Hypothesis: Rolex is about to flood the market with BLNRs and BLROs

[Lemonvr6]

Originally Posted by peterpl

So how are Rolex going to make up the lost revenue by discontinuing the entire LN line all SS/TT and Gold pieces?

I would say > 70% of all their GMTs sold were LNs of some configuration or another. Where is this extra revenue coming from in terms of their GMT line?

They will move higher priced models in larger quantities

They aren’t worried about GMT sales specifically

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by rjstuf001

Hi Philip!

I'm starting to think he's just a troll. Either way, I wish he'd zip it.

[ap1]

Wishful thinking

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by SuperLeggera

Just Jubliee for 2019

Correct. Makes no sense, imo. I happen to like the Jubilee on the GMT, but not everyone does. I don't see why Rolex can't offer the choice between it and the Oyster. They do it on the DJ.

[ap1]

Originally Posted by subtona

Bring it on.

Once I knew I could have one I would change my mind and wouldn’t want it:)

[Watch This]

Originally Posted by Juantxo

There was a time when Rolex would severely sanction dealers passing watches to the gray market. They must do it again. Enough already with speculation and petty hustle.

[Juantxo]

Originally Posted by outtatime

Nothing would entertain me more than to watch the greys get stuck holding a huge bag.

Ditto.

[VicLeChic]

I really hope they ramp up production of steel BLRO / BLNR. Unfortunately I don't think it's going to happen. I've got the feeling they're pushing for more PM and TT models.

[Pol1]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

people predicted that last year with the BLRO, didn't happen.... that said, this year it does actually make sense in context of thinning out the line up.

If they actually do it, no idea, but the theory is sound

Mine is predicaten for 02/2020...

[aleeboy]

Absolutely not.

Even if they did the market would not be able to feel it as the focus is on limiting supply to keep the premium, so that the middle layers can make their living.

Everybody needs to eat.

[Rokoru]

My thought is that I don´t really care anymore as I am going to get the Black Bay GMT...

[dtwer]

More maybe, flood I doubt. Would be self defeating to wipe out the product desirability by flooding the market with more products than it can absorb.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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Yes, so even more available at inflated gray market prices and less at retail.

[airchitect]

I’m wondering this as well. My ad just msgd me to ask if I want a blro and I’m sitting here wondering if I’ll be able to get it at a discount in a yr.

[SS Oyster]

Originally Posted by airchitect

I’m wondering this as well. My ad just msgd me to ask if I want a blro and I’m sitting here wondering if I’ll be able to get it at a discount in a yr.

Get the $@&! out of here! You are not being serious.


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[crans-montana]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?


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No, that is all :D! Rolex knows what they are doing.....

[airchitect]

Serious as black ice in Florida sir.....cuz well.....u never know

[HogwldFLTR]

Neither of them will look good on me so...wgaff???

[rushca01]

Originally Posted by airchitect

I’m wondering this as well. My ad just msgd me to ask if I want a blro and I’m sitting here wondering if I’ll be able to get it at a discount in a yr.

If you don’t want it! I’ll gladly pay MSRP for it.

[airchitect]

Originally Posted by rushca01

If you don’t want it! I’ll gladly pay MSRP for it.

He won’t sell to anyone who isn’t a regular and will blacklist my a$& if I flip it. I’m going to see it in the metal later this afternoon. I’ve seen the bezel on the wg but want to see it on the stainless in the sunlight. I’m also not really a jubilee fan but I’m gonna wait to make a final decision when I see the pkg. If it’s a no go then the next on the list will get it and I will put myself down for a black dial Daytona and a bluesey.

[strafer_kid]

Originally Posted by dtwer

More maybe, flood I doubt. Would be self defeating to wipe out the product desirability by flooding the market with more products than it can absorb.

Yes - hard to see a flood emerging!

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by Jmbarrack

I mean it makes sense from a production perspective.

They're narrowing down their steel offerings to have no variation between the two pieces except for a bezel and GMT hand.

From a manufacturing pov, it's as streamlined as it can get.

This. The GMT case was new last year, so everything had to be redesigned to fit it. Therefore, a new SS Oyster was just one extra level of complication from a production standpoint.

Rolex's designs had also been all over the place as of late and I think this streamlining is good. Insofar as streamlining while differentiating, if you want YG, buy a Sub, if you want RG, buy a GMT. There's also the point of differentiating the WG and SS Pepsis with more than dial variations.

I do think we'll eventually see a return of YG on the GMT line, since RG is somewhat trendy right now, but probably won't always be so, particularly in the TT department.

[77T]

Originally Posted by envuks

Rolex has reduced variations in their GMT line up. No more TT with YG, only RG. No more YG cases or bracelets. No more black bezels. No more SS oyster bracelets.

In thinking about this, it feels like a classic simplification of product line to minimize variation and streamline manufacturing. My hypothesis is that we'll see a lot more BLNRs and BLROs in the years to come.

Thoughts?

Conflating projections is erred methinks. While the GMT line experienced a reduced breadth of metal choices, the YM line brought out a totally new case.

At Rolex there isn’t a set of silo’d watchmaking lines - the supply chain element just got a tad more complicated. It is counterintuitive to me that you’ll see production jump around a bezel color and GMT hand set.

So IMHO we won’t see “a lot more” BLNRs and BLROs in the near term. Demand may cause a modest uptick in certain models, but I think more like single digit gains in production output for all models in the next few years.



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[Amochosto]

I suspect the number of Jubilee GMTs produced will increase by roughly the same amount as the number of 116710 LN produced last year. What we don’t know is what proportion of last year’s total GMT production was LN.

My guess is the LN was probably close to 50% of all production, thus we may see a rough doubling of supply of each of the BLNR and BLRO. Maybe 5 year wait lists dwindle to two. Wouldn’t that be great!

[Etschell]

Still waiting for the flood....

[sillo]

Originally Posted by dannyp

This. The GMT case was new last year

Was it actually new? Or did they just change the brushing on the lugs slightly?

[Yobber76]

And by flooding the market, you mean you walk into an AD and he has one?
I don't see it, they will continue to manage the SS sport watch market to move people upmarket to TT and PM, selling more of their models. They may be slightly more available than last year, but not flooding the market. Not in 2019.

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by Etschell

Still waiting for the flood....

It’s only been a week since Basel...tidal waves take time to form. Lol

[SkyJuice]

Time will tell. Sometimes change is good.

[dannyp]

Originally Posted by sillo38

Was it actually new? Or did they just change the brushing on the lugs slightly?

I thought that the lugs were tapered and elongated a bit, making the case look a little less blocky. I can only surmise that it was enough of a change to require some modifications to the bracelet at the end where it attaches to the case.