Talking Stocks 2.0

[textilexst]

Tesla's stock should rise if consumers like Ilon Musk's new smartphone.

[Cheesepizzalover]

ITT: people who have no business talking about the economy yet they're talking as if they have all the solutions 😂

[superdog]

Originally Posted by Cheesepizzalover

ITT: people who have no business talking about the economy yet they're talking as if they have all the solutions 😂

“Please who have no business talking about the economy”.

I’m sure you will enjoying your stay here. The ignorant and willfully combative don’t tend to stick around long.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Having fun is your best bet. Unless you’re incredibly talented.

Agreed. Statistics favor taking on macro and style risk for the bulk of one’s investible net worth, and leaving idiosyncratic to the likes of ARK…

[gabrielnovar]

Now is the time IMO to slowly scale into Biotechs.

I am getting this 90% off pre covid levels. If they don't work out, our economy is screwed. If they do. 20-100x upside in many.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by gabrielnovar

Now is the time IMO to slowly scale into Biotechs.

I'm starting to get interested myself but staying patient assessing for an extended overcorrection. Where/what are you looking at in biotech?

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

I'm starting to get interested myself but staying patient assessing for an extended overcorrection. Where/what are you looking at in biotech?

XBI, IBB. Very different holdings, research them first. Not recommending, just putting it out there.

[vipereaper30]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

XBI, IBB. Very different holdings, research them first. Not recommending, just putting it out there.

Cool thx, XBI for me between these two. So much opportunity in this space but a lot of excess still to work through.

[logo]

Bunch of crooks pumping the market yesterday after the fed meeting lol

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by logo

Bunch of crooks pumping the market yesterday after the fed meeting lol

People deciding to add to positions are crooks?

Ok guess I am a crook then. This place is really lost.

[huncho]

obviously large cap still has a ways to go (if we keep going down), but anyone here looking at any small cap tech/growth stocks? a lot are down 90% and seems like are either near or at their bottoms

Originally Posted by logo

Bunch of crooks pumping the market yesterday after the fed meeting lol

seems as easy as buy calls on fomc morning, but puts at close lol

[7sins]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

Cool thx, XBI for me between these two. So much opportunity in this space but a lot of excess still to work through.

Last I checked on Bloomberg, ~130+ small cap biotech trade at less than cash value. You are better off creating your own small basket of 10 biotechs across different stages and specific disease focus (coughlupuscough) opposed to XBI. Looking under the hood of XBI at the top 10 holdings, maybe 2 or 3 standout as truly opportunistic. Just my .02 but there are MANY biocaps that present incredible opportunities whenever the market bottoms and systemic fear dissipates - which it always does, retail is always too short sighted. If you have at least 18 months, investors should be dollar cost averaging while adding in traunch's, this will create better outcomes and long term wealth creation.

Intellia Therapeutics Inc NTLA 1.18%
Editas Medicine Inc EDIT 0.94%
Anavex Life Sciences Corp AVXL 0.92%
Beam Therapeutics Inc BEAM 0.90%
MannKind Corp MNKD 0.84%
Translate Bio Inc TBIO 0.80%
Macrogenics Inc MGNX 0.79%
Ocugen Inc OCGN 0.79%
Seres Therapeutics Inc MCRB 0.72%
Twist Bioscience Corp TWST 0.72%

[Sthe]

I'm totally jittering, I'd better just leave it at that.

[scarlet knight]

Buy when there is blood in the streets. Has to be about now.

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

People deciding to add to positions are crooks?

Ok guess I am a crook then. This place is really lost.

Sorry, completely respect your posts here and wisdom, and I’m not critiquing your purchase by any means, but a 3% Nasdaq pump followed by a near 5% dump is not retail adding positions. The news is the same, the reaction is opposite.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

Buy when there is blood in the streets. Has to be about now.

Imo, there is no rush.

The markets aren’t going up dramatically any time soon. To many problems on the horizon.

I also have friends that think we will see an S&P at 3000 around Labor Day.

Hold on brother. It’s ugly lately for sure. But keep holding

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

Imo, there is no rush.

The markets aren’t going up dramatically any time soon. To many problems on the horizon.

I also have friends that think we will see an S&P at 3000 around Labor Day.

Hold on brother. It’s ugly lately for sure. But keep holding

once people start giving price targets of apple < 100, etc, i start to feel like maybe we're close to the bottom (already seeing this lol). but like you said, i really don't see how it's not a prolonged bottom. not gonna be a V shape recovery straight up like in 2020 where people were blessed with ridiculous gains 2 months after dca'ing into the bottom

going to start looking at the beat down growth stocks already down 90% soon because those will probably start moving first. there are some huge disconnects already like with coinbase, but the problem with that one is seeing where crypto goes and there are multiple billion dollar funds blowing up this past week there

[pearson1995]

UK investor here.
The Dow is certainly getting beaten up, FTSE not quite as bad. BTC being really beaten.

All the money from BTC where is it going to go? Surely we have a long way to run in this bear market, it only just beginning.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by pearson1995

UK investor here.
The Dow is certainly getting beaten up, FTSE not quite as bad. BTC being really beaten.

All the money from BTC where is it going to go? Surely we have a long way to run in this bear market, it only just beginning.

btc is down heavily due to mass liquidations and funds going under, unfortunately these guys were overleveraged on alt coins like idiots instead of just playing it safe and being rich in the long run

[huncho]

2 year yield down, 10 year yield down, stocks down, dollar index down, btc down and for a majority of the day so was oil and gold

really incredible and not much else to say at this point. not sure how it's possible to have every single market blow up at once (minus oil). real estate would be the final act i guess

saw this earlier as well :

[Laszlo]

I took a pretty incredible hit on a few positions but I’m in for the long run and that’s my mantra. And these are solid investments with lower risk thresholds too. Argh.

Trying to think of other things like learning how to play the trumpet. Haha

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by huncho

2 year yield down, 10 year yield down, stocks down, dollar index down, btc down and for a majority of the day so was oil and gold

really incredible and not much else to say at this point. not sure how it's possible to have every single market blow up at once (minus oil). real estate would be the final act i guess

saw this earlier as well :

Maybe they will drive it low and then send it back up.

[espanol]

To run the risk of not upsetting too many people here, take a look at these visuals from Putnam:
https://www.putnam.com/literature/pd...525199b64b.pdf

I’d respectfully suggest to all people reading this, do not listen to those that recommend you should react to recent events by not being exposed to the equity markets. Not a single person knows for certain what will happen to equities moving forward. What we do know is that most major indices are between 20-35% cheaper than they were on 12/31/21. Why does this matter? Well, graphic above shows how dangerous it can be to be out of the market. If history is any indication of where we are headed, the markets are forward-looking and those late to react to the crowded trade can get burned. Those holding out will not time this correctly, I can say that with certainty. They do not know information before it is released, and will not know how/when to trade on positive information quick enough.

If you have a long time horizon (10+ years), which you should for investing, consider rebalancing into depressed assets like stocks, within your given tolerance for risk. Don’t bet your lunch money, as equities are not for speculation (looking at you r/wallstreetbets). It may pay off tomorrow, or ten years from now, but if history is any indication, we will eventually climb this wall of worry as we always have. Those in cash will likely miss it.

Do farmers sell their farm every time they hit a snag or a season of poor crop growth? Just because you have the ability to trade instantaneously from your smart phone doesn’t mean you should. Statistically, you will lose if you do so.

Disclaimer: this is just an opinion. Act on your own research, and not research from keyboard warriors like me. I’m merely here to provide another opinion.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by espanol

CAPE is helpful but shouldn’t be included in a vacuum. If anything, CAPE should marginally adjust upward overtime as the general makeup of the economy changes, and new innovative sectors emerge. Behavior finance is more of a force than many realize. Plus, looking at data from the 19th century isn’t extremely relevant to today’s modern financial system.

I subscribe to Buffett and Graham, and think these quotes from the Oracle put things in perspective: “Everything in valuation gets back to interest rates;” “The most important thing is future interest rates;” and “If I could only pick one statistic to ask you about the future before I gave the answer, I would not ask you about GDP growth, I would not ask you about who was going to be president… a million things I wouldn’t [ask]… I would ask you what the interest rate is going to be over the next 20 years on average.”

Why are interest rates important? It’s how we assign margin to discount future cash flows. When rates are low, valuations theoretically have no ceiling. But as rates rise, so does the risk free rate, and valuations suffer.

I’d be much more focused on the future of interest rates than anything else. It dictates everything in our economy. If you believe rates will go up, then it’s likely future valuations will decline.

Originally Posted by espanol

To run the risk of not upsetting too many people here, take a look at these visuals from Putnam:
https://www.putnam.com/literature/pd...525199b64b.pdf

I’d respectfully suggest to all people reading this, do not listen to those that recommend you should react to recent events by not being exposed to the equity markets. Not a single person knows for certain what will happen to equities moving forward. What we do know is that most major indices are between 20-35% cheaper than they were on 12/31/21. Why does this matter? Well, graphic above shows how dangerous it can be to be out of the market. If history is any indication of where we are headed, the markets are forward-looking and those late to react to the crowded trade can get burned. Those holding out will not time this correctly, I can say that with certainty. They do not know information before it is released, and will not know how/when to trade on positive information quick enough.

If you have a long time horizon (10+ years), which you should for investing, consider rebalancing into depressed assets like stocks, within your given tolerance for risk. Don’t bet your lunch money, as equities are not for speculation (looking at you r/wallstreetbets). It may pay off tomorrow, or ten years from now, but if history is any indication, we will eventually climb this wall of worry as we always have. Those in cash will likely miss it.

Do farmers sell their farm every time they hit a snag or a season of poor crop growth? Just because you have the ability to trade instantaneously from your smart phone doesn’t mean you should. Statistically, you will lose if you do so.

Disclaimer: this is just an opinion. Act on your own research, and not research from keyboard warriors like me. I’m merely here to provide another opinion.

You sir have contributed 2 highly intelligent posts!

In the short term, don't fight the Fed. As long as they are hiking (and they seem to be accelerating as they should be), the market will continue to have downward trajectory. If history has taught us anything, it's that the Fed over shoots both on the way up and down.

Long term, the market will be fine, but there will be pain from those that are over leveraged. The end of cheap money seems to be here but you never know with both future fiscal and monetary policies.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Long term, the market will be fine, but there will be pain from those that are over leveraged.

So wait for the bottom, which we're not at yet imho.

The end of cheap money seems to be here but you never know with both future fiscal and monetary policies.

Not at the end just yet, and i expect more QE / 'debt forgiveness' at some point sooner rather than later in the USA considering the financial pain for the lower 50% combined with elections coming up at typical intervals.

[gabrielnovar]

Originally Posted by vipereaper30

I'm starting to get interested myself but staying patient assessing for an extended overcorrection. Where/what are you looking at in biotech?

I am targeting PACB/TWST ( more speculative down the curve) but they did very well for me last 'bubble' going to sit on them until they take off again.

GL! ETFs are the lazy way to play and still get the upside.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

You sir have contributed 2 highly intelligent posts!

In the short term, don't fight the Fed. As long as they are hiking (and they seem to be accelerating as they should be), the market will continue to have downward trajectory. If history has taught us anything, it's that the Fed over shoots both on the way up and down.

Long term, the market will be fine, but there will be pain from those that are over leveraged. The end of cheap money seems to be here but you never know with both future fiscal and monetary policies.

Thank you for your kind words. You’re spot on about leverage, albeit they’re already getting smacked. To quote the Oracle one more time “only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked.”

Mathematically the market does have more room to drop, but I do believe the pending rate increases are already priced in. Certainly unpopular opinion here, but the Fed has been very transparent with their intentions of future rate increases. They’ve diverted, but stuck to the ‘schedule.’

Markets move quickly, and those willing to sacrifice sufficient in their quest for perfection will lose out on the upside. Many forget markets are forward-thinking, and most of the ‘doom-and-gloom’ cited in this thread has already been priced in.

[macrowatch]

I noticed today rates to finance Teslas jumped from 3.75% to 5.37% between the hike announcement. This on top of their price hikes. I read on Bloomberg that homebuilders in Canada and US are starting to drop prices to move inventory.

I talked with some land developers the other day that said they were waiting for the weakest developers to fold so they can swoop in to pick up the project completions at good ROI.

My lick the finger and guess which way the wind is blowing is that values should be -10% off 2019 highs with apples to apples interest rate but only inflation factored in. -15 % to -20% off 2019 highs to factor in final rates central banks settle into plus inflation plus resulting impact on earnings. Probably some interesting opportunities to pick up beaten up stocks in Europe after Bridgewater is done shorting and ride up the wave with a good FX rate locked in.

Interesting times in 2022!!!

Despite all of this, I'm still diamond hands on Daytonas.

[uscmatt99]

Originally Posted by espanol

To run the risk of not upsetting too many people here, take a look at these visuals from Putnam:
https://www.putnam.com/literature/pd...525199b64b.pdf

I’d respectfully suggest to all people reading this, do not listen to those that recommend you should react to recent events by not being exposed to the equity markets. Not a single person knows for certain what will happen to equities moving forward. What we do know is that most major indices are between 20-35% cheaper than they were on 12/31/21. Why does this matter? Well, graphic above shows how dangerous it can be to be out of the market. If history is any indication of where we are headed, the markets are forward-looking and those late to react to the crowded trade can get burned. Those holding out will not time this correctly, I can say that with certainty. They do not know information before it is released, and will not know how/when to trade on positive information quick enough.

If you have a long time horizon (10+ years), which you should for investing, consider rebalancing into depressed assets like stocks, within your given tolerance for risk. Don’t bet your lunch money, as equities are not for speculation (looking at you r/wallstreetbets). It may pay off tomorrow, or ten years from now, but if history is any indication, we will eventually climb this wall of worry as we always have. Those in cash will likely miss it.

Do farmers sell their farm every time they hit a snag or a season of poor crop growth? Just because you have the ability to trade instantaneously from your smart phone doesn’t mean you should. Statistically, you will lose if you do so.

Disclaimer: this is just an opinion. Act on your own research, and not research from keyboard warriors like me. I’m merely here to provide another opinion.

This is a great post. If your time horizon is 5-10 years out you don't need to pull money out at the top and/or put money in at the bottom to grow wealth over time. Very few investors can luck into both getting out at the first sign of a drop, and reentering at a bottom. The average joe will be served just fine by plopping money into the market using diversified funds at regular intervals during the accumulation phase of life, as long as there are 6-12 months cash reserves for expenses in the case of job loss or other catastrophe.

[espanol]

Originally Posted by uscmatt99

This is a great post. If your time horizon is 5-10 years out you don't need to pull money out at the top and/or put money in at the bottom to grow wealth over time. Very few investors can luck into both getting out at the first sign of a drop, and reentering at a bottom. The average joe will be served just fine by plopping money into the market using diversified funds at regular intervals during the accumulation phase of life, as long as there are 6-12 months cash reserves for expenses in the case of job loss or other catastrophe.

Thanks; ditto to your post. Only luck is involved in timing a bottom, and it’s only a false hope statistically for retail investors. House always has odds as they say…

It’s important to create a well-defined, unemotional, disciplined and repeatable process for managing your own funds. Otherwise, ‘investing’ is no different than speculating/gambling on certain events/biases.

One commonly overlooked principal behind investing: the market is not the economy, and the economy is not the market. Bear markets are important to rid the financial system of excess. As can be seen from the collapse of the most expensive stocks and sectors in the market, we have largely expunged those excesses IMO.

Misery loves company, and it’s easy to speculate this is the beginning of a greater collapse. It might be, who knows. If investors continue to crowd the negative trade then it could well be. But right or wrong, I follow mean reversion and see this as no different than buying a few discount winter clothes in June.