Prices slump by up to 50% for discontinued Rolex watches (Watchpro)

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Ok I’ll concede my last point, that watchcharts is “garbage.” But that doesn’t diminish my first point: there is a strong correlation between crypto/stock market and Rolex prices. And the former has just reversed trends.

Not really. Many market bull runs, and only 1 had coincided with a meteoric rise in watch prices.

Also, we are going on the 4th straight week of gains in the S&P. Watch prices have continued to fall in this time.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by askdanny

Ok I’ll concede my last point, that watchcharts is “garbage.” But that doesn’t diminish my first point: there is a strong correlation between crypto/stock market and Rolex prices. And the former has just reversed trends.

It is only a bear market rally. (In 2001, there where 7 rallies before we touched the bottom. https://twitter.com/BurryArchive/sta...477952/photo/1 )

Wait for this autumn... Between the China economy falling (credit crunch contamination, real estate, etc), the 20th Party Congress in nov, Chinese CCP pressure on luxury goods, global rising interest rates (Lawrence Summers keeps repeating/preparing the market: you do not stop taking antibiotics when you start to feel good otherwise the decease will be stronger, you continue till the end of the prescription), debt servicing cost (companies, weak countries, people, etc), inflation, winter in Europe, end of free money, etc.

I am not that positive for a long time...

We lived a period which was an anomaly in the watch history. Normality is when you buy a watch from an AD and take a -20% hit (like cars). Then the market value will appreciate each each very slowly. Buying from an AD and making an instant +200% is not healthy. Let's keep that as a story we will tell our grand children.

Make your bets.

I bet on a future healthier watch market (back to pre-2016?).

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

I bet on a future healthier watch market (back to pre-2016?).

I don't see 2016.

Rolex's global and free marketing agency called "Instagram" is too formidable.

Add that to the plethora of Youtubers, reviewers, dealers who film themselves -- and online magazines that weren't as huge six years ago. Hodinkee now has $40 million in investment capital and high-profile investors like Tom Brady. (Granted, Hodinkee is not a Rolex dealers, but it does nurture the love for and relevancy of mechanical watches while Rolex is still the most reputable company in the world.)

The watch market didn't temporarily change; it has seen a permanent transformation.

[soicanbefree]

Originally Posted by askdanny

I don't see 2016.

Rolex's global and free marketing agency called "Instagram" is too formidable.

Add that to the plethora of Youtubers, reviewers, dealers who film themselves -- and online magazines that weren't as huge six years ago. Hodinkee now has $40 million in investment capital and high-profile investors like Tom Brady. (Granted, Hodinkee is not a Rolex dealers, but it does nurture the love for and relevancy of mechanical watches while Rolex is still the most reputable company in the world.)

The watch market didn't temporarily change; it has seen a permanent transformation.

I'm looking for 2019 pricing and dynamics.

ADs have pieces. Only a few are hot / allocation.

You can walk in and get a Sub, GMT, 2 tone anything.

[trojanrolex]

15450ST (White) just sold for 26.2

[huncho]

Originally Posted by trojanrolex

15450ST (White) just sold for 26.2

that's crazy, 15550st is 24k so basically msrp+tax. i find it hard to believe prices stay there considering it's discontinued and a 15550st isn't exactly easy to get...was it new or used?

[trojanrolex]

Originally Posted by huncho

that's crazy, basically msrp+tax. i find it hard to believe prices stay there considering it's discontinued and a 15550st isn't exactly easy to get...was it new or used?

Used. To be honest AP's have historically always traded under retail. It's only been the last 2 years where they've been this hyped up.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by huncho

that's crazy, 15550st is 24k so basically msrp+tax. i find it hard to believe prices stay there considering it's discontinued and a 15550st isn't exactly easy to get...was it new or used?

I wouldn't be surprised by 15450 dropping more than other ROs with 15550 being the thinner and better proportioned watch.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by ts3

I wouldn't be surprised by 15450 dropping more than other ROs with 15550 being the thinner and better proportioned watch.

well proportions aside the 550 is a 50th anniversary so pretty much impossible for new customers to get. i don't see the 450 having enough of a difference or lack of preference (from the threads here) for it to trade at a giant discount. visually they're almost the same watch until you hold them side by side, excluding the caseback obviously. i think one market is wrong, either the grey market isn't done force selling or the retail market is lagging very far behind and these watches will be easily obtainable soon. for now though, they're not, so it leads me to believe the prices go back up eventually

that's just my feeling

[trojanrolex]

Originally Posted by huncho

well proportions aside the 550 is a 50th anniversary so pretty much impossible for new customers to get. i don't see the 450 having enough of a difference or lack of preference (from the threads here) for it to trade at a giant discount. visually they're almost the same watch until you hold them side by side, excluding the caseback obviously. i think one market is wrong, either the grey market isn't done force selling or the retail market is lagging very far behind and these watches will be easily obtainable soon. for now though, they're not, so it leads me to believe the prices go back up eventually

that's just my feeling

15550st will continue to be made. Unless you're some avid collector I don't see why most people will pay a premium to say they have the "50th anniversary" edition.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by trojanrolex

15550st will continue to be made. Unless you're some avid collector I don't see why most people will pay a premium to say they have the "50th anniversary" edition.

yeah that was my point. for now it's a 50th anniversary but is the 15550 gonna create that much of a preference vs the 15450? i guess it remains to be seen but from what i've read here people weren't really leaning towards one or the other in terms of the changes introduced. it's kind of like the 40 vs 41mm subs that traded at very similar price points despite some minor visual changes

i guess 15500s were fetching higher premiums than 15400s for very minor changes so i could be wrong

[honuswagner13]

Brand new White gold green DD $45,900 on Moda.
Close to msrp!!!

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

Brand new White gold green DD $45,900 on Moda.
Close to msrp!!!

There's actually 2 on there right now in that ballpark. I'm still waiting on one at AD and for what. (Relationship credit only)

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by EEpro

There's actually 2 on there right now in that ballpark. I'm still waiting on one at AD and for what. (Relationship credit only)

that's the phenomenon I don't get... all these watches now trading for MSRP on gray market, and all brand new unworn... yet, NONE at the AD...

who's making money on this? I mean you buy from AD at MSRP+Tax then turn around and flip to dealer for what? how's there a profit in selling this at below MSRP+Tax?

[Mathematoxic]

ADs have the stocks. They just kept them as the carrot for customers to buy jewellery or less desired watches. Too many examples of watches suddenly appearing after the customer bought something from an AD

[DJ4]

prices continue to drop... at c24 AP 15510 black/grey offers are now at 59k down from 65k, at moda it's around 40-45k moving...

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Mathematoxic

ADs have the stocks. They just kept them as the carrot for customers to buy jewellery or less desired watches. Too many examples of watches suddenly appearing after the customer bought something from an AD

meanwhile that customer can likely buy that same watch at the gray market and at the same or even lower price if you exclude tax, and NOT spend money on random useless jewelry.... so back to my question.. in a functional market, how can anyone make money selling new watches in the gray market at below MSRP+Tax?

[Bstewart]

Originally Posted by HAL330

that's the phenomenon I don't get... all these watches now trading for MSRP on gray market, and all brand new unworn... yet, NONE at the AD...

who's making money on this? I mean you buy from AD at MSRP+Tax then turn around and flip to dealer for what? how's there a profit in selling this at below MSRP+Tax?

A lot of it is built up inventory. And a lot of ppl are willing to take a $$$ hit o get their spend history up.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

A lot of it is built up inventory. And a lot of ppl are willing to take a $$$ hit o get their spend history up.

that's literally the only thing that makes sense... Like I said a couple of weeks ago ... there is a glut of supply and a drop in demand.. the combination is a toxic mix for sellers and a fancy cocktail for buyers .. but I can't see it lasting after the inventory is gone...

the AD's will still be tight AF, and putting people on waiting lists..

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Bstewart

A lot of it is built up inventory. And a lot of ppl are willing to take a $$$ hit o get their spend history up.

Yes I agree. Flippers/dealers realising some models are stucked so they start to sell at or close to MSRP.
ADs being ADs, they will hold their fort as long as they can. They know these are Veblen goods. The more expensive they are, the more they are sought after. And scarcity is the only way to drive prices up/a bait to sell undesired stuffs to customers.

I do think Daytona/Pepsi will still trade above MSRP in the long term. PM Daytonas too. Seems like more people are moving their preferences to PM watches if affordability is not an issue. For myself I am not keen on steel watches. It’s either a two tone or full yellow gold one.

[Vince_76]

A lot of big drops in prices this week.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

A lot of big drops in prices this week.

always happens that way... as desperate sellers get more desperate (sell at a big loss, or BK)..


There's a 126619LB on Chrono24 now at $38,995 ... close to 2K Below MSRP... claimed to be a new 2021 (I always doubt when it's new but over a year old, probably a worn re-polish), but still... meanwhile the rest are between $42-44K

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by HAL330

always happens that way... as desperate sellers get more desperate (sell at a big loss, or BK)..


There's a 126619LB on Chrono24 now at $38,995 ... close to 2K Below MSRP... claimed to be a new 2021 (I always doubt when it's new but over a year old, probably a worn re-polish), but still... meanwhile the rest are between $42-44K

Yeah. I would be hesitant though, to think that these prices are near the bottom just due to liquidation by a few players. Most greys have just held inventory/prices and stayed afloat, so there is either more downward pressure to come via liquidations, or it may never come (unlikely). Even if major fire sales don’t happen, it is still very possible that we will see a gradual decline as the economy slows / QT takes place / interest rates rise.

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

Yeah. I would be hesitant though, to think that these prices are near the bottom just due to liquidation by a few players. Most greys have just held inventory/prices and stayed afloat, so there is either more downward pressure to come via liquidations, or it may never come (unlikely). Even if major fire sales don’t happen, it is still very possible that we will see a gradual decline as the economy slows / QT takes place / interest rates rise.

I'm more bullish on the soft landing economic turn scenario ... my reasoning is simple, in November the R's will take over congress, and gridlock will ensue, which the broader market will love... energy is already coming back down to earth, and mortgage rates are holding, despite two rate hikes by the fed.. so as long as unemployment holds (as it has been), we'll see a uptick in economic activity by early 2023 as Biden becomes a lame duck..

This barring China starting a nuclear war, or some other catastrophic event..

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by HAL330

I'm more bullish on the soft landing economic turn scenario ... my reasoning is simple, in November the R's will take over congress, and gridlock will ensue, which the broader market will love... energy is already coming back down to earth, and mortgage rates are holding, despite two rate hikes by the fed.. so as long as unemployment holds (as it has been), we'll see a uptick in economic activity by early 2023 as Biden becomes a lame duck..

This barring China starting a nuclear war, or some other catastrophic event..

It will be interesting. I must say I am more pessimistic. To your points:

Congressional Composure: markets are far more sensitive to changes in the executive branch than its legislative counterpart. There may be a marginal benefit here, but I doubt it’ll move the needle significantly

Inflation: what matters is the spread between the inflation rate and real rates. Even if you strip out energy and look at core inflation, we’re close to 6%. This is well above real rates and does not bode well for any prospect of inflation being short lived

Mortgage rates: even if they do hold, real estate is a lagging economic indicator to rates and the housing market has not yet adjusted to today’s rates (e.g, cost of ownership is still exorbitantly higher than in February).

Unemployment: as the economy softens, and if the Fed continues to raise rate, we’ll see higher unemployment prints

[HAL330]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

It will be interesting. I must say I am more pessimistic. To your points:

Congressional Composure: markets are far more sensitive to changes in the executive branch than its legislative counterpart. There may be a marginal benefit here, but I doubt it’ll move the needle significantly

Inflation: what matters is the spread between the inflation rate and real rates. Even if you strip out energy and look at cote inflation, we’re close to 6%. This is well above real rates and does not bode well for any prospect of inflation being short lived

Mortgage rates: even if they do hold, real estate is a lagging economic indicator to rates and the housing market has not yet adjusted to today’s rates (e.g, cost of ownership is still exorbitantly higher than in February).

Unemployment: as the economy softens, and if the Fed continues to raise rate, we’ll see higher unemployment prints

your scenario is indeed viable... and I agree, the elephant in the living room is inflation.. my pilot union right now is negotiating a 25% immediate pay increase to offset inflation since our 2017 contract... the UPS pilot union just successfully got this .. and I understand how these rising wages can only fuel inflation.. this will have to sort itself out as demand for goods and labor equalizes with supply and supply chain...

Can we all say China! Our dependency on them is unhealthy (I've been saying this since the 1990's)... maybe sometime we'll get it and do something about it.

[Mifune]

Originally Posted by Vince_76

A lot of big drops in prices this week.

Still looking for blro

[Laostuh]

Yep, prices are slowly coming down. You have batmans sitting unsold at $17-18k on Moda, baugette dial Day Date 40 for about MSRP. Olive Dial Day Dates for the $45k range.

[Doc Savage]

Still waiting for several SS sport models to get closer to retail before I buy. I don't know if they'll get all the way, but I think there's still more to fall over the next few months. I'm happy to wait on the sidelines until then.

[soicanbefree]

Full golds seems to be cratering. Seen some bigggggggggggggg drops here this week.

Steel falling slowly. No dramatic or interesting moves this week. Flat to slightly down.