Precedence for SS short supply?

[Crown & Shield]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

For many brands the watch buying "bubble" burst over two years ago.

I gauge a brands stability and popularity by how willing pre-owned watch dealers are willing to pay HARD CASH for a watch and put it in their inventory.

The picture is not a pretty one. I don't intend to insult anyones favorite brand here, but the reality is that most brands are struggling.

Breitling? It's almost terminal at this point. Even the factory boutique employees admit they don't have a single watch that the market wants. Preowned dealers won't touch them. HARD PASS from dealers.

Hublot? See above. That ship has sailed and is listing. HARD PASS.

Panerai, IWC, Cartier...fill in the blank brand..etc......Just toxic times....there are a few limited Panerai that are somewhat popular, but the rest is just unwanted. IWC? They are as stagnant as it gets. You get the point.

Tag seems to find a niche selling to people who don't know any better and they have a smart watch, so that is getting them some business...

Omega....they have the Speedy and Seamaster, which are rock solid. The rest of their lineup, however, is destined for discounting..

So that leaves us with ROLEX, PATEK and AP....they have essentially withstood the overall market bubble bursting and CREATED one of their own.


Now with AP only select models are in the "bubble"...they have some dogs, but they are still wanted and actively purchased by dealers.

Patek, same here. Some of their line is filling the "bubble", such as the Nautilus, some is floating alongside of it, but still always wanted and actively purchased by dealers without hesitation.

ROLEX! Rolex is the king of the hill right now. They have made all the right moves and are reaping the rewards, many think the light that burns 2x as bright will burn out 2x as fast and that will happen to Rolex....but will it?

Let's look at what many consider the # 1 threat to all consumer products. THE Millennial Generation.

Harley Davidson has been mentioned a few times in this thread, so let's discuss that.

I don't see millennials riding Harleys...that's just not their thing. In their eyes it's a bully machine and they aren't into the bad boy image like baby boomers were. It's just not "cool" to be tough anymore...lol

So what about Rolex?

Well what do millennials with money they make doing all this internet stuff buy?

They go and buy a Rolex, film it and post it on youtube, that's what they do.

Buying A $10,000 Rolex At 17!
...

There are many others:
...

They STILL want a Rolex! They still have that dream of owning one...even with cell phones and smart watches and whatever.

I wore my LVC to a party a few weeks back and my friends (not a watch guy) sons are Millenials. The only other thing they spoke about besides their phones was my Sub. Crazy huh? "Is that a Rolex"? All that stuff. "I want one just like that"! "It's badass"...blah blah blah.


I couldn't seem to find the equivalent videos being made about millenials buying Harley Davidson's, filming it and putting it on youtube...so I don't see Rolex following the same nasty path as Harley...

So if Rolex can thrive even during the millenial cataclysm, then what will cause the bubble to burst? I think Rolex has already survived the bubble bursting that people are worrying about.

Well, clearly another global recession will bring things down to earth (as it did in 2008) , but other than that?

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

It was annually from 2004 to 2012 - including twice in 2008 and 2010. Post-2008, the increases were spurred by the Asian markets, particularly China. They were Hoovering up watches at full price, and were happy to pay even more. The increases were based solely on that, and completely out of step with what was happening with Western economies. When China cooled off in 2012, Rolex - and every other Swiss watch company that was increasing right along with them - had a problem, because the prices suddenly were too high for what the market would bear. Rolex didn't have to lower prices, but they did have to wait for the world to catch up to where the prices were. That's why we haven't seen an across-the-board increase since 2012.

Apparently Rolex learned its lesson. With the current demand, they easily could increase prices, but they're holding tight, evidently wary of what will happen after the next downturn. I suspect they intend to raise prices on new models that have some evident "improvement," so the increase looks justified, rather than inflationary.

Great posts.

[Schneeflocke]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

For many brands the watch buying "bubble" burst over two years ago.

I gauge a brands stability and popularity by how willing pre-owned watch dealers are willing to pay HARD CASH for a watch and put it in their inventory.

The picture is not a pretty one. I don't intend to insult anyones favorite brand here, but the reality is that most brands are struggling.

Breitling? It's almost terminal at this point. Even the factory boutique employees admit they don't have a single watch that the market wants. Preowned dealers won't touch them. HARD PASS from dealers.

Hublot? See above. That ship has sailed and is listing. HARD PASS.

Panerai, IWC, Cartier...fill in the blank brand..etc......Just toxic times....there are a few limited Panerai that are somewhat popular, but the rest is just unwanted. IWC? They are as stagnant as it gets. You get the point.

Tag seems to find a niche selling to people who don't know any better and they have a smart watch, so that is getting them some business...

Omega....they have the Speedy and Seamaster, which are rock solid. The rest of their lineup, however, is destined for discounting..

So that leaves us with ROLEX, PATEK and AP....they have essentially withstood the overall market bubble bursting and CREATED one of their own.


Now with AP only select models are in the "bubble"...they have some dogs, but they are still wanted and actively purchased by dealers.

Patek, same here. Some of their line is filling the "bubble", such as the Nautilus, some is floating alongside of it, but still always wanted and actively purchased by dealers without hesitation.

ROLEX! Rolex is the king of the hill right now. They have made all the right moves and are reaping the rewards, many think the light that burns 2x as bright will burn out 2x as fast and that will happen to Rolex....but will it?

Let's look at what many consider the # 1 threat to all consumer products. THE Millennial Generation.

Harley Davidson has been mentioned a few times in this thread, so let's discuss that.

I don't see millennials riding Harleys...that's just not their thing. In their eyes it's a bully machine and they aren't into the bad boy image like baby boomers were. It's just not "cool" to be tough anymore...lol

So what about Rolex?

Well what do millennials with money they make doing all this internet stuff buy?

They go and buy a Rolex, film it and post it on youtube, that's what they do.

Buying A $10,000 Rolex At 17!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suNgBCJdbjw

There are many others:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnBxrtKKui8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0dr2V60W3lg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vH1Nrn8RTqY

They STILL want a Rolex! They still have that dream of owning one...even with cell phones and smart watches and whatever.

I wore my LVC to a party a few weeks back and my friends (not a watch guy) sons are Millenials. The only other thing they spoke about besides their phones was my Sub. Crazy huh? "Is that a Rolex"? All that stuff. "I want one just like that"! "It's badass"...blah blah blah.


I couldn't seem to find the equivalent videos being made about millenials buying Harley Davidson's, filming it and putting it on youtube...so I don't see Rolex following the same nasty path as Harley...

So if Rolex can thrive even during the millenial cataclysm, then what will cause the bubble to burst? I think Rolex has already survived the bubble bursting that people are worrying about.

Well, clearly another global recession will bring things down to earth (as it did in 2008) , but other than that?

Couldn't agree more! And seeing all these "wannabe experts" on Youtube (a certain GS fanboy in particular ), claiming there is a Rolex bubble, is rather annoying. Not only do they fail to understand the basic principles of market economy, but they are also not very well versed in marketing. And since marketing is my forte, it gets even more frustrating. Nice to see more people with enough knowledge and common sense, voicing what is actually sound conclusions. Cheers!