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1 March 2022, 03:42 AM | #9151 |
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Citadel 2021 Financial Report.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...ly_FS_2021.pdf Securities sold, not yet purchased, at fair value is crazy and the amount of reverse repo they do is wild for sure. Would love to hear Sins view! Margins seem razor-thin for this amount of money? No? |
1 March 2022, 05:56 AM | #9152 | ||
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1. They now have $450M+ in cash, that is almost $4/share in cash with ZERO debt. 2. The ER was fine, they were in line with expectations for 2021. 2022 revenue is projected at 122% growth without milestone and royalty payments. 3. The major issue here was the disappointing guidance at 125M for 2022. This makes ZERO sense to me and should have been closer to $200M based on his previous comments. I suspect this and using the ATM shelf were leveraged to lower the price and now they can grant exec options. Pure manipulation and disappointing to see. 4. We have been here several times before, this short term hurdle should make for long term gains for those who can stomach the volatility. I am not worried one bit. 5. Given the very low 2022 guidance, this should be VERY easy for AUPH to meaningfully surpass estimates, assuming they are not BO. 6. My personal concern would be the 25% drop off with zero explanation from PG and less meaningful is the countersuit from Sun on patent infringement which favors AUPH. Just my .02, most of the call was in line with expectations and this is a clear over reaction from retail investors, being well below FDA approval. Have to imagine sales continue to ramp from here and this is a SoC blockbuster that BP wants, just need the right price for the BOD. Although not completely similar but look at Wallstreet driving the price on IMMU down to $8 before it was boughout by GILD for $88. Volatiles times but this too shall pass.
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1 March 2022, 07:43 AM | #9153 |
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1 March 2022, 01:12 PM | #9154 |
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Talking Stocks 2.0
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1 March 2022, 10:39 PM | #9155 | |
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I avg up and avg down in the past 6 months. Feel like a complete yo yo and hope the biotech macro can bring this stock price back up if nothing else.. |
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1 March 2022, 10:58 PM | #9156 |
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Leverage to obtain cheap debt, use debt to buy back stock. Their CFO is not doing their job to pump up the stock to add value for stock holders and help the market imho
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2 March 2022, 12:54 AM | #9157 |
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Hrtx ? ? ?
Anyone else in this? BNA/LION reccy'd Heron Therapeutics, Inc. a few years ago, and there were some times when we made good coin if one were to jump in and out of the trading ranges...
Unfortunately, that range has been on a downward spiral for several years, and recent earnings report has us down another 20% just today, which has gone from painful into downright makes-me-want-to-cry territory. I know biotechs are risky, but with risk often comes the possibility of great reward. The company has good products and may have a bright long-term future, but I am getting discouraged. I guess I'm better off than some folks who bought it at 38 (the peak) but here at around $5 it's far below my average cost of around $16. Anyone else in this one, or have thoughts, opinions or advice? One year chart below, courtesy of Yahoo! Finance:
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2 March 2022, 01:04 AM | #9158 | |
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I’m in Heron at a little higher than you . Luckily I didn’t throw too much in when I did.
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2 March 2022, 07:50 AM | #9159 |
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SOFI looking good AH
Appreciate the rec and all the research posted 7sins !! |
2 March 2022, 08:10 AM | #9160 | |
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Yep. Needed some good news today. “Q4 & Full Year 2021 Summary Results” file = https://s27.q4cdn.com/749715820/file...esentation.pdf |
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2 March 2022, 08:59 AM | #9161 |
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520k new members in q4, pretty nuts
somehow their good news always comes at the worst times lol |
3 March 2022, 02:31 AM | #9162 |
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Trying to destroy retail with AUPH
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
3 March 2022, 02:54 AM | #9163 |
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3 March 2022, 09:06 AM | #9164 |
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There was the Greenspan put in the early 2000’s. In the 2020’s, I can only surmise that there is a 7Sins put under the market and after today he owns 9.999% of AUPH!
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3 March 2022, 01:35 PM | #9165 | ||
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As an investor, when management speaks you have to assume face value of what they said. The issue $250M ATM shelf claiming it was for house keeping and zero intention to tap it. Then tap it. A week prior to ER claim aggressive 2022 forecast and on ER massively disappoint with weak guidance. Remember the CEO is not a scientist, he is a hedge fund CEO with a self-serving mentality and has used similar tactics with his previous companies. To me, this clearly looks like a way for them to manipulate the stock price lower, especially in coordination with AF hit piece today, just so happens the day after SSR. Now they can issue options and readjust previous options at a much lower cost. All this does is burn retail, especially those that are shaken out, a common event in biotech investing. So they create massive short term vol, drive price down, grant cheap options and then price recovers. I think recovery either happens through the year as AUPH will very easily outpace their 2022 guidance and or BO, the latter makes more sense but the question is on timing. Analyst research below released this week. My .02, I am rolling my 2023 calls to 2024, we saw tremendous support at $10 today on high volume across a 15% peak to trough move. I've been trimming a good portion of my seatw given the premium to intrinsic value and will continue to add here to dollar cost average. Doesn't mean there won't be more hurdles along the way but I believe in my research, VOC and the respective science behind it. Just have to weed through all the BS that causes the price to fluctuate - look at IMMU for example.
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3 March 2022, 02:57 PM | #9166 | |
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4 March 2022, 02:22 AM | #9167 |
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looking like the vegas trip is delayed indefinitely
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4 March 2022, 02:45 AM | #9168 |
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H r t x
For those still following or interested in HRTX (Heron Thereapeutics) I found this article last night on Seeking Alpha, AKA, unknown people writing their opinions hoping for clicks to make money. Or UPWTOHFCTMM
Text copied below without pictures and charts: Heron Therapeutics: Changing Strategy After Disappointing Earnings Mar. 02, 2022 8:46 PM Heron Therapeutics, Inc. (HRTX) Heron Therapeutics had a productive 2021 with several corporate and commercial achievements that will set the company up for future growth. Subsequently, Heron obtained approval for a substantially expanded indication only five months after launch. Furthermore, the company filed an NDA for a potential fourth commercial product, HTX-019, for postoperative nausea and vomiting "PONV", which has a PDUFA date in September of this year. Unfortunately, COVID-19 headwinds continue to hinder both cancer treatments and elective surgeries. This contributed to disappointing earnings and a subsequent sell-off in the share price. I believe HRTX is now discounted for its future prospects. As a result, I am switching to a DCA strategy. My buy target is $6.50 and Sell 1 is $9.46. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Compounding Healthcare. Learn More » HRTX Daily Chart HRTX Daily Chart (Trendspider) Nurse at the hospital putting an IV Drip on a patient andresr/E+ via Getty Images Last year was a productive year for Heron Therapeutics (HRTX) which had several corporate and commercial achievements that will set the company up for future growth. Heron gained U.S. approval and launched their flagship product ZYNRELEF for postoperative pain. Subsequently, Heron obtained approval for a substantially expanded indication only five months after launch. The company has submitted their first of two sNDAs for ZYNRELEF that will more than triple the number of covered procedures compared to the original label. In addition, the company has seen its CINV franchise stabilize despite generic competition. Furthermore, the company filed an NDA for a potential fourth commercial product, HTX-019, for postoperative nausea and vomiting "PONV", which has a PDUFA date in September of this year. Moreover, the company has cut costs and was able to secure a partner for ZYNRELEF in ex-U.S. territories, which will extend their cash runway. 2021 might have been a productive year for the company, but it was a destructive year for the share price... which took another leg down after reporting disappointing Q4/2021 earnings. It looks as if COVID-19 headwinds continue and they have eroded the share price, which is down roughly 70% over the past 12 months. My position is currently in the red, however, I am looking to alter my strategy to turn it green. I intend to review the company's recent earnings and will highlight some key points for investors. In addition, I point out a few opportunities for growth and will discuss how that impacts my outlook for HRTX. Finally, I reveal my new strategy for HRTX and how I plan to get back into the green. Earnings Highlights For the fourth quarter, Heron’s net product sales were $20.7M, which was slightly down from the $20.6M the company pulled in during Q4 of 2020. For ZYNRELEF, Heron recorded $0.8M in net product sales for the fourth quarter of 2021 with ZYNRELEF demand units increasing by 126% over the prior quarter. The CINV franchise pulled in $19.9M, which is a pandemic low attributable to COVID-19 decreasing cancer screening and new patient starts. CINVANTI contributed $17.4M, which is down from $20.3M in Q4 of 2020. For SUSTOL, the company’s reported product sales came in at $2.5M, which is a big increase compared to $0.3M in Q4 of 2020. The company also pointed out that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services are backing “value-based contracts” for “cheaper, generic and biosimilar products.” On the bright side, Heron reported that they have seen stabilized CINVANTI demand at 98% of 2020 levels. Despite the rough market, Heron believes their CINV products are “poised for moderate growth in 2022.” In terms of cash, Heron finished the quarter with $157.6M cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. In general, Heron expects that the company’s cash usage will be reasonably lower this year due to an expected increase in net product sales increase, and we see the impact of the cost-saving measures. Opportunities for Growth Heron has a few opportunities to accelerate growth in the coming quarters. First and foremost, there is a possibility that the FDA will approve significant label expansions for ZYNRELEF. The FDA already accepted the company’s first sNDA to cover around 7M procedures, matched to only about 2M for ZYNRELEF’s initial label. The first sNDA, if approved, will broaden the label to contain foot and ankle surgeries and lower extremity total joint arthroplasty procedures as well as small-to-medium open abdominal surgeries. In addition, the FDA also agreed to matters of the second sNDA for orthopedic and soft tissue surgical procedures. The endpoints for these studies are safety and PK. Make note, the company will not need to demonstrate efficacy for approval. Heron expects to submit this second sNDA in the second half of this year. If approved, this sNDA number would expand the label to cover 14M target procedures. Furthermore, Heron is quickly accruing formulary approvals for ZYNRELEF in hospitals and IDNs with this number more than doubling and has grown to 260 approvals through February 25th. What is more, in excess of 90% of hospital P&T committees are putting ZYNRELEF on their formulary, and over 60% of the company’s approvals are for unrestricted use. ZYNRELEF has over 100 additional P&T committees scheduled before the end of the quarter. Obviously, new formulary approvals will help drive sales of ZYNRELEF. ZENRELEF Formulary Approvals ZENRELEF Formulary Approvals (Heron Therapeutics) In addition, Heron is seeing growth and the number of unique ordering accounts and growth in reorder rates. In fact, the company reported that the number of unique ordering accounts has gone from 309 at the end of 2021 to over 400 accounts through February 25th. Furthermore, ZYNRELEF’s demand unit volume surged by 126% in Q4 over Q3. As a result, Heron is seeing an increase in demand for ZYNRELEF on a quarterly and monthly basis. Chart of ZENRELEF Demand Growth ZENRELEF Demand Growth (Heron Therapeutics) Another important opportunity is the company's new supplemental supplier for their proprietary polymer, which will increase batch sizes for both, ZYNRELEF and CINVANTI. This will let the company manufacture adequate amounts of these products at considerably lower COGs. Heron also has a pending NDA for HTX-019 for postoperative nausea and vomiting. This is a major opportunity considering the PONV opportunity is about 25x CINV, and HTX-019 has notable advantages over existing products. The FDA has accepted the NDA and gave the company a PDUFA date of September 17th of this year. So, it is possible that Heron could be launching HTX-019 in the Q4 of this year. The company believes the commercial opportunity for HTX-019 is substantial and could hit several hundred million dollars at sales peak. Chart of Heron Therapeutics Pipeline Heron Therapeutics Pipeline (Heron Therapeutics) To recap, Heron has a few regulatory decisions that could improve ZYNRELEF’s label and possibly add HTX-019 to the list of the company’s approved drugs. In addition, the company is increasing demand in ZYNRELEF as the drug continues to record formulary wins and increases in usage. It is not guaranteed, but it looks as if the company is bound to experience significant growth in the coming years. Therefore, I am bullish on the company’s long-term prospects… especially at these prices. Risks My biggest concern for Heron has been the impact of COVID-19 on cancer treatment and elective surgeries markets. The company admitted that the Omicron surge stunted the ZYNRELEF growth in December and January. Luckily, the Omicron surge appears to be subsiding and Heron has reported a substantial increase in ZYNRELEF demand volume in February, with a 42% increase over January’s levels. Hopefully, the worst of the pandemic is behind us, however, it is possible another variant emerges and public policies have a negative impact on cancer treatments and elective surgeries. In addition, it could delay P&T committees, which will slow ZENRELEF’s adoption in hospitals and surgical centers. Changing Strategy In my previous article, I was looking for a potential for a higher low or even a double bottom setup. In addition, I was eyeing a potential bullish divergence in the RSI if the share price dips slightly below the previous low while the RSI would show some strength. I was hoping we would see a reversal, but the share price never broke the downtrend that was established back in mid-May. HRTX Daily Chart HRTX Daily Chart (Trendspider) Enhanced View Trendspider Instead of waiting for a technical breakout, I am looking to accumulate HRTX based on valuation and will use a Dollar Cost Averaging “DCA” strategy over the coming quarters to take advantage of the discounted value. I am looking to use the industry’s average price-to-sales of 5x and the Street’s revenue low-end estimate for 2025 of $264.30M along with a discount for time and error. HRTX Revenue Estimates HRTX Revenue Estimates (Seeking Alpha) As a result, I get a discounted value of around $6.50 per share. Considering HRTX is trading under $6 per share, I am starting to look for a technical signal of a bottom or a reversal. I am going to use $6.50 as my buy threshold between now and the company’s next earnings report. Admittedly, I am not looking to amass a huge position in HRTX at this time, but rather, I am simply looking to bring DCA below $7 per share. This will allow me to book some profits once the sector catches a bid and the company moves through their expected 2022 catalysts. Long-term, I am attempting to get my HRTX position into a “house money” condition as soon as possible and will hold the remaining shares for a long-term investment. Thank you for reading my research on Seeking Alpha. If you want to learn even more about my method and how I discover these investment opportunities, please check out my subscription marketplace service, Compounding Healthcare, and sign up for a free trial.
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4 March 2022, 04:22 AM | #9169 |
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4 March 2022, 08:39 AM | #9170 | |
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Have you been buying anything during this selloff? At this pace, looking more like a reno trip
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4 March 2022, 10:42 AM | #9171 |
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Yes, lots of bourbon and tequila haha. And also a potential timepiece incoming early next week.... gotta ease the pain somehow haha.
But in seriousness, I rolled my SABR, COTY and SOFI into 2024 calls all at or ITM - been averaging down on those slowly. I did buy a bit of AUPH but I'm far OTM currently. Also bought very small positions in NKE and GM calls with expiry later this year - I like these both for a sharp recovery when the pain ends. I've also been buying AMD shares and selling covered calls against them - pays for the bourbon haha. |
5 March 2022, 06:14 AM | #9172 |
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Reno trip very quickly turning into a zoom hangout with PokerStars.com
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5 March 2022, 07:48 AM | #9173 |
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5 March 2022, 07:50 AM | #9174 |
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7 March 2022, 04:34 AM | #9175 |
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Worthwhile 10 minute watch from the legendary Peter Lynch...a lot of things we discuss on here often but I think a good reminder that, these times shall pass too. Keep your heads up boys.
https://youtu.be/YwPbL9W-yv0
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7 March 2022, 05:00 AM | #9176 |
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Worthwhile 10 minute watch from the legendary Peter Lynch...a lot of things we discuss on here often but I think a good reminder that, these times shall pass too. Keep your heads up boys.
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8 March 2022, 12:54 AM | #9177 |
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SST hit $17 earlier, waiting for warrants to start catching up though. not sure if they even moved since it was like 12 right? haven't followed them too much
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8 March 2022, 04:34 AM | #9178 |
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Airlines and travel stocks?
I just bought UAL and DAL, bought CCL and NCLH last week, which are all down around 7% today.
In English, that's United Airlines, Delta Airlines, Carnival Cruise Lines and Norwegian Cruise Lines. They are all down d/t fears about rising fuel prices. I'm thinking/hoping/guessing that demand will continue to be strong enough that they can raise prices to accommodate their higher costs. Or, that oil will go down and these will go up. I don't recommend this action to anyone without a huge appetite for holding garbage, as it may be a while before it turns around. Longer if we get another CV-19 wave. In hindsight, I might have better luck at the craps table.
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8 March 2022, 04:48 AM | #9179 | |
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8 March 2022, 06:29 AM | #9180 |
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Looking to average down on my SE shares as it looks really cheap right now in the ~$90 range. However, still don't know how low these stocks will go in this environment. @JPeezy - would love to get your thoughts as I know you were fairly bullish on this company a while back.
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