Talking Stocks 2.0

[superdog]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Time will likely be the only cure. Fed has done pretty much all they can. I expect a 4 handle on inflation by end of Q1. That being said, I wasn't expecting a hot read this morning either. I am buying this morning but tight stops in place. When market is down this far and VIX in the red, it's time to hold nose and do something.

you are likely doing the right thing.

I am still holding. Bank earnings tomorrow. More data coming. None of it is going to be good.

In fact, I am now liquidating everything. Literally everything. Raising as much cash as possible to DCA into the markets. But I am not ready just yet. And happy getting my circa 3% for the moment in my high yield savings/short term bonds.

[superdog]

btw, when I say everything, that does not include the Turbo S. that stays, but even the condo I am living in is up for sale. I am simply waiting the numbers I want. I won't take less than what I want on any of it.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by superdog

you are likely doing the right thing.

I am still holding. Bank earnings tomorrow. More data coming. None of it is going to be good.

In fact, I am now liquidating everything. Literally everything. Raising as much cash as possible to DCA into the markets. But I am not ready just yet. And happy getting my circa 3% for the moment in my high yield savings/short term bonds.

I'm purely a trader in this market, I can liquidate everything in 5 seconds and have had to do that several times this year. if I was an investor I wouldn't step in here as I do believe the lows are still coming. I've been putting my investment money in short term bonds/Ts too. Can't beat the return and peace of mind.

[huncho]

alright what just happened? lol

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by superdog

btw, when I say everything, that does not include the Turbo S. that stays, but even the condo I am living in is up for sale. I am simply waiting the numbers I want. I won't take less than what I want on any of it.

If you ever sell the 911 to get in, I'd call that a market bottom indicator.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by huncho

alright what just happened? lol

Too early to tell for sure, but right now strong volume on the upside everywhere. Not sure if it's just short covering or algos triggered by 3500 or big boys jumping in but right now (11:36) it's biggest freight train to the upside I've seen in months. QQQ could hit average daily volume before noon.

[SDGT3]

Originally Posted by huncho

so what does the fed do now? clearly jacking up the rates more and more has no immediate impact on inflation so is there a point in doing 75-100? at the same time the more they hike the higher the dollar goes and we get closer to something breaking. during the summer i didn't understand how raising rates so aggressively to kill demand was their solution to fighting supply chain inflation

It's a tug of war between the monetary side and fiscal side instead of everyone pulling in one direction. The problem is the Fed isn't getting any help on the fiscal side from this administration so they're out there to go it alone and they're raising rates and removing liquidity as their only measures. To top it off, gas prices on the west coast have been back to historic high levels ($6-$7 a gallon) and now they're rising everywhere else in the country as well.

We're halfway through October and prices are still rising in all categories including food and energy so don't expect any drop for the November readings in PPI or CPI.

.75% raise is virtual lock in 3 weeks. I say another .75% in December with an outside chance at 1% if the numbers look really bad for Nov. inflation coupled with the fact the Fed won't meet in January so they may want to raise higher than they normally would. This would bring the Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. By February there should be more clarity on whether to taper down or hold rates.

[m j b]

Quite the rollercoaster today. This morning I'm down $50K and this afternoon I'm up $50K.

OK, not $50K. $7K. But you get my point.

I did, on a whim, buy some S&P500 calls in the money and put a sell order in when they doubled (I do have to do a little work during the day and can't always watch the market) and the position closed out after an hour for a nice little profit for mjb.

mjb could buy a new watch. Well, an Omega, maybe. Can't get a Rolex.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

alright what just happened? lol

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Too early to tell for sure, but right now strong volume on the upside everywhere. Not sure if it's just short covering or algos triggered by 3500 or big boys jumping in but right now (11:36) it's biggest freight train to the upside I've seen in months. QQQ could hit average daily volume before noon.

Originally Posted by SDGT3

It's a tug of war between the monetary side and fiscal side instead of everyone pulling in one direction. The problem is the Fed isn't getting any help on the fiscal side from this administration so they're out there to go it alone and they're raising rates and removing liquidity as their only measures. To top it off, gas prices on the west coast have been back to historic high levels ($6-$7 a gallon) and now they're rising everywhere else in the country as well.

We're halfway through October and prices are still rising in all categories including food and energy so don't expect any drop for the November readings in PPI or CPI.

.75% raise is virtual lock in 3 weeks. I say another .75% in December with an outside chance at 1% if the numbers look really bad for Nov. inflation coupled with the fact the Fed won't meet in January so they may want to raise higher than they normally would. This would bring the Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. By February there should be more clarity on whether to taper down or hold rates.

ECB report that the needed terminal rate/deposit rate would be 2.25% to target inflation as well. About 75 bps below expectation.

Should see the market give some back now though in the coming days, because the quality of that predictive model is debatable.

Lots of short covering today. I think the CTAs were buying actually, but we will see. You can approximate below with the link to the exposures of the SG Trend Index thru yesterday trading close.

https://cib.societegenerale.com/file...een/index.html

[huncho]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

It's a tug of war between the monetary side and fiscal side instead of everyone pulling in one direction. The problem is the Fed isn't getting any help on the fiscal side from this administration so they're out there to go it alone and they're raising rates and removing liquidity as their only measures. To top it off, gas prices on the west coast have been back to historic high levels ($6-$7 a gallon) and now they're rising everywhere else in the country as well.

We're halfway through October and prices are still rising in all categories including food and energy so don't expect any drop for the November readings in PPI or CPI.

.75% raise is virtual lock in 3 weeks. I say another .75% in December with an outside chance at 1% if the numbers look really bad for Nov. inflation coupled with the fact the Fed won't meet in January so they may want to raise higher than they normally would. This would bring the Fed funds rate to 4.75-5%. By February there should be more clarity on whether to taper down or hold rates.

yeah so that goes back to my point, would raising rates that much cause people to stop buying gas? when gas was $5 a gallon here in nyc traffic was pretty much unchanged, granted it was summer with school out so it wasn't a real comparison

it makes sense that demand for luxury goods, electronics and whatever else would drop as people struggle to balance the rising costs of gas, food and rent, but i still don't think continuing this path fixes the actual issue. people will be able to finally buy a car maybe, but it doesn't impact essentials. your point about the fed getting no help is correct sadly

[superdog]

Truth is this swing might be good for today. But it’s not good overall. This much volatility simply shows that we are in the midst of it all.

I’m thrilled too with today. Getting a nice little bump. But overall it’s not a good sign.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

Truth is this swing might be good for today. But it’s not good overall. This much volatility simply shows that we are in the midst of it all.

I’m thrilled too with today. Getting a nice little bump. But overall it’s not a good sign.

i would not be surprised at all if we retrace this entire pump tomorrow or next week, but at the same time the nasdaq was just shy of being down 40% after this second leg down of 23% in 7 weeks, so i feel like being too bearish here is the same as being greedy at the top. too many people are expecting doomsday after a historically bad year already

[HHIslander]

VIX started climbing at 1:30 while market climbed, will close well of lows, it should be down much more than this. Market on close imbalance only 280m to buy. Confidence not very high.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

VIX started climbing at 1:30 while market climbed, will close well of lows, it should be down much more than this. Market on close imbalance only 280m to buy. Confidence not very high.

Check out the SG Trend Index link I posted. I wonder if the algos/CTAs took profit on short exposures today and then put the money to work buying long positions on the same equity today. Societe Generale puts it out free/publicly on their site. These help the market trade efficiently on the market side. Though imo at least, the passive index products on the retail side contribute to vol that invest in similar because subject to individual investor behavioral finance tendencies vs institutional algos.

This should help give some info on the algos. Looks like they took early gains in short exposures, triggered long buys and the demand for long helped drive some of the market. Just my perspective and only one portion of the market of course

https://cib.societegenerale.com/file...nstituents.pdf

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Check out the SG Trend Index link I posted. I wonder if the algos/CTAs took profit on short exposures today and then put the money to work buying long positions on the same equity today. Societe Generale puts it out free/publicly on their site. These help the market trade efficiently on the market side. Though imo at least, the passive index products on the retail side contribute to vol that invest in similar because subject to individual investor behavioral finance tendencies vs institutional algos.

This should help give some info on the algos. Looks like they took early gains in short exposures, triggered long buys and the demand for long helped drive some of the market. Just my perspective and only one portion of the market of course

https://cib.societegenerale.com/file...nstituents.pdf

it's interesting because normally cpi days are trend days so almost every time it was bad there's been aggressive selling all day ending in a horrible close. i think this is the first time we've had a reversal like this on a cpi day, it reminds me of invasion day back in feb. just goes to show algos run the entire market right now. every huge move feels like one side being squeezed

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Check out the SG Trend Index link I posted. I wonder if the algos/CTAs took profit on short exposures today and then put the money to work buying long positions on the same equity today. Societe Generale puts it out free/publicly on their site. These help the market trade efficiently on the market side. Though imo at least, the passive index products on the retail side contribute to vol that invest in similar because subject to individual investor behavioral finance tendencies vs institutional algos.

This should help give some info on the algos. Looks like they took early gains in short exposures, triggered long buys and the demand for long helped drive some of the market. Just my perspective and only one portion of the market of course

https://cib.societegenerale.com/file...nstituents.pdf

Very interesting, thanks for that. I’m going to take a deep dive in the AM. How did you come across that? Just curious. A little surprised it’s free.

Tend to agree with your perspective. If bank earnings come in bad, it ought to make for an interesting day.

[Kowaco]

Warren Buffet said panic is instantaneous, confidence happens a lot slower. I think people are watching their money slowly dwindling and get fooled by these sharp rebounds thinking it’s going to turn around. At some point people are going to just get out because they’re afraid they’ll lose everything if they don’t and that will start the panic. Just my opinion but I don’t see any good news on the horizon.


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[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by m j b

Quite the rollercoaster today. This morning I'm down $50K and this afternoon I'm up $50K.

OK, not $50K. $7K. But you get my point.

I did, on a whim, buy some S&P500 calls in the money and put a sell order in when they doubled (I do have to do a little work during the day and can't always watch the market) and the position closed out after an hour for a nice little profit for mjb.

mjb could buy a new watch. Well, an Omega, maybe. Can't get a Rolex.

True. The volatility is just insane.

One of my few wins this year.

I bought SQQQ @ 7:28am and 8:27am yesterday. Had a feeling the CPI #s were going to be hot. Set a trailing 1% stop and was out of my position at 8:36am. The quick and vicious swings are too much for me especially since I don’t day trade. So happy I didn’t hold longer.

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Well that’s interesting. Did they have early access to today’s CPI print?

Good question.

Not to worry though, they are getting saved despite poor financial decisions to avoid a major collapse to their pension system.

[huncho]

nice bait in premarket just to retrace yesterday's entire move, market says thanks for playing yet again lol

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

it's interesting because normally cpi days are trend days so almost every time it was bad there's been aggressive selling all day ending in a horrible close. i think this is the first time we've had a reversal like this on a cpi day, it reminds me of invasion day back in feb. just goes to show algos run the entire market right now. every huge move feels like one side being squeezed

I think it's the cheap retail algos causing the vol though, like those hedging/driving the cap weight indices. Just imo

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Very interesting, thanks for that. I’m going to take a deep dive in the AM. How did you come across that? Just curious. A little surprised it’s free.

Tend to agree with your perspective. If bank earnings come in bad, it ought to make for an interesting day.

I know the CTA industry well, so have followed for years. The SG Trend has the 10 largest trend following strategies from CTA in the industry. They're showing aggregated exposures, which is probably why free and timely since non of the underlying programs are shown on an individual basis and doesn't really give positions away at the program level. You can reference this to see what type of buying/selling may be triggered in the market. While the CTAs are a large portion of influence, they are not the only (and probably not the largest), so always take with a small grain of salt. Most of the other algos though shouldn't deviate too far from what you see here. That said the industry has other quant programs as well beyond trend following. Trend following just happens to be a basic quant strategy, so the most often replicated by proprietary trading desks that are not CTAs and why a good proxy for a portion of the market.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by 904VT

I think it's the cheap retail algos causing the vol though, like those hedging/driving the cap weight indices. Just imo



I know the CTA industry well, so have followed for years. The SG Trend has the 10 largest trend following strategies from CTA in the industry. They're showing aggregated exposures, which is probably why free and timely since non of the underlying programs are shown on an individual basis and doesn't really give positions away at the program level. You can reference this to see what type of buying/selling may be triggered in the market. While the CTAs are a large portion of influence, they are not the only (and probably not the largest), so always take with a small grain of salt. Most of the other algos though shouldn't deviate too far from what you see here. That said the industry has other quant programs as well beyond trend following. Trend following just happens to be a basic quant strategy, so the most often replicated by proprietary trading desks that are not CTAs and why a good proxy for a portion of the market.

Thanks much for the reply. I learned a lot by going through that link.

Admittedly, I don't follow commodities or trade a lot of futures. I subscribe to a pretty good technical analysis service but that's not about as far as it goes. I tend to keep that stuff kind of cocktail napkiny simple. But that sg is one source of data that I will have to keep on my radar.

Thanks again...

[904VT]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

Thanks much for the reply. I learned a lot by going through that link.

Admittedly, I don't follow commodities or trade a lot of futures. I subscribe to a pretty good technical analysis service but that's not about as far as it goes. I tend to keep that stuff kind of cocktail napkiny simple. But that sg is one source of data that I will have to keep on my radar.

Thanks again...

Yes, at the very least it's just one more source of factor data. Shows where the market demand may go. CTAs are up big this year as a whole. Nice chatting

[Kowaco]

Originally Posted by huncho

nice bait in premarket just to retrace yesterday's entire move, market says thanks for playing yet again lol

It looks like selling into the rally. I watched Peter Lynch for some motivation, but I think we’ve got a lot more to go down. It seems like every negative event is spun to be good which probably means it’s going to turn out bad.


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by huncho

so what does the fed do now? clearly jacking up the rates more and more has no immediate impact on inflation so is there a point in doing 75-100? at the same time the more they hike the higher the dollar goes and we get closer to something breaking. during the summer i didn't understand how raising rates so aggressively to kill demand was their solution to fighting supply chain inflation

Remember that the majority of the future rate hikes are already priced into the futures curve and treasury curve. IE the 2 year treasury foreshadows where the FED funds rate is going to go. It currently sits at ~4.50% and the FED funds rate is 3-3.25%. The FED has noted multiple times their terminal rate is 4.5%, thus even if the FED keeps raising rates you are not going to see yields move meaningfully higher from here. A year from now, yields will be the same or lower than they are today. It is important to separate good prices from services going forward.

The primary driver of inflation has rotated away from goods prices and to services—services inflation rose above goods prices in YoY terms. Services prices tend to be stickier and more persistent; that means that it is going to be harder to bring services inflation lower than it has been for goods inflation, which has improved as the global supply chain has healed.

How does services inflation come down? Housing-related inflation has to decelerate and the labor market has to weaken. The former is mechanical—the lagged impact of past house price increases is still feeding into shelter inflation, which is the largest single component of the CPI basket. It takes a year or more for house price increases to filter fully into the inflation index, and the peak in YoY house prices was only 6 months ago. Housing-related inflation alone is contributing 2.7 percentage points to CPI; until that comes down, it’s going to be very difficult for inflation as a whole to moderate.

The second prereq for services inflation to fall is labor market weakness. Services inflation as a whole resonates to wages. Until wages come down, it’s hard to expect meaningful improvement in services inflation. And with the labor market still adding 250k or so jobs per months and the unemployment rate at 3.5%, there is little reason to expect that to happen.

Their guidance to date has been that it will take “several months” of moderating inflation in order to slow and eventually stop rate hikes. We are currently at zero months, and so in the short term, the policy implications are obvious: the Fed will raise rates by 75 bps at their November meeting.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

nice bait in premarket just to retrace yesterday's entire move, market says thanks for playing yet again lol

Jim Cramer is bearish on NVIDIA. May be time to buy if it’s hitting his idiot meter lol. Btw those Inverse Cramer have really taken off since we joked about.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by 904VT

Jim Cramer is bearish on NVIDIA. May be time to buy if it’s hitting his idiot meter lol. Btw those Inverse Cramer have really taken off since we joked about.

amazing that he flips bearish when it's down 65-70% lol

[904VT]

Originally Posted by huncho

amazing that he flips bearish when it's down 65-70% lol

I picked up a 4090 and their gen over gen improvement is unbelievable. Gaming, rendering, and deep learning all massive improvements. Ada is going to be a hit when we see the sub $800 cards hit the market after Ampere old inventory is moved imo. So I have an opposite opinion of Cramer's lol.

[Romeojk]

Anyone else still in AUPH with me? Up one day and down the next. I wonder if people will keep selling whenever there is movement up.

Almost looks like Snoopy.



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[RBradleigh]

More like a big FU ;)



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