Talking Stocks 2.0

[superdog]

And it’s back up again. Mostly. Please disregard the above.

I’ll never understand all this.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’ll never understand all this.

I used to understand it. Or at least, I thought I did.

Now, it often makes no sense. Companies announce fantastic earnings and the price falls. Other companies miss estimates and the stock goes up.


.

[enjoythemusic]

Question: If we have ~8% inflation, yet only 3% annual growth (Powell says 2.8% is a "strong economy"), doesn't that mean a decline of 5% in real terms?

[vipereaper30]

One of the side effects of not allowing a market to be free. Inefficient use and allocation of resources with corresponding detachment from fundamentals.

Good luck out there!

[enjoythemusic]

So with today's decision, all FDIC banks will be raising the interest rate paid to depositors by 0.25%, yes?

[m j b]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

So with today's decision, all FDIC banks will be raising the interest rate paid to depositors by 0.25%, yes?

Right. So that means that I'll start to get... 0.26% now.

Mortgage rates go up 2.5% and credit card rates go to 25%.

[enjoythemusic]

Hmm, i heard banks do not have to pass along the additional 0.25% to depositors / savers. Anyone know?

[m j b]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Hmm, i heard banks do not have to pass along the additional 0.25% to depositors / savers. Anyone know?

Right. All the Fed does is set the rate at which they loan money to the banks. How the banks set their rates is totally up to them, within the limitations of the law, of course (think loansharking).

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

And it’s back up again. Mostly. Please disregard the above.

I’ll never understand all this.

This was position covering and squaring with people making very short term trades.

If you are long term ignore the noise, the hike was priced in.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

So with today's decision, all FDIC banks will be raising the interest rate paid to depositors by 0.25%, yes?

Not at all.

What a bank pays for deposits is determined by their need for capital and what they want to pay for capital to lend. I would expect little to no change in saving/checking rates

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by m j b

Right. So that means that I'll start to get... 0.26% now.



Mortgage rates go up 2.5% and credit card rates go to 25%.

[Letsgodiving]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not at all.

What a bank pays for deposits is determined by their need for capital and what they want to pay for capital to lend. I would expect little to no change in saving/checking rates

Yes, most banks are pretty flush with funds these days so there is little incentive to raise rates any time soon.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Not at all.

What a bank pays for deposits is determined by their need for capital and what they want to pay for capital to lend. I would expect little to no change in saving/checking rates

So are they not raising loan rates in that case?

If they are raising loan rates and not saving rates, then why use a bank or currency that loses value in a system that harshly works against users (regardless of what Fed Chair Powell says about their central banking scheme)?

Doesn't this make the unbanked the smarter users of the Federal Reserve's currency product?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

So are they not raising loan rates in that case?

If they are raising loan rates and not saving rates, then why use a bank or currency that loses value in a system that harshly works against users (regardless of what Fed Chair Powell says about their central banking scheme)?

Doesn't this make the unbanked the smarter users of the Federal Reserve's currency product?

Of course they will raise loan rates. Don't use a bank if you can move money around by yourself. Smarter? Well I guess that depends on whether you can live without banking. In my experience those people spend more on fees and time than what it is worth

[enjoythemusic]

Excellent points. So only keep minimum in bank to avoid fees.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

So I'm probably not in the club on this thought but I think we're still incredibly overvalued in a lot of areas. With all of the external factors at play we should all stay alert and agile.

Easier said than done but I'm hoping for the best here while trying to be prepared for the worst!

It's interesting, I was having this same conversation with a client today. Denoting that at, even an index level, stocks are still historically expensive. Looking under the hood, there are many stocks on sale, 60-80% off their highs. Many rightfully so given how expensive and high P/S multiples were, then you had many stocks unnecessarily and disproportionately oversold - the ole baby out with the bath water analogy (always hated this saying).

What I find particularly interesting, and I know many of you will too based on private conversations, is COVID growth premium is completely eradicated. The Growth valuation relative to value is back to where we started before COVID and is BELOW long-term average. Second chart on the right shows percent of unprofitable tech stocks is in parallel to where we were prior to the tech bubble.

Making the case for being selective but there are many opportunities for investors who can handle the volatility, stay invested long term, conviction to DCA and not need constant gratification.

On a side note Vipereaper, looking like 2026 for our Vegas bcrx/auph dinner at this pace.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Excellent points. So only keep minimum in bank to avoid fees.

Other than a brokerage, what is the choice for cash besides a bank? Your mattress? They lend at high rates, pay savers as little as possible.

[BroncoOne]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Other than a brokerage, what is the choice for cash besides a bank? Your mattress? They lend at high rates, pay savers as little as possible.

stocks that have a history of consistent earnings and dividend growth.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Other than a brokerage, what is the choice for cash besides a bank?

Currency is a guaranteed loser. Avoid them as much as possible.

[scarlet knight]

Do other investors hold cash? We are older investors/younger retirees and we hold 10-15% in cash. The last three months in stocks have been rocky. With multiple expected rate increases, not sure stocks are going straight up.

P.S. take a look at US I bonds. Up to $10k at 7% interest.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Do other investors hold cash? We are older investors/younger retirees and we hold 10-15% in cash. The last three months in stocks have been rocky. With multiple expected rate increases, not sure stocks are going straight up.

P.S. take a look at US I bonds. Up to $10k at 7% interest.

i'm 30 and on the super aggressive end and basically only hold enough cash to pay bills for 2 months. most people my age aren't investing at all and either blow their money going out or are very aggressively saving which i find sad (or even worse, are still in debt). the few ive spoken to about it aren't even aware of how bad inflation is or any of the other economic issues going on now, but i tend to avoid these topics unless it's with close friends

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Do other investors hold cash? We are older investors/younger retirees and we hold 10-15% in cash. The last three months in stocks have been rocky. With multiple expected rate increases, not sure stocks are going straight up.

P.S. take a look at US I bonds. Up to $10k at 7% interest.

Yes of course

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

i'm 30 and on the super aggressive end and basically only hold enough cash to pay bills for 2 months. most people my age aren't investing at all and either blow their money going out or are very aggressively saving which i find sad (or even worse, are still in debt). the few ive spoken to about it aren't even aware of how bad inflation is or any of the other economic issues going on now, but i tend to avoid these topics unless it's with close friends

Well done! As long as you are employed with a steady income, this is a smart and fast way to achieve financial independence. Investing regardless of market is low or high is the way.

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by huncho

most people my age aren't investing at all

That's wild to hear. I'm only 4 years older and the amount of unsolicited investing advice I get from people in our age bracket is astounding especially when the rest of their financial wheelhouse is a wreck.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Well done! As long as you are employed with a steady income, this is a smart and fast way to achieve financial independence. Investing regardless of market is low or high is the way.

yeah the last few years i quickly realized it's definitely the way to go. majority of my money is in crypto though so remains to be seen if it's smart or not lol

Originally Posted by sokoloka

That's wild to hear. I'm only 4 years older and the amount of unsolicited investing advice I get from people in our age bracket is astounding especially when the rest of their financial wheelhouse is a wreck.

i just picture people advising buying gme and amc lol. i wonder how many of those people giving advice are even around anymore though. the most common advice i hear is buy a house but i disagree that it's actually an investment when it's your primary residence

i blame schools, i think it should be taught in every school so people aren't thrown into the real world with financial ignorance (myself included)

[7sins]

Originally Posted by beshannon

A bigger question is why would you want to put your capital here? Too many looking for hype stocks and home runs, just like the watch market.

If I may, in a friendly and politely manner, play devils advocate for a positive thesis here on SOFI. Perhaps a gentelman's fun wager is in order, if SOFI moves past $11 by year end, a meaningful 24% move from here I select a tequila bottle of my choice within reason and vice versa, should we not hit $11 from here by year end, a bottle of liquor at your discretion - lets say under $200?

Few of my thoughts and .02 with change to spare on SOFI:

1. As the FED raises the FED funds rate, the PRIME rate will rise. Now SOFI is officially a bank. They will be able to charge more money for their lending, specifically mortgage lending which has higher margins. Ultimately, by charging more money and higher margins, this will generate more revenue for SOFI to offset their current high P/S. Lets not forget the bank charter will allow them to offer MUCH MORE competitive rates, this is a big deal.

2. Yes P/S is not screamingly cheap at 7.6 but certainly much more in line than last year with significantly more upside growth. You would expect this from an early stage company that is spending money to GROW. As noted in point one, as their revenue continues to grow, now at a heightened pace with bank charter, their P/S will come down. Prior to bank charter, this was a more difficult challenge as they re-packed and outsourced all lending.

3. On a more favorable metric, P/B is strong at 1.03, where other banks are higher at 1.5-2+. Similar competitors to SOFI, or close such as UPST trade at a 10+ P/B. The lower the P/B the better.

4. Speaking of improving margins, SoFi sees material improvements in platform profitability going forward and projects that its adjusted EBITDA margin will go from 3% in FY 2021 to 11% in FY 2022. This is meaningful

5. Record growth in new members (523k QoQ) which is 87% YoY growth. With a substantial uptick in Q4. This is meaningful, yes marketing expenses are high and you are paying for new member acquisition which will come to fruition in the years to come. It is a mistake to extrapolate and assuming those marketing expenses as a part of revenue will be static, if revenue keeps growing than your % of marketing expenses is lower. Also there comes to a point where less marketing is needed as they have more brand recognition. Side note now 100M+ Galileo accounts, up ~70% from the beginning of 2021, this will become more important as they continue to vertically integrate many of their platforms.

6. Revenue was positive up over 50% clipping $1b for the for the first time and finally a positive EBITDA (*adjusted)


7. Noto is a tremendous CEO and industry leader, if you work in finance then you know he helped underwrite the twitter deal at GS with tremendous experience. Have complete faith in him unlike another CEO I frequently mention here. More importantly, he has accumulated $8m+ worth of shares in March alone, I find insider buying is always a positive reinforcement and belief internally in the company. https://fintel.io/n/us/sofi/noto-anthony. If he is purchasing this amount of shares I would argue he seems tremendous value at this price. I would not bet against Noto.

8. I would not rely on any content from SA, Investor Palace, Simply Wallstreet etc. There is often little to no credibility, littered with inaccuracies, conflicted articles and highly dependent on the writer. They are often written as "click" articles or "hit pieces" to influence the stock price, they often leave out imperative data. Nor should you trust someone named 7sins on a watch form, always do you your own due diligence.

9. Financial service product services is exponentially growing and I think further upside. Especially when their platform allows options and just a better GUI IMO, seems their app ranking continues to improve in the app store. I've spent time reading reviews on their platform and the general consensus is clients are happy. There WILL be a migration from big banks like JPM, BAC into a sofi platform, especially the younger generation.


10. The student loan moratorium is only on federal loans & is accounts for less than 5% of SOFI revenue, this is meaningless as their revenue should dramatically increase with the aforementioned lending - I do agree this will take TIME to let the new lending via bank charter implement. However the archaic and dinosaur days of legacy banking are transforming/subsiding.

11. On March 3, 2022, we completed the acquisition of Technisys, a leading cloud-native, digital multi-product core banking platform. We believe that the acquisition of Technisys adds a strategic technology and business for us in our ambition to be a one-stop-shop financial services platform, and strengthens our ability to execute on our Financial Services Productivity Loop strategy. The combined technology stack of Galileo and Technisys will create what we expect to be the only end-to-end vertically integrated banking technology stack, from user interface development capabilities to a customizable multi-product banking core and ledger with fully integrated processing and card issuing available for our products and Galileo/Technisys partners. Together, we expect Galileo and Technisys to meet both the expanding needs of their existing partners, as well as serve additional established banks, fintech companies and non-financial brands looking to enter financial services.


I bring the above into account because these purchases are accounting for their stock dilution. Which I think would be better accessed through the fixed income markets but confident this is money well spent.

12. The obvious risks here are there is not a meaningful MOAT to their business, although I would argue their cost of operation is much lower being an online solution. They will need to continue to innovate, they need to improve their trading platform and they need to finally institute option trading. I do believe Noto will be firing on all cylinders to push SOFI to a leader in the industry.

No one can predict short term volatility, I DO believe that there is plenty of sustained long term growth in this company over the next few years as they have member expansion and continue to grow. I have complete and utter confidence in my thesis here and is why I continue to DCA all the way down. What a surprise big banks start downgrading sofi after their bank charter, JPM and BAC I am talking to you. I'm willing to wait this out as long as I need, all about patience, DCA, writing covered calls. This will be a long term winner IMO. Not financial advice.

Nato ended the last ER with the below comments, this is a leader I can stand behind unlike our useless AUPH PG CEO.
This is how Noto ended the Q4 Earnings Conference Call:
“Not only have we managed to exceed our already ambitious goals, we've accomplished more in one year, than most companies achieve in their lifetime. As we've turned the page on 2021, 2022 has started off with an even more volatile environment with greater uncertainty.
The fog of uncertainty excites me. It creates the greatest opportunities for those who dare to win. It's when leadership matters most because it's when the winners who will take the most are decided.
I love our team. I love our strategy. I love our company. And I love where I work. I wake up every day trying to be a better leader than the day before and reminding myself that who dares, wins.
For the first time in four years, I also wake up every day, knowing the only thing between us and realizing our ambitions is us. I would take that setup any day of the week and twice on Sundays.”

[sokoloka]

Originally Posted by huncho

i just picture people advising buying gme and amc lol. i wonder how many of those people giving advice are even around anymore though. the most common advice i hear is buy a house but i disagree that it's actually an investment when it's your primary residence

ATEC man. Only ticker you need to know.

[Zack21]

Sokoloka: Can you shed a little light on why you are bullish on ATEC? Thanks.

[acebelt]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Do other investors hold cash? We are older investors/younger retirees and we hold 10-15% in cash. The last three months in stocks have been rocky. With multiple expected rate increases, not sure stocks are going straight up.

P.S. take a look at US I bonds. Up to $10k at 7% interest.

I've been putting most of my cash into the market to DCA and have very little left besides a month or two of expenses. I'm also 27, so my time horizon is quite long and I've held through volatility before. Plus the more it grows over time, the more watches I can buy in the future (hopefully)

7.12% interest on I bonds is quite attractive currently. Rate will change in May but with inflation where it is, even after a fed rate increase, I don't think the composite rate would drop by much, if at all.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 7sins

If I may, in a friendly and politely manner, play devils advocate for a positive thesis here on SOFI. Perhaps a gentelman's fun wager is in order, if SOFI moves past $11 by year end, a meaningful 24% move from here I select a tequila bottle of my choice within reason and vice versa, should we not hit $11 from here by year end, a bottle of liquor at your discretion - lets say under $200?

man loves his tequila