Talking Stocks 2.0

[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by 7sins

For those riding the AUPH train with me, exceptional news on the IPR front today, they announced settlement with Sun today (played out exactly as my above post from Nov) https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...0103005512/en/. Waiting to see settlement details and if Sun is planning to pay any royalties to AUPH for their CEQUA product. Interesting day to release the news with the biggest biotech conference of the year next week. VERY happy I DCA'd down in Nov/Dec and posted those trades below to show the benefit of implementing DCA. Hopefully some of you made money as well after the beating from most of last year. Will trim a long the way up again, time to go watch shopping Lets hope 2023 trading pans out better than last year, cheers everyone.

Great News B!!

I’m in a small position compared to you. If only, so I am on the list for Vegas trip when this thing hits.


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[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by 7sins

For those riding the AUPH train with me, exceptional news on the IPR front today, they announced settlement with Sun today (played out exactly as my above post from Nov) https://www.businesswire.com/news/ho...0103005512/en/. Waiting to see settlement details and if Sun is planning to pay any royalties to AUPH for their CEQUA product. Interesting day to release the news with the biggest biotech conference of the year next week. VERY happy I DCA'd down in Nov/Dec and posted those trades below to show the benefit of implementing DCA. Hopefully some of you made money as well after the beating from most of last year. Will trim a long the way up again, time to go watch shopping Lets hope 2023 trading pans out better than last year, cheers everyone.

Hi B, I am super glad for the good news for a change. And hoping for more. But I'm still very much in the red, I DCA'd and am at around $11/share.

From the image it doesn't go back too far, looks like you only are winning. What about from 2021 when the price was in double digits, did you sell all of that for a loss back then. Here is when I bought.

[enjoythemusic]

It's not easy out there folks. Looks like 2023 could get quite challenging. Heck, even a major hedge fund, a.k.a. the Swiss National Bank, had massive losses of $143 Billion for 2022. They could have been smart and bought a lot of Swiss-made mechanical timepieces instead and done a lot better :)

[RBradleigh]

Woot! Almost back to net zero for NFLX, should I celebrate?


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by superdog

nice dude!! congrats. that is awesome news.

Thanks Seth, appreciate it buddy!

Originally Posted by MrGoat

Great News B!!

I’m in a small position compared to you. If only, so I am on the list for Vegas trip when this thing hits.


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You know it! Do you remember what I posted for BO for Vegas? I think it was $4B? That should be ~$25/share which is on the higher end of my updated DCF model as I don't think the LN market is as big as originally projected.

Originally Posted by Romeojk

Hi B, I am super glad for the good news for a change. And hoping for more. But I'm still very much in the red, I DCA'd and am at around $11/share.

From the image it doesn't go back too far, looks like you only are winning. What about from 2021 when the price was in double digits, did you sell all of that for a loss back then. Here is when I bought.

I hear you, last year was absolutely brutal and downright discouraging. I sold a few watches in Nov to fund those Dec trades I posted, brought my avg cost down to $5.35 at the time, not including options. Went all in, boom or bust baby. Most of my 2023 LEAPs I had booked massive losses on last year and was writing covered calls all year on my stock to collect premiums to lower my cost basis as well. Taking into consideration my losses on the options, I suspect my blended cost is closer to $8. Added more yesterday and today bringing my cost basis up to 5.97, posted below to verify.

We are running to $8 after the settlement news. Remember the PTAB and judge still need to approve the settlement, this takes anywhere from 1-2 weeks and is typically a formality. I suspect once that is finalized the stock goes on another run.

In addition they pre-announced earnings on Friday which they have NEVER done before. Revenue was up and more important patient start forms and another 200 patients on Lupkynis which was an 18% increase, all in their 8k: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release...22-net-revenue.

Not here to speculate buyout, it is fundamentally undervalued at $7.86, $1.1B in marketcap with $400M in cash and increasing rev at $130M+ annually. The SUN lawsuit created one heck of an opportunity. Now up 82% YTD Interesting 2M/$15M block buy today at 7.45. They are presenting tonight at the jpm biotech conference, will hear what Peter has to say before DCA higher again, I can't fathom at this point it is a GIA strategy, for sale sign is on the door.

As always, this is not financial advice, it is how I trade my own personal accounts, do your own DD.

[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by 7sins

Thanks Seth, appreciate it buddy!



You know it! Do you remember what I posted for BO for Vegas? I think it was $4B? That should be ~$25/share which is on the higher end of my updated DCF model as I don't think the LN market is as big as originally projected.



I hear you, last year was absolutely brutal and downright discouraging. I sold a few watches in Nov to fund those Dec trades I posted, brought my avg cost down to $5.35 at the time, not including options. Went all in, boom or bust baby. Most of my 2023 LEAPs I had booked massive losses on last year and was writing covered calls all year on my stock to collect premiums to lower my cost basis as well. Taking into consideration my losses on the options, I suspect my blended cost is closer to $8. Added more yesterday and today bringing my cost basis up to 5.97, posted below to verify.

We are running to $8 after the settlement news. Remember the PTAB and judge still need to approve the settlement, this takes anywhere from 1-2 weeks and is typically a formality. I suspect once that is finalized the stock goes on another run.

In addition they pre-announced earnings on Friday which they have NEVER done before. Revenue was up and more important patient start forms and another 200 patients on Lupkynis which was an 18% increase, all in their 8k: https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release...22-net-revenue.

Not here to speculate buyout, it is fundamentally undervalued at $7.86, $1.1B in marketcap with $400M in cash and increasing rev at $130M+ annually. The SUN lawsuit created one heck of an opportunity. Now up 82% YTD Interesting 2M/$15M block buy today at 7.45. They are presenting tonight at the jpm biotech conference, will hear what Peter has to say before DCA higher again, I can't fathom at this point it is a GIA strategy, for sale sign is on the door.

As always, this is not financial advice, it is how I trade my own personal accounts, do your own DD.

Thanks for the explanation and info B


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[MrGoat]

Originally Posted by 7sins

You know it! Do you remember what I posted for BO for Vegas? I think it was $4B? That should be ~$25/share which is on the higher end of my updated DCF model as I don't think the LN market is as big as originally projected

I don’t remember the exact number.

That being said, what’s your exit number?


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[Romeojk]

Originally Posted by 7sins

lol. Or throw in LVS. Depends how much Macau exposure you want.



OKAY BOYS, MARK THIS POST. I AM GOING TO DIAL THIS UP A NOTCH.

If AUPH gets bought out at $55 or more (rather realistic, I think that is a ~$8B val), at whatever point in time, I will fly 5 of you out for our TRF vegas trip on me. Or we can rendezvous in LA then I will charter us a plane to LVS.

B, you might need a new threshold for Vegas, or if it goes at $55 you'll need a bigger plane to bring more people along.


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[7sins]

Originally Posted by MrGoat

I don’t remember the exact number.

That being said, what’s your exit number?


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I typically trim along the way up, I plan to start taking gains in small increments at $15 and $18 then will see where we settle after that. If we get close to $25-30 I would completely exit the position. Close $9.11 today, nice 103% run the last two weeks. I believe markets are expensive atm so not like I want to use the gains to re-deploy elsewhere anyways, if anything would initiate puts on broad indexes.

Originally Posted by Romeojk

B, you might need a new threshold for Vegas, or if it goes at $55 you'll need a bigger plane to bring more people along.


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Haha $55 would be incredible but I think a stretch based on my modeling, company should be worth $3.5-$4B on the higher end based on current commercialization and trajectory. Either way, there will be a weekend in Vegas to celebrate eventually!

The slides from their recent presentation at JPM are quite compelling IMO: https://ir.auriniapharma.com/presentations.

* Should be profitable later this year and have $390M in cash, no need for dilution
*New patient conversion at 85% to start the treatment which is VERY high. *Only tapped in a very small part of the LN market, 2-5% of market potential realized so far which creates meaningful opportunity for a large BP to better commercialize the product. IMO makes most sense for GSK as their Benlysta product just went off patent Jan 1 this year and they have the majority of the LN marketshare even though their drug is massively inferior.
* More royalties in 2023
* Japan and Asia approval anytime expected
* IPR 60 day order to dismiss is issued, this takes out the majority of the uncertainty with the stock

The majority of the pain should be in the rear view mirror, RSI is running very high so short of any major news I suspect we consolidate a bit before we could move higher. Cheers everyone, have a great weekend. B

[330ci]

BBBY, anyone making any plays?

[jaisonline]

Originally Posted by 330ci

BBBY, anyone making any plays?

Spending their -20% coupons ASAP.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by m j b

SABR though, I should have bought (totally forgot about it) after 7's reccy.

RTMOP:

I did, finally, follow his recommendation (and of course, my own DD) and bought some SABR. And then added to it. It's done nicely since then, thanks B!

[cartesian Product]

I have no business playing the stock market so I don’t.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by 330ci

BBBY, anyone making any plays?

OMG, it's up 22% this morning? What is wrong with these people???

I am sooooooooooooooooooo tempted to short this POS.

Update: Can't short it (no inventory). Bought puts instead.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by m j b

OMG, it's up 22% this morning? What is wrong with these people???

I am sooooooooooooooooooo tempted to short this POS.

Update: Can't short it (no inventory). Bought puts instead.

Short squeeze or bankruptcy.


I was up 20% overnight and pulled out +4% when I had made that post. It dropped 20% or so right after.

It's a coin toss with lots of money to be made. Unfortunately past my risk threshold at this point.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by 330ci

It's a coin toss with lots of money to be made. Unfortunately past my risk threshold at this point.

Yeah, I jumped out. Made enough to buy lunch.

[330ci]

Originally Posted by m j b

Yeah, I jumped out. Made enough to buy lunch.

Personally I think the news of a buyout and bankruptcy right as its about to skyrocket is media manipulation.

Apparently they should be able to survive the year. But with a $400M market cap, its just too easy to be manipulated and I've donated enough to investment bankers funds.

Will be fun to watch from the side lines though. I hope there's some nice gains posted on WSB, but something tells me there's going to be far more loss porn

[Mifune]

The fact that Elon Musk is a founder of OpenAI, which is the maker of ChatGPT seems to be glossed over.

- PayPal
- Tesla
- SpaceX
- Neuralink
- Boring Company
- OpenAI

This means that Elon has averaged a multi-billion dollar company every ~ 5 years for 3 decades...

Add to that, the creation of Bitcoin.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by m j b

RTMOP:

I did, finally, follow his recommendation (and of course, my own DD) and bought some SABR. And then added to it. It's done nicely since then, thanks B!

You are welcome, remember to trim gains and take profits as the stock rises. I think you will get plenty of buying opportunities this year.

[7sins]

Sharing an idea on a trade I initiated this morning as a hedge against my long positions. Always open to feedback and constructive thoughts if I am missing something here. I feel with SP500 @ 4050 we are pricing in near perfection. Precovid SPY was 3350 when inflation was meaningfully under control sub 2% and rates were at zero which gave companies significant accessibility to inexpensive capital. SP500 is up 628bp for the month of January, a monster start for the index which I believe is unjustified given the uncertainty and contributed partially due to money being put to work from pension funds and institutions, this is why you are seeing many of the beaten up stocks from last year on a rise YTD. In addition, the market is pricing in the FED becoming more dovish towards the end of the year with rate cuts which I don't see plausible. I believe not pricing in china reopening is an oversight as that should push the demand for commodities higher causing inflation to be stickier and the FED to keep the terminal rate at 5%. 25bp rate hike today and then another 25bp in March then keep rates unchanged, this IMO will structurally break the economy and cause a slide when the market transitions from a FED pivot to a FED pause.

With all of that being said, it is hard to fathom we hold at these elevated levels with sp500 forward multiple at 20 amidst an earnings recession. I put the below trade on in all of my portfolios this morning. Implementation of 50% today prior to the FED commentary where I think it will not be as dovish as anticipated given all the indication from the FED prior. Then leaving the remaining 50% to DCA should my timing be off and will add if sp500 hits 4200 and 4400. To visually illustrate, see the JPM chart below with intra year troughs, EVERY year you see the market had a negative trough while calendar year returns were often positive. This IMO creates a temporary dislocation and buying opportunity, waiting for the market to soften then roll this bear position into less expensive and more fair valued equities. I liken this to my bearish trade on the USD a few weeks back here which was very profitable.

Below is my spy bear trade to hedge my existing portfolio and taking advantage of very low IV in the puts as market sentiment has turned bullish YTD. A traditional core and satellite approach with the core used to offset vol should the leverage run away from me to the upside.

core: 50% SPY 1x bear SPDN
satellite: 25% spy 3x bear SPXSS
satellite: 25% SPY PUT Jan 2024 $410P - IV here is unusually low at 14.5%, b/e by year end is 3850 on sp500, roughly a 7% decline from where we are now and would put spy flat ytd with a 11 month runway. I contemplated the Jan 2025 but those were almost 50% more.

As always, THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE, don't trust strangers on the internet etc just sharing an idea that I believe at one point this year will come to fruition given the recent YTD runup. For those still riding AUPH with me, I would look to write covered calls on a portion of your stock, the IV on April 21 calls $15C is 130%, there is a ton of premium to collect and can lower your cost basis. If within the next 2 months the stock reaches $15, you still make 50% on your underlying plus the substantial income the calls generated.

[macrowatch]

FWIW most of my contacts in all over asia (SE/South/N) are all anecdotally reporting gangbusters momentum with SE Asia strongest of the pack. For sure china revenging spending is part of the boost.

On the options stuff, will drop you a message later when it's not your super early morning coffee time.

[HHIslander]

Great read about Jim Cramer. Pulls no punches.

https://thespectator.com/topic/jim-c...sus-the-world/

[7sins]

Few interesting charts and thoughts I have been reading over the weekend supporting a bear market rally thesis.





From fear to greed in ONE month lol.



and to put a nice little bow on this:


And all of this is taking place while sales growth of S&P 500 companies (above) continues to shift in the wrong direction. None of this supporting the rally we have seen YTD, some food for thought

[Magnum75]

B, thanks for sharing your thoughts again. I'm curious though, why such a long runway with the SPY puts?

[7sins]

Originally Posted by Magnum75

B, thanks for sharing your thoughts again. I'm curious though, why such a long runway with the SPY puts?

You're welcome Timing the expiration is incredibly difficult, additionally the closer you get to expiration you get theta decay (ie the value of the options drops dramatically as you have less day to expiry). This gives me a 11 month runway for my thesis of a regression to the means to normalize and for the full effect of the FED tightening to trickle through the economy which could transpire in the latter half of this year. Should my thesis materialize earlier, I will sell the puts long before expiration and roll them into less expensive stocks. Being more aggressive with shorter dated puts would provide more upside but I am willing to forgo a bit of the upside to have more time before the market corrects as well as participate in IV expansion in the option chain.

[Drake20]

Damn I can’t believe this


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[SDGT3]

I'm with you B, I think the market is frothy at this point and valuations high considering forward EPS. Equity markets are not believing the Fed, whilst the bond market is turning around and believing. Six month Tbills now paying 5.07%

Still keeping powder dry for entry points into risk assets, but in the meantime laddering Tbills and bonds with zero risk seems prudent. The munis we picked up have unrealized gains while throwing off triple tax free income. Rolling with the punches, taking what the defense gives us and all the other overused sayings.

[7sins]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I'm with you B, I think the market is frothy at this point and valuations high considering forward EPS. Equity markets are not believing the Fed, whilst the bond market is turning around and believing. Six month Tbills now paying 5.07%

Still keeping powder dry for entry points into risk assets, but in the meantime laddering Tbills and bonds with zero risk seems prudent. The munis we picked up have unrealized gains while throwing off triple tax free income. Rolling with the punches, taking what the defense gives us and all the other overused sayings.

Couldn't agree with you more my friend, markets can only stay irrational for so long before regression to the means occur. Muni yield curve is now inverted, big move across the curve this month as treasury to muni spreads tighten due to large new issuance for February, would anticipate this for the rest of the month. AAA 1yr muni up 65bp MTD, now over 3% tax free and BBB spreads remain still at 2X historical average at 125bp. Plenty of good options for short term money, finally income in fixed income.

[enjoythemusic]

Friendly heads up, the new Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF (ticker SJIM) is live I think.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Friendly heads up, the new Inverse Cramer Tracker ETF (ticker SJIM) is live I think.

Tuttle is hilarious

I got into SARK last year and it helped take the sting out of everything else that was crapping out.