Talking Stocks 2.0

[m j b]

Originally Posted by RidingDonkeys

Watching SOFI this low is hard. Just took advantage to average down a bit.

Me too. I will continue to add to it if it continues to drop.

Sold my airlines and cruise lines yesterday. Or Wednesday. Who can remember? After they popped back up. I'm not holding on to that garbage long-term.

[vipereaper30]

So I'm probably not in the club on this thought but I think we're still incredibly overvalued in a lot of areas. With all of the external factors at play we should all stay alert and agile.

Easier said than done but I'm hoping for the best here while trying to be prepared for the worst!

[RidingDonkeys]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

So I'm probably not in the club on this thought but I think we're still incredibly overvalued in a lot of areas. With all of the external factors at play we should all stay alert and agile.

Easier said than done but I'm hoping for the best here while trying to be prepared for the worst!

I think most of us agree with you. There is still a long way to fall for a lot of stocks. I'm looking for the stocks that are undervalued. In today's market, I'm mostly seeing those in the finance sector. I'm happy to pick up SOFI and NU at 52-week lows. I think both are solid long-term plays.

There are some biotechnology plays to be had too. I think AUPH is undervalued after the recent devaluation play. KNSA at under $10 is a bargain too.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by RidingDonkeys

I'm happy to pick up SOFI and NU at 52-week lows.

SOFI is getting hammered again today.

I guess I'll keep lowering my cost basis until my entire portfolio is made up of stocks that are sometimes referred to as "catching a falling knife".

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

SOFI is getting hammered again today.

I guess I'll keep lowering my cost basis until my entire portfolio is made up of stocks that are sometimes referred to as "catching a falling knife".

https://seekingalpha.com/article/449...nvestors-avoid

[RidingDonkeys]

Originally Posted by m j b

SOFI is getting hammered again today.



I guess I'll keep lowering my cost basis until my entire portfolio is made up of stocks that are sometimes referred to as "catching a falling knife".

Yeah, this is brutal.

Sent from the voices in my head and transcribed by their drinking buddy.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://seekingalpha.com/article/449...nvestors-avoid

Thank you for that. I wish I had done my due diligence a bit more diligently.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by beshannon

https://seekingalpha.com/article/449...nvestors-avoid

Thanks for that.. I completely overlooked their stock compensation but to me that still doesnt explain the more recent daily bleeding because the compensations been happening since ipo inception. Either way, averaging down on Sofi has been like throwing salt on the wounds


A company caught my interest recently and seeing if anybody here has more information or insight into if they're legitimate and offer any real noteworthy IP in that space.

NNDM, Nano Dimension is an Israeli based 3D printing company. I know very little of this world and if they even offer any type of moat in the 3D printing space. Quantitatively though, they're a $800m MC company with minimal revenue (maybe $6m per annum), negligible debt (>$4m), losing money and projecting amazing growth rates for the forseeable future like most growth up and comers do. I believe they've diluted recently as well to help bring the SP down to where it is now. Highs last year were around $8 but thats unimportant since it was in an overpriced bull market.

Now that thats done with, what does have me interested is their cash. Cash on their balance sheet sits at over $1.3b, approx 1.5x their MC. Sure they're losing money currently but their burn rate seems to be completely sustainable for quite a few years even without any revenue. Cash per share sits at around $5.32, while stock price is just over $3 currently. Kind of a rare situation here and curious to know if anybody has more insight into NNDM and how they compare tech wise vs their competitors.

Anyway, I started a small position just to watch it closer.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

Thanks for that.. I completely overlooked their stock compensation but to me that still doesnt explain the more recent daily bleeding because the compensations been happening since ipo inception. Either way, averaging down on Sofi has been like throwing salt on the wounds

yeah i think it's just collateral damage from the massive sell offs except it's worse since it was definitely overvalued before. it also has the spac stink, especially since it's associated with Chamath and all his spacs have gone to almost 0 lol

going to be a brutal year, retail is long gone now and there's no one left to buy dips

[chsu74]

I bought more SOFI last Fri at $8.62 because it was attractive but man is it a better buy today...

Been watching the credit market closely today and it continues to break down. An old trader told me that credit market foreshadows the equity market. HYG closing below $80 signals me to not buy the dip anymore right now as we may see lower prices still.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

I bought more SOFI last Fri at $8.62 because it was attractive but man is it a better buy today...

Been watching the credit market closely today and it continues to break down. An old trader told me that credit market foreshadows the equity market. HYG closing below $80 signals me to not buy the dip anymore right now as we may see lower prices still.

fomc tomorrow/weds as well, so market is derisking. will be a crazy week but then again every week is now

[-dustin]

"4 Top Stock Trades for Monday: AMD, TSLA, NIO, SOFI"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/4-top...212904980.html

That didn't age well.

[bin31z]

Don't know what's more overvalued, stocks or watches lol

[asloper6001]

Bloomberg terminals today...

[Xelorpepsi]

Let's see how the FOMC meeting on March 15-16 goes. The markets are anticipating that the FED will increase the federal funds rate by 25 bps, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had to increase to 50 bps instead to tame inflation. If so, we could have a few challenging and volatile days ahead of us.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by Xelorpepsi

Let's see how the FOMC meeting on March 15-16 goes. The markets are anticipating that the FED will increase the federal funds rate by 25 bps, but I wouldn't be surprised if they had to increase to 50 bps instead to tame inflation. If so, we could have a few challenging and volatile days ahead of us.

Obviously 1 day left to go before all bets are off the table, but I am genuinely impressed with Powell as a political operator and a communicator (and in addition to that a leader/consensus builder within the Fed). This was shown in spades with how well he worked with the government through Covid and how fast he moved generally. I really don't think he will backtrack on the telegraphed 25 bps only and the fireworks that remain are what the new forward guidance given.

In other news, I find it comical what AMC is doing, what should we do with all of this Meme cash? Let's invest in precious metal miners! But seriously, way more impressed with the AMC board then the Gamestop board.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Obviously 1 day left to go before all bets are off the table, but I am genuinely impressed with Powell as a political operator and a communicator (and in addition to that a leader/consensus builder within the Fed). This was shown in spades with how well he worked with the government through Covid and how fast he moved generally. I really don't think he will backtrack on the telegraphed 25 bps only and the fireworks that remain are what the new forward guidance given.

In other news, I find it comical what AMC is doing, what should we do with all of this Meme cash? Let's invest in precious metal miners! But seriously, way more impressed with the AMC board then the Gamestop board.

I'm not sure I'm all that impressed with either Powell or Yellen. All that quantitative easing has only increased the potential for asset class bubbles and ultimately stagflation. It seems like they're only raising rates now, so they can lower later in the event of a recession without having to go negative. It's like they never heard of Japan's "lost decade", and they consider themselves students of the markets. They have both caved to pressure from elected officials over the last 13 or so years to keep the bubble from bursting under their time.

Powell and Yellen have both destroyed the real market safety net, which was driven by traders focusing on fundamentals. They prefer the basket trading that rewards the worst fundamental offenders. In other words free capital to poor fundamentals. I guess that is a way to artificially prop up markets if that was their goal. But like a sling shot, the more you pull one way the harder it goes back the other direction. It will be interesting when they decide it's time to let it crash, but seems more like they care about inflation helping to offset exuberant spending/debt. So in other words, seems like they are caving to elected officials desires to prop up markets forever. Corrections are natural. Bubbles are not. Yellen and Powell essentially made "meme" markets. Imo at least.

P.S. The general consensus is that unemployment rates are low. Just not true, but rather a nature of the data. Stimulus timing makes it seem like new jobs are being created and less unemployed (as both incentivized to go back to work and those that are not are greater than 12 months out of work now). For appearances that's a win win. Both more people going back to work after being paid more to stay home and more people falling out of the "workforce" for employment purposes compared to 1 year ago. We ought to really see figures start to look artificially good in late Summer/early Fall.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stim...e-way-tomorrow


Also, many were forced out of their jobs and/or quit last Fall. So those folks will either come back into the workforce making job creation look better and/or fall out of the actively searching category which will also reduce paper unemployment this Fall. I expect this false "job creation" to be a big talking point of those talking heads/fools i.e. the Jim Cramers of the world. With the age demographics we probably won't see a number of the Boomers that left/let go from prior jobs, enter back into the workforce. That will artificially show unemployment being lower going forward.

[macrowatch]

904VT, thank you for that thoughtful reply. I’ll preface my response with my opinions are only worth whatever an armchair Monday Quarterback is worth vs a pro. My only valid opinion is Daytona’s are sexy watches.

So that said, I was not a fan of Yellen or Bernake. At the same time, I don’t think I could fault Powell for continuity of policy, ie QE when it’s already in place for years before his term. But I am impressed by his execution and coordination of the central bank with the government to get things done in 2020. I’ve appreciated his communication style and no nonsense rather than intentional ambiguity the two predessors liked to communicate in. The only Fed banker I’ve been more impressed by was Kaplan.

My wistful thinking is if we had someone like Powell earlier, maybe we wouldn’t have needed QE infinity. But all wishful thinking anyways and in the meantime I am short volatility and long Daytona’s.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

904VT, thank you for that thoughtful reply. I’ll preface my response with my opinions are only worth whatever an armchair Monday Quarterback is worth vs a pro. My only valid opinion is Daytona’s are sexy watches.

So that said, I was not a fan of Yellen or Bernake. At the same time, I don’t think I could fault Powell for continuity of policy, ie QE when it’s already in place for years before his term. But I am impressed by his execution and coordination of the central bank with the government to get things done in 2020. I’ve appreciated his communication style and no nonsense rather than intentional ambiguity the two predessors liked to communicate in. The only Fed banker I’ve been more impressed by was Kaplan.

My wistful thinking is if we had someone like Powell earlier, maybe we wouldn’t have needed QE infinity. But all wishful thinking anyways and in the meantime I am short volatility and long Daytona’s.

Yes, great points as well my friend.

And I agree, Powell came in as the 9th inning relief pitcher for a team that was already down big. He has done a much better job than Yellen. Imo at least she bears the brunt of the blame. QE should’ve been over by the early 2010s and absolutely by 2014. She’s a failed dove.

[huncho]

i have a very very very strong dislike for Yellen (and Warren as well, since she speaks out a lot about financial markets). think you guys are spot on about Powell though, not sure how they dig themselves out of this hole but i guess we've got no choice but to strap in for the ride lol. i don't know much, if anything, about economics or markets though so pretty much my opinions are worth nothing most of the time

[thenewrick]

Buy the dips and hold forever. Diversify and apply this strategy to different assets. Don’t spend money on experiences.

Or if you’re rich blow it all on a yacht because you’re made :D

Current climate.. buy anything you can at good value and keep buying. Hold no cash and continue until strong bull market. Then start hoarding cash again.

It’s not fun and takes a long time but it’ll get you there

[chsu74]

SOFI - dilution and expenses are an issue. Both issues can be fixed. Question is: will it be fixed and how long will it take?

https://investorplace.com/2022/03/wh...nt-impressive/

[enjoythemusic]

Let's hope the Fed goes to 4% interest rates, as this is only a paltry 50% of the BLS' claimed 8% currency devaluation / inflation. We know in reality inflation is at least 10% for the average person, so 4% seems like a good-ish middle-gound.

10% interest rate would be very fair to help savers / users of their currency product, plus it would assist in this highly unstable and devalued product we know as the Federal Reserve Dollar Debt Note.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chsu74

SOFI - dilution and expenses are an issue. Both issues can be fixed. Question is: will it be fixed and how long will it take?

https://investorplace.com/2022/03/wh...nt-impressive/

A bigger question is why would you want to put your capital here? Too many looking for hype stocks and home runs, just like the watch market.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by beshannon

A bigger question is why would you want to put your capital here? Too many looking for hype stocks and home runs, just like the watch market.

Because tulips are played out?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Because tulips are played out?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Because tulips are played out?

Like today's Nickel and Oil traders, they'll get bailed out if things get really bad.

Let's Celebrate: Too big to fail is back baby!

P to E ratio needs to be 7 to at most 10, it's still highly overly speculative. Be TBTF and you'll be fine. CNBC is talking up the Fed Put right now, trade accordingly.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Like today's Nickel and Oil traders, they'll get bailed out if things get really bad.

Let's Celebrate: Too big to fail is back baby!

P to E ratio needs to be 7 to at most 10, it's still highly overly speculative. Be TBTF and you'll be fine. CNBC is talking up the Fed Put right now, trade accordingly.

Nothing has changed.

Owe bank a million dollars; you have a problem.
Owe bank a billion dollars; the bank has a problem.

M2 increased 40% from COVID QE. Nothing happens overnight.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Nothing has changed.

Bernake was right, we'll never see normal rates ever again. Sad to see the very high taxation via currency devaluation as Bernake admitted in front of congress years ago too. There's zero true accountability, trade accordingly.

Anyone thinking prices are going down in any meaningful way doesn't understand currencies. The good news is that oil may soon trade in a wider variety of currencies.

[superdog]

Help me out here.

Markets eat and egg when they’re is speculation of a rate hike.

Rates are hiked and they go down further. It was a good day prior. What was expected? No rate hike? No. Of course not.

So why the turn?

Now markets move on both news and actions? Smh