Talking Stocks 2.0

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Duende01

This might become the most quoted post of the thread, lol . "Giving back what they earned for the year," what about giving everything back going to back to January 2017? Hey, at least now the opportunity is there. I alresdy sunk about $28,000 from my powder keg on down days over the last two and a half weeks. Hopefully, the opportunities continue.

Sent from my Galaxy S10+ (SM-G975F-DS) using Tapatalk

Yep, I agree.

So where's the bottom

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Yep, I agree.

So where's the bottom

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

-80% from peak.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by EEpro

-80% from peak.

[Tha Baron]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Yep, I agree.

So where's the bottom

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

My guess is S&P bottoms 1450-1600 sometime around July...

[golfgrouch]

Originally Posted by EEpro

-80% from peak.

I believe that was the Great Depression, correct?

[Navarino]

Futures are somehow in the green right now but I have a feeling we're in for a very bumpy ride tomorrow.

NYT just posted this an hour ago on latest unemployment figures... I think a lot of this is obviously "temporary" and not addressed really in the article.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-states.html?

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by superdog

I watch a lot of CNBC.

Lots of professionals stating opinions. Unending variations and possibilities.

My take away: no one knows jack squat. It’s all a gamble and a risk.

I’m holding. Good luck to all.

That's pretty true. Although it seems like most opinions converge around the thought that the market won't stabilize and begin a steady up until there is more resolution on COVID19 in the US (peak infections deaths) and we see what any fiscal or monetary assistance actually do to help the situation. I'm no expert, but it appears that 2350 is a support and if it closes below that, I believe that another support is about 2100. The current buying seems oe be based on sentiment of what seems like a good bargain rather than any underlying facts about the virus and the economy.

[Turnaround]

I think Dow 8000 will be bottom. We’ve got another 2 months to go.

[interestedwatcher]

Originally Posted by Carry The Interest

Futures are somehow in the green right now but I have a feeling we're in for a very bumpy ride tomorrow.

NYT just posted this an hour ago on latest unemployment figures... I think a lot of this is obviously "temporary" and not addressed really in the article.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-states.html?

I'll take what is a dead cat bounce for 1000 dollars.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Tha Baron

My guess is S&P bottoms 1450-1600 sometime around July...

That's an interesting range.

Do you believe that it will eventually go on to new highs?

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

One of the commenters I saw suggested that a lot of these leveraged ETFs are unwinding their positions, hence the huge swings.

I dunno. It's a thought.

Yes this is part of the volatility

Originally Posted by brandrea

That's an interesting range.

Do you believe that it will eventually go on to new highs?

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

Yes there will be new highs as the world economy heals and grows again. How long that will take is another question.

[beshannon]

7:00 am thoughts

1.5 T worth of options set to expire, stimulus starting to be priced in, volatility could ease into next week, NASDAQ futures limit up, markets are as oversold as 1929, 1987 and 2008, credit spreads have widened

The Dow Is Rallying as Warren Buffett Buys the Stock Market Dip

https://www.ccn.com/the-dow-is-rally...ck-market-dip/

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes this is part of the volatility



Yes there will be new highs as the world economy heals and grows again. How long that will take is another question.

I appreciate your positivity.

I expect the same. And while all the experts appear to say different things, they all do believe it’ll come back stronger than ever.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Yes this is part of the volatility



Yes there will be new highs as the world economy heals and grows again. How long that will take is another question.

I’m with you my Brian

I guess I asked the question to the responder because this thread seems to focus on the negative instead of the potential positive.

Yes it’s horrible to see our investments, retirement savings, etc etc get crushed. It’s upsetting to most and life changing to some who are close to or living in retirement, but there is hope for a brighter future.

A market is made up of buyers and sellers and it will go up and down. I think for many here, the market only goes up and to the right. That may be true for most of us since it’s basically been that way since 2009 if you graph it and for others it’s easy to forget the past.

Someone once said if you can’t image a 20% (or worse) market correction, it’s probably a place you shouldn’t be investing

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

I appreciate your positivity.

I expect the same. And while all the experts appear to say different things, they all do believe it’ll come back stronger than ever.

Thanks, yours as well this is a tough time, I try to remain objective even though I see my balances

Originally Posted by brandrea

I’m with you my Brian

I guess I asked the question to the responder because this thread seems to focus on the negative instead of the potential positive.

Yes it’s horrible to see our investments, retirement savings, etc etc get crushed. It’s upsetting to most and life changing to some who are close to or living in retirement, but there is hope for a brighter future.

A market is made up of buyers and sellers and it will go up and down. I think for many here, the market only goes up and to the right. That may be true for most of us since it’s basically been that way since 2009 if you graph it and for others it’s easy to forget the past.

Someone once said if you can’t image a 20% (or worse) market correction, it’s probably a place you shouldn’t be investing

Completely agree, I was perhaps too aggressive recently as I am within a year of being able to stop working at my present job.

Will I do that now or even be able to do that now? I am no longer sure.

I do know that whatever happens in the next year pales in comparison to needing my money to work for me for the next 30 and in that time the markets will recover and they will be higher. Simple charts can show this.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by EEpro

-80% from peak.

Many individual issues are down that much, the entire market will not go down 80%

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by beshannon

This is a very good thing!

Yes and no. It shows the global community is too dependant on a system that really does not support the human race fairly or equally imho. This system chooses 'winners' and 'losers', and not for the overall good of the human race imho. Abuse of power and all that too.

One's merit on a global scale is not truly 'rewarded' if it does not benefit in a way that serves those who... but that's a whole 'nother can-o-worms not for this thread.

Stay safe everyone and remember, this knife has not fully fallen yet. We're only in 'phase' 2 of what it at least 5 phases.

[JParm]

Anyone else looking to buy long-term at those industries hit the hardest by COVID-19, knowing they'll eventually (could be awhile, but eventually!) bounce back?

Just my thoughts, and happy to hear all opinions:

Travel - MGM, BKNG, YELP, TRIP
Entertainment - IMAX
Restaurants - DIN, EAT, SHAK

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by brandrea

I’m with you my Brian

I guess I asked the question to the responder because this thread seems to focus on the negative instead of the potential positive.

Yes it’s horrible to see our investments, retirement savings, etc etc get crushed. It’s upsetting to most and life changing to some who are close to or living in retirement, but there is hope for a brighter future.

A market is made up of buyers and sellers and it will go up and down. I think for many here, the market only goes up and to the right. That may be true for most of us since it’s basically been that way since 2009 if you graph it and for others it’s easy to forget the past.

Someone once said if you can’t image a 20% (or worse) market correction, it’s probably a place you shouldn’t be investing

I think Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett's long-time business partner) said it best:

“if you’re not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50% two or three times a century you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre result you’re going to get".

Although, we have had 2 in the past 20 years and may be on the way to yet another so we may be entering a different era in investing.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Anyone else looking to buy long-term at those industries hit the hardest by COVID-19, knowing they'll eventually (could be awhile, but eventually!) bounce back?

Yes, but not yet.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

Anyone else looking to buy long-term at those industries hit the hardest by COVID-19, knowing they'll eventually (could be awhile, but eventually!) bounce back?

Just my thoughts, and happy to hear all opinions:

Travel - MGM, BKNG, YELP, TRIP
Entertainment - IMAX
Restaurants - DIN, EAT, SHAK

Yes. I have an inappropriate amount of MGM.

[samson66]

Anybody who knows way more than I do have thoughts on picking up cruise stocks? Carnival down to $10 last I checked. Are we at the bottom for them yet you think? I'm very tempted to pick some up. Currently down ~80% off the high

[JParm]

Originally Posted by samson66

Anybody who knows way more than I do have thoughts on picking up cruise stocks? Carnival down to $10 last I checked. Are we at the bottom for them yet you think? I'm very tempted to pick some up. Currently down ~80% off the high

I've thought about that too, specifically RCL, but didn't include them in my list above of things that "should" eventually bounce back.

I hesitate there because we just don't know what COVID-19 will do to the cruise line industry, and if they can weather this storm. I think there will be a negative outlook on cruising for a long time after this, so it's a tough pickup for me. I could also see a few going bankrupt if this goes on for too long.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by samson66

Currently down ~80% off the high

It can go down another 100%.

I confess a little annoyance at proposals that the government bail out cruise lines... most of the people who work on those ships are not USA citizens. Those ships are "flagged" in other countries with different (less strict) laws.

OK, rant over.

We'd like to hope that most if not all of these larger companies will continue to pay their employees, so given that expense, and they still have to pay for offices and of course the huge loans that they take out on these ships, plus I assume, dock fees, they will be hemorrhaging money for months.

At some point, yes, it will be a good investment if they survive, but I can think of better places to put your money.

[samson66]

Originally Posted by jpeezy14@hotmail.com

I've thought about that too, specifically RCL, but didn't include them in my list above of things that "should" eventually bounce back.

I hesitate there because we just don't know what COVID-19 will do to the cruise line industry, and if they can weather this storm. I think there will be a negative outlook on cruising for a long time after this, so it's a tough pickup for me. I could also see a few going bankrupt if this goes on for too long.

I have the same hesitation but think of the big companies they (Carnival) are in the best position to get through this, with RCL a close second. I wouldn't touch NCL or any of the others no matter how low they go - I think they may go bye-bye.

I may throw a few thousand on Carnival, an amount that I can afford to lose. Not sure I would put big money on them for the reasons you mentioned. Could be worth a small gamble though

[m j b]

Let's think about what demands will be pent up from the various lockdowns, quarantines, etc. when this is over.

- People have to buy food and use utilities. That didn't stop during the crisis.
- You need a car to get to work, unless you live in a big city with decent public transport (NYC). And if you have a job. So I can see car sales recovering.
- People will want to get out of the house and travel, but I wonder if there will still be some travel restrictions? I'm guessing not, domestically. Also, a lot of of business travel will have been deferred. I suspect international travel will still be down a bit.

I think anyone that wants to take a cruise after the horror stories we've seen should have their head examined. So I'm not bullish on them.

Any other thoughts on best industries for the recovery? In terms of investing.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by samson66

Anybody who knows way more than I do have thoughts on picking up cruise stocks? Carnival down to $10 last I checked. Are we at the bottom for them yet you think? I'm very tempted to pick some up. Currently down ~80% off the high

Smarter people than me on here. But here is an interesting article in the National Review re: cruise companies.

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/...ital-industry/

One can debate the policy positions of the article. But I do agree that one of the major questions is wether they will be considered too big to fail and receive the same type of bailout as the auto industry and financial industry did.

Given the low percentage of Americans they directly employ, and their tarred public image, I have my doubts as to whether they will receive enough to weather the multi year storm that may be coming their way.

Enough to boost share prices temporarily? Perhaps. But the longer term issue is not one that has an easy answer.

Stay safe.

[samson66]

Originally Posted by m j b

It can go down another 100%.

I confess a little annoyance at proposals that the government bail out cruise lines... most of the people who work on those ships are not USA citizens. Those ships are "flagged" in other countries with different (less strict) laws.

OK, rant over.

We'd like to hope that most if not all of these larger companies will continue to pay their employees, so given that expense, and they still have to pay for offices and of course the huge loans that they take out on these ships, plus I assume, dock fees, they will be hemorrhaging money for months.

At some point, yes, it will be a good investment if they survive, but I can think of better places to put your money.

Good point on the 100% but agree completely on the bailouts. I said the same thing to my wife the other night. These companies purposely flag their ships in other countries to avoid U.S. labor laws and pay their employees garbage wages, now they want the U.S. taxpayers to bail them out. Maybe it's time to let them sink (pun intended)

[RyanO]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Thanks, yours as well this is a tough time, I try to remain objective even though I see my balances



Completely agree, I was perhaps too aggressive recently as I am within a year of being able to stop working at my present job.

Will I do that now or even be able to do that now? I am no longer sure.

I do know that whatever happens in the next year pales in comparison to needing my money to work for me for the next 30 and in that time the markets will recover and they will be higher. Simple charts can show this.

I'll second that. Appreciate your positivity and objective analysis in this trying time.

[JParm]

Originally Posted by m j b

Let's think about what demands will be pent up from the various lockdowns, quarantines, etc. when this is over.

- People have to buy food and use utilities. That didn't stop during the crisis.
- You need a car to get to work, unless you live in a big city with decent public transport (NYC). And if you have a job. So I can see car sales recovering.
- People will want to get out of the house and travel, but I wonder if there will still be some travel restrictions? I'm guessing not, domestically. Also, a lot of of business travel will have been deferred. I suspect international travel will still be down a bit.

I think anyone that wants to take a cruise after the horror stories we've seen should have their head examined. So I'm not bullish on them.

Any other thoughts on best industries for the recovery? In terms of investing.

I don't see new car sales recovering for awhile if unemployment truly goes up. I think people will use whatever they currently have, or at the very least buy used. This one is a longer term pull for me.

To the 2nd bold point, I think people will still continue to travel to get away, at least domestically, as you said. People will still eat out, that's why I think restaurants are a decent buy.

I'm holding off on cruise lines...there's just not enough there to tempt me.