Talking Stocks 2.0

[macrowatch]

Think too early for bottom until Fed starts to signal hike cycle done.

More unique point of view (since the above anyone can parrot from WSJ or Bloomberg news), has anyone see the stats on buy now pay later loans? Interesting article from New Yorker showing that in California, most, maybe 90% of new debt is BMPL. So doesn’t how you in traditional debt reporting.

[jaisonline]

I also read about the escalations of debt via Buy Now / Pay Later companies. Good point. In my post above, I assumed BNPL loans are included in the Outstanding Consumer Credit Data since it’s non-real estate.

“Part I. What Consumer Credit Data Are Available on the G.19 Statistical Release, "Consumer Credit," and How Are These Data Calculated?

The G.19 Statistical Release, "Consumer Credit," reports outstanding credit extended to individuals for household, family, and other personal expenditures, excluding loans secured by real estate. Total consumer credit comprises two major types: revolving and nonrevolving. Revolving credit plans may be unsecured or secured by collateral and allow a consumer to borrow up to a prearranged limit and repay the debt in one or more installments. Credit card loans comprise most of revolving consumer credit measured in the G.19, but other types, such as prearranged overdraft plans, are also included. Nonrevolving credit is closed-end credit extended to consumers that is repaid on a prearranged repayment schedule and may be secured or unsecured. To borrow additional funds, the consumer must enter into an additional contract with the lender. Consumer motor vehicle and education loans comprise the majority of nonrevolving credit, but other loan types, such as boat loans, recreational vehicle loans, and personal loans, are also included.”
Source = https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/about.htm

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Think too early for bottom until Fed starts to signal hike cycle done.

More unique point of view (since the above anyone can parrot from WSJ or Bloomberg news), has anyone see the stats on buy now pay later loans? Interesting article from New Yorker showing that in California, most, maybe 90% of new debt is BMPL. So doesn’t how you in traditional debt reporting.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

I also read about the escalations of debt via Buy Now / Pay Later companies. Good point. In my post above, I assumed BNPL loans are included in the Outstanding Consumer Credit Data since it’s non-real estate.

“Part I. What Consumer Credit Data Are Available on the G.19 Statistical Release, "Consumer Credit," and How Are These Data Calculated?

The G.19 Statistical Release, "Consumer Credit," reports outstanding credit extended to individuals for household, family, and other personal expenditures, excluding loans secured by real estate. Total consumer credit comprises two major types: revolving and nonrevolving. Revolving credit plans may be unsecured or secured by collateral and allow a consumer to borrow up to a prearranged limit and repay the debt in one or more installments. Credit card loans comprise most of revolving consumer credit measured in the G.19, but other types, such as prearranged overdraft plans, are also included. Nonrevolving credit is closed-end credit extended to consumers that is repaid on a prearranged repayment schedule and may be secured or unsecured. To borrow additional funds, the consumer must enter into an additional contract with the lender. Consumer motor vehicle and education loans comprise the majority of nonrevolving credit, but other loan types, such as boat loans, recreational vehicle loans, and personal loans, are also included.”
Source = https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/about.htm

I could be wrong, but I don't think it is, at least for now, because it simply isn't reported. As an anecdotal example, I went through the process myself to see how it would be like to buy a Peloton with BNPL.

Doesn't show up anywhere as debt, the other BNPL don't know I owe that amount either, so I'm not sure Federal Reserve would know either other than a gross sum up of the reported financials of the BNPL companies balance sheet quarter to quarter?

Again, could be wrong, but I think it's so new the Fed is still studying it and also doesn't have complete data...yet.

[jaisonline]

From Bloomberg terminal…
“CREDIT SUISSE IN EARLY STAGES OF WEIGHING OPTIONS TO BOLSTER CAPITAL - SOURCES

CAPITAL INCREASE ONE OPTION UNDER CONSIDERATION - SOURCES

CREDIT SUISSE ALSO CONSIDERING POSSIBLE DIVESTMENT SUCH AS SALE OF ASSET MANAGEMENT BUSINESS - SOURCE”

[28mm]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Where are the bottom fishers?

The smart ones are nibbling and/or adding to positions.

[Mcmak]

Originally Posted by austinp

I think I'm going to do a little buying tomorrow afternoon. Who's with me???

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Definitely not yet time for me.

[scarlet knight]

Afternoon buying is better than morning. On the first day of the week, it often starts higher, sinks in the last hour. We are overdue for better news regarding inflation, shootings, Ukraine. I am a short term skeptic, long term bull.

[beshannon]

Charles Schwab

Mid-Year Outlook: U.S. Stocks and Economy

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/m...ks-and-economy

[Laszlo]

My predictions still holds that the patterns will lead to large scale bankruptcies and giant government bailouts as seen in 2008. We’ll see wildness throughout the summer (downward swings will be much larger than up swings) until fall, when finally the erosion is so deep that it leads to giant handouts and the usual drama. We’re literally following almost identical patterns that led up to 2008 crash. Spring correction drama, intense summer swings, and then finally a fall crash. But this round will include a lot more sectors and much larger bailout sums. And everyone will move forward and we’ll see the same thing again in 2030.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

My predictions still holds that the patterns will lead to large scale bankruptcies and giant government bailouts as seen in 2008. We’ll see wildness throughout the summer (downward swings will be much larger than up swings) until fall, when finally the erosion is so deep that it leads to giant handouts and the usual drama. We’re literally following almost identical patterns that led up to 2008 crash. Spring correction drama, intense summer swings, and then finally a fall crash. But this round will include a lot more sectors and much larger bailout sums. And everyone will move forward and we’ll see the same thing again in 2030.

Agree completely. Agree exactly.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by superdog

Agree completely. Agree exactly.

[huncho]

so snapchat, an actual shit company that was never profitable, lowers guidance and causes a 4-5% slide in nasdaq/s&p 2 weeks ago

microsoft, one of the biggest companies in the world, does the same and we have a flat/green day. completely logical market lol

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by huncho

so snapchat, an actual shit company that was never profitable, lowers guidance and causes a 4-5% slide in nasdaq/s&p 2 weeks ago

microsoft, one of the biggest companies in the world, does the same and we have a flat/green day. completely logical market lol

I am looking to add to MSFT after some of the noise

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am looking to add to MSFT after some of the noise

One of my biggest holdings. I’ll add more soon.

Also adding AT&T, ibm, servicenow and Qualcomm.

Going to be very selective with what I buy. And going to wait for another big drop day. But I’m slowly going to go back in.

I do think there is much pain ahead. But I’m also realize I can’t time the market. Trying to balance it all out.

[logo]

Originally Posted by huncho

so snapchat, an actual shit company that was never profitable, lowers guidance and causes a 4-5% slide in nasdaq/s&p 2 weeks ago

microsoft, one of the biggest companies in the world, does the same and we have a flat/green day. completely logical market lol

Ah dude it was written all over the charts. Classic setup lol.



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[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Ah dude it was written all over the charts. Classic setup lol.



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lmao

we just have to accept the fact that snapchat is a better indicator of the global economy

[austinp]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I am looking to add to MSFT after some of the noise

What would signal your time to buy? I’m ready to put some cash to work. Looking to add more NVDA also? Any others you are looking at?


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[denmanproject]

SHOP looking like it may have bottomed

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by austinp

What would signal your time to buy? I’m ready to put some cash to work. Looking to add more NVDA also? Any others you are looking at?


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~240 is support on MSFT at least in the short term.

Energy and Consumer staples are the two areas I am watching

[Doc Savage]

It's not nearly time to buy most stocks. Plenty more left to bleed in most sectors, imo.

I'm still 100% commodities right now.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

It's not nearly time to buy most stocks. Plenty more left to bleed in most sectors, imo.

I disagree. That is what makes a free flowing market

[logo]

SPY chart past week or so looks like a mess with back and forth 2% swings. A day trading dream (for those who can do it), but so chaotic. I'm not expecting a breakout or breakdown from these levels until CPI news this Friday. Gas, other commodity, housing and retail prices remain elevated (heard that Gucci is raising prices this month lol). From the startup/VC world, I can tell you VCs are being extremely tight with money, even a big change from just 2 months ago, which was a huge change from 12 months ago. Even if inflation is starting to come down, which I don't know that it is yet, the continued rate increases will absolutely hurt people (and businesses) who were taking advantage of low rates more than they should have forcing a few fire sales. To me there is still a very high degree of uncertainty in the months ahead.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I disagree. That is what makes a free flowing market

Please elaborate.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

SPY chart past week or so looks like a mess with back and forth 2% swings. A day trading dream (for those who can do it), but so chaotic. I'm not expecting a breakout or breakdown from these levels until CPI news this Friday. Gas, other commodity, housing and retail prices remain elevated (heard that Gucci is raising prices this month lol). From the startup/VC world, I can tell you VCs are being extremely tight with money, even a big change from just 2 months ago, which was a huge change from 12 months ago. Even if inflation is starting to come down, which I don't know that it is yet, the continued rate increases will absolutely hurt people (and businesses) who were taking advantage of low rates more than they should have forcing a few fire sales. To me there is still a very high degree of uncertainty in the months ahead.

the swings are just wild. you would think with certain supports being tested and bought many times that we'd have a bit of an up trend but it is what it is. MMs just screwing over both sides and there's nothing anyone can do

[Doc Savage]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I disagree. That is what makes a free flowing market

I appreciate liquidity as much as the next guy. I just don't want to invest in a market that looks like it's still trending downward.

I used to daytrade, and I love volatility in either direction. But not anymore.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by Doc Savage

I appreciate liquidity as much as the next guy. I just don't want to invest in a market that looks like it's still trending downward.

I used to daytrade, and I love volatility in either direction. But not anymore.

Fair enough

I am looking for opportunities with a 36 - 48 month time horizon. I bought XOM in January 2021 at 42 when no one wanted to touch energy. I am very patient.

Many stock have been repriced, some have been unfairly beaten up. That is my focus.

[CoveWatch]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Fair enough

I am looking for opportunities with a 36 - 48 month time horizon. I bought XOM in January 2021 at 42 when no one wanted to touch energy. I am very patient.

Many stock have been repriced, some have been unfairly beaten up. That is my focus.

Agree there, dislocations and patience is where the best money has been made for me. I'm unfortunately impatient for the most part tho

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by superdog

Please elaborate.

In order to have an efficient market there need to be two sides to the trade. There is no new money created in the secondary markets.

When some do not want to buy, that is exactly when I am buying. I posted back in November that I was hedging against a downside move and in April/May I began buying again.

Much like a few here that think they understand the luxury jewelry markets, when people become fearful and are throwing in the towel, that is the time to look at what your goals are.

I will be happy to add to positions of companies that have been repriced too much and will always look for trades that can be placed in the short term. I am doing some of each here.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by CoveWatch

Agree there, dislocations and patience is where the best money has been made for me. I'm unfortunately impatient for the most part tho

That affects many people.

I have specific goals based on time horizons. If I look at a stock that I want to own and not trade, I base my trade on where I think the price will be during that goal period.

My current goal period is 36-48 months for the first part of my portfolios.

[logo]

Quite the power hour today. Guess we know which way Wall Street is hedging for CPI tomorrow.