him it's all about the probability and the math.

On the next episode they interview Kyle Bass, who was one of the hedge fund managers that Michael Lewis interviewed for The Big Short. That's a fantastic episode. Fascinating, too, because he talks a lot about what is going on over in China right now.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by Mendota

Listening to a great Podcast interview about options trading right now with Tom Sosnoff, who was a former CBOE floor trader and market maker. He founded Think or Swim and then sold it to TD Ameritrade for $750 million. He then founded Tastytrade and just sold that for $1billion.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0mw...QsOVuLO0UNEzXA

Key takeaway with options: trade small and trade often. He said he routinely places about 100 trades a day between tweaking current open trades, entering new ones, exiting others, etc. For him it's all about the probability and the math.

On the next episode they interview Kyle Bass, who was one of the hedge fund managers that Michael Lewis interviewed for The Big Short. That's a fantastic episode. Fascinating, too, because he talks a lot about what is going on over in China right now.

Thanks for the share.
If you use the Overcast app for podcasts, here’s the link.

https://overcast.fm/+I6zE6DTu4

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Mendota

Listening to a great Podcast interview about options trading right now with Tom Sosnoff, who was a former CBOE floor trader and market maker. He founded Think or Swim and then sold it to TD Ameritrade for $750 million. He then founded Tastytrade and just sold that for $1billion.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0mw...QsOVuLO0UNEzXA

Key takeaway with options: trade small and trade often. He said he routinely places about 100 trades a day between tweaking current open trades, entering new ones, exiting others, etc. For him it's all about the probability and the math.

On the next episode they interview Kyle Bass, who was one of the hedge fund managers that Michael Lewis interviewed for The Big Short. That's a fantastic episode. Fascinating, too, because he talks a lot about what is going on over in China right now.

thanks for this, will take a look sometime. i do feel like that probably applies to todays market more than usual because it seems like going long on a stock in the last 6 months is pretty tough. lot of swings back and forth while not actually making much overall progress which makes it really hard to make money with options unless you get in and out at the right times. obviously there are certain stocks that are up only (microsoft, nvidia, net lol) but for the most part a lot of sideways volatile trading

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by 7sins

For those on the AUPH train, some great comments from the BMY investor day today, looks like a deal is definitely in the works based on a few of their comments and the CFO repeating over and over again their balance sheet strength for "bolt on acquisitions". Nice 4% bounce back today, albeit we are SSR today I believe. They also noted future Lupus rev but yet cancelled their Lupus trials, wonder where they can claim $1B in lupus rev... About as close as we can get without them outright saying they are buying AUPH. Market appears to be taking it as a positive.

Bristol Myers CEO looking for small, medium-sized deals - WSJ

Bristol Myers (NYSE:BMY) CEO Giovanni Caforio is looking for small and medium-sized deal similar to last year's
$13B
acquisition of MyoKardia.

The pharma company is focused on oncology, hematology, immunology and cardiovascular medicines, Caforio told the WSJ in an interview.

Last November, Bristol Myers completes acquisition of MyoKardia.

Recall last month Bloomberg reported that Bristol Myers indicated its interest in acquiring Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AUPH), though no final decision has been made on a a bid. Aurinia shares gained 2.1% in trading this morning.

Aurinia Pharma is expected present at Jefferies London Healthcare conference this week and presentation will be available on Thursday.

Deal looks to be done. :)

https://streamable.com/5o2r4n

[jaisonline]

I’ve been high on LCID from early this year but even I thought the price in the $40s was silly. Prices in the $50s are just nutty. Nutty as in 1998 dot com-like. No rhyme or reason outside. If folks haven’t trimmed already or sold covered calls if long… then again, I thought this way around $36.


Regardless, this rapid beast-like “blast off to the moon” since last month caught me way off guard.
I trimmed way too early in hindsight especially my Jan 21 2020 $24 and $35 calls.
Live and learn.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I’ve been high on LCID from early this year but even I thought the price in the $40s was silly. Prices in the $50s are just nutty. Nutty as in 1998 dot com-like. No rhyme or reason outside. If folks haven’t trimmed already or sold covered calls if long… then again, I thought this way around $36.


Regardless, this rapid beast-like “blast off to the moon” since last month caught me way off guard.
I trimmed way too early in hindsight especially my Jan 21 2020 $24 and $35 calls.
Live and learn.

I had 50% covered calls at $26 selling of $27.xx and sold balance open longs at $37.44. How one defines this risk below is to each person..



Hindsight 20/20 but sticking to being disciplined with no regrets. Any profitable trade is a good trade. There will be other opportunities..

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by chsu74

I had 50% covered calls at $26 selling of $27.xx and sold balance open longs at $37.44. How one defines this risk below is to each person..



Hindsight 20/20 but sticking to being disciplined with no regrets. Any profitable trade is a good trade. There will be other opportunities..

Totally agree. Definitely feels much better realizing a profit than a loss.

At one point my 2 Jan 21, 2022 call option contracts were -75% but I had faith & believed in my DD work so kept adding to lower the cost basis. It def worked out in the long run.

From this experience, it did teach me about more selling covered calls each month for my “long” positions. I did that with my remaining LCID shares and that’s definitely working out. Just can’t be married to a stock :)

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by Mendota

Listening to a great Podcast interview about options trading right now with Tom Sosnoff, who was a former CBOE floor trader and market maker. He founded Think or Swim and then sold it to TD Ameritrade for $750 million. He then founded Tastytrade and just sold that for $1billion.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/0mw...QsOVuLO0UNEzXA

Key takeaway with options: trade small and trade often. He said he routinely places about 100 trades a day between tweaking current open trades, entering new ones, exiting others, etc. For him it's all about the probability and the math.

On the next episode they interview Kyle Bass, who was one of the hedge fund managers that Michael Lewis interviewed for The Big Short. That's a fantastic episode. Fascinating, too, because he talks a lot about what is going on over in China right now.

His tax return must look like an encyclopedia.

[scarlet knight]

I own MA, V and PYPL. They have done poorly recently. Any ideas why? Are they seen as legacy players compared to SQ, SOFI,etc.?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I own MA, V and PYPL. They have done poorly recently. Any ideas why? Are they seen as legacy players compared to SQ, SOFI,etc.?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/visa-...150202053.html

amazon to stop accepting visa credit cards in the uk. from my understanding debit cards are still accepted though, so wonder how much of an impact this will actually have on visa. mastercard fees are the same as well so seems like amazon has a different reason behind the scenes

i started a position in visa today though. it's still the dominant card company and this is just amazon uk, so feel like it's not a reason to panic yet

[chsu74]

@huncho VIAC AH looking good. Hope you did not sell and this is the beginning of recognition it deserves finally. No wonder Bob and Shari bought recently..

https://twitter.com/faststocknewss/s...219334145?s=21

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

@huncho VIAC AH looking good. Hope you did not sell and this is the beginning of recognition it deserves finally. No wonder Bob and Shari bought recently..

https://twitter.com/faststocknewss/s...219334145?s=21

yeah still in, i hope this starts up some movement because at this point i'm like -70%. biggest mystery stock to me still. worst part is i think the biggest reason for being down so much is just the IV, just need some kind of price action here

[2bigalow]

Nice little bump on Coty over the last week. What the heck is going on with Sabre? Bookings are up across the board.. Makes no sense.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah still in, i hope this starts up some movement because at this point i'm like -70%. biggest mystery stock to me still. worst part is i think the biggest reason for being down so much is just the IV, just need some kind of price action here

Yeah. My $45 leaps are down 70%. Have been trading in and out of the shares so only 10% down but have been supplementing with collecting call and put premiums.

One million subscribers in a week is newsworthy and the viewing engagement hours are noteworthy as well..

[7sins]

Heck of a day for those of us in AUPH, hope you boys averaged in on that dip to $27 I pointed out, now back to $30 AH today in 2 days. Days away for the full A2 data.

Originally Posted by 2bigalow

Nice little bump on Coty over the last week. What the heck is going on with Sabre? Bookings are up across the board.. Makes no sense.

All of the travel sector is getting beat down. Sabr is no exception. This is simply for the fear of another COVID wave as cases in Europe are spiking. Absolutely absurd here under $9, I have been adding aggressively on 2024 $8C which is a 2 year runway that I scored for $3 today, that is a BE at $11. INSANE. That was the price just recently. Patience will pay, just need covid to finally wane, easily 2-3x your money in the long run. Just my .02 and not financial advice but I am not concerned in the slightest while it is really my only kick to the balls trade this year beside TAK (thanks Cathy) and UP.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput TSA numbers look great, many days over 2M which is getting close to precovid levels. Already talks that Thanksgiving travel will be the busiest in history. The only thing that will slow this down is if we see another severe covid wave. Otherwise we are getting close to peak covid levels under $9.

[CoveWatch]

Hey everyone, got an interesting play to share especially on the heels of some recent successful Spac mergers of quality companies.

Trebia Acq. Corp is taking System1, a customer acquisition marketing platform, public at a $1.4b EV, announced earlier this year. What is unique in this deal than any other spac deal is that Foley's other company, Cannae, will provide a $200m backstop against any potential redemptions with Bofa essentially backstopping the rest. Shows some confidence when the sponsors are willing to pick up any shares that get redeemed at merger.

While the backstop is nice, lets get to the meat of why I like this deal. System1 has raised guidance on current year revenue twice already (9/23/2021 and recently 11/05/2021 at their preliminary q3 er) and while the raises are minimal, its always nice to see confirmed growth. Additionally, unlike many other deals today, they are EBITDA positive and actually make money! Here is their latest updated investor deck.
https://s27.q4cdn.com/320020032/file...ion_vFinal.pdf

At $805m in revenue this year and EBITDA of $111m, we're looking at a multiple of 1.75x P/S to EV or 12.6x current year EBITDA. Top this off with a company thats shown consistent 30-35% growth in previous years in both and projecting to continue, seems like a very good deal to me.

Here is their latest analyst day transcript, a good read to get a feel of the company and its people.
https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-323321/

Would love some feedback, but I'm currently in the warrants and been adding daily and plan to continue adding. Merger is planned for q4 of this year and original proxy for merger was submitted 9/16 with what I assume to be an amended s-4 submitted earlier this month.

[logo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Heck of a day for those of us in AUPH, hope you boys averaged in on that dip to $27 I pointed out, now back to $30 AH today in 2 days. Days away for the full A2 data.




All of the travel sector is getting beat down. Sabr is no exception. This is simply for the fear of another COVID wave as cases in Europe are spiking. Absolutely absurd here under $9, I have been adding aggressively on 2024 $8C which is a 2 year runway that I scored for $3 today, that is a BE at $11. INSANE. That was the price just recently. Patience will pay, just need covid to finally wane, easily 2-3x your money in the long run. Just my .02 and not financial advice but I am not concerned in the slightest while it is really my only kick to the balls trade this year beside TAK (thanks Cathy) and UP.

https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput TSA numbers look great, many days over 2M which is getting close to precovid levels. Already talks that Thanksgiving travel will be the busiest in history. The only thing that will slow this down is if we see another severe covid wave. Otherwise we are getting close to peak covid levels under $9.

Sweet deal on the 2024s. I’m still averaging down on the 2023s for now, hoping to see a quick rebound in the coming weeks with thanksgiving and Christmas travel and if that fails then rolling to 2024 at a lower strike in early 2022.

Same plan for COTY still - hoping for a big investor day then trimming and rolling.

Also, I must own the UP trade - that one’s my bad. They currently have the same market cap as annual revenue which is insane, and I do still think this one is long term a winner, but sucks in the meantime.

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by chsu74

One million subscribers in a week is newsworthy and the viewing engagement hours are noteworthy

So here's the deal with that. It's all due to the premiere of Yellowstone two weekends ago. That sounds nice but they completely effed it up, to epic proportions.

First of all, viewers who signed up for Paramount+, myself included, learned that we can't actually watch the new season on Paramount+. You have to watch it on the actual Paramount Network website, through your cable provider.

Viacom and Comcast/Xfinity are engaged in a pissing match over something, so those subscribers are blocked from gaining access to the Paramount Network website.

The only way to view the new season for Comcast/Xfinity subscribers is to either watch it through your cable box on your Paramount channel, or just say the hell with it and buy the season on Google/Apple/Amazon/YouTube, etc.

The 3rd way is to subscribe to Hulu+ or another premium service.

I said the hell with it and just bought the whole season for $14.99. Done, no commercials, no BS.

Long story short, don't count on those subscriber numbers lasting through next quarter. Most are already pissed off or will soon be and will cancel. The ones who stick it out will cancel after the end of Yellowstone in January.

Just my two cents. This is a classic Peter Lynch style opportunity to peel back the onion, ignore the analyst noise, and actually see for yourself as a customer how good or poor the service or product is. Great series, absolute shitty delivery. The free episode on their website was glitchy, buffered, and full of commercials. I'm not the only end user who has completely bypassed them all together and just purchased the season outright.

Sent from my SM-G986U using Tapatalk

[scarlet knight]

Does anyone own the ev auto stocks? Rivn, Lcid, Tsla, Gm, F. Thoughts?

[RidingDonkeys]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Does anyone own the ev auto stocks? Rivn, Lcid, Tsla, Gm, F. Thoughts?

I think they're all overvalued right now. I got in on the IPO for Rivian. I have no desire to buy more at these prices. I like Lucid, but I'm in at $40 and won't buy more until it gets back to that level. I do think they'll increase when they start delivering cars.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Sweet deal on the 2024s. I’m still averaging down on the 2023s for now, hoping to see a quick rebound in the coming weeks with thanksgiving and Christmas travel and if that fails then rolling to 2024 at a lower strike in early 2022.

Same plan for COTY still - hoping for a big investor day then trimming and rolling.

Also, I must own the UP trade - that one’s my bad. They currently have the same market cap as annual revenue which is insane, and I do still think this one is long term a winner, but sucks in the meantime.

i don't think anyone will fault you for it tbh. we all know nothing here is posted as something certain and we get in at our own discretion. when you brought it up i got in but only on options with an expiry of a month away to play the merger news so i managed to get out during the ceo interview on cnbc with some great gains, so i definitely can't fault you. too bad i took those profits and i'm now holding bags with them on other stuff but that's another story lol

[chsu74]

+1. This is a platform where we come and share ideas. Thank you for sharing UP. I bought shares and will ride it out hoping it will compete effectively with NetJets and the like. We need to win more than we miss at the end of the day and this thread is performing.

Originally Posted by huncho

i don't think anyone will fault you for it tbh. we all know nothing here is posted as something certain and we get in at our own discretion. when you brought it up i got in but only on options with an expiry of a month away to play the merger news so i managed to get out during the ceo interview on cnbc with some great gains. too bad i took those profits and i'm now holding bags with them but that's another story lol

Originally Posted by logo

Also, I must own the UP trade - that one’s my bad. They currently have the same market cap as annual revenue which is insane, and I do still think this one is long term a winner, but sucks in the meantime.

[jaisonline]

Starting to read more details about SEAT / Vivid Seats PIPE from the latest S-1. Not sure if I’m as worried as before about lockup expirations but need to do my due diligence

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Does anyone own the ev auto stocks? Rivn, Lcid, Tsla, Gm, F. Thoughts?

I’ve held Ford for about 3 yrs. I just bought more this morning. Probably won’t be selling anytime soon as it’s the safe part of my portfolio.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[7sins]

Originally Posted by logo

Sweet deal on the 2024s. I’m still averaging down on the 2023s for now, hoping to see a quick rebound in the coming weeks with thanksgiving and Christmas travel and if that fails then rolling to 2024 at a lower strike in early 2022.

Same plan for COTY still - hoping for a big investor day then trimming and rolling.

Also, I must own the UP trade - that one’s my bad. They currently have the same market cap as annual revenue which is insane, and I do still think this one is long term a winner, but sucks in the meantime.

No need to ever apologize! We all do our own due diligence and invest at our own risk. I enjoy all of us investing together, makes it a lot more fun. My apologies, that was not my intention to come across that way, was just eluding to SABR not being my lone red ranger.

Speaking of which, are you rolling your options here on UP? I am slightly bewildered here on this slide down to $5 after clearing a billion on the last ER. Slightly concerned their EBITDA loss was that much higher with member and revenue at record increases. I think worth at least holding until next ER, seems a steal here at $5? jan 2024 $5c is only 2.40

[7sins]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

Hey everyone, got an interesting play to share especially on the heels of some recent successful Spac mergers of quality companies.

Trebia Acq. Corp is taking System1, a customer acquisition marketing platform, public at a $1.4b EV, announced earlier this year. What is unique in this deal than any other spac deal is that Foley's other company, Cannae, will provide a $200m backstop against any potential redemptions with Bofa essentially backstopping the rest. Shows some confidence when the sponsors are willing to pick up any shares that get redeemed at merger.

While the backstop is nice, lets get to the meat of why I like this deal. System1 has raised guidance on current year revenue twice already (9/23/2021 and recently 11/05/2021 at their preliminary q3 er) and while the raises are minimal, its always nice to see confirmed growth. Additionally, unlike many other deals today, they are EBITDA positive and actually make money! Here is their latest updated investor deck.
https://s27.q4cdn.com/320020032/file...ion_vFinal.pdf

At $805m in revenue this year and EBITDA of $111m, we're looking at a multiple of 1.75x P/S to EV or 12.6x current year EBITDA. Top this off with a company thats shown consistent 30-35% growth in previous years in both and projecting to continue, seems like a very good deal to me.

Here is their latest analyst day transcript, a good read to get a feel of the company and its people.
https://sec.report/Document/0001193125-21-323321/

Would love some feedback, but I'm currently in the warrants and been adding daily and plan to continue adding. Merger is planned for q4 of this year and original proxy for merger was submitted 9/16 with what I assume to be an amended s-4 submitted earlier this month.

Few additional thoughts here on TREB-WT as I have been a big buyer here on these warrants sub $1.70, avg in at 1.62 and my second largest warrant holding behind SEAT. Also have spent a ton of time researching this position and this is a hidden gem. I would be VERY CAREFUL here as liquidity is incredibly low on warrants, there were several days I was 90% of the volume. DO NOT use market order here, I found putting in a limit order under the bid, letting it sit for a few hours often gets executed.

I posted the slides that I think are most important here (went with a little crazy with the highlighter), I would also note that they RAISED guidance THREE times this year, EBITDA positive with significant growth. Do I think it runs to $30? No. Well not immediately de-spac anyways. I believe firmly here you have very limited downside with warrants at $1.70, ebitda positive, spac owner backing and substantial growth (esp with international YoY growth focus).