Talking Stocks 2.0

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by SDGT3

I agree, the Fed has 2 mandates and SVB appears to be an outlier in the way they mismanaged their bank. There may be a few more similar banks out there, but the fact remains that inflation is still at a 40 year high and employment is at historic lows.

The emergency meeting the Fed had today leads me to believe the .5% hike is off the table and .25% may or may not be on the table. I don't think there is a pivot to lower rates but raising clearly opens up more institutions to liquidity risk so the Fed has to tread lightly moving forward.

I suspect the hiking was to continue until the cracks emerged all along. Peel the onion and spackle the cracks.

[SDGT3]

Two executives at doomed Silicon Valley Bank had previously worked at a pair of notoriously troubled financial giants — the now-shuttered Lehman Brothers and the scandal-scarred Deutsche Bank.

The employment records of SVB executives Joseph Gentile and Kim Olson raised eyebrows on social media after the tech lender’s rapid meltdown prompted fears of a systemic economic crisis. The feds were forced to bail out SVB on Sunday to restore public confidence in the banking sector.

Gentile serves as chief administrative officer of SVB Securities, a standalone investment bank wholly owned by parent company SVB Financial. But prior to taking that role in 2007, Gentile was the chief financial officer for Lehman Brothers’ Global Investment Bank.

Lehman Brothers was a Wall Street giant until it collapsed into Chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008. The firm’s implosion had a devastating impact on the US economy and was a key factor in the economic turmoil of the Great Recession.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by m j b

And sure 'nuf, a couple of hours later, now that the imbalances have settled out and trading resumes, all the markets are up, I'm green on all of these trades. It's no great "I can buy a new PM Rolex now" profit, but at least I'm up!

LOL. So, to recap, I bought some SOFI and FRC yesterday (pre-market) as a short-term trade, to catch the bounce on the oversold. Both are, AFAIK, financially secure and just caught up in the general bank stock malaise.

As the day progressed, trading was halted numerous times in FRC. I never make a bet like this on something that I can't afford to lose, I'm not putting in the kids' college fund or my retirement here, just "fun money". OK, maybe a bit more than I'm comfortable with, but hey...

I bought FRC around 30, and at one point it hit 42. I put in a sell order at 42.50 or something silly like that, and it never got filled. It closed at 31. Don't I feel stupid! Trying for that extra 50 cents, I totally missed the trade. Greedy.

So last night, thinking about it, this is just a short-term trade, no point in trying to squeeze the last dime out of it, and I won't miss that opportunity again tomorrow.

I did, also, BTW, just for giggles, sell some covered calls on it and then closed the position about 20 minutes later for a little profit. That makes me happy. Yes, enough money to buy a beer, but it's a profit, right?

This morning I checked and FRC was hovering around 45, so I said "I'm going to take my money and run!" and so I did. It's now around 46. I expect extreme volatility in this puppy, so I may get in and out again some more today if work doesn't distract me too much.

It's not enough to buy me a new Rolex, but in the sea of red that is my portfolio, a win is always a welcome experience.

I'm up in SOFI pre-market, but just barely enough to buy lunch. I'll probably close that position as well.

[beshannon]

I picked up SCHW at 46 and AXP at 158

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I picked up SCHW at 46 and AXP at 158

I bought some Truist in the low 30s. Will look at MS today.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by scarlet knight

I bought some Truist in the low 30s. Will look at MS today.

I have been holding MS for quite a while now, very good bank.

This entire situation repeats istelf over and over in all sectors of the market.

I bought JPM back during the London whale loss and have a 9.7% yield on cost and have made 400% on my position.

There are some great opportunities right now, this is a great trading environment

[m j b]

Well, now it looks like Credit Suisse might be having issues, bringing down the pre-market futures and bank stocks as well.

That's a big bank. Kind of concerning.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by m j b

Well, now it looks like Credit Suisse might be having issues, bringing down the pre-market futures and bank stocks as well.

That's a big bank. Kind of concerning.

they've been in trouble for a while, especially after the bill hwang debacle back in 2021 when he got a 15b margin call. they're also constantly involved in controversies and scandals so their future was never bright. i imagine they get help given their size and the fact that they're a european bank though

i worked there for a year and was right at the time they got a new ceo, he eventually resigned because of a spying scandal with UBS lmao. total shitshow over there

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by m j b

Well, now it looks like Credit Suisse might be having issues, bringing down the pre-market futures and bank stocks as well.

That's a big bank. Kind of concerning.

They have been in trouble for a long time and it has never been a secret. Time to let the zombie companies die.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by m j b

Well, now it looks like Credit Suisse might be having issues, bringing down the pre-market futures and bank stocks as well.

That's a big bank. Kind of concerning.

Don’t you mean WAS a big bank?

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by huncho

they've been in trouble for a while, especially after the bill hwang debacle back in 2021 when he got a 15b margin call. they're also constantly involved in controversies and scandals so their future was never bright. i imagine they get help given their size and the fact that they're a european bank though

i worked there for a year and was right at the time they got a new ceo, he eventually resigned because of a spying scandal with UBS lmao. total shitshow over there

Thats interesting, I have heard whispers for years it's a toxic unstable environment. They won't be on their own.

[superdog]

These days, it feels all I read is about the economy. Clearly, that’s my choice. I get it.

But Ive come to a conclusion. No one knows. Everything I read is like a ping pong match. Half the commenters blame one administration the other half blame the other administration.

The talking heads are all over the place. There are hundreds of articles a day. Dozens of programs. And they all contradict each other, and themselves, over even short periods of time.

Do some get it right? Of course. But it appears to me it’s because even one of Paul’s broken clocks is right twice a day.

The expert, has an inverse etf betting against him. Not sure anyone in the game gets better data. And he has zero clue.

Yellen is about to go live to call everyone down. To explain the banking system is solvent. Yeah. Right. She has no clue either. She’s simply hoping for the best while works governments scramble to prop up the house of cards.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by superdog

These days, it feels all I read is about the economy. Clearly, that’s my choice. I get it.

But Ive come to a conclusion. No one knows. Everything I read is like a ping pong match. Half the commenters blame one administration the other half blame the other administration.

The talking heads are all over the place. There are hundreds of articles a day. Dozens of programs. And they all contradict each other, and themselves, over even short periods of time.

Do some get it right? Of course. But it appears to me it’s because even one of Paul’s broken clocks is right twice a day.

The expert, has an inverse etf betting against him. Not sure anyone in the game gets better data. And he has zero clue.

Yellen is about to go live to call everyone down. To explain the banking system is solvent. Yeah. Right. She has no clue either. She’s simply hoping for the best while works governments scramble to prop up the house of cards.

agreed, 2022 has shown that there are no "experts". everyone got killed

[beshannon]

Looking at XLF and KBE

Added to JPM this morning

[vitalsigns]

Originally Posted by superdog

Yellen is about to go live to call everyone down. To explain the banking system is solvent. Yeah. Right. She has no clue either. She’s simply hoping for the best while works governments scramble to prop up the house of cards.

In the immortal words of Jean-Claud Junker, then President of the Eurozone group of finance ministers, during the eurozone crisis:

"When it becomes serious you have to lie."

Even if they had a clue (they don't -- see Hayek's "The Fatal Conceit"), they would lie to prevent contagion.

Also see Bernanke's infamous quote in 2007 that the subprime mortgage crisis:

"...[is] likely to be contained."

Maybe it will be contained this time...I don't know. But the knock-on effects of constant bail-outs without meaningful reform are terrible.

Bernanke, Yellen, et al. (starting in earnest with Greenspan, but really going back to Nixon's closing of the gold window in the 70s), have presided over the mass financialization of the economy to the detriment of the real production of goods and services.

They pledge that price fixing doesn't work due to the misallocation of scarce resources (Economics 101) yet ardently fix the price of perhaps the most important commodity in the economy: money.

And so we go from crisis to crisis. And the average Joe and his family see real wages decline year over year since the 70s. Housing out of reach for average families. The costs of college expanding to reach the size of available student debt (i.e., gigantic). Etc...

A really bad situation.

[INC]

Originally Posted by vitalsigns

In the immortal words of Jean-Claud Junker, then President of the Eurozone group of finance ministers, during the eurozone crisis:

"When it becomes serious you have to lie."

That was his only sane moment. In the rest of his life, he was insane.

[EEpro]

[vitalsigns]

Originally Posted by INC

That was his only sane moment. In the rest of his life, he was insane.

Saying the quiet part out loud.

[Mifune]

Originally Posted by EEpro

The FED should just go vertical integration and lend direct...

[m j b]

Holy smokes. If you want to make some money, and have cojonnes the size of a grapefruit, do some trading in FRC.

I bought some (see post above) Tuesday around 29, sold it in the mid 40s yesterday before the market opened, it went a bit higher (48 I think) and then closed around 32. Today it opened down and stayed around the low 20s until about 20 minutes ago when it climbed back into the 30s and now with trading halted, who knows?

I almost bought calls on it before lunch, but figured that I was risking too much on a potential nightmare, but that's all hindsight.

This stock was over 100 last week before SVB.

Anyway, just sayin'... there's money to be made here. It's also likely that there's money to be lost here, so put on your big boy pants before you jump in.

[Mifune]

WOW... First Republic Bank up from the 19's to mid 30's intra day

[Mifune]

Jesus... I wish Kevin Oleary would just disappear.

No one care what you have to say KO.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by m j b

Holy smokes. If you want to make some money, and have cojonnes the size of a grapefruit, do some trading in FRC.

I bought some (see post above) Tuesday around 29, sold it in the mid 40s yesterday before the market opened, it went a bit higher (48 I think) and then closed around 32. Today it opened down and stayed around the low 20s until about 20 minutes ago when it climbed back into the 30s and now with trading halted, who knows?

I almost bought calls on it before lunch, but figured that I was risking too much on a potential nightmare, but that's all hindsight.

This stock was over 100 last week before SVB.

Anyway, just sayin'... there's money to be made here. It's also likely that there's money to be lost here, so put on your big boy pants before you jump in.

sounds an awful lot like a casino.

[m j b]

Originally Posted by superdog

sounds an awful lot like a casino.

It is, but without the free drinks.

[INC]

Originally Posted by superdog

sounds an awful lot like a casino.

Good analogy. However in a casino, at least you always know who will win in the end :) But now on the stock market it seems uncertain whether there will be even a single winner.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by m j b

It is, but without the free drinks.

used to be my favorite part.

[superdog]

Originally Posted by INC

Good analogy. However in a casino, at least you always know who will win in the end :) But now on the stock market it seems uncertain whether there will be even a single winner.

seriously.

[enjoythemusic]

If this was 2007 to early 2008 there'd be a Friday 3:40pm announcement on CNBC that move markets into the green.

[beshannon]

Started positions in BAC this morning

[scarlet knight]

Originally Posted by beshannon

Started positions in BAC this morning

Throwing darts at the dart board. Buy when there is blood in the street. But is it bloody enough yet?

I did hear that $15 billion in deposits flowed into BAC. But they hold alot of low interest rate bonds that are underwater.

I am always tempted to buy Citigroup, but it never works out for me. .