Talking Stocks 2.0

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m not fearful of it’s lack of backing. I think that’s one of the big selling points.

I’m more fearful in that if I lose my password, my money goes bye bye. Or if a hacker gets at it. Or it can simply be wiped out like just happen during that thing with the virtual real estate.

The idea of owning virtual “property” such as art or real estate is foreign to me, and I believe signified the beginning of the end. It signified that there simply was too much money out there and folks were literally inventing things to spend money on.

That’s why we are here now. At the beginning of a great big bear. Too much money gone rampant in all markets. Real estate, financial, crypto, luxury, etc.

Strongly agree with this. Include Rolex watches and sports cars in there too. Too much printed money, backed by nothing, so folk have had to invent “value” where it doesn’t exist to justify a use for all that money.
Crazy times.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by superdog

I’m not fearful of it’s lack of backing. I think that’s one of the big selling points.

I’m more fearful in that if I lose my password, my money goes bye bye. Or if a hacker gets at it. Or it can simply be wiped out like just happen during that thing with the virtual real estate.

The idea of owning virtual “property” such as art or real estate is foreign to me, and I believe signified the beginning of the end. It signified that there simply was too much money out there and folks were literally inventing things to spend money on.

That’s why we are here now. At the beginning of a great big bear. Too much money gone rampant in all markets. Real estate, financial, crypto, luxury, etc.

What goes up must go down. No one sees it coming, they plan on permanently rising prices. Bitcoin, momo stocks, real estate going down. When no one thinks they can possibly go up, they do.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Uggi

Strongly agree with this. Include Rolex watches and sports cars in there too. Too much printed money, backed by nothing, so folk have had to invent “value” where it doesn’t exist to justify a use for all that money.
Crazy times.

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

What goes up must go down. No one sees it coming, they plan on permanently rising prices. Bitcoin, momo stocks, real estate going down. When no one thinks they can possibly go up, they do.

Agreed on all.

And that’s why I put luxury goods. Watches and sports cars are some of most egregious examples of the challenges we are now facing.

People don’t think they will tank. I do. I think they will both tank hard. Along with everything else.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

Agreed on all.

And that’s why I put luxury goods. Watches and sports cars are some of most egregious examples of the challenges we are now facing.

People don’t think they will tank. I do. I think they will both tank hard. Along with everything else.

it's interesting how literally everything is crashing at the same time, and crashing hard. imagine the safest thing right now is to hold cash during 8% inflation (and that number is tweaked for the better for sure). nothing is safe and to me that's the craziest part of it all

[superdog]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's interesting how literally everything is crashing at the same time, and crashing hard. imagine the safest thing right now is to hold cash during 8% inflation (and that number is tweaked for the better for sure). nothing is safe and to me that's the craziest part of it all

Sure is ugly today. But everything tanking still once is the cheapest indicator pointing to the fact that literally everything is overweight.

I’ve saved a small fortune by going to cash. But my fear is I didn’t liquidate enough. Debating pulling more out. But I don’t want to be out of equities completely.

I think we have another 15% to go. Easy.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

Sure is ugly today. But everything tanking still once is the cheapest indicator pointing to the fact that literally everything is overweight.

I’ve saved a small fortune by going to cash. But my fear is I didn’t liquidate enough. Debating pulling more out. But I don’t want to be out of equities completely.

I think we have another 15% to go. Easy.

yeah it's worrying to see how far there is to go still but just insane that we've now had 5 weeks of red and no signs of relief anywhere for more than a few hours

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah it's worrying to see how far there is to go still but just insane that we've now had 5 weeks of red and no signs of relief anywhere for more than a few hours

I’m sure people are getting hit with margin calls while others are cutting their losses. Lots of selling. I’m an idiot for not holding SARK over the weekend as my hedge. At least I still have over 20% in cash. Although I don’t see it being used anytime soon. When the tech biggies finally are getting hit hard (AMZN, APPL, etc…), you know the market is F’d for a while.

I’m thinking this will be like 2000 & 2008 but w/ inflation, COVID lockdowns, and Russia/ China mixed in. Brutal.

[scarlet knight]

Everyone laughs, but municipal bonds now yield 4-4.25%. Buy some now, buy some over the next few months as rates rise. If the Fed breaks inflation, the munis will look good.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah it's worrying to see how far there is to go still but just insane that we've now had 5 weeks of red and no signs of relief anywhere for more than a few hours

Kevin O'Leary says you are losing 8% in a bank account.

Instead should put it into a low cost fund.

Is he out of his mind? These funds have all lost circa 15%. So then you are losing the 8% of inflation and the circa 15% and then some depending on the next few months...

c'mon. thats just dumb.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Everyone laughs, but municipal bonds now yield 4-4.25%. Buy some now, buy some over the next few months as rates rise. If the Fed breaks inflation, the munis will look good.

This is my current plan.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I’m sure people are getting hit with margin calls while others are cutting their losses. Lots of selling. I’m an idiot for not holding SARK over the weekend as my hedge. At least I still have over 20% in cash. Although I don’t see it being used anytime soon. When the tech biggies finally are getting hit hard (AMZN, APPL, etc…), you know the market is F’d for a while.

I’m thinking this will be like 2000 & 2008 but w/ inflation, COVID lockdowns, and Russia/ China mixed in. Brutal.

my split is as follows:

38% equity
32% cash
21% fixed income
9% gold

I really think I should be selling more equities.

If I believe it is going down further, and I do, I don't understand why I would keep it. But I am hesitant because I do think I should stay active too.

I suppose I am thinking long term with what is in there now. And I do agree that timing the market is near impossible to do typically...

But I also think that these are different times. and that history is not the best indicator....And if you know its going down, why the name of all the financial gods should I keep it just to watch it go down?

Truly on the fence here.

[Alan111]

Originally Posted by superdog

This is my current plan.

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Everyone laughs, but municipal bonds now yield 4-4.25%. Buy some now, buy some over the next few months as rates rise. If the Fed breaks inflation, the munis will look good.

What's the easiest way to go about this? Is there an ETF?

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Alan111

What's the easiest way to go about this? Is there an ETF?

I dont think it is very difficult, but not sure the best way. My FA will buy it.

But we now meet weekly to discuss what is happening. and our last conversation revolved around the fact that as rates go up, so will fixed income opportunities.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by superdog

my split is as follows:

38% equity
32% cash
21% fixed income
9% gold

I really think I should be selling more equities.

If I believe it is going down further, and I do, I don't understand why I would keep it. But I am hesitant because I do think I should stay active too.

I suppose I am thinking long term with what is in there now. And I do agree that timing the market is near impossible to do typically...

But I also think that these are different times. and that history is not the best indicator....And if you know its going down, why the name of all the financial gods should I keep it just to watch it go down?

Truly on the fence here.

Superdog, just curious what yours and your FA’s thoughts are on buying puts if your view is that the market will continue to decline? I’ve never bought puts before so this is more me trying to learn.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Superdog, just curious what yours and your FA’s thoughts are on buying puts if your view is that the market will continue to decline? I’ve never bought puts before so this is more me trying to learn.

that is just too risky for me. I don't play with any of that. I don't have the stomach for it.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's interesting how literally everything is crashing at the same time, and crashing hard. imagine the safest thing right now is to hold cash during 8% inflation (and that number is tweaked for the better for sure). nothing is safe and to me that's the craziest part of it all

Holding cash perhaps means losing 8%+ with inflation but how good does that cash look now that equities are on sale for 17-50% off and still declining? I too think there's some ways to go on the downside. We still haven't seen the panic selling yet.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

that is just too risky for me. I don't play with any of that. I don't have the stomach for it.

I've bought puts in the past.

Consistently, without fail, I've lost money on it.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Holding cash perhaps means losing 8%+ with inflation but how good does that cash look now that equities are on sale for 17-50% off and still declining? I too think there's some ways to go on the downside. We still haven't seen the panic selling yet.

i think we're definitely in the panic selling and margin calls phase right now, but that was my point. how crazy is it that there's not a single thing safe from the chaos and inflation right now

the last few days are just scenes from the movie "margin call"

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by superdog

that is just too risky for me. I don't play with any of that. I don't have the stomach for it.

Got it and thank you!

[superdog]

BTC is down just about 10% today.

Apparently all of crypto is pretty far down.

Just too volatile for me right now. Massive amounts of wealth have literally been wiped away in the last few months. Yikes.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by Alan111

What's the easiest way to go about this? Is there an ETF?

If you buy a muni bond ETF or mutual fund, the price of the fund will go down as interest rates go up. You will lose money.

If you buy an actual bond, the interest is fixed and you get your principal back when the bond matures.

You can buy these bonds from brokers who specialize in munis. You need $5000-10,000 per bond.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

BTC is down just about 10% today.

Apparently all of crypto is pretty far down.

Just too volatile for me right now. Massive amounts of wealth have literally been wiped away in the last few months. Yikes.

crypto is tanking hard for multiple reasons. basically whales and funds are forced to liquidate btc and eth to keep a protocol running otherwise there will be a mass liquidation. i can go into more details but not sure if anyone cares lol. the stock market definitely doesn't help but that was the reason it was down over 10% over the weekend

here's a twitter thread explaining it in short (9 tweets, continues if you click on the 4/)

https://twitter.com/blockworks_/stat...347196928?s=21

your point still stands of course, every week something ridiculous happens in that space to cause volatility

[Laszlo]

It kinda feels like 1929, 2000, and 2008 all combined into one &@$t show.

[SDGT3]

I remember in 2000 when the Nasdaq was at 5000 and dropped to around 2500ish... maybe lower, don't remember exactly. Never sold to lock in those losses. Wasn't easy and it took years but held them for the ride back up and beyond.

Nearly every asset class has declined now with the exception of RE. Wonder how that's going to look in 6 months.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I remember in 2000 when the Nasdaq was at 5000 and dropped to around 2500ish... maybe lower, don't remember exactly. Never sold to lock in those losses. Wasn't easy and it took years but held them for the ride back up and beyond.

Nearly every asset class has declined now with the exception of RE. Wonder how that's going to look in 6 months.

Mortgage rates are zooming higher. Reflexively, housing prices have to go down.

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by m j b

I've bought puts in the past.

Consistently, without fail, I've lost money on it.

The algorithms push the money into max pain every time.


Anyway. It will be interesting to see which big player collapses first.

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

It kinda feels like 1929, 2000, and 2008 all combined into one &@$t show.

Yes. Burry thinks this one will eclipse those.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

It kinda feels like 1929, 2000, and 2008 all combined into one &@$t show.

Who could've seen any of it coming *sarcasm*

Its pretty bad out there right now.

We haven't seen anything yet though

[Uggi]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I remember in 2000 when the Nasdaq was at 5000 and dropped to around 2500ish... maybe lower, don't remember exactly. Never sold to lock in those losses. Wasn't easy and it took years but held them for the ride back up and beyond.

Nearly every asset class has declined now with the exception of RE. Wonder how that's going to look in 6 months.

This is a good point. I too held through 2000 and also through 2008 and ultimately it will swing back upwards if you have the time to ride it out. Obviously nicer if you can liquidate before it happens then buy back in at the bottom but I can’t liquidate my pension and don’t want to liquidate other positions either (I have liquidated some).
The big problem is for those who don’t have time and need their nest eggs in the next 5 years. That is going to hurt. If you have a 10+ years outlook there is still an argument to just hold through it, adding where possible.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

BTC is down just about 10% today.

Apparently all of crypto is pretty far down.

Just too volatile for me right now. Massive amounts of wealth have literally been wiped away in the last few months. Yikes.

I read in one of my newsletters this morning (Morning Brew, I believe) that 40% of BTC holders are currently under water.

There's really no way to know this, it can only be speculation (or based on reports from dealers like Coinbase) but since (my guess) 90% of crypto investors are too young to have lived through a bear market, it will be interesting to see how long they can HODL out. LOL.

I sold out of my Cardano position at a loss a couple of months ago, but saved myself a 45% haircut. So I guess that's something to be happy about.

Don't ask me about my biotech.

I also started buying SPY yesterday. Since we (well, me anyway) can't find the bottom until a month after it happens, it's time to start dipping the toes back in, just one toe at a time.