Talking Stocks 2.0

[huncho]

Originally Posted by logo

Quite the power hour today. Guess we know which way Wall Street is hedging for CPI tomorrow.

dow -300 to -650 just from 3-4pm. you would think the cpi got leaked or something lol

[SDGT3]

Someone has to compile those numbers.

Many reports out today that everyday purchases such as utilities, food and gas are well into the double digit inflation range. Anecdotally speaking, gas/diesel has easily doubled in the past 6 months alone and there doesn't look to be any relief in sight. No bueno.

[scarlet knight]

Today and tomorrow will be the best days for the markets in quite some time.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Today and tomorrow will be the best days for the markets in quite some time.

Ha. That’s funny.

But true.

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Today and tomorrow will be the best days for the markets in quite some time.

That’s awesome.

[espanol]

Just a temp check; do you all seriously stock pick as your investment strategy, or is this just a small subset that you have some fun with?

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by espanol

Just a temp check; do you all seriously stock pick as your investment strategy, or is this just a small subset that you have some fun with?

Our retirement accounts are mostly mutual funds and ETFs. Usually, more diversified.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by espanol

Just a temp check; do you all seriously stock pick as your investment strategy, or is this just a small subset that you have some fun with?

For me it is both

[Laszlo]

Originally Posted by espanol

Just a temp check; do you all seriously stock pick as your investment strategy, or is this just a small subset that you have some fun with?

Having fun is your best bet. Unless you’re incredibly talented.

[superdog]

Hard to say with all the volatility, but futures today looks like a blood bath about to happen.

Given the last few days, I’m paying super close attention and will likely start slowly buying. Albeit, very slowly.

I still think we have a ways down to go.

I also think one big a$$ day is coming. Time will tell I suppose.

[scarlet knight]

There will be dead cat bounces. Especially if people expect a 75 basis point interest rate hike. Could even reverse Monday afternoon

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

There will be dead cat bounces. Especially if people expect a 75 basis point interest rate hike. Could even reverse Monday afternoon

This time I don’t think so.

I think folks are finally starting to come to the realization that we have major problems and they can’t be fixed by the fed this time.

I think we see some major pain. Prolonged pain.

[GB-man]

[gabrielnovar]

You get rich in bull markets, you create wealth in bears.

Slowly Buy gents. We have the gift of a lifetime.

[Laszlo]

The FED must get control of inflation ASAP, it will be extremely painful. But it is imperative and they’re not moving fast enough. There’s no dancing around this. Rip that bandaid off already! For those with the appetite, there is opportunity, just be smart what you buy and go long. Way long.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

... and will likely start slowly buying. Albeit, very slowly.

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

Slowly Buy gents. We have the gift of a lifetime.

I concur with both, and am adding to my positions.

However it's worth noting that we are still at historically high multiples.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by m j b

However it's worth noting that we are still at historically high multiples.

This is what many aren't tracking imo as value became detached from many asset classes and people forgot that things don't always go up. Rhetorical question for everyone nibbling, where is the current value (and when) in what you're adding to?

Jib's still in here.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Tl8sayb5D7w

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

There will be dead cat bounces. Especially if people expect a 75 basis point interest rate hike. Could even reverse Monday afternoon

It wouldn't be a deviation away from what has been happening in this channel over the last month.

I'm looking to Tuesday 6/21 for the rug pull.

We also haven't seen Tether collapse yet, which I'm thinking is closer than ever.

That should knock BTC down quite a bit and there goes cash collateral for the institutions to post for margin.

Buckle up.

[EndlessEight]

Originally Posted by m j b

I concur with both, and am adding to my positions.

However it's worth noting that we are still at historically high multiples.

I plan to buy when the DOW hits 19k again. Not sure when that will be, but I believe it's heading that way.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

I concur with both, and am adding to my positions.

However it's worth noting that we are still at historically high multiples.

I disagree, we may be slightly higher than normal but no where near historically high. In addition this is the S&P500, there are many stocks that have been unfairly beaten up and are below average

Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 19.07 -0.65 (-3.28%)
11:19 AM EDT, Mon Jun 13
Mean: 15.97
Median: 14.89
Min: 5.31 (Dec 1917)
Max: 123.73 (May 2009)

[m j b]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I disagree, we may be slightly higher than normal but no where near historically high.


Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 19.07 -0.65 (-3.28%)

Mean: 15.97
Median: 14.89

Sorry, my bad. I shouldn't have written "historically" and instead "still above average". Or above mean. Or Median. Your choice.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Sorry, my bad. I shouldn't have written "historically" and instead "still above average". Or above mean. Or Median. Your choice.

No problem, yes we are a bit high.

I prefer to look at the future opportunities, there are still issues with China, War, Semiconducters . . .

I believe earnings can remain strong and that the worlds economies are in good shape. The repricing we have seen will likely go too far as all moves like this do both to the upside and the downside.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I disagree, we may be slightly higher than normal but no where near historically high. In addition this is the S&P500, there are many stocks that have been unfairly beaten up and are below average



Current S&P 500 PE Ratio: 19.07 -0.65 (-3.28%)

11:19 AM EDT, Mon Jun 13

Mean:15.97

Median:14.89

Min:5.31(Dec 1917)

Max:123.73(May 2009)

What? This doesn't show us at historically high valuations?

Which way are earnings headed? With an over correction the S&P could take a 50% haircut on this metric alone. Not saying that's going to happen only that we remain overvalued.

[vipereaper30]

And how does this valuation metric compare historically?

[flyboyyy]

Originally Posted by EndlessEight

We also haven't seen Tether collapse yet, which I'm thinking is closer than ever.

That should knock BTC down quite a bit and there goes cash collateral for the institutions to post for margin.
Buckle up.

Yep - you can tell, because the whole Celsius thing over the past 24hrs definitely has some crypto folks spooked (both behind and in front of the scenes). The entire UST/Luna debacle seems to still be shaking out and the contagion was/is obviously not limited to them.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by flyboyyy

Yep - you can tell, because the whole Celsius thing over the past 24hrs definitely has some crypto folks spooked (both behind and in front of the scenes). The entire UST/Luna debacle seems to still be shaking out and the contagion was/is obviously not limited to them.

celsius was also irresponsible and invested people's money into luna lol. they were basically an overleveraged hedge fund taking your bitcoin/eth funds and investing them into shitcoins to give you good returns, it was only a matter of time before something went wrong there and i'm actually not surprised they're getting liquidated. a lot of people had their suspicions on them for a while, gotta cleanse the scene for it to go back up again

absolutely brutal month though. think it's time to step away for a bit and let the dust settle, not worth the mental health to pay attention to this every day at this point

[espanol]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

And how does this valuation metric compare historically?

CAPE is helpful but shouldn’t be included in a vacuum. If anything, CAPE should marginally adjust upward overtime as the general makeup of the economy changes, and new innovative sectors emerge. Behavior finance is more of a force than many realize. Plus, looking at data from the 19th century isn’t extremely relevant to today’s modern financial system.

I subscribe to Buffett and Graham, and think these quotes from the Oracle put things in perspective: “Everything in valuation gets back to interest rates;” “The most important thing is future interest rates;” and “If I could only pick one statistic to ask you about the future before I gave the answer, I would not ask you about GDP growth, I would not ask you about who was going to be president… a million things I wouldn’t [ask]… I would ask you what the interest rate is going to be over the next 20 years on average.”

Why are interest rates important? It’s how we assign margin to discount future cash flows. When rates are low, valuations theoretically have no ceiling. But as rates rise, so does the risk free rate, and valuations suffer.

I’d be much more focused on the future of interest rates than anything else. It dictates everything in our economy. If you believe rates will go up, then it’s likely future valuations will decline.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

This time I don’t think so.

I think folks are finally starting to come to the realization that we have major problems and they can’t be fixed by the fed this time.

I think we see some major pain. Prolonged pain.

yeah i feel like things will eventually bottom (and maybe we're close) but it will be a prolonged bottom unlike 2020. there will be opportunities to get in i'm sure, but there's just no money for a quick recovery right now. the market struggles to hold onto green for hours these days

[Baco Noir]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah i feel like things will eventually bottom (and maybe we're close) but it will be a prolonged bottom unlike 2020. there will be opportunities to get in i'm sure, but there's just no money for a quick recovery right now. the market struggles to hold onto green for hours these days

Agreed. There are still the lingering supply chain issues from COVID, Ukraine, China and NK making noise, inflation, and while the unemployment rates are low, I see a ton of job postings for professional staff going unfilled and the service industry is having trouble still too. This doesn't seem like a situation that will turn around in 6-12 months. I just retired in March and my wife is next month. I'm nervous, but we have 18 months of expenses in cash and some home based craft business plans that will bring in a little bit of cash, but not make a big impact.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by espanol

CAPE is helpful but shouldn’t be included in a vacuum.

Spot on, thank you for the enlightening response!