Talking Stocks 2.0

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

May not get it, but we need at least another 5 percent down. I think 10 percent to get to where we need to be.

Where are the bottom fishers?

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by avidflyer

May not get it, but we need at least another 5 percent down. I think 10 percent to get to where we need to be.

We're not there yet - S&P500 at 3500 may find support. When housing starts to go down then we're closer to the bottom.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

We're not there yet - S&P500 at 3500 may find support. When housing starts to go down then we're closer to the bottom.

Agreed.

We need real fear for things to shift. And people aren’t afraid just yet.

Folks think it’s all going to go back up. No fear, no capitulation.

[7sins]

There is plenty of fear in the market, easy to see this in put to call vol...I see and hear panic from large institutional investors all day long. There is tremendous stress and cracks under the hood, putting aside the already skiddish retail investor. I see clients panic selling high grade small odd lot muni bonds at 10+ point plus bid/ask spreads in sheer fear of market uncertainty, for an asset class that is the healthiest in over 30 years and no outstanding credit/solvency issues. I haven't seen this since 2010 and systemically back to 2008.

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by 7sins

There is plenty of fear in the market, easy to see this in put to call vol...I see and hear panic from large institutional investors all day long. There is tremendous stress and cracks under the hood, putting aside the already skiddish retail investor. I see clients panic selling high grade small odd lot muni bonds at 10+ point plus bid/ask spreads in sheer fear of market uncertainty, for an asset class that is the healthiest in over 30 years and no outstanding credit/solvency issues. I haven't seen this since 2010 and systemically back to 2008.

Seems like stocks have a bigger problem. We bought some munis at 4%. Safer haven, great interest rate compared to recent past.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Seems like stocks have a bigger problem. We bought some munis at 4%. Safer haven, great interest rate compared to recent past.

Remember to discern the difference between coupon vs CY vs book yield vs YTW. VERY few bonds at 4% coupon, with reasonable maturity are issued at par. Most are issued at a premium to par, esp 5% coupon bonds, this lowers your true book yield and you have to take into consideration the spread you were sold to buy the bond and the future spread to sell to TLH to then access lower priced bonds at higher yields. Unless you are buying lower quality paper @ 4% coupon, I'm sure you paid a premium to buy. The only paper I have traded near 4% at par has been long maturity BBB bonds. Which isn't always a bad thing, premium bonds are inherently less interest rate sensitive. I do believe it is a fallacy to hold to call (they won't call and you extend to maturity via extension risk) and you should look to sell long before maturity which can create several uphill battles in a passively managed strategy like a ladder or self directed. As absurdly boring as muni bonds are, they can be incredibly complex.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by 7sins

There is plenty of fear in the market, easy to see this in put to call vol...I see and hear panic from large institutional investors all day long. There is tremendous stress and cracks under the hood, putting aside the already skiddish retail investor. I see clients panic selling high grade small odd lot muni bonds at 10+ point plus bid/ask spreads in sheer fear of market uncertainty, for an asset class that is the healthiest in over 30 years and no outstanding credit/solvency issues. I haven't seen this since 2010 and systemically back to 2008.

Wow. That’s good to see, I suppose.

Maybe we are getting near a bottom.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

bout a bit of Coke, Chevron and Amex.

Apparently all are pretty inflation proof.

but given today, I am better off losing money based on inflation instead of inflation AND the markets losing value.

Hard to argue with that. I bought some COP yesterday as well, and I bought a little XOM Monday I think. And added to my Wells-Fargo position, which was doing just great until a few weeks ago. These are all for the IRA, long-term. Well, long-term if you don't consider my age, LOL.

Futures are down this morning. As others have suggested, I don't think we've seen the capitulation that we need.

I was thinking a bit about this earlier, and I suspect that a lot of the kids who've never lived through a correction/bear before, those crypto/Robinhood folks, many of them are likely stunned to discover that their investments do not always go up. Yes, that was a bad sentence, but mostly because I wasn't sure how to end it. When do those folks capitulate? Or better yet, start buying again? And maybe this time they'll move to quality over hype.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by m j b

Hard to argue with that. I bought some COP yesterday as well, and I bought a little XOM Monday I think. And added to my Wells-Fargo position, which was doing just great until a few weeks ago. These are all for the IRA, long-term. Well, long-term if you don't consider my age, LOL.

Futures are down this morning. As others have suggested, I don't think we've seen the capitulation that we need.

I was thinking a bit about this earlier, and I suspect that a lot of the kids who've never lived through a correction/bear before, those crypto/Robinhood folks, many of them are likely stunned to discover that their investments do not always go up. Yes, that was a bad sentence, but mostly because I wasn't sure how to end it. When do those folks capitulate? Or better yet, start buying again? And maybe this time they'll move to quality over hype.

futures slowly recovering after touching the same low as last week. trying to be a bit optimistic here and hope that was the bottom for a few weeks at least

i do feel like the selling yesterday and last week was just firms unloading massive amounts of their positions in an orderly fashion because it was just purely consistent selling with no bounces. just reminds me of the movie "Margin Call" (which sucked) lol

[m j b]

Originally Posted by huncho

just reminds me of the movie "Margin Call" (which sucked) lol

I thought it was a good movie from the perspective of having an excellent cast and good production values. It's probably unrealistic (like so many movies) but then, I never worked on Wall Street so maybe it was? I think from the perspective of the brokerage/bank screwing their customers it was realistic, I just don't think that those companies were aware of the precipitous nature of their business, or if they were, they didn't care.

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

futures slowly recovering after touching the same low as last week. trying to be a bit optimistic here and hope that was the bottom for a few weeks at least

i do feel like the selling yesterday and last week was just firms unloading massive amounts of their positions in an orderly fashion because it was just purely consistent selling with no bounces. just reminds me of the movie "Margin Call" (which sucked) lol

I have been raising cash and selling covered calls on keeper long positions. My cash is staying cash until we hit SPY near the 360 level. That may be a “near term bottom.”

The market has seen several funds blow up and systematically liquidate which is why the VIX has not spiked like the way Mar 2020 did. Think we will see more downward pressure as the next 50 basis point hike takes place and beginning offloading of fed balance sheet.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by m j b

I thought it was a good movie from the perspective of having an excellent cast and good production values. It's probably unrealistic (like so many movies) but then, I never worked on Wall Street so maybe it was? I think from the perspective of the brokerage/bank screwing their customers it was realistic, I just don't think that those companies were aware of the precipitous nature of their business, or if they were, they didn't care.

yeah, good cast but very lackluster production and not much going on throughout the movie. also didn't help that i watched it after kevin spacey got cancelled, and after i watched the big short which is just not even comparable because it's leagues better

Originally Posted by chsu74

I have been raising cash and selling covered calls on keeper long positions. My cash is staying cash until we hit SPY near the 360 level. That may be a “near term bottom.”

The market has seen several funds blow up and systematically liquidate which is why the VIX has not spiked like the way Mar 2020 did. Think we will see more downward pressure as the next 50 basis point hike takes place and beginning offloading of fed balance sheet.

kind of been trying to raise cash as well by doing some swing trading here and there. vix isn't as crazy as 2020 but the volatility is pretty insane right now. such huge swings that can happen in minutes but i guess it keeps you on the edge lol. i figure at least it will teach me how to take profits better and not be a bagholder in the future

[chsu74]

Originally Posted by huncho

kind of been trying to raise cash as well by doing some swing trading here and there. vix isn't as crazy as 2020 but the volatility is pretty insane right now. such huge swings that can happen in minutes but i guess it keeps you on the edge lol. i figure at least it will teach me how to take profits better and not be a bagholder in the future

Recognizing the market environment and adapting the most suitable trading style is a learning experience for us retail traders. I am bag holding too because I thought this QT would not be as severe as nothing broke economically aside from too much QE.

Margin call happens to everyone over levered regardless if you are a fund or an individual. That is one source of volatility you can’t really predict or feel from news sources.

There is going to be rerating of stock prices now that the likes of WMT and TGT are guiding 50% less profit back to pre pandemic levels. I do think we are closer to bottom but question of growth remains to be seen..

[huncho]

Originally Posted by chsu74

Recognizing the market environment and adapting the most suitable trading style is a learning experience for us retail traders. I am bag holding too because I thought this QT would not be as severe as nothing broke economically aside from too much QE.

Margin call happens to everyone over levered regardless if you are a fund or an individual. That is one source of volatility you can’t really predict or feel from news sources.

There is going to be rerating of stock prices now that the likes of WMT and TGT are guiding 50% less profit back to pre pandemic levels. I do think we are closer to bottom but question of growth remains to be seen..

yeah no clue where the bottom will be honestly. it definitely feels like there's more pain ahead but at this point this will be the 7th red week in a row which i believe only happened once in the last 20+ years (in 2008) and not even in 01. interesting thing is that the smaller cap tech stocks are starting to stage some comebacks (50%+ bounces, which to be fair is nothing when they were down 80%) while the large caps like apple/msft/tesla just started to correct. there are some smaller caps that came down to ridiculous valuations like coinbase but then again last week was just too scary to buy anything, especially tech. maybe the bottom was close or possibly in for small tech. i think coinbase had something like 3 p/e and a bit over 1 p/s at some point last week lol, essentially priced for bankruptcy while having 2-3b net income per year

[jaisonline]

Speaking of guessing a “bottom”, I’ve been looking at historic Forward P/E values during recessions. Is anyone doing the same or using another method? Current Forward P/R is between 16.5% to 18.5% depending on source & May date.

[m j b]

It's turning into another brutal day, down 2% right now.

[superdog]

https://youtu.be/BR2003lJmXQ

This is exactly what I thinking when I said, not enough fear yet. A buddy just sent this to me. I happen to agree. Except, I do think a recession is on the horizon.

But a big day is coming. It’s going to be painful, but it’s needed to get to the bottom.

[FLGatorM5]

I spy a nice reversal…

[huncho]

they really waited until the last 20 mins to screw over all the put holders lol

[flyboyyy]

Originally Posted by huncho

they really waited until the last 20 mins to screw over all the put holders lol

Yep - these wild ass 500+ point down/up or up/down swings over mere hours within a trading day are becoming crazy! I haven't dug into the volumes to see who/what is making those moves, but it must be some rather large orders (on either side) do to that without much news.

[hkuo]

Nothing is ever on time with BBIG…what a letdown.

“Fairport, NY, May 25, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vinco Ventures, Inc. (NASDAQ:BBIG), a digital media and content technologies holding company (“Vinco Ventures,” “Vinco,” or the “Company”), today announced that, due to contractual and regulatory conditions, the Company’s Board of Directors has decided to delay the distribution date for the previously announced spin-off of Cryptyde, Inc. (“Cryptyde”).

On May 5, 2022, the Company announced that each Vinco stockholder of record as of the close of business on May 18, 2022 would receive one share of Cryptyde common stock for every ten shares of Vinco common stock held and that such share dividend was expected to be distributed on or about May 27, 2022. The Company currently expects the distribution date for the Cryptyde spin-off to occur on or about the end of the second quarter of 2022, subject to certain contractual and regulatory conditions being met or waived.”

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

https://youtu.be/BR2003lJmXQ

This is exactly what I thinking when I said, not enough fear yet. A buddy just sent this to me. I happen to agree. Except, I do think a recession is on the horizon.

But a big day is coming. It’s going to be painful, but it’s needed to get to the bottom.

I like Kevin. I don't drink the Mr. Wonderful cool-aid and I don't think he's know-all end-all, but he is refreshing in his clarity of convictions. My favorite line from the clip: "I'd like to sacrifice somebody, not me of course... and then we'll find the bottom".

I'm no economist, but I'm not 100% sure that we'll go into a recession; the economy is quite strong and resilient despite the multitudes of things working against it, like the continued supply problems, inflation, scarcity of workers, housing market and of course, the war in Ukraine.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by hkuo

Nothing is ever on time with BBIG…what a letdown.

Looks like they are getting hammered pre-market, down 10%.

[hkuo]

Originally Posted by m j b

Looks like they are getting hammered pre-market, down 10%.

Yeah, extra painful since I recently bought a lot more Jan 2023 options and shares to lower my cost basis anticipating the TYDE dividend to happen early next week. I was going to fully exit once the stock ran up. At least GME is up so it's offsetting my losses in BBIG :/

[scarlet knight]

Bought a couple of utes, DLTR (recession choice), NOW (SAAS) that will work in a recession. Plus ALB for lithium mining for electric engines.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by superdog

https://youtu.be/BR2003lJmXQ

This is exactly what I thinking when I said, not enough fear yet. A buddy just sent this to me. I happen to agree. Except, I do think a recession is on the horizon.

But a big day is coming. It’s going to be painful, but it’s needed to get to the bottom.

I agree with this. Anecdotal it may be, I have seen nothing to show any concern from consumers regarding what's going on in the markets. They simply aren't swayed by the negative happens and won't be participating in it unless some BIG collapse occurs.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I agree with this. Anecdotal it may be, I have seen nothing to show any concern from consumers regarding what's going on in the markets. They simply aren't swayed by the negative happens and won't be participating in it unless some BIG collapse occurs.

Thanks see Kevin’s point. A big event would be quite the indicator. Granted, Kevin is talking moving indices violently down sharply. Kevin will unfortunately get his wish as we have 2 years of Fed printing money to combat plus their QE since the late 2000s.

Regarding recent retail / consumers, their spending more (increasing maybe due to inflation), savings (decreasing) and revolving debt (increasing) are getting worse.

[logo]

Crazy relief rally past 2 days. Pretty low volume though, happening before the long weekend and end of month. IMO nothing has really changed. Cautiously awaiting Tuesday….

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by logo

Crazy relief rally past 2 days. Pretty low volume though, happening before the long weekend and end of month. IMO nothing has really changed. Cautiously awaiting Tuesday….

Another shoe drops. I expect another leg down, everyone gives up hope, considers or actually bails out, then it’s rocket ship up.

But whatever one expects to happen is not what actually happens.

Good luck out there. Will Rogers said he was more concerned about the return OF his capital than the return ON his capital.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Crazy relief rally past 2 days. Pretty low volume though, happening before the long weekend and end of month. IMO nothing has really changed. Cautiously awaiting Tuesday….

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Another shoe drops. I expect another leg down, everyone gives up hope, considers or actually bails out, then it’s rocket ship up.

But whatever one expects to happen is not what actually happens.

Good luck out there. Will Rogers said he was more concerned about the return OF his capital than the return ON his capital.

feels like the one we got in march that kinda came out of nowhere. would be surprised if anyone was prepared for this one to last more than a day or 2 at most. i wanna believe that the bottom is in but with them starting to offload their balance sheet next month i really can't see how we don't see another leg down