Grey Market Slipping and Struggling ?

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Hi TRF,

Please feel free to comment on my observations and view point.

As an avid market watcher (UK) I have noticed the Grey re-sellers now find themselves discounting prices to stimulate business. It appears to me that stock is not moving at all and the Greys are getting twitchy with so much money/stock tied up in their Shops and Safe's.

The Part Time occasional flipper ( Bought a Rolex to make money on it) is now getting cold feet and some heavy hitting Rolex models are available at relative discounted prices (New Daytona White/Ceramic available for £ 18.9K was £ 22k a couple of months back).

In general I have seen the Rolex market just start to move a little in favour of the True WIS and perhaps this is the start of the end for the Rolex speculators. I hope.

I have spoke to my local AD today and they say Rolex UK are applying massive pressure on them to ensure all Rolex sales are to bona fide customers and any transgressors are reported to Rolex HQ for further analysis and action.

Just a few thoughts.

Happy New Year

Would not say struggling. These watches are still way over MSRP. But the prices will come down. The more years go by and the BLRO, BLNR, and Daytona the more are out there in rotation. Even in the so called peak, one could have any watch they wanted at their door in 24 hours, so it was always a manufactured shortage based upon the excess amount of grey dealers pinching the supply.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

I have not experienced this China syndrome so cannot comment on the Honk Kong market,

I know this is not entirely representative but I have two moderate size UK Grey Rolex dealers close to me and they are both on their knees with crippling debt.

Now why does that make me even slightly sad? Somehow I think the situation for these grey dealers is not going to improve any time soon.

[Rado63]

I really enjoy everyone's thoughts on this subject. I have seen prices loweing since the end of summer. Unfortunately it seems difficult to come to any conclusions about the secondary market because you can't walk into an AD and buy the watch you want.

[anjizkit]

Great topic and really good views.


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[UK_]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Prices are set in Hong Kong. Prices have been dropping since the 2nd week of the protest that started on the 9th of June (or was it the 6th?). When the first week 1M people took to the street and the 2nd week 2M took to the streets and with the escalation of violence (as even seen today, Chinese people with their suitcases were chased down on a footbridge), the Chinese have stayed away and kept Hong Kong at arm's length.

Prices have been controlled by the Chinese being able to buy watches at these prices and "frying" (as a local saying) them. The rest of the world has just reaped their rewards by picking up these watches, bringing them back and setting their own price with VAT/GST.

Displays at Rolex will remain unchanged as supply will stay the same. Good luck thinking it'll hit MSRP or below MSRP. The premium will always be there unless Rolex changes up strategy and start sending out merchandise like 2015 again.

Tom, Dick and Harry may have been on a list for a Batman and may have benefited from the pricehike by selling to greys, but they aren't the driving force behind the premiums.

Did grey prices increase over Christmas? Hardly so. Where was the demand then? Or did DOW drop 5 points so people staved off buying a Daytona at premium? As said before; prices are set in Hong Kong. The rest of the world just looks on.

Grey dealers getting out of business? 100% unlikely. It's a free market and grey dealers were in business when you were enjoying 25% off MSRP for a 116610LN. Funny to think that people on here see the greys as culprits, when they're offering the watches at "market price".

The "true WIS" and "Im buying to wear it! Not flip it!" is a fart in a glass. No "true WIS" will keep an AD in business when they sit on stock such as an iced out pearlmaster or ugly (subjective of course) lady datejusts in 28mm. The AD is most likely to go out of business because the "true WIS" won't pick up their dead stock and Rolex wants them to sell it. Guess where all that dead stock ends up at? The same people you call "bad-men".

Rolex is a luxury good, which is massively sensitive to fashion.

This whole bubble is only a couple of years old - if anyone thinks this will last forever, they are dreaming.

Soon the trend setters will move in, and Rolex won’t be so cool.

This has happened though all of history - king of England smoked a certain cigarette, they are popular. A princess gets married in a lace wedding dress, it’s in demand.

Only difference is who the trend setters are these days.

Everything is a cycle.


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[Atone]

Originally Posted by UK_

Rolex is a luxury good, which is massively sensitive to fashion.

This whole bubble is only a couple of years old - if anyone thinks this will last forever, they are dreaming.

Soon the trend setters will move in, and Rolex won’t be so cool.

This has happened though all of history - king of England smoked a certain cigarette, they are popular. A princess gets married in a lace wedding dress, it’s in demand.

Only difference is who the trend setters are these days.

Everything is a cycle.


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I don't think that's exactly what's at play here. market may cool a bit for sure but I doubt rolex will be categorically stepped-over

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by UK_

Rolex is a luxury good, which is massively sensitive to fashion.

This whole bubble is only a couple of years old - if anyone thinks this will last forever, they are dreaming.

Soon the trend setters will move in, and Rolex won’t be so cool.

This has happened though all of history - king of England smoked a certain cigarette, they are popular. A princess gets married in a lace wedding dress, it’s in demand.

Only difference is who the trend setters are these days.

Everything is a cycle.


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That could be true, but if you bought a conservative navy blue blazer 20 years ago (not a wide lapel etc), you can wear it today and be totally fine. So far, Rolex has held up the same.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

Incorrect. Grays put prices up since they were able to sell their stock to guess who... The Chinese buyer.
They didn't bump the prices so high that they suddenly found out they would have to reduce their prices by 15% (for the rest of the world to follow it took around 1-2 months from when Hong Kong changed prices)



Bingo!

Incorrect?! You just repeated what I said. Prices rose higher than there were buyers willing to pay. I didn't say whether they were Hong Kong bankers, Texas oilmen, Saudi sheiks or Alabama meth manufacturers.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

That could be true, but if you bought a conservative navy blue blazer 20 years ago (not a wide lapel etc), you can wear it today and be totally fine. So far, Rolex has held up the same.

100% agree, Rolex is timeless - that does does not mean massive demand though......


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[WatchLurv]

Originally Posted by UK_

Rolex is a luxury good, which is massively sensitive to fashion.

This whole bubble is only a couple of years old - if anyone thinks this will last forever, they are dreaming.

Soon the trend setters will move in, and Rolex won’t be so cool.

This has happened though all of history - king of England smoked a certain cigarette, they are popular. A princess gets married in a lace wedding dress, it’s in demand.

Only difference is who the trend setters are these days.

Everything is a cycle.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Only thing that will pull the plug in the sink is if the Chinese economy hits recession and all of their "nouveau riche" people go bust. That won't happen, so premium on pieces will remain high.

The other solution is if Rolex goes back to the level they sent out merchandise for in 2015. That won't happen either. Ever heard how an AD back in the days were able to request 10 SS Subs and get those? But today...They're at a mercy of what the unknown box brings.

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

Incorrect?! You just repeated what I said. Prices rose higher than there were buyers willing to pay. I didn't say whether they were Hong Kong bankers, Texas oilmen, Saudi sheiks or Alabama meth manufacturers.

Prices were set at the level that people were willing to buy at, until those people willing to buy stopped coming to the shops, due to external factors.

Someone mentioned bankers getting a bonus for April? But AAPL just rose 25% in no time, yet prices keep tumbling? Jokes on people with their funny theories. The prices have been directly affected by the Chinese buying power lacking in Hong Kong.

[boogiebot]

It is definitely interesting to see more incomings lately, of SS models and the price on the grey side starting to dip. I’m no expert in the watch market, that said, I have a theory on why we are seeing grey prices dip. I believe that whoever has wanted the watches and have paid over retail to be “first ones” to own the hot pieces are already owners. There are only so many people that will pay an absorbent amount of money for something. I believe these clients have been serviced. Now what’s left is the average consumer like myself, that would want to own a Daytona or BLRO, but does not mind sitting at the sidelines waiting.


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[BillA]

This is a great thread....keep em coming.

[Explorer2polar]

I have read about the perceived Chinese role in the world Rolex shortage and i'm not fully convinced about that one.

Taking a slightly different view point I wonder if the negligible Cooling market in the UK has anything to do with all the bad publicity surrounding Rolex owners being targeted for assaults and theft? The newspapers are full of Murder and Mayhem regarding wearing a Rolex in public and then being robbed.

[Gotgolf52]

I haven’t buy any watches from grey dealer lately mostly because I am able to buy from AD at msrp. However, when I started my collection in 2014 I’ve bought multiple watches from grey at 20-30% discounted price compare to msrp. These people are in the business to make a living and the price is set by the market. If people willing to pay $20k for DaytonaC then why would they sell it for $12,500. A lot of whiners are new to the game and can’t get their watch from AD are bitching at the grey. Shall I bitch at Apple stock for not buying them at $90 a share back in 2016. Get over it and I surely don’t hope grey business to go bankrupt because people have to feed their family too.

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Hi TRF,

Please feel free to comment on my observations and view point.

As an avid market watcher (UK) I have noticed the Grey re-sellers now find themselves discounting prices to stimulate business. It appears to me that stock is not moving at all and the Greys are getting twitchy with so much money/stock tied up in their Shops and Safe's.

The Part Time occasional flipper ( Bought a Rolex to make money on it) is now getting cold feet and some heavy hitting Rolex models are available at relative discounted prices (New Daytona White/Ceramic available for £ 18.9K was £ 22k a couple of months back).

In general I have seen the Rolex market just start to move a little in favour of the True WIS and perhaps this is the start of the end for the Rolex speculators. I hope.

I have spoke to my local AD today and they say Rolex UK are applying massive pressure on them to ensure all Rolex sales are to bona fide customers and any transgressors are reported to Rolex HQ for further analysis and action.

Just a few thoughts.

Happy New Year

Reported to Rolex HQ ?? Wtf .. lol... once you buy something it’s your property to do with as you please

[steve099]

TL/DR.

No one has spare cash this time of year and the greys OPEX costs do not drop because of this, they stay the same and probably increase if you factor in paying staff to stay home ( holiday pay).


nothing to see here...just standard economic swing coupled with HK issues

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by Vamp

I’ll say it again. Americans and Europeans where never the market. EVER! It was 99% Chinese that made the market the way it was. Euros and Mercians barely moved the ticker when the watch game was flying high. I see no bottom in sight.

Exactly

[lovetherolex]

Originally Posted by WatchLurv

I hate reading about "grey dealers this, grey dealers that" on here..

Funny guy. “Hate” others talking about greys? You even bolded it. Emotional about this, are we. It must affect you a lot.

From where I stand you have far too much investment in this to be a passive observer, you sound like either: an undercover grey who is taking it personal, or an undercover grey patron whose constitution allows him to be made to feel bad about his choices, and is taking it personal.

I wouldn’t go bragging about your love for greys, the fact is, most people, if they were a grey (I am not, and don’t support them, AD only), and you came in to their shop to pay 50k over list for your 5980/1R, they would be laughing their rear end off at how they just made a sucker out of this desperate buyer. Laughing and laughing and laughing. Then they’d go home and tell their kids the story. And they’d all laugh together.

But you continue enjoy the watch fairs have a ball.

Your willingness be taken for a ride and at the same time tell yourself it’s a boon (or taking others for a ride, doesn’t affect me either way) doesn’t mean advocate for others to be ok with it the same as you in order to make yourself feel better about your choices. Emotional intelligence 101. It’s transparent.

In any case I don’t see any concern over your emotions, i.e. your “hate” about all this grey talk. This “hate” remark has to be one of the strangest things I’ve read here. Perhaps you ought to deal with your heavy emotions in private.

Not necessary to attempt to soak everyone else just because you fell in the pool there old chap. But have at it if you must.

[peterpl]

Ah people will see in another 6-12 months. The market is SOFT!

You can deny it all you want and say Trusted sellers arent selling for lower or in the US the advertised prices are still the same blah blah blah.

Do me a favour and go try sell your hot SS piece. See how much lower that offer is compared to 12-18 months ago - some dealers are outright refusing to buy ANY hot SS model at the current time without seriously lowballing you bigtime. - if that is not a big indication I dont know what is.

HK/Asia market is very very slow and as others have mentioned HK is THE epicenter of all this madness. When the nucleus is hurting the outer rings will begin to hurt sooner or later.

SS pieces that are selling above MSRP like the HULK, BLNR, BLRO, Daytona C, SkyD - they all sit for a very very long time and wont sell for their list prices these days.

Just wait another 6-12 months. You'll see. LOL

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by JSolution

Reported to Rolex HQ ?? Wtf .. lol... once you buy something it’s your property to do with as you please

That is the point that you fail to comprehend, the Flippers and Grey's are not buying for their own joy of long term ownership.

They are short circuiting the supply and demand of Rolex watches to make a few $$$$ or ££££££ the true WIS buyer is being fleeced by these charlatans.

I think of Flippers and Grey dealers in the same way I do Ticket Touts standing outside a sports arena on Cup Final Day trying to fleece the genuine fans.

[springer]

Originally Posted by Explorer2polar

Hi TRF,

Please feel free to comment on my observations and view point.

As an avid market watcher (UK) I have noticed the Grey re-sellers now find themselves discounting prices to stimulate business. It appears to me that stock is not moving at all and the Greys are getting twitchy with so much money/stock tied up in their Shops and Safe's.

The Part Time occasional flipper ( Bought a Rolex to make money on it) is now getting cold feet and some heavy hitting Rolex models are available at relative discounted prices (New Daytona White/Ceramic available for £ 18.9K was £ 22k a couple of months back).

In general I have seen the Rolex market just start to move a little in favour of the True WIS and perhaps this is the start of the end for the Rolex speculators. I hope.

I have spoke to my local AD today and they say Rolex UK are applying massive pressure on them to ensure all Rolex sales are to bona fide customers and any transgressors are reported to Rolex HQ for further analysis and action.

Just a few thoughts.

Happy New Year

The Rolex speculators you wrote...that was funny. If I had to guess, 99.99% of the members here on the forum are Rolex speculators.

[Explorer2polar]

Originally Posted by springer

The Rolex speculators you wrote...that was funny. If I had to guess, 99.99% of the members here on the forum are Rolex speculators.

Not me. I only ever sold one Rolex ever to finance my New Batman, I bought the Black GMT thinking I would never get a Batman as I had been to impatient to wait for my AD, a week later I get the call Batman ready to collect; A Rolex GMT Black ceramic (Still new with tags and seals) at £100 less than I paid for it which was MSRP. If I had kept it 6 months they were going for £ 8-10 K

So don't consider myself a flipper.

But I think you are correct, a lot of people cashing in on the brand.

[bezler]

Originally Posted by BroncoOne

That could be true, but if you bought a conservative navy blue blazer 20 years ago (not a wide lapel etc), you can wear it today and be totally fine. So far, Rolex has held up the same.

True - except that today, many of the Rolex current references are in fact the wide lapels of our times, and although their prices may hold up in the future, it won't be because they're the conservative classics!.

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[MTdweller]

Not surprising. A softening of the market was bound to happen at some point. I believe this is just a minor correction as some of us who have been waitlisted for the past 2-3 years are finally getting the call on the hot SS pieces. I doubt we will see a massive drop in prices without some greater economic event to put downward pressure on prices/demand.

[H25B]

Someone post up details of some phenomenal bargain they’ve scooped up in the midst of this supposed softening of the market... Anecdotally, there seemed to be an uptick of incomings from ADs but nothing discounted and still plenty of talk from folks considering “going grey” rather than waiting for a piece from an AD. Still can’t get a Pepsi from my AD any time soon.

[tacotaco]

Make more money

Edit: yea I had a couple of drinks ✌🏽

[Brian Page]

Originally Posted by HogwldFLTR

The watch market has a long way to go before I'm interested again in SS Rolexes. It may be slipping but until there's an advantage in cost on buying through greys it's no go.

I agree Lee except for the odd time your number comes up for a new one at the AD. What I hate is the pre-owned market has gone crazy...

[watchmework]

I don’t think the grey market has been slipping, at least based on what I’ve been seeing and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. Just my two cents though.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by springer

The Rolex speculators you wrote...that was funny. If I had to guess, 99.99% of the members here on the forum are Rolex speculators.

[Sandpit]

The comments i most enjoy reading are those saying “its that time of year”. The same was said over summer that it was the ‘summer lull’. Now it’s the ‘Christmas lull’. January will be the ‘new year lull’ then spring will be the ‘Easter lull’. All highly amusing.

Personally speaking though, it’s all becoming very tedious. I could not care less what Basel brings this year and I’ve a feeling that a lot of people will start to lose interest in the brand over the next year or two. The major hype definitely feels like it’s dying a little bit.