Talking Stocks 2.0

[mroberts]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

... As long as they are hiking (and they seem to be accelerating as they should be), the market will continue to have downward trajectory...

The initial reaction to hiking is negative, but for most of the Feds history you had positive returns on the SP >6 months after the first rate hike. Of course there are many variables that didn't exists previously so this time could be different. The first one this cycle was in March and what we've already seen is obviously an outlier in this set of data.

[gabrielnovar]

^^ agreed. I can't find anyone I know who is bullish, the same narrative is 'stocks are a scam and will crash, watch'

Say we are all wrong and this is just a pause and we start to rally again until next year to see if the recession is over. If its still lingering then we drop again

[GB-man]

[GoWarriors]

Originally Posted by mroberts

The initial reaction to hiking is negative, but for most of the Feds history you had positive returns on the SP >6 months after the first rate hike. Of course there are many variables that didn't exists previously so this time could be different. The first one this cycle was in March and what we've already seen is obviously an outlier in this set of data.

These numbers only go back to 1983... there hasn't been much high inflation since then. Would be more interesting to look at the 1966-1982 period - aka the 'Great Inflation', in order to get something more comparable to now.



Here's a chart that goes back further.

[honuswagner13]

Just saw that bitcoin is at $17,600.

This could be hurting grey dealers too, especially if they were holding bitcoin, instead of parking cash in their bank account.

[SDGT3]

Didn't Tesla take up a big position in BTC in 2021 and said they would accept it as payment for cars as well?

[huncho]

Originally Posted by honuswagner13

Just saw that bitcoin is at $17,600.

This could be hurting grey dealers too, especially if they were holding bitcoin, instead of parking cash in their bank account.

yup... when a ~15b venture capital firm gets liquidated this is what happens lol. lotta pain in the short term, but long term remains the same. let's see where it lands after the waves of liquidation

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Didn't Tesla take up a big position in BTC in 2021 and said they would accept it as payment for cars as well?

yeah, but this isn't natural price action. this is the long term effect of the luna collapse. will be interesting to see what elon does/did with their btc

[7sins]

Originally Posted by GoWarriors

These numbers only go back to 1983... there hasn't been much high inflation since then. Would be more interesting to look at the 1966-1982 period - aka the 'Great Inflation', in order to get something more comparable to now.



Here's a chart that goes back further.

This should be helpful and pinpoints different geopolitical and economic events.



BAC yesterday made a massive call on SP500 back to 6000. Worth a quick read given all the fear and pessimism in this thread. Hopefully fares better than their call on the 10yr treasury to 2.25% this year.

https://www.investing.com/news/stock...-432SI-2838264

[strettyend]

No one wants to talk stocks anymore? Lol

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by strettyend

No one wants to talk stocks anymore? Lol

Sadly the thread stopped being about that a long time ago.

I wish people actually did want to talk about stocks

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by strettyend

No one wants to talk stocks anymore? Lol

Let’s do that ….

Is anyone else here seeing value in certain sectors? What I see is multiple contraction but some companies continue to report strong earnings. In other words, there are good stocks on sale relative to historic multiples.

Anyone else?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Let’s do that ….

Is anyone else here seeing value in certain sectors? What I see is multiple contraction but some companies continue to report strong earnings. In other words, there are good stocks on sale relative to historic multiples.

Anyone else?

Tech is becoming attractive, energy may stay strong. Staples and cyclicals are also getting attractive. The P/E’s on some are approaching book and the dividends are getting close to 4%. If you are a long term holder and will be patient and even average down, this is a great opportunity. Business is still very strong, consumers are spending, unemployment is low.

I am not at my desk where I keep my shopping list but I have been buying. Now that I admit that people will think I am a crook so

[strettyend]

I found this to be an interesting take by Michael Burry. Not that I necessarily agree but an interesting take to ponder:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ious-attention

[logo]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Tech is becoming attractive, energy may stay strong. Staples and cyclicals are also getting attractive. The P/E’s on some are approaching book and the dividends are getting close to 4%. If you are a long term holder and will be patient and even average down, this is a great opportunity. Business is still very strong, consumers are spending, unemployment is low.

I am not at my desk where I keep my shopping list but I have been buying. Now that I admit that people will think I am a crook so

Just you who worries about this. I’m afraid you’ve misinterpreted a general comment in jest about the market having a $3 trillion pump and dump within 24h of Fed news as being a personal comment directed to you.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by strettyend

No one wants to talk stocks anymore? Lol

Maybe we should start a new thread? Talking Stocks 3.0

So, what happened to Vinco (BBIG) yesterday? I see no news, so I presume that someone dumped a big position with limited buyers.

[trippinjimmy]

Originally Posted by brandrea

Let’s do that ….

Is anyone else here seeing value in certain sectors? What I see is multiple contraction but some companies continue to report strong earnings. In other words, there are good stocks on sale relative to historic multiples.

Anyone else?

I like XBI at these levels for a long term hold.


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[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by strettyend

I found this to be an interesting take by Michael Burry. Not that I necessarily agree but an interesting take to ponder:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...ious-attention

Folks should be able to read the article with my share link.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...86b_story.html

If not, let me know

[7sins]

Originally Posted by m j b

Maybe we should start a new thread? Talking Stocks 3.0

So, what happened to Vinco (BBIG) yesterday? I see no news, so I presume that someone dumped a big position with limited buyers.

Tyde spinoff dist I believe

[austinp]

Ive been averaging down in some of the stocks that I’m trying to build larger positions in. Tech and Consumer staples.


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[m j b]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Tyde spinoff dist I believe

Ah ha! You are correct my friend. Tyde looks to be down around 40% (total) pre-market.

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by m j b

Ah ha! You are correct my friend. Tyde looks to be down around 40% (total) pre-market.

I lost 30% this week because of BBIG and TYDE. It’s not pretty.


Sent from my Apple privacy invasion product

[superdog]

Consumer spending is going down. When numbers come back, and projections are missed, stocks will continue to slide.

IMO, this is not the right time to buy.

Keeping stock piling cash. Wait until next earnings come out. Then reevaluate.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

I lost 30% this week because of BBIG and TYDE. It’s not pretty.


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Why did you invest in these stocks?

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Why did you invest in these stocks?

Well. In my defense I got the TYDE for holding BBIG. I have bought and sold BBIG a half dozen times or so. Bought in thinking it would run again when TYDE came out. It didn’t. No harm done though, I took most of my money out in September. Just held a small position in BBIG more to see what would happen with the TYDE. Now just going to hold till it goes up or I die.


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[jaisonline]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-infl...mobilewebshare


U.S. consumer inflation rose to a new four-decade high at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, extending a year and a half stretch of persistently higher prices.

The consumer-price index’s rate of increase last month was the highest since December 1981, the Labor Department said Wednesday. It also eclipsed May’s annual rate of 8.6% that led Federal Reserve officials to shift to a faster pace of benchmark interest-rate increases in its campaign to bring down inflation.

The report likely keeps the Fed on track to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point at its meeting later this month. Stocks dropped and bond yields jumped following the inflation report.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, increased by 5.9% in June from a year earlier, slightly less than May’s 6.0% gain, the Labor Department said.

[-dustin]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-infl...mobilewebshare


U.S. consumer inflation rose to a new four-decade high at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, extending a year and a half stretch of persistently higher prices.

The consumer-price index’s rate of increase last month was the highest since December 1981, the Labor Department said Wednesday. It also eclipsed May’s annual rate of 8.6% that led Federal Reserve officials to shift to a faster pace of benchmark interest-rate increases in its campaign to bring down inflation.

The report likely keeps the Fed on track to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point at its meeting later this month. Stocks dropped and bond yields jumped following the inflation report.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, increased by 5.9% in June from a year earlier, slightly less than May’s 6.0% gain, the Labor Department said.

Can someone quote this post once? Just want to test Tapatalk’s notification ‘fix’.

...

Damn, it's been quiet in here.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by jaisonline

https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-infl...mobilewebshare


U.S. consumer inflation rose to a new four-decade high at an annual rate of 9.1% in June, extending a year and a half stretch of persistently higher prices.

The consumer-price index’s rate of increase last month was the highest since December 1981, the Labor Department said Wednesday. It also eclipsed May’s annual rate of 8.6% that led Federal Reserve officials to shift to a faster pace of benchmark interest-rate increases in its campaign to bring down inflation.

The report likely keeps the Fed on track to raise its benchmark interest rate by 0.75 percentage point at its meeting later this month. Stocks dropped and bond yields jumped following the inflation report.

Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, increased by 5.9% in June from a year earlier, slightly less than May’s 6.0% gain, the Labor Department said.

Can someone quote this post once? Just want to test Tapatalk’s notification ‘fix’.

Test

[jaisonline]

Thanks. It works.

[SDGT3]

Fed will definitely go at least .75 this month then there's no meeting until Sept. Given the shift in commodities, I "believe" we've seen peak inflation and this will be the highest reading we will see moving forward. The question is how much lower will it go? Going from 9.1% to 8.8% isn't much of a move but if we can get to low 7's by Sept when the Fed is scheduled to meet again, then perhaps we get the anticipated .5% raise. Any higher then we could go another .75%.

Diesel is still stubbornly high which affects virtually everything being produced/shipped/trucked to market.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

Fed will definitely go at least .75 this month then there's no meeting until Sept. Given the shift in commodities, I "believe" we've seen peak inflation and this will be the highest reading we will see moving forward. The question is how much lower will it go? Going from 9.1% to 8.8% isn't much of a move but if we can get to low 7's by Sept when the Fed is scheduled to meet again, then perhaps we get the anticipated .5% raise. Any higher then we could go another .75%.

Diesel is still stubbornly high which affects virtually everything being produced/shipped/trucked to market.

Diesel, yes. Even the hay bales I buy for my donkeys has shot up quite a bit.