Talking Stocks 2.0

[Mendota]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I think with SOFI you can't look at the current P/S as reflective of the future. Now they have their bank charter, margins and revenue will grow exponentially, which will lower their P/S. Would not under-estimate the impact of officially being a bank now illustrated by the chart below, that is an estimate~80% INCREASE in EBITDA by having the bank charter THIS year. Also don't forget Noto was a key player at GS Investment Banking, he has deep ties to make sure this company succeeds. If they hit the below charted projections (which would be one hell of a CAGR) I would expect the price to be well north of $25 over the years, if not much higher. ER is 3/1 and will be adding to my 2024 position prior.

Incredible buying opportunity here at $12 but hear you the remaining year will be volatile. If you are worried about 2023 calls, just roll them to 2024 at a slightly higher strike and it won't cost you anything while buying you more time.

Great "We Study Billionaires" podcast interview here with Logan Allin, who was one of the founders and original investors in SOFI and left to start his own VC firm called FinVC. He talks a lot about the space in general and SOFI specifically, as well as other companies that he is backing.

https://open.spotify.com/episode/2xo...Q--WeNheMhtMgA

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I think with SOFI you can't look at the current P/S as reflective of the future. Now they have their bank charter, margins and revenue will grow exponentially, which will lower their P/S. Would not under-estimate the impact of officially being a bank now illustrated by the chart below, that is an estimate~80% INCREASE in EBITDA by having the bank charter THIS year. Also don't forget Noto was a key player at GS Investment Banking, he has deep ties to make sure this company succeeds. If they hit the below charted projections (which would be one hell of a CAGR) I would expect the price to be well north of $25 over the years, if not much higher. ER is 3/1 and will be adding to my 2024 position prior.

Incredible buying opportunity here at $12 but hear you the remaining year will be volatile. If you are worried about 2023 calls, just roll them to 2024 at a slightly higher strike and it won't cost you anything while buying you more time.

yeah i think their ceo and team and everything they're doing is right on point so far. the bank charter was huge and i think the only thing they really have left is to redo their trading platform so that it allows margin/options (i believe this is on the way) and a better ui and then the new users will come flooding in. unfortunately the bank charter news came at the worst possible time but i definitely don't see a world where it's not at least 25-30 in the near future because they're growing so fast. just mainly just concerned with this year because the market is so punishing towards growth stocks and thinking maybe they won't be too forward looking, at least now, but maybe we see some relief in the next few months so who knows. it was rough seeing -60% last week even though it took literally 1.5 days for that to turn green but that's with there still being a year left on those calls so i don't wanna get trapped. worst case like you said i'll just roll the 2023s into 2024s and add during major dips. my biggest position is in 2024s as it stands anyway

that jump from 21 to 22 in the chart is insane though, so maybe nothing to worry about yet lol

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by 7sins

I think with SOFI you can't look at the current P/S as reflective of the future. Now they have their bank charter, margins and revenue will grow exponentially, which will lower their P/S. Would not under-estimate the impact of officially being a bank now illustrated by the chart below, that is an estimate~80% INCREASE in EBITDA by having the bank charter THIS year. Also don't forget Noto was a key player at GS Investment Banking, he has deep ties to make sure this company succeeds. If they hit the below charted projections (which would be one hell of a CAGR) I would expect the price to be well north of $25 over the years, if not much higher. ER is 3/1 and will be adding to my 2024 position prior.

Incredible buying opportunity here at $12 but hear you the remaining year will be volatile. If you are worried about 2023 calls, just roll them to 2024 at a slightly higher strike and it won't cost you anything while buying you more time.

Think this pretty much sums it up! Higher margins should lead to more product offerings later as well. Super Bowl is being held at Sofi Stadium in a couple weeks and that could bring some attention to the company. Wouldn’t be surprised if we get a little retail driven rally before and/or after that.

[scarlet knight]

Meta (Facebook) is down 21% after hours. I own a small to medium position. I like to trade in and out. Meta’s guidance going forward is also disappointing, in addition to the prior quarter’s result. I assume many of you own this stock. Would you buy, sell or hold?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Meta (Facebook) is down 21% after hours. I own a small to medium position. I like to trade in and out. Meta’s guidance going forward is also disappointing, in addition to the prior quarter’s result. I assume many of you own this stock. Would you buy, sell or hold?

personally not a fan of meta, what's their future even? right now their whole business model revolves around selling user data. i know they're trying to get into this metaverse thing but i feel like that's too much of a scam right now and too far away. also feel like their ceo taints the company since they constantly get sued. surprised they dropped so much considering how much they actually make though

[denmanproject]

Dipped a toe in SOFI $11.72

[7sins]

You boys watching SST today??? Cruising 25% today to $12.90. Warrants should gap up when price stabilizes. WT only $1.10, strike is 11.50 and price today of $12.90 means .30 discount (12.90-12.60). Where most warrants on stocks trading above $10 or have demand trade at premium. Look at Seat, WT $2.05, stock is 8.30, strike $11.50 which would be BE at $13.55 so the warrant trades at 50% premium there. Either way, very happy to buy those SSTWT sub $1, hope some of you scored here or on the underlying. 98% MERGER REDEMPTION, that is insane, only 700k tradable float. Finally a day with good volume.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by 7sins

For anyone along on the ride with AUPH, more good news, cowen today re-iterates $35PT with below research piece, worth the 2 minutes to read.




Also notice the peculiar short covering, almost at 2x by over 3M shares, that should ease downward pressure on the stock too.

also adding to this on AUPH as it hits the wire today, another nice note this time from Cantor.

Cantor:"
$AUPH
Model update -launch is tracking well and are estimating net LUPKYNIS revenues in 4Q21 will be $21.1M; LUPKYNIS revenue estimate for 2022 is $162.7M, and we are assuming a
$30M
royalty from Otsuka...reiterate Overweight rating and $34 price target..."

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Meta (Facebook) is down 21% after hours. I own a small to medium position. I like to trade in and out. Meta’s guidance going forward is also disappointing, in addition to the prior quarter’s result. I assume many of you own this stock. Would you buy, sell or hold?

Cramer was optimistic on FB this morning. I apply the Constanza rule to Cramer: Do the opposite.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You boys watching SST today??? Cruising 25% today to $12.90. Warrants should gap up when price stabilizes. WT only $1.10, strike is 11.50 and price today of $12.90 means .30 discount (12.90-12.60). Where most warrants on stocks trading above $10 or have demand trade at premium. Look at Seat, WT $2.05, stock is 8.30, strike $11.50 which would be BE at $13.55 so the warrant trades at 50% premium there. Either way, very happy to buy those SSTWT sub $1, hope some of you scored here or on the underlying. 98% MERGER REDEMPTION, that is insane, only 700k tradable float. Finally a day with good volume.

Just out of curiosity, how come the warrants didn’t move like the stock? At one point I think I saw the stock up 10% but warrants were up only 2-3%.

[Magnum75]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You boys watching SST today??? Cruising 25% today to $12.90. Warrants should gap up when price stabilizes. WT only $1.10, strike is 11.50 and price today of $12.90 means .30 discount (12.90-12.60). Where most warrants on stocks trading above $10 or have demand trade at premium. Look at Seat, WT $2.05, stock is 8.30, strike $11.50 which would be BE at $13.55 so the warrant trades at 50% premium there. Either way, very happy to buy those SSTWT sub $1, hope some of you scored here or on the underlying. 98% MERGER REDEMPTION, that is insane, only 700k tradable float. Finally a day with good volume.

Yes indeed. In addition to adding warrants I've been collecting some nice premiums selling SST/TREB puts. It helps a little during this downturn. Thanks again B!

[7sins]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Just out of curiosity, how come the warrants didn’t move like the stock? At one point I think I saw the stock up 10% but warrants were up only 2-3%.

After de-spac there was a 98.6% merger redemption, that left the float to only 700k available shares. Thus low volume can easily move the stock up or down. Warrants, being 5 year options, often play catchup when a stock is volatile either way as it looks at longer term pricing. More notably, in this scenario, there is ~20M available warrants thus a lot more supply than the underlying float hence why warrants don't move as much. Today is a good example of the opposite direction, warrants down 1.5% however underlying down 8%. However, putting that into perspective, at current prices, that is a total warrant val of less than $20M, thus if interest moved quickly whenever people discover this company, those warrants will move at a faster pace.

Originally Posted by Magnum75

Yes indeed. In addition to adding warrants I've been collecting some nice premiums selling SST/TREB puts. It helps a little during this downturn. Thanks again B!

You are very welcome, impressive what they are doing with their Protected acquisition. Going to be a great long term winner, hard to beat the current valuation on a profitable company. Would not be surprised to see them raise guidance once again in the near future.

[hkuo]

Got it and thank you, 7sins!

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Cramer was optimistic on FB this morning. I apply the Constanza rule to Cramer: Do the opposite.

Always a good idea.

I can't believe that guy still has a job.

[jokerGN]

Inverse Cramer is the safest bet in the market right now..

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by jokerGN

Inverse Cramer is the safest bet in the market right now..

Works most of the time.
Probably why Jim has blocked 30% of Twitter ‘finance’ users.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Cramer was optimistic on FB this morning. I apply the Constanza rule to Cramer: Do the opposite.

How about Stephanie Link who sold Google recently & bought Facebook / Meta. Ouch. Talked about it on CNBC half-time. Tough going on tv everyone day & giving out picks. This time though, I think that move was for her company, Hightower.

[7sins]

Great article today on how undervalued biotech is, same thing we have been saying on here for weeks now. Worth the 5 minute read.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/12...ar-11644184400

M&A will pick up
“Biotech was in such a freefall that potential buyers just held off, waiting for better prices. Now that biotech stocks are stabilizing and product sales will start showing improvement, buyers will show more interest. Big Pharma certainly has the cash to buy, as you can see from this chart from Jefferies.”

Biotechs looks cheap
“Biotech is so beaten down, several relative valuation metrics suggest it can move up anywhere from 24% to 155%, according to this recent analysis from Bank of America”

Everything you need to know in the below two charts, look at them massive amount of cash prime for M&A and or stock buyback/raise dividends and the second showing the meaningful upside in pharma. I would take that 155%+ implied upside ALL DAY.

[JWD531]

Anyone in ROKU? Thoughts on earnings expectations next week? I'm intrigued by it, but P/S still high, PE still high, and if it misses another quarter, it could get similar treatment to PYPL. Thoughts?

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Great article today on how undervalued biotech is,

TELL ME ABOUT IT. Long and strong brochacho.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

How about Stephanie Link who sold Google recently & bought Facebook / Meta. Ouch. Talked about it on CNBC half-time. Tough going on tv everyone day & giving out picks. This time though, I think that move was for her company, Hightower.

I find that their stock picks generally stink. Weiss keeps picking VW, GXO, Josh Brown Uber, a few like GM, FB. Now watch, do not act on their recommendations.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by jltait

If y’all are looking for a new trade, check out ZIM the Israeli shipping company. No debt, printing $1 per share per day in free cash flow and an impending special dividend that is likely to blow the socks off of anyone watching. Technical traders will love the chart too.

Thanks again Jared, I bought this on your suggestion and it's gone up, what, 5 points since? Nice numbers.

One of the few green entries in my portfolio.

[chsu74]

XBI the best performing sector today followed by XLE.

[huncho]

coty finally doing well again after earnings and sst creeping on up. good times (no jinx)

[AshCashEmAll]

Hopefully everyone got a little skin in SEAT! Still more room for growth.

Still cheap on EBITDA vs. peers in sector.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

Hopefully everyone got a little skin in SEAT! Still more room for growth.

Still cheap on EBITDA vs. peers in sector.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Does anyone know when ER is? I tried looking around and see no announcement which is odd, last ER was 11/15. Should be a homerun brother.

[7sins]

Great chart below to reference historical geopolitical events and their dismissive impact on the market. Relevant today for heightened tensions with Russia and Ukraine.

[spurwar]

Nice earnings report on SABR today. Hopefully we can keep some of this momentum as I am still a bit underwater!

[7sins]

Originally Posted by spurwar

Nice earnings report on SABR today. Hopefully we can keep some of this momentum as I am still a bit underwater!

Heck of a day! Hopefully everyone dollar cost averaged down sub $8, should be plenty of green in the SABR option chain. Was interesting as the ER wasn't great but the 2022 guidance was exceptional. Cashflow positive by second half of 2022 (BIG deal and why we saw the pop today) and FEB being the best month since pre-covid for travelers with airlines increasing transatlantic flights to pickup summer demand. I trimmed my $7C exposure to take 80% gains, hopefully some of you made nice gains there too. Will keep my $10c, 12c and 15c calls into next ER and at least through summer. Below are the top 3 slides from the call that I thought were important, short of another covid outbreak I see this running nice into Summer. DCA paid off hugely here, I am going to trim my positions in increments as we should run to $15.

We also ripped today in seatw, bbig and nice gains for sst-wt and auph. One of the best days this year, finally. Also anyone else notice TBT creeping up this year? I pounded the table on this play last year and DCA this year when yields were moving on the 10yr and TBT bottomed ~$17. IMO, yields are oversold with the curve baking in 6 rate hikes before the end of the year. 10yr already moved 60bp, the worst start to fixed income in 49 years. I've exited my $17c TBT for a nice 35% gain today and was my rising rate hedge. Will keep my remaining 18c to see where rates bounce around.

Not financial advice, just my .02 on a few moves this week.

[huncho]

i will take a putin rally in the absence of a santa rally lol. i picked up some microsoft and fedex but other than that sitting and waiting patiently. my positions are still looking pretty rough overall from november

Originally Posted by 7sins

We also ripped today in seatw, bbig and nice gains for sst-wt and auph. One of the best days this year, finally.

have you been seeing the latest news for bbig? kind of starting to feel like it might not even be a bad long term play or maybe i just have stockholm syndrome