Talking Stocks 2.0

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by offrdmania

In stock terminology, it’s like being in on an IPO for multiple start up companies at the same time. So we are on the ground floor with shares in hand waiting for the market to determine a price. There is major hype around both of these so the speculation is that they will start out very hot.

Thank you for the explanation. I hope you kill.

[offrdmania]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Thank you for the explanation. I hope you kill.

Fingers crossed.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by strettyend

Getting close to tapping out here. Risks seem asymmetrically to the downside and don’t have any faith in a soft landing

Blood in the streets.

[AshCashEmAll]

I get that the market is scary but I just purchased some LABU. Just do not see why biotech is trading under its 5 year low. Seems oversold to me.


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[jaisonline]

I made $195.41 profit in SARK yesterday and then called it a day. Rather be on the sidelines for now. It paid for a nice portion of today’s dinner w/ the in-laws & kids. Win win in my book while all my long positions were beat w/ a baseball bat.

[mvmbles]

I've been selling weekly covered calls and cash secured puts on SOXL, but trying to keep that position relatively small due to the additional risk 3x leveraged products carry, and current general market conditions. Will be patiently waiting to scale in once semiconductors and Nasdaq recover.

Not a stock, but does anyone hold PRGTX in their 401k? I never imaged taking such a haircut from a mutual fund. Down 62% in 6 months. Ouch!

[scarlet knight]

I looked at PRGTX’s portfolio. AllStar team of tech stocks that got hit hard. It’s a tech sector fund, not a diversified portfolio. So you are going to get creamed in a bear. Look at Price New Era, although you could get whipsawed if tech recovers and energy plummets.

[GoBig]

Originally Posted by chsu74

I trade SVIX, SVIXY or UVIX, UVXY depending on where VIX is. Liquid and not much of a lag. Rotate the same cash from short to long pocketing the difference.

I trade VXX…been profitable lately.

[GoBig]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

The interest rate will be going up to over 9% in May. Pretty good small hedge while stocks and bonds are plummeting.


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Bought $10k last week. Too bad there’s a cap.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by GoBig

Bought $10k last week. Too bad there’s a cap.

You can buy $10k per family member, if you have them. Double check this, but I believe that you can also buy 10 for a family trust.

[scarlet knight]

Municipal bonds are now yielding well over 4% and rising. Beats negative 20%.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Municipal bonds are now yielding well over 4% and rising. Beats negative 20%.

Something I’ll be taking advantage of. For sure.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

I get that the market is scary but I just purchased some LABU. Just do not see why biotech is trading under its 5 year low. Seems oversold to me.


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Leveraged funds like that will decline based solely on the decay of the time factor in the derivatives that it uses. They are not for long term holdings, as a general rule.

I learned that the hard way.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

I get that the market is scary but I just purchased some LABU. Just do not see why biotech is trading under its 5 year low. Seems oversold to me.


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LABU invests in derivatives (such as futures, options, swaps) of companies operating primarily in the biotechnology and life sciences sectors.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/449...f-best-avoided

What did you think you were investing in?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by AshCashEmAll

I get that the market is scary but I just purchased some LABU. Just do not see why biotech is trading under its 5 year low. Seems oversold to me.


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Wild times in biotech xbi/labu. Worthwhile read, Big Pharma Has Enough Cash to Buy All of Biotech. Why M&A Isn’t Happening: https://www.barrons.com/articles/big...sh-51651844327

Originally Posted by SDGT3

In general, just curious on 10 year maturities, but more specifically I'm currently looking at a couple positions.


Non-rated SF, CA special tax district, 4% coupon @ $94.73. Call 9/28. YTW 4.4 w/ 9/41 maturity.

AA & Insured SC, CA w/ 5% coupon @ $108.67. YTW/C 2.278% YTM 4.187. matures 9/2035

What are the CUSIPs? Typically you pay a premium for muni bonds that have insurance which will cut into your book yield. Muni default rates are 16bp, tax receipts at all time highs (CA 30% YoY) and municipalities that are the healthiest in 30 years. There is really no need for insurance, even if a bond does default or a technical default recovery rate is incredibly high, regardless how rare. The last real major city to default in CA for example, was back in 1994 when OC defaulted, two years later, muni bond holders were paid back 100c on the dollar.

For NR paper you have to look at the issuance size, smaller issuances don't often mark to market and or should you need to sell in an illiquid market, you will pay a massive bid/ask spread to get out, if you can even find a bid. If you hold to call, or more likely maturity now, liquidity isn't an issue.

[scarlet knight]

Do not buy Puerto Rican municipal bonds unless you are into crypto, SARK, ARKK and the like. Many are in default and are highly speculative.

[superdog]

btc down 48% in six months. yeah, I am okay with my decision not to enter that market.

yes, I wish I joined while low low, but I did not.

I think just like all other markets, that one is fcked. more so likely. a mostly different kind of investor.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by superdog

btc down 48% in six months. yeah, I am okay with my decision not to enter that market.

yes, I wish I joined while low low, but I did not.

I think just like all other markets, that one is fcked. more so likely. a mostly different kind of investor.

When you look at the hold periods for crypto it all appears to be a fools game at this point. I love gambling in the marketplace and have made money doing it. But I wouldn't call it "investing" per se as I think the longterm outlook on many of these coins is pretty bleak. Especially once people develope the computers and skills to start hacking blockchains and doing heists virtually with no recourse. If you hack a blockchain from a country without extradition and don't get caught then take your ill gotten gains elsewhere... who's going to charge you lol

government backed centralized currency does have its perks at times.

[beshannon]

What are the CUSIPs?

What Is a CUSIP Number?

A CUSIP number is a unique identifier that stands for the Committee on Uniform Securities Identification Procedures. A CUSIP number is used to identify U.S. and Canadian registered stocks, U.S. government and municipal bonds, exchange traded funds, and mutual funds.1

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/ans...-cusip-number/

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

btc down 48% in six months. yeah, I am okay with my decision not to enter that market.

yes, I wish I joined while low low, but I did not.

I think just like all other markets, that one is fcked. more so likely. a mostly different kind of investor.

btc is still up 5-6x since pre covid so not too bad all things considering since most stocks are wiping out all gains from that same time frame. the timeline on btc is long so volatility if you're holding should be accepted. it will come back, it always does, it's just a matter of time. it's just suffering from the narrative that it should be treated like a tech stock/growth company right now even though it's nothing close to that. it's not a company, it has no revenue or employees or growth. i get ethereum being treated as such because it's essentially software but i think the market is currently categorizing btc incorrectly. halving happens in 2024 which usually leads to another cycle so we'll see. btc and eth aren't going anywhere but the rest of the sector is a crap shoot and basically gambling. nothing else really has any real world utility despite whatever people say (for now of course)

[gwozhog]

Originally Posted by huncho

btc is still up 5-6x since pre covid so not too bad all things considering since most stocks are wiping out all gains from that same time frame. the timeline on btc is long so volatility if you're holding should be accepted. it will come back, it always does, it's just a matter of time. it's just suffering from the narrative that it should be treated like a tech stock/growth company right now even though it's nothing close to that. it's not a company, it has no revenue or employees or growth. i get ethereum being treated as such because it's essentially software but i think the market is currently categorizing btc incorrectly. halving happens in 2024 which usually leads to another cycle so we'll see. btc and eth aren't going anywhere but the rest of the sector is a crap shoot and basically gambling. nothing else really has any real world utility despite whatever people say (for now of course)

If your in crypto to only make money then I agree with what you said. If your in Crypto because you want to see the world become a better place then Monero needs to be mentioned. Digital cash must be fungible to be a real currency.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by gwozhog

If your in crypto to only make money then I agree with what you said. If your in Crypto because you want to see the world become a better place then Monero needs to be mentioned. Digital cash must be fungible to be a real currency.

i don't think governments will allow for non government tokens to become currencies, especially not monero because it's untraceable. btc has the biggest chance of becoming one if lightning network gets implemented on a global scale because it's so mainstream already and impossible to hack due to PoW and how decentralized it is. otherwise, there are good ideas out there. i really think smart contracts and decentralized exchanges are revolutionary ideas and it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years

[superdog]

Originally Posted by huncho

btc is still up 5-6x since pre covid so not too bad all things considering since most stocks are wiping out all gains from that same time frame. the timeline on btc is long so volatility if you're holding should be accepted. it will come back, it always does, it's just a matter of time. it's just suffering from the narrative that it should be treated like a tech stock/growth company right now even though it's nothing close to that. it's not a company, it has no revenue or employees or growth. i get ethereum being treated as such because it's essentially software but i think the market is currently categorizing btc incorrectly. halving happens in 2024 which usually leads to another cycle so we'll see. btc and eth aren't going anywhere but the rest of the sector is a crap shoot and basically gambling. nothing else really has any real world utility despite whatever people say (for now of course)

Well, in the grand scheme of things, it’s been around for about twenty minutes. So it’s hard to say it’s always gone back up.

And the levels it’s currently at were an all time high, not all that long ago. But it still happens to be down almost 50% from its actual all time high.

My personal concern is that it was a hype type product. If it gets universally adopted, I tend to agree with you. It’ll go back up. But some countries have banned it already. Others may or may not follow. If it goes below certain thresholds it’ll tank severely.

And we are currently in a time where everything is going down. I also believe that most investors, in crypto in general, are not long term investors. So if it does keep going, and people begin pulling the money out in earnest, it’s going to have a severe crash. If that does happen, I’m a buyer.

I do think you are right. I think it will eventually be more common place. And it will be universally adopted. But I genuinely believe that’s 10-15 years, and massive back breaking drop horizon.

[GoBig]

Originally Posted by huncho

i don't think governments will allow for non government tokens to become currencies, especially not monero because it's untraceable. btc has the biggest chance of becoming one if lightning network gets implemented on a global scale because it's so mainstream already and impossible to hack due to PoW and how decentralized it is. otherwise, there are good ideas out there. i really think smart contracts and decentralized exchanges are revolutionary ideas and it will be interesting to see where they go in the coming years

Exactly!

[m j b]

Originally Posted by huncho

btc ... it will come back, it always does, it's just a matter of time.

I respectfully disagree. I'm not saying that it won't recover, I'm suggesting that just because it always has in the past doesn't mean that it will in the future.

Unlike currencies backed by a government or stocks that represent equity in a company with real products or services, there is nothing supporting BTC or other cryptos other than hopes and dreams.

Nothing wrong with speculating in it, if you have money to spare. I've done it. It's more like a lottery ticket than an actual investment that supports the economy. You know, IMHO and all that. :)

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

Well, in the grand scheme of things, it’s been around for about twenty minutes. So it’s hard to say it’s always gone back up.

And the levels it’s currently at were an all time high, not all that long ago. But it still happens to be down almost 50% from its actual all time high.

My personal concern is that it was a hype type product. If it gets universally adopted, I tend to agree with you. It’ll go back up. But some countries have banned it already. Others may or may not follow. If it goes below certain thresholds it’ll tank severely.

And we are currently in a time where everything is going down. I also believe that most investors, in crypto in general, are not long term investors. So if it does keep going, and people begin pulling the money out in earnest, it’s going to have a severe crash. If that does happen, I’m a buyer.

I do think you are right. I think it will eventually be more common place. And it will be universally adopted. But I genuinely believe that’s 10-15 years, and massive back breaking drop horizon.

yeah i definitely think its a 5-10 year kind of play. you're right about crypto not being really long term investing, for the most part. a lot of people gamble short term on the smaller coins for bigger returns but eventually put that money back into btc/eth to hold long term. they're really the only 2 worth holding for more than a few years. everything else has the risk of going to 0 within a few months

here are some of the biggest drops for it. i personally thought it would never come out alive from the march 2020 crash lol. may 2021 it went down over 50% in 1.5 weeks and only took 4 months to get back to all time highs. this time is obviously different as can be seen with us having yet another fire sale today, but there will eventually be a lot of money flowing back in

Originally Posted by m j b

I respectfully disagree. I'm not saying that it won't recover, I'm suggesting that just because it always has in the past doesn't mean that it will in the future.

Unlike currencies backed by a government or stocks that represent equity in a company with real products or services, there is nothing supporting BTC or other cryptos other than hopes and dreams.

Nothing wrong with speculating in it, if you have money to spare. I've done it. It's more like a lottery ticket than an actual investment that supports the economy. You know, IMHO and all that. :)

i disagree. btc is just like any other real product or service. it's supported by the idea and proof that you can have a decentralized banking system that works flawlessly (aside from taking a bit of time to send funds sometimes). it's never been hacked or had double spend transactions, never needed human intervention to fix/cancel transactions (the most important part) and the only way you can lose your money on it is if you send it to the wrong address. i get that it's not backed by a physical company or revenue, but there is something to it behind just the price. the price is all speculation and probably gambling, but that doesn't change the fact that it still does something and was the first to do it and make it work without any issues. eth on the other side is basically a tech stock. you have a guy who wrote it and supports it and without him it all comes falling down lol

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by superdog

Well, in the grand scheme of things, it’s been around for about twenty minutes. So it’s hard to say it’s always gone back up.

And the levels it’s currently at were an all time high, not all that long ago. But it still happens to be down almost 50% from its actual all time high.

My personal concern is that it was a hype type product. If it gets universally adopted, I tend to agree with you. It’ll go back up. But some countries have banned it already. Others may or may not follow. If it goes below certain thresholds it’ll tank severely.

And we are currently in a time where everything is going down. I also believe that most investors, in crypto in general, are not long term investors. So if it does keep going, and people begin pulling the money out in earnest, it’s going to have a severe crash. If that does happen, I’m a buyer.

I do think you are right. I think it will eventually be more common place. And it will be universally adopted. But I genuinely believe that’s 10-15 years, and massive back breaking drop horizon.

I think the truth of matter with BTC and ETH is …… nobody knows. Fans of it say it will change the world, naysayers call it a scam. Nobody knows where the truth lies between those two poles.
In 2016, having attending a seminar on blockchain tech for work purposes, I took the conscious decision to put 3% of my net worth into BTC and ETH. To me that is a sensible hedge against both the upside and the downside coming true. It’s done pretty well for me over that 7 year period although I’m a long term holder so have never cashed any in.
I’m neither a fanatical believer nor a hater. Just seems sensible to have a stake in the game.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Uggi

I think the truth of matter with BTC and ETH is …… nobody knows. Fans of it say it will change the world, naysayers call it a scam. Nobody knows where the truth lies between those two poles.
In 2016, having attending a seminar on blockchain tech for work purposes, I took the conscious decision to put 3% of my net worth into BTC and ETH. To me that is a sensible hedge against both the upside and the downside coming true. It’s done pretty well for me over that 7 year period although I’m a long term holder so have never cashed any in.
I’m neither a fanatical believer nor a hater. Just seems sensible to have a stake in the game.

yeah well said. i personally think it's just hard for a lot of people to get past the fact that it's not "backed" by anything so therefore it shouldn't have any value, which is understandable. i see both sides and never hate on someone if they say it's a scam. i would never recommend anyone to invest in it anyway for the obvious reason that they'll block your phone number once it inevitably goes down 10%+ lol. i do believe both are a game changer though (not fanatically)

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah well said. i personally think it's just hard for a lot of people to get past the fact that it's not "backed" by anything so therefore it shouldn't have any value, which is understandable. i see both sides and never hate on someone if they say it's a scam. i would never recommend anyone to invest in it anyway for the obvious reason that they'll block your phone number once it inevitably goes down 10%+ lol. i do believe both are a game changer though (not fanatically)

I don’t get the “backed by nothing” argument either. Most currencies aren’t backed by anything any more (ok you could argue they are ultimately backed by a military force but ….. that would be a bit far-fetched) as paper money is just printed hand over fist by governments all over the world with no asset backing at all. The whole financial system is built on a ledger of numbers and not much more.
Each to their own but I think there is at least a 20% chance that BTC in particular will be here to stay and that because of it, we could in the very early days of a very significant financial revolution.

[superdog]

I’m not fearful of it’s lack of backing. I think that’s one of the big selling points.

I’m more fearful in that if I lose my password, my money goes bye bye. Or if a hacker gets at it. Or it can simply be wiped out like just happen during that thing with the virtual real estate.

The idea of owning virtual “property” such as art or real estate is foreign to me, and I believe signified the beginning of the end. It signified that there simply was too much money out there and folks were literally inventing things to spend money on.

That’s why we are here now. At the beginning of a great big bear. Too much money gone rampant in all markets. Real estate, financial, crypto, luxury, etc.