Talking Stocks 2.0

[7sins]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

We own municipal bonds as part of our portfolio. Our advisor is now pursuing tax loss swaps for us. We are going to sell older bonds that yield a lower rate, such as 2.5%, generate a capital loss, then replace that bond with a higher yielding bond at 4%.

Our advisor gets multiple transactions, we get a higher yielding portfolio and some capital losses to offset other gains.

Just be careful on bid/ask spreads to sell and markups (these can be 2-3% and are hidden fees) on buys. There is not much liquidity in the muni market, so it may cost 2-3% in spread to sell the bond IE current price is 105 next best bid is 102. That loss to sell does not make up for the delta in book yield. Make sure he quotes you book yield and YTW (yield to worst), coupon is disingenuous if not purchased at par. Also be careful of extension risk on what he buys. Muni bonds are very complicated, I hope you have an experienced FA.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by spurwar

I have some Jan '23 $12s and $15s. Have been holding patiently through the ups and downs but wanted to see what the best strategy would be at this point. Is it worth rolling into Jan '24 calls or would you wait a little longer (~6 months until expiry) to see if the sector turns?

If you have stock I would be writing covered calls to lower your CB. Plenty of tailwinds going into summer with business travel picking up. I would roll your $15s to 24 to play it safe. Can’t imagine not b/e on the 12s by year end, I was on their ER call, it was incredibly optimistic and a great outlook, very peculiar reaction.

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Great explanation - thank you! What are AA muni's at par yielding right now?

With regard to a recession, who knows when it will happen, but I still think there's inflation on the horizon. The US still hasn't spent any of the $1.2T infrastructure money passed and still hasn't spent $$ from previous relief bills. The Fed will shave some demand with their hikes, but they can't do anything about the supply side such as chip issues, opening ports or drilling for more oil. Just my .02.

That depends, what call and maturity date? Very few bonds issued at par and or if they are they are lower coupon bonds. Premium bonds are actually a positive as they are less interest rate sensitive.

[m j b]

The market giveth, and the market taketh away.

LOL. I was all tied-up in meetings yesterday and couldn't trade. It's just as well.

[huncho]

i had a feeling the green wouldn't last but thought it would be worse yesterday. i didn't see how we would take the news of the runoff well but luckily it was followed by confirmation that 0.75 wasn't on their radar

anyone here can explain if what they said about their plans to taper should be viewed as good? or is it aggressive and bearish

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Just be careful on bid/ask spreads to sell and markups (these can be 2-3% and are hidden fees) on buys. There is not much liquidity in the muni market, so it may cost 2-3% in spread to sell the bond IE current price is 105 next best bid is 102. That loss to sell does not make up for the delta in book yield. Make sure he quotes you book yield and YTW (yield to worst), coupon is disingenuous if not purchased at par. Also be careful of extension risk on what he buys. Muni bonds are very complicated, I hope you have an experienced FA.

Our FA has been working with us for approximately 20 years. He has had some great calls. Kept us out of Puerto Rican bonds, sold us out of inherited Puerto Rican bonds at great prices before their bankruptcy.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by huncho

anyone here can explain if what they said about their plans to taper should be viewed as good? or is it aggressive and bearish

My interpretation is that yesterday this was good, and then after people thought about it for a while, they decided that it was bad.

Personally, I think that the world economy is in trouble, largely due to continued supply chain issues contributed to by the war, and of course, the virus. So we're going to continue to drop from these historically ridiculous prices (based on all normal criteria) for a while yet.

Of course, I've been beating that drum for several years now, and so far, I've been very wrong. Hence the popularity of the rapidly successful anti-mjb inverse ETF.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by m j b

My interpretation is that yesterday this was good, and then after people thought about it for a while, they decided that it was bad.

Personally, I think that the world economy is in trouble, largely due to continued supply chain issues contributed to by the war, and of course, the virus. So we're going to continue to drop from these historically ridiculous prices (based on all normal criteria) for a while yet.

Of course, I've been beating that drum for several years now, and so far, I've been very wrong. Hence the popularity of the rapidly successful anti-mjb inverse ETF.

i think so too, seems like the 0.75 comment was a temporary cause for the rally until the rest was digested, but bonds go over my head lol

[strettyend]

Getting close to tapping out here. Risks seem asymmetrically to the downside and don’t have any faith in a soft landing

[superdog]

Originally Posted by strettyend

Getting close to tapping out here. Risks seem asymmetrically to the downside and don’t have any faith in a soft landing

no chance this will end well.

way too many headwinds. cutting losses and reducing overall holdings, imho, is the smart way to go. have a good cash reserve for opportunity in the future.

geopolitical, covid, inflation, work force challenges, focus on automation to reduce workforce, china shut downs, climate change, reduction of natural resources, and a ridiculous amount of political infighting and corruption in the US....among all sorts of other things.

soft landing is a pipe dream. history is NOT always the best indicator of the future. what is happening today is unprecedented on global scale.

predictions of oil being $160 to $200 a barrel? that becomes a global depression. not that I tend to believe predictions, but I am hard pressed to find reasons as to how this will not happen. $200, likely not, but certainly well north of $100.

the world has been living FAT for the last decade. the standard of living we have come to know is going to shift in the opposite direction. how can it not?

conserve capital, and prepare.

I am not saying sell it all. but to reduce risk and be prepared with cash to capitalize when the time is right seems the best way to combat inflation and position yourself properly for the future.

just my .$.02

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by 7sins

That depends, what call and maturity date? Very few bonds issued at par and or if they are they are lower coupon bonds. Premium bonds are actually a positive as they are less interest rate sensitive.

In general, just curious on 10 year maturities, but more specifically I'm currently looking at a couple positions.


Non-rated SF, CA special tax district, 4% coupon @ $94.73. Call 9/28. YTW 4.4 w/ 9/41 maturity.

AA & Insured SC, CA w/ 5% coupon @ $108.67. YTW/C 2.278% YTM 4.187. matures 9/2035

[m j b]

So, I'm playing with buying S&P Leveraged ETF when the market turns around... each time I buy, I wait (hopefully) for it to continue up, and then I put in a stop-loss order. By the time I enter the order, the ETF has dropped below my limit price (so the order is rejected) and I have to hurry and put in a market order.

So I'm in and out in a matter of 5 or 10 minutes. I'm making pennies here, but you add up enough pennies, and you get a quarter. Which of course doesn't make up for the thousands of dollars that I'm losing here every minute as my portfolio circles the drain, but it keeps me from working the streets, earning my money the hard way.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

no chance this will end well.

way too many headwinds. cutting losses and reducing overall holdings, imho, is the smart way to go. have a good cash reserve for opportunity in the future.

geopolitical, covid, inflation, work force challenges, focus on automation to reduce workforce, china shut downs, climate change, reduction of natural resources, and a ridiculous amount of political infighting and corruption in the US....among all sorts of other things.

soft landing is a pipe dream. history is NOT always the best indicator of the future. what is happening today is unprecedented on global scale.

predictions of oil being $160 to $200 a barrel? that becomes a global depression. not that I tend to believe predictions, but I am hard pressed to find reasons as to how this will not happen. $200, likely not, but certainly well north of $100.

the world has been living FAT for the last decade. the standard of living we have come to know is going to shift in the opposite direction. how can it not?

conserve capital, and prepare.

I am not saying sell it all. but to reduce risk and be prepared with cash to capitalize when the time is right seems the best way to combat inflation and position yourself properly for the future.

just my .$.02

Incredibly negative, disturbing, distressing and depressing post there Seth. I tend to agree with every point you make.

It's a lot harder to sell a stock, especially a loser, than it is to buy it. I've got one that is down 75% (a TRF recommendation) that I'm loath to sell because surely it's bound to go back up, eventually, right? Grrrr. This is hard.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by m j b

Incredibly negative, disturbing, distressing and depressing post there Seth. I tend to agree with every point you make.

It's a lot harder to sell a stock, especially a loser, than it is to buy it. I've got one that is down 75% (a TRF recommendation) that I'm loath to sell because surely it's bound to go back up, eventually, right? Grrrr. This is hard.

maybe it will go back up. I lost about two gold Daytonas worth on the Canadian marijuana stocks also recommended on TRF.

But it worked well for tax harvesting.

pros and cons to everything. If I kept them, it would have been 3 gold Daytonas worth.

sorry for the gloom. I think I am just being pragmatic.

truth is I have been prepping for this for years. However, over the last 6 months I got lazy and I find myself in a position not as strong as I could be or rather should be.

I just took big losses. but I am in wealth conservation mode at this point. and I think that most everyone else should be too.

[offrdmania]

On a side note, my crypto portfolio has been going to the moon this week

[SDGT3]

This isn't a bad time to do Roth conversions if you have cash on the sidelines to pay the taxes.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

On a side note, my crypto portfolio has been going to the moon this week

joking or what in crypto is actually going up? even nfts are down

btc looks horrific after today as well sadly

[uscmatt99]

There's a great thread authored on the Bogleheads forum that I like to reference on days like this. I'm not sure if it's okay to link to this forum, but you can search "A time to evaluate your jitters". It was originally posted in 2011 and rings true today. In summary, if you're invested long term and can afford to, HODL.

[hkuo]

Yay for BBIG!

“Each Vinco stockholder of record as of the close of business on May 18, 2022 will receive, on the distribution date, one share of Cryptyde common stock for every 10 shares of Vinco common stock held. The share dividend is expected to be distributed to Vinco stockholders on or about May 27, 2022. Following the separation, Vinco stockholders will also receive cash in lieu of any fractional shares of Cryptyde common stock that those holders would have received after application of the 10:1 distribution ratio. No action is required by Vinco stockholders in order to receive the shares of Cryptyde common stock in the dividend distribution.”

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Yay for BBIG!

“Each Vinco stockholder of record as of the close of business on May 18, 2022 will receive, on the distribution date, one share of Cryptyde common stock for every 10 shares of Vinco common stock held. The share dividend is expected to be distributed to Vinco stockholders on or about May 27, 2022. Following the separation, Vinco stockholders will also receive cash in lieu of any fractional shares of Cryptyde common stock that those holders would have received after application of the 10:1 distribution ratio. No action is required by Vinco stockholders in order to receive the shares of Cryptyde common stock in the dividend distribution.”

Is anyone adding BBIG right now?

I’m a little concerned this is yet another ploy by BBIG to manipulate prices.

I did up my small position x 10 though just to see where it goes.


Edit~ watching now I probably should have stayed in for about 20 mins and got out again up 28%.
Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[offrdmania]

Originally Posted by huncho

joking or what in crypto is actually going up? even nfts are down

btc looks horrific after today as well sadly

The Pulsechain network and PulseX are supposed to launch in the next week or two so many who own pre-tokens are purchasing ERC20 tokens to be copied onto the Pulschain network in the Airdrop.
It’s exciting times and there will be many new millionaires this month because of it.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by m j b

So, I'm playing with buying S&P Leveraged ETF when the market turns around... each time I buy, I wait (hopefully) for it to continue up, and then I put in a stop-loss order. By the time I enter the order, the ETF has dropped below my limit price (so the order is rejected) and I have to hurry and put in a market order.

So I'm in and out in a matter of 5 or 10 minutes. I'm making pennies here, but you add up enough pennies, and you get a quarter. Which of course doesn't make up for the thousands of dollars that I'm losing here every minute as my portfolio circles the drain, but it keeps me from working the streets, earning my money the hard way.

Suggest you look at VIX as an indicator for your entry and exits.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

The Pulsechain network and PulseX are supposed to launch in the next week or two so many who own pre-tokens are purchasing ERC20 tokens to be copied onto the Pulschain network in the Airdrop.
It’s exciting times and there will be many new millionaires this month because of it.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Lmao. Me neither.

[Laszlo]

These swings and patterns are reminiscent of what we saw prior the to Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. I’d stay clear personally.

Seth is speaking the voice of reason. Take note because I think he’s spot on.

[vipereaper30]

It's like that slow drumbeat waiting for the battle to start. In the wise words of Mr. Lahey, "we'd better haul in the jib before it gets covered in [stuff]!"

[m j b]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Suggest you look at VIX as an indicator for your entry and exits.

Eh, VIX is telling me to run!

I used to trade the VIX, sorta, but you can't trade it directly, only derivatives, and it's a lagging indicator anyway.

But thanks.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

These swings and patterns are reminiscent of what we saw prior the to Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. I’d stay clear personally.

Seth is speaking the voice of reason. Take note because I think he’s spot on.

you mean the nasdaq swinging 100 points every 3 minutes isn't normal?

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by m j b

Eh, VIX is telling me to run!

I used to trade the VIX, sorta, but you can't trade it directly, only derivatives, and it's a lagging indicator anyway.

But thanks.

I trade SVIX, SVIXY or UVIX, UVXY depending on where VIX is. Liquid and not much of a lag. Rotate the same cash from short to long pocketing the difference.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by huncho

you mean the nasdaq swinging 100 points every 3 minutes isn't normal?

[offrdmania]

Originally Posted by GB-man

In stock terminology, it’s like being in on an IPO for multiple start up companies at the same time. So we are on the ground floor with shares in hand waiting for the market to determine a price. There is major hype around both of these so the speculation is that they will start out very hot.