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#8851 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: In the air
Posts: 702
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DKNG looks very good at the current price...got out of my Apple may make the swap.
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#8852 | |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Yeah. I thought the same at $33, $30, $29 and $28. Not sure anymore as we need 1 or 2 things to happen. 1) Jim Chanos needs to publicly state he’s no longer short. 2) DKNG kills it this quarter and 2021 calendar year. It wouldn’t hurt if they slightly decreased user acquisition costs but I doubt they will. Do do think there will be at least 1 merger / acquisition in 2021 with all these companies. I know DIS wants in and SEAH (Sport Group) wants to de-spac. Personally, I will never reduce my Apple and Amazon positions in the foreseeable future. |
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#8853 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,786
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Quote:
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#8854 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Oct 2011
Real Name: Seth
Location: nj
Watch: Omega
Posts: 24,858
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I got crushed the last two days as well. But I am a very passive trader in that my FA takes care of it. I do watch closely as to what he is doing though, and I need to stop.
It is driving me nuts. Thankfully, I have a decent amount of dry powder and I keep enough liquid personally that it helps me sleep at night. I think it is going to get worse before it gets better. And I think any recovery, when it actually happens, will take a long a$$ time. The Ninja says, just invest in microscoft and apple. Starting to make more and more sense.
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If happiness is a state of mind, why look anywhere else for it? IG: gsmotorclub IG: thesawcollection (Both mostly just car stuff) |
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#8855 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,786
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Quote:
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#8856 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Real Name: Goat
Location: Southwest Florida
Watch: 16613
Posts: 5,717
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I sold all of my Ford this morning. Now only holding BBIG. Thinking I’m just going to step away from the table for a while and hopefully get my TYDE and recoup a little cash in the next few months.
Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product |
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#8857 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Jun 2020
Real Name: Goat
Location: Southwest Florida
Watch: 16613
Posts: 5,717
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Quote:
I’ve got my Ford cash just sitting now, I think it needs a break. That said, the right opportunity presents itself I may throw it all in to AUPH. Heard anything else regarding B/O? Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product |
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#8858 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2019
Location: North America
Posts: 2,368
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Looking like a clean SPY bounce off the 50d MA of 466. Hope it holds.
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#8859 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,786
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DraftKings got approval for sports betting in NY
"The Gaming Commission said four licensed Mobile Sports Wagering Operators — Caesars Sportsbook, DraftKings, FanDuel, and Rush Street Interactive — have been approved to accept sports bets after 9 a.m. Saturday." https://nypost.com/2022/01/06/mobile...k-on-saturday/ |
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#8860 | |
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: USA
Watch: 5 digit models
Posts: 1,516
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Quote:
Good news for the stock. Not sure how much money they will make from NY though. NY gets 51% of revenue right off the bat. RSI prob becomes even a larger takeover target now. |
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#8861 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,674
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Quote:
It has been eerily quiet from AUPH management, not a peep, perhaps due to current negotiations. Nothing new from Bloomberg or Betaville on updated BO rumors, the silence I think is causing the low volume and pullback here as BO hopes dissipate from impatient retail investors. Look under the hood at L2 data and you can see the manipulation with order flow. Important to note next week is the JMP biotech conference, the biggest biotech conference of the year. Should see some deals announced at the conference this week, BMY and NVS I believe both speak Monday, that should gives us a bit more insight into their bolt-on acquisition plan. More importantly, AUPH presents Thursday at 9:45AM and we should see the complete A2 data along with I presume a script update. Closed below $19 today, I have been trimming other positions to keep adding here and LABU as they pullback. I try to add most days it is down, it is one of very few positions I have ever let break my max 10% allocation rule. Mansion or shack I suppose. Hope everyone has a great weekend! Cheers to hopefully greener days next week. ![]()
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#8862 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
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Quote:
Further: PFE CEO appears to have alluded to AUPH yesterday during Goldman Sachs Healthcare conference. Point is that AUPH is on everyone’s radar. Which BP is going to blink first and have a risk less solution to their patent cliff revenue problem? https://s28.q4cdn.com/781576035/file...2022-01-06.pdf Pg 8 ![]() |
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#8863 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2013
Real Name: Kevin
Location: Cape Cod
Watch: Submariner 114060
Posts: 1,987
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I'm long with AUPH and been looking at the Cash Flow statement and it looks pretty dismal. Is the company at a point where they need someone to buy them or else, or is this a normal look for a small cap biotech just getting going. I don't have much experience around them and wondering what you guys think.
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#8864 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,674
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Quote:
The company was designed to be bought-out and that is exactly what the current CEO was brought on to do, the only question is what number is the BOD willing to except. Or they GIA and over the next few years and the stock could grow to a much higher valuation than what a BO multiple would offer today. Lets not forget, look at the balance sheet, they have $398M in cash which would go several years at their current burn-rate with the optionality of an ATM shelf should they need further funding. They will become the Standard of Care, EU approval pending, no competitor, increasing scripts numbers and absolutely stellar A2 data. Don't get me wrong, biotech investing is not for the faint of heart but I do not see many other derisked opportunities like this in the biotech market which has been systemically selling off the last year. Those who are patient will be rewarded here. That or we will have to do our Vegas trip in RENO instead ![]() Just my .02, not financial advice, do your own DD etc etc
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#8865 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
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Talking Stocks 2.0
Quote:
You are not wrong that their cash flow statement is something to be concerned with if you haven’t followed the company. The P/S is scary to be frank from an outsider’s perspective. Their drug was approved by FDA 1st qtr 2021 and started commercializing it. Their ‘21: Q1 sales was $0.9 mil Q2 sales was $6.6 mil Q3 sales was $14.7 mil Q4 sales est $40-50 mil Company burns around $35-$50 mil per qtr and they have $300 mil+ in cash. There is a payment of $50 mil royalty payment expected Q2 ‘22 from Otsuka for International sales. Royalty payment will increase as approval from EMA(European Medical Agency) for EU sales is expected this year and selling market expands. All this means they no longer have to dilute share value with more offerings. Share price valuation is calculated with potential annual peak sales. 20% market penetration is valued at $1 billion with $65K per patient revenue annually. The pricing of $65K per patient comes from kidney dialysis cost of $90K/yr which is the next step if LN worsens. People believe big pharmas can penetrate the market further thus using $2-3 B as annual peak sales potential due to lack of competition and the drug becoming the standard of care to treat LN. There is approx 150 mil shares outstanding if you account for warrants and potential options awards if company sells. Sale of company at 4X annual peak sales gives you a potential share buyout price of $4-12 B($4B/.155($25/share) - $12B/.155($77/share.)) Hope this helps |
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#8866 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2015
Real Name: BMF
Location: Tennessee USA
Watch: FPJ UTC
Posts: 2,271
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I'm a believer in AUPH but traded out a little ways back. Look into BCRX at these levels if you're looking to speculate a bit in biotech. Much better risk/reward imo.
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#8867 | ||
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2013
Real Name: Kevin
Location: Cape Cod
Watch: Submariner 114060
Posts: 1,987
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Quote:
Quote:
It was a pleasure reading your comments. Thanks for taking the time. Always a great education. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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#8868 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Mar 2013
Real Name: Kevin
Location: Cape Cod
Watch: Submariner 114060
Posts: 1,987
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I'm glad they have cash available to them. I looked at it earlier on their balance sheet but it didn't ring a bell as being available to cover them for a longer period of time.
And it did seem as though they were printing stock shares like it was confetti for a bit, so I'm glad it looks like they won't need to do that again for the immediate future. Thanks again |
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#8869 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,674
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Great article in Barron's this weekend on biotech, worth the two minute read, similar to what I have been posting on Bio the last few weeks. Notably: "The selloff has more than 70 biotech companies with more cash than their combined equity and debt".
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#8870 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2015
Real Name: BMF
Location: Tennessee USA
Watch: FPJ UTC
Posts: 2,271
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Thanks for sharing sins, I'm ready to pitch back in to some of the same names we've already covered and other new ones so appreciate all that you provide here!
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#8871 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,674
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Quote:
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#8872 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,674
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Last post for this weekend I promise, but great article published this weekend discussing the positive prospects for biotech in 2022, a lot of which confirming my thesis from a few pages back along with some great additional data points.
10 Reasons Why Biotech Could Be the Hottest Sector in 2022 Jan 6 Written By David Stone Biotech was one of the worst-performing sectors last year, but it might be the top-performing sector in 2022. Here are 10 reasons why. 1. Big pharma is flush with cash. Not only do large pharma companies like Pfizer, Merck, and Roche have a combined trillion dollars in market cap available to issue shares, they’re flush with money from selling vaccines, treatments, and other Covid-19 related products. Big pharma is sitting on a dragon’s hoard of cash. They could buy up any small or micro-cap company they wanted. Think about your own personal finances. Imagine the mindset of walking around an electronics store when you’re broke. Everything seems expensive. It would be foolish to upgrade even your toaster. Now imagine it’s Christmas and someone just gave you a million dollars in tax-free cash. How’s that 65-inch 8K TV looking now? Like pocket change, I bet. Big pharma could easily go on a biotech shopping spree. This alone could lift the entire sector. If your company is trading near cash with a decent-looking pipeline, you could be in line for 2x-3x payout this year. Merger Monday, coming soon to a theater near you. 2. Many small cap/micro caps are near 52-week-lows This ties into the first point, but it also stands alone. Not only are your cheap biotech stocks more prone to buyouts, they’re also prone to reverting to the mean. Stocks never stay undervalued forever. Eventually they become too disconnected from reality and they snap back to where they’re supposed to. In this case, it could be the entire sector. If every other sector has reached its peak, the only respectable gains left to found will be in biotech. Hedge funds need gains every year to keep attracting clients. Eventually they will have to pivot to biotech. Otherwise they just look like a boring ETF. 3. Most other sectors are near 52-week-highs Somehow the broader market has thus far dodged a March 2020 collapse. Omicron continues to rage and this doesn’t make a lot of sense. Systems are collapsing nationwide, but $SPY keeps marching on. We’ve got airline cancellations, hospitals running out of ambulances, restaurants and retail closing due to staffing shortages, etc. And it will only get worse. Buying into sectors or companies that could be affected by Omicron (or a worse variant) seems foolish at this point. Especially when they’re already trading at record highs. Eventually this will correct, and these stocks might drop significantly. But where’s biotech going to go? It’s already in the garbage dump. Many small caps are trading near cash value. They’ve got enough funding to last for years. It would be tough for biotech to drop any lower without triggering a tidal wave of M&A. 4. Covid-19 is creating new health problems Are you familiar with long Covid? It’s affecting millions of people around the planet. People are suffering from months (going into years) of fatigue, memory loss, joint pain, chest pain, and more. Doctors estimate that between 20-25% of people who get Covid-19 will experience long Covid. And since the US is currently tracking near a million cases a day, this is significant. While we should definitely be focused on preventing new infections, at some point biotech will need to pivot to treating long Covid patients. Other health problems are also arising due to postponed surgeries and doctor visits. Cancer is very treatable if caught early, but it’s very difficult to treat if you catch it late. Some doctors are expecting a tsunami of cancer cases in the next few years just because of Covid. So, if your small biotech company has an oncology pipeline, they could be set up for serious gains while at the same time helping millions of people 5. More catalysts in 2022 than 2021 In 2021 we were still figuring out Covid. Some people still weren’t masking, others wore bandanas, or near-worthless single-layer cloth masks. We didn’t have enough air purifiers installed. And the big one, we didn’t even have vaccines at the start of 2021. Last year was the big roll out of preventative measures. 2022 is hopefully the year we can start to benefit from that. 2021 saw a lot of trials dates getting pushed back. Some trials even had a hard time recruiting. Many pre-clinical companies also went public in 2021. Some of them have catalysts in 2022. All of this leads to more catalysts in 2022 than there were in 2021. More catalysts are always better because some of these will pan out spectacularly, which will lead to excitement in the sector. One of the most important non-biotech catalysts in 2022 is the American midterm elections. Republicans are likely to do well, which is good news for healthcare and the biotech sector. (Less pricing reforms.) 6. Less biotech IPOs in 2022 2021 saw more than 100 small biotech companies go public. Many of these were pre-clinical, which means they are years from producing revenue. Wall Street has an easy time shorting and destroying the market cap of companies like that. In fact, more than 80% of all the biotechs that went public in 2021 are underwater. Given how poorly these companies performed, we’re likely to see less IPOs in 2022. This is great. If all the biotechs have been massacred, and there are less new ones to beat up, then the only direction left is up. It could take some time, but it’s impossible that companies with pipelines and cash continue to trade at near cash. This assumes that all of them will fail and/or need additional funding, and that’s just not the case. 7. Drug pricing reforms not looking that bad Joe Biden appears to be the classic Democrat. He promised a lot, had good intentions, but then was dragged into the quagmire and had to make concessions when he wanted his bills passed. Drug pricing seems to be a victim Washington bureaucracy. If anything substantial happens, it’s likely to be in the prescription drug area. People love headlines that affect them or their loved ones. Things like a cost reduction for insulin, or EpiPens, are likely to see more play than a cost-reduction for CAR-T cancer treatments for tumors nobody has ever heard of. 8. Omicron and future variant panic Despite Covid-19 doing trillions of dollars in economic damage every year, very few companies (relatively speaking) have focused their efforts on additional treatments or vaccines. There was a misguided belief that Pfizer and Moderna would put an end to the pandemic, and now everyone is paying the price. Since it is human nature to lock the barn door after the horse has been stolen, I suspect that once we’re over the Omicron hump, governments might actually start preparing for the next variant. There could be significant funding on the table for any company working on variant-proof Covid-19 vaccines or treatments. This should have already happened of course, but better late than never. 9. Many small cap bios don’t need money If you look at their balance sheets, many small or micro-cap biotech companies are doing quite well. Matinas BioPharma, for example, has enough cash to fuel operations until 2024. That’s more than enough time for their catalysts to play out, which, if positive, can drastically increase the share price, making it a breeze to raise cash. Some biotech companies that were destroyed in 2021 might start generating revenue in the next year. Yes, it can take a while to ramp up sales. Especially during a pandemic. But some companies will succeed and their revenue will eclipse their expenses before they run out of cash. Less capital raises means less imploding share prices. 10. Institutional ownership is low. Did your company release good data in 2021? Did the share price and volume spike, but then the price came crashing down again? You’re not alone. This happened to a lot of companies. On Twitter, Brad Loncar suggested that institutions were using good data drops as liquidity events. As in, “Oh my god, the price is spiking here’s our opportunity to get out of this crappy sector.” This can be confirmed by looking at institutional investment on sites like Fintel or WhaleWisdom. 13-Fs are issued after the end of each quarter. Institutions must report their holdings. And these holdings have been dropping. Across the board, institutional investment in small-cap and micro-cap biotech is low. Even if the data was good, the sector is still trash, and institutions know they can buy back in for cheap later. Just look at Matinas Biopharma. They released fantastic data for their oral amphotericin B formulation. Over the next few weeks, the stock went from $0.82 to $1.51. Then it started to drop. When the 13Fs came out, it was revealed that their largest shareholder (Boxer Capital) had liquidated their position. This seemed foolish given the quality of the data, but the stock price has now settled near $1. They could easily buy back in for cheaper than they sold. You can see this happening across a lot of smaller biotech stocks. 1. Company releases great data. 2. Hype pushes the stock price higher and higher. 3. Institutions unload their shares on retail. 4. Price collapses because institutions aren’t buying, and it’s months or years before the next catalyst. 5. Retail gets bored and sells. 6. Institutions accumulate again. Sound familiar? Retail can move the needle, but it’s whales that make it stick. Until the institutions come back to biotech, valuations will remain depressed. Hopefully this is the year that biotech makes a roaring comeback. All signs are pointing to maybe.
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#8873 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: USA
Posts: 93
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7sins:
Thank you for your Biotech insight (and many other helpful postings)! I have what I'm sure will sound like a naive question but, when investing in a leveraged ETF like LABU that you have mentioned, is there a maximum number of days, weeks that you intend to hold before time decay offsets any potential upside? |
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#8874 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Mar 2011
Real Name: B.
Location: Beverly Hills, CA
Posts: 3,674
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Quote:
Leveraged ETFs should ONLY BE used as a short term trading vehicle, DO not hold for long period of times. Why? 1. FEES are typically very high for leveraged ETFs that can erode gains. Less of an issue if you only own it for a few months. 2. Interest Expense: These etf's are 2-3X levered, to leverage these ETFs borrow money to multiple their exposure. The majority of these loans are floaters, so if interest rates rise, the cost to borrow capital rises. That comes out of the return of the ETF 3. Tracking Issues: Levered ETFs do not always exactly match the returns of the underlying. 4. Daily Reset. 5. Volatility Decay: This is VERY important and based off sequence of returns. When you have heightened volatility leverage can backfire. If you have several down days, it takes longer to recover your losses even at 3x leverage. If your leveraged etf is down 50% then you need to be up 100% to breakeven. Look at the example below, you have one index and another that is levered. You can see even though the index was positive the levered one was negative. ![]() If the index trade sideways, fees, interest expense, vol decay means that you could lose money even if the index stays flat. This is why you want to use levered ETFs ONLY when there is a severe dislocation (same goes for closed end funds but that's a top for a different day). That is the challenge with levered ETFs, your timing needs to be pretty good, which is why I recommend averaging in. There are a lot of moving variables for how long I keep a levered ETF and you need to constantly asses how your thesis is playing out. I would say on average I keep them for 2 - 4 months. Personally I have to hold securities for 60 days due to my job, I could see using levered etfs for less than 2 months if I could. DEFINITELY want to trim and take gains when you use these as they can quickly dissipate. My .02, not financial advice. B
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Richard Mille RG RM030 || Richard Mille RM72ti || AP 26240 50TH Green Royal Oak Chrono || AP Royal Oak Off Shore Gulf Blue 26238 || AP Royal Oak Blue JUMBO SS 15202ST || AP ROO Diver Green 15720ST || ♕ Rolex Platinum Daytona Diamond 116506 || Cartier Santos |
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#8875 |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,786
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waiting for the bounce
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#8876 |
Banned
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: HOME!
Posts: 1,175
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#8877 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
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Powers in control are really sucking liquidity out of the market. Suspect we have few more sessions like this.
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#8878 |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jun 2015
Real Name: BMF
Location: Tennessee USA
Watch: FPJ UTC
Posts: 2,271
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BCRX bounce in motion today and positive news to keep up the momentum. Up 16% this AM on PR.
—ORLADEYO preliminary net revenue of $45.6 million for Q4 2021 and $122 million for FY 2021— —ORLADEYO net revenue expected to more than double in 2022 to no less than $250 million; Company expects ORLADEYO to become the market leader in HAE prophylaxis therapy with peak sales of $1 billion— —Enrollment of PNH patients has begun in REDEEM-1 and REDEEM-2 pivotal trials of BCX9930, oral Factor D inhibitor for complement-mediated diseases— JPM Conference presentation today. Very excited with our opportunities here. https://jpmorgan.metameetings.net/ev...?gpu_only=true |
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#8879 | |
2025 Pledge Member
Join Date: Oct 2017
Location: nyc
Posts: 6,786
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Quote:
i still can't see fed actually raising rates with this kind of a reaction before anything was even done, unless this is just a sell the rumor kind of event. maybe they'll backpedal on it or push it back a bit |
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#8880 | |
"TRF" Member
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: CT
Watch: 16710,116520,SLA19
Posts: 405
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Quote:
I am contemplating which of the senses I would exchange to be clairvoyant right now. Does that mean we are close? |
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